UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

[Paradoxical]

Yep. I did. If and when I become concerned with foolish things like virus names, I'll read it.

You could get a badly needed education. You know, schooled in why the media hides things from the lemmings.

 

[Michael Cole]

You could get a badly needed education. You know, schooled in why the media hides things from the lemmings.

:lamo

I'm educated, thanks. I'm also in my 60s. As you get older, you learn what is and what isn't important in life. That education is a ways off for you, but don't lose hope.

 

[roberthughey]

Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase

New York may be weeks away from reaching a peak in coronavirus cases. Now other states are preparing for surges.

New York may be weeks away from reaching a peak in coronavirus cases. Now other states are preparing for surges - CNN

 

[Paradoxical]

:lamo

I'm educated, thanks. I'm also in my 60s. As you get older, you learn what is and what isn't important in life. That education is a ways off for you, but don't lose hope.

Learning what ostriches do is not a education.

 

[Visbek]

No, the goalposts weren't moved. Today's prediction was just in keeping with the current trends. I explained the 3-31 was an error where I skipped four days by accident. You read that explanation, so don't lie.

lol... No, you're just full of ****.

You told us explicitly and proudly to "Remember Mashmont's predictions, people. Only 10,400 deaths, max. Only 130,000 COVID cases, max." We'll likely be at 130,000 cases by Sunday.

When you "fixed your accident," you also added around 20,000 cases to your prediction for 3/27. Here's what you've predicted so far, and how badly you've blown some of your predictions:




Even if we take you at your word -- a level of trust you have not earned -- that you messed up the dates, then this is what you originally predicted:




And of course, you're only making 3 days of prediction, which makes it easy for you to keep moving the goalposts. Surely a true "Math Wonk" can tell us, based purely on his mathematical formula, how long it will take for the number of new cases to fall to zero....

 

[Visbek]

It's fun when you're right so often!

Dude? You've been wrong about every single prediction you've made.

 

[Michael Cole]

Learning what ostriches do is not a education.

So, now you care about ostriches. LMFAO. Quit digging, Paradoxical.

I DON'T GIVE TWO ****S ABOUT VIRUS NAMES.

Clear? That you and Trump do care is a huge mystery to me.

 

[Manc Skipper]

You're right. I don't much care about or for your stuffy country anyway.

You just can't let it go though...

 

[Paradoxical]

New York may be weeks away from reaching a peak in coronavirus cases. Now other states are preparing for surges.

New York may be weeks away from reaching a peak in coronavirus cases. Now other states are preparing for surges - CNN

New York has wayyyy too many people in a small area. All those condos, high rises and apartments squeezed together like sardines?? This is natures way of saying there are too many humans in one spot. Humans should learn from this. The more densely populated we become, the more susceptible we are to the flu and viruses.

PS. I expect liberals to say this post is callous and mean.

 

[Paradoxical]

You just can't let it go though...

Sure I can. I really don't give your country that much thought other than laughing at the clowns on BBC. When I think CNN and MSNBC here is bad, all I gotta do is watch the ridiculous "news" people on the BBC. It's no wonder your country is in such a mess with their continual indoctrination. Does BBC stand for Britain Communist Control network?

 

[eohrnberger]

Big liberals love high taxation and wasteful spending.

True.
However, there's quite a bit of spending which comes from the GOP side, who are supposed to be representing conservatism, including fiscal and WRT government power and intervention.

 

[Paradoxical]

True.
However, there's quite a bit of spending which comes from the GOP side, who are supposed to be representing conservatism, including fiscal and WRT government power and intervention.

I agree.

 

[eohrnberger]

Not really.

But just for fun, if we want to address the deficit, then let's reverse the ridiculous corporate tax cut and raise the upper tax brackets from 32 to 35%, 35 to 38%, and 37 to 40%.

And add a new bracket for income over $50 million at 50%.

Also cut the estate tax (the "earn it yourself tax") exemption in half.

Want to get serious? Let's get serious.

I'm still not understanding why these items are in the CoronoVirus response legislation just signed into law:

• $25 million in the Senate bill went to the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. During the past ten years, the center received $68.3 million in federal grants (2010-2019). The Kennedy Center has total assets of $557 million. The Pelosi bill earmarked $35 million.
• $75 million in the Senate bill funded the Corporation For Public Broadcasting. Why do National Public Radio and Big Bird get a coronavirus subsidy? The Pelosi bill allocated $300 million.
• $1.2 billion in the Pelosi bill to require airlines to purchase expensive “renewable” jet fuel. It was $200 million per year in grants (2021-2026) to “develop, transport, and store sustainable aviation fuels that would reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.” The Senate bill eliminated this provision.

• $250 million to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The subsidy would cover “taxpayer services,” “enforcement,” and “operations support.” The Pelosi bill provided $602 million.
• $350 million to the State Department for “migration and Refugee Assistance.” This funding would help minimize the virus spread among vulnerable populations. The Pelosi bill earmarked $300 million.
• $400 million to the federal Election Assistance Commission to assist the states with “election security grants.” The Pelosi bill provided $4 billion.

Is There Wasteful Spending In The Coronavirus Stimulus Bill?

Yeah, let's get serious.

