Wrlcome to the board then.
I have another word for somebody who accepts everything that China says hook-line-sinker, and that is "Chinese Fanboy". But let me address your items one at a time, and you will hopefully see what I mean. I am also giving "Reader's Digest" versions, since I have covered most os these topics in-depth in previous threads.
And also, I do not know what you mean by "long time", but does it approach 30 years? If not, I think I got you beat then.
The DF-21D is a joke. And yes, we have precise knowledge of it's range, altitude, speed, accuracy, and flight characteristics. After all, it is just another variant of the 25 year old DF-21 series MRBM.
First of all, the stupid concept in the first place of a nuclear armed nation deciding to use a conventional missile is one of the stupidest things ever thought of. There is a very good reason why decades ago both the US and USSR decided to remove all nuclear warheads from cruise missiles, and all conventional warheads from ballistic missiles. It is because that way neither side would confuse one or the other with a nuclear strike, and launch WWIII by accident. If it was a cruise missile, it was conventional. If it was a ballistic missile, it was nuclear. Plain and simple. The only nations that have not followed this convention are those without nuclear warheads in the first place (Iraq).
Then there is the entire concept of trying to "aim" a ballistic missile falling at MACH 5+ onto a moving target that it can not seen a little bit bigger then 1,000 feet by 250 feet. Just the idea is absolutely silly. Because if they are even 0.001% off, they are going to have a total miss. They have no way to acquire the target, no way to track the target, no way to lock onto the target, and no way of avoiding the massive amounts of interceptors that every Destroyer and Cruiser is going to be throwing at it long before it gets within striking distance.
This "system" (and they admit large parts of it do not even exist yet) is totally untested, but I admit the concept is sound. It might work if firing at a ship tied up along a warf, but not under power on the open sea.
And the very fact of launching this, you have a
very serious risk of the US launching a nuclear response in return. China is not a partner to any of the US-USSR-Russian missile treaties, and this shows. Not even the Soviets would have been stupid enough to try a weapon of this type, knowing that the moment it is launched (and the DF-21 is designed to carry a nuclear payload), they risk a very unexpected return gift.
Tonnage means exactly nothing. Most of their navy is ancient, made up of designs first made by the Soviets in the 1950's! And this class was considered a failure (only 1 was built), so they sold the plans to the Chinese.
Look at the Type 051 series, their most common destroyer. This is a 1970's Chinese made variant of a 1950's era Soviet destroyer (the Neustrashimy class). Then you have the Type 052, an upgrade to the Type 051. But the interesting thing to consider is that most of the major components (RADAR, engines, electronics) are of US and European manufacture. Basically only yhe hull is Chinese made.
What China has is a lot of old ships, and very small. Their largest ships are destroyers, and they have only 25 of them. The US has 61 destroyers of a single class (Arleigh Burke), the oldest of which is 2 decades newer then the Type 051.
Then you have Frigates, China has 47 of them, most of them based on the old Soviet Riga Frigates (circa 1952). The US has 25 of the Oliver Hazard Perry class Frigate, a much more modern design (the US has been phasing out Frigates for decades).
Then there are the larger ships, the Cruisers. China has exactly zero cruisers. The US has 22, all the formidable Ticonderoga class.
So yea, it is easy to say they "have tonnage". The US has tonnage also, if you count the mothball fleets as well. The ships that China regularly uses are older then ships the US tows out as targets for gunnery and missile practice.
Well, first let's talk about the Cruiser. A "Chinese Cruiser" has been talked about since at least 2005. And even then they said it was going to be revealed "any day now". Here we are 7 years later, still waiting. But I decided to do some peeking, to see if you have seen something I missed. So I did some searches, and found absolutely nothing talking about imminant Chinese cruisers. So I would love to see your source for this.
Also I will admit, they do possess one cruiser. Their "Aircraft Carrier" is actually a class of ship that the Soviets called an "Aircraft Carrying Guided Missile Cruiser". So yes, they do have one cruiser, just no carrier.
And no, production on the J-15 (a Chinese copy of the Soviet Su-33) is not "well under way". They have what is estimated to be 2 prototypes currently undergoing testing. The Chinese acquired Su-33s from the Ukraine in 2001, and has been working on copying them for over a decade now. And as I stated, China is infamous for blowing deadlines for equipment deliveries by 5-10+ years. So expect to see groups of J-15s flying in 2012, I mean 2014, I mean 2015, I mean 2016... (and yes, the newest delivery date is now 2016).
The J-20 is not a bomber. And it's stealth ability is questionable. But no matter, it is not a bomber.
And the very large number of different models of Chinese tanks/aircraft/destroyers/frigates should tell you something. For decades now, Chinese military equipment has been in an almost constant state of prototyping. They make a new design, make a small number of them, then drop it and start on a new "best ever" model. Make a few of those, rinse and repeat.
Their tanks are the worst, but their fighters are not much better. They have more different models of fighters then Carter has little liver pills.
Yes, and your point here is? Gulf of Aden, the shallow waterway at the exit of the Red Sea, between Yemen and Somalia. This is not deep water, this is not "blue water". This is coastal water. So you have proven nothing that I have already said.
Actually, we know quite a bit about them. We also know a lot of them when they were still Soviet ships, and their own creations based off of Soviet designs.
And if you think it is all a secret, look at what I provided just a short time ago, satellite views of their major submarine base, with their subs obviously in a "long term parking" configuration. If I can do that with Google, do you think the US Navy can't do it with their classified birds?
And no, they are not venturing out all that much. They are still mostly sitting on the docks, doing very little.
And yes, I know about that incident. Also remember the carrier was steaming peacefully in open waters, and in no way on any kind of "wartime" condition. Put the carrier and it's task force on any kind of "war footing", and no sub is getting within 100 miles of the carrier. There will be so many sonobouys lurking and pinging that you can almost walk on them.
Well, I look forward to seeing your input in the future. FYI, I am a still serving military veteran, with over 10 years in Infantry (Marines), and 5 years in Missile Defense (PATRIOT). In fact, if you look up my handle here, it will become obvious where I got it from. So interestingly enough, most of this conversation actually talks about 2 of my specialties in the military. Missiles and Amphibious Operations.
I do not put down China, as much as not put them up on a pedistal as far to many do. I see long strings of cancelled projects, failed projects, projects that never deliver as promised, and projects that are way-way-way over the estimated delivery time.
I invite you to look into the ARJ-21. A Chinese copy of the DC-9, they purchased the rights to copy it and started work on it back in 2000. Then they promised to start construction in 2002, to have it in service by 2004. A Chinese made airframe, with US made engines and avionics.
Then the delivery date slipped to 2006, 2008, the prototype did not fly until 2008. Delivery by 2009, 2010, 2011, and
finally in 2012 they annouce they will start delivery in 2013.
I am not holding my breath for them to make that delivery date either.
FARNBOROUGH: ARJ21 first delivery pushed to end 2013
We might actually see these things in service by 2014. A decade after the original promised delivery date. And remember, China is only making the airframes. Engines and avionics (typically the most complicated parts of an aircraft) all come from the US.
