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We're talking Texas here. Nationally, here:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Nationally the polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by three points, she won it by two. Well withing the margin of error of plus or minus three points. Electoral college, the polls gave Hillary 203 electoral votes to Trump's 164 with 171 in the tossup category.
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House
So basically the polls were calling the race a tossup. Popular vote with the margin of error meant a tie to Hillary being 6 points a head. She won the popular by two points. Electoral college wise, the polls called it a tossup.
This was supposed to be in response to your post #80.
Democratic turnout in 2010, 2014, and 2016 was pathetic, along with short coattails for Obama in 2012. gops have a tremendous advantage in state legislatures that will rewrite the 99 state maps and 43 federal maps. This includes PA, OH, MI, IA, WI, GA, FL, AZ, TX and so many more. Sound familiar?!
Repubs are currently shoring up their base with what I call their JAGGGID approach — Judges, Abortion, Guns, God, Gays, Immigration and Deregulation. Keep an eye on so-called digital genius Brad Parscale. He’s running the re-election and currently after six Clinton states, especially MN and VA.
All 43 House seats flipped by Democrats in 2018 were in swing CDs, immediately making them in play in 2020. House gop ‘motions to recommit’ are making them take tough votes. The only 3 seats flipped by the gop are solid, and there are many more Dem seats other than the 43 that are swingy. Pelosi knows this, so it’s one day at a time with her, trump and the House investigations.
Inside elections and others have ratings for the Senate, House, and Governor. They’re worth looking at. I haven’t broken down ballotpedia for state legislatures yet, though they’re ‘one’ of the real prizes, for remapping.
All 9 gop Senate flips in 2014 are obviously up for re-election. I’d say Ernst is safe. DEMs are cutting each other up in CO. Indys and Dems have always split against Collins. Tillis is probably in trouble if Dems have a good candidate.
As for Dem seats, we’ll see who runs against Jones. The gop has a good candidate in Michigan. Overall, all the oxygen is being sucked up by the potus election, with little attention to issues DEMs won on in 2018. At this point, McConnell is still by far the most powerful man in this nation, behind the scenes.