 

[Mithros]

Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase

Hmm.. let’s see how this compares to your previous prediction. You said 81,000 cases on the 31st. We’re well over 100k on the 27th. It doesn’t look like you have any idea what you’re talking about. You’re not even close.

We’ve been growing consistently doubling every three days or 10x every 8 days. We had a slightly higher rate briefly because of a surge in tests. There is no reason to suspect that the upcoming week will differ significantly from the previous. Maybe it will take 9-10 days to increase by a factor of 10.

Doubling is a 100% increase. You’re predicting the rate of increase to cut in half in 4-5 days. This is why trump supporters cannot be trusted with other people’s lives or money.

Note. Predictions are in red. They have not happened yet.


3-Day: Cases Beg: Cases End:


Mar 18-21 6332 19862 313% increase
Mar 19-22 9572 27021 282% increase
Mar 20-23 14312 35409 247% increase
Mar 21-24 19862 46158 232% increase
Mar 22-25 27021 54428 201% increase
Mar 23-26 35409 66710 190% increase
Mar 27-30 46158 78468 170% increase
Mar 28-31 54428 81642 150% increase

Remember Mashmont's predictions, people. Only 10,400 deaths, max. Only 130,000 COVID cases, max. This wouldn't make a garden variety flu season. Can you say hoax?

 

[prometeus]

Mashmont's prediction two days ago:

"Remember Mashmont's predictions, people. Only 10,400 deaths, max. Only 130,000 COVID cases, max. This wouldn't make a garden variety flu season. Can you say hoax?"

I remember some genius saying 100,000...

 

[Mashmont]

Hmm.. let’s see how this compares to your previous prediction. You said 81,000 cases on the 31st. We’re well over 100k on the 27th. It doesn’t look like you have any idea what you’re talking about. You’re not even close.

We’ve been growing consistently doubling every three days or 10x every 8 days. We had a slightly higher rate briefly because of a surge in tests. There is no reason to suspect that the upcoming week will differ significantly from the previous. Maybe it will take 9-10 days to increase by a factor of 10.

Doubling is a 100% increase. You’re predicting the rate of increase to cut in half in 4-5 days. This is why trump supporters cannot be trusted with other people’s lives or money.

The first graph left off four days. I've explained that numerous times, yet you people still refer to it. People are slow. I get it.

 

[jpn]

Get serious? Yeah, sure. We have way too many jobs and far too high a job demand. So lets kills that, so that more can be unemployed.

Tax changes usually have minimal effect on the economy because the economy is so much bigger than the various tax amounts. Also, people aren't going to materially change their behavior due to a few percentage point difference in their taxes.

The Democrats raised taxes in 1993. Republicans promised "job killer!" Recession! Depression! Instead the economy boomed.

This is a good analysis of the economic effect of past big tax changes by Politico.

 

[zyzygy]

Mashmont fails again.

 

[jpn]

I remember some genius saying 100,000...

I remember saying by the end of the year...Not quite there yet...

 

[snakestretcher]

Sure I can. I really don't give your country that much thought other than laughing at the clowns on BBC. When I think CNN and MSNBC here is bad, all I gotta do is watch the ridiculous "news" people on the BBC. It's no wonder your country is in such a mess with their continual indoctrination. Does BBC stand for Britain Communist Control network?

And just when I thought your posts couldn't get any more puerile. Yet here we are...

 

[jpn]

See, this proves you don't care about the results. You just want to focus on typos. Leftwingers are always dishonest. Why is that?

Every post, sounds more like Trump.

Both are frustrated that they have been so wrong, so publicly.

 

[Mashmont]

Every post, sounds more like Trump.

Both are frustrated that they have been so wrong, so publicly.

Let's see what you say when your one million US cases 100,000 deaths claim comes up ridiculously short

 

[weaver2]

Aw, don't be sore at Mash just because Trump has handled this virus better than asleep-at-the-wheel 0bummer did H1N1.

Barack, take note of a master at work.

All the CDC pandemic study groups, all the epidemiological liaison personnel, all the international health coordination groups that were essential for early detection, national and international cooperation, development of vaccine, and national preparedness were put in place by the Obama administration. Trump disbanded or defunded all of them.

Nature bats last.

 

[Paradoxical]

I remember some genius saying 100,000...

According to the CDC, for the FLU season of last year, 34,000 people die from the flu every year in America. They claim that 8% get sick from the flue. That would be about 2 and a half million people. They do not give monthly totals and for the purpose of this post, I will divide by 12 to get a monthly total which would be 2833 deaths per month and 210,000 sickened.

We have 4 months gone this year, so if this were the flu, there would 11,332 people dead right now, and 840,000 that were sickened
As of this minute on the "worldometers.com" site, they list 1717 people dead and 105,019 sickened

What am I missing here?

 

[Decypher]

Sure I can. I really don't give your country that much thought other than laughing at the clowns on BBC. When I think CNN and MSNBC here is bad, all I gotta do is watch the ridiculous "news" people on the BBC. It's no wonder your country is in such a mess with their continual indoctrination. Does BBC stand for Britain Communist Control network?

BBC is centrist. Both left and right accuse it of bias which usually indicates a new source is fairly neutral. The UK is the way it is because it’s had a conservative government for a decade who has imposed austerity and pursued Brexit. You see countries tend to be the way they are because of how they’re governed, not by what the media reports on.