The people that elected Donald Trump are starting to pull their support

[code1211]

His core supporters will never admit that they were taken in by a con, and that's for sure. Twenty years from now, they'll still be convinced that the liberal media torpedoed his chance of making America great again.

But, there are those who mainly just voted for what the saw as the lesser of two evils, and are now re evaluating their position.

How could Trump fail to be losing support? The polls are sometimes wrong, but that one is pretty plausible, it seems to me.

And yet Rasmussen has him at a 50% approval rating.

His percent of the popular vote on election night was 46.4.

This is confusing. His supporters are jumping ship and yet his popularity is rising.

Go figure.

 

[Kobie]

And yet Rasmussen has him at a 50% approval rating.

His percent of the popular vote on election night was 46.4.

This is confusing. His supporters are jumping ship and yet his popularity is rising.

Go figure.

As evidenced in post 25, Rasmussen is pretty clearly an outlier.

 

[Slingshot Bob]

And the narrative rages on. The medias plan is to bombard the message non stop until it is perceived to be self evident.

A tree is known by it's fruits, not by what a talking head tells you.

 

[katzgar]

And yet Rasmussen has him at a 50% approval rating.

His percent of the popular vote on election night was 46.4.

This is confusing. His supporters are jumping ship and yet his popularity is rising.

Go figure.

your post is desperate

 

[Fletch]

the reich wing has never been enamored with tRump
my suspicion is that many of them now view our sitting president as a vulnerable obstacle to allowing their evangelical VP to assume the nation's highest office

Who is the reich wing?

 

[reinoe]

It doesn't. Period, end of story.

The rest of your post is spot on as well. :thumbs:

Exactly. These pollsters ask for the opinions of Republicans in places like San Francisco, Chicago, and Boston, and pretend that they reflect Republicans everywhere. It's very transparent and obviousl

 

[Perotista]

source
Trump's Latest Problem: His Base And Republicans Are Fleeing The President Amid Russia Controversy

If one believes in exit polls, half of those who voted for Trump were anti-Clinton voters. Not necessarily Trump supporters. They just didn't want Hillary Clinton in the White House. Do the math, 46% of the electorate voted for Trump. Half voted against Clinton, not for Trump per se, any Tom, Dick or Harry, even a Pataki would have done. That leaves 23% of the electorate who actually wanted him to become our next president.

Yes, independents who went for Trump 46-42 over Clinton last November, 12% voted third party. Have indeed dropped their support. Gallup showed 42% of the non-affiliated voter approving of Trump at the end of January, that is down to 31% today. YouGov showed a 48% approval rating for Trump at the end of January, that is down to 34% today. Most other polls which breakdown the parties are somewhere in-between the two. They never had Trump's approval as high as 48% or as low as 31%.

It's interesting to note that at the end of January only 8% of Democrats approved of Trump and today that is still 8%. No movement. Now Republican approval has dropped from 87% at the end of January down to 78% today. What is really interesting is that 25% of all Americans viewed or disliked both Trump and Clinton. Yet among this group Trump won it by a 47-30 margin over Clinton. Again, not votes for Trump as in they wanted him to sit in the White House, but more of a vote against Clinton.

It doesn't surprise me one bit that Trump's approval numbers continue to fall. I said as much many times last year leading up to the election. That regardless of who won, whomever would have a very hard time governing if that would be even possible. This is exactly what one would expect when the choice is between two candidates which 60% of all Americans or America as a whole didn't want either to occupy the Oval Office. One had to win being we have a two party system, perhaps that winner is actually a loser in the long run to include the political party he says he now belongs to.

 

[What if...?]

I don't believe in these polls. Actually I put little faith in most if not all polls simply because I can't see how sampling a thousand or so people actually reflects the totality of a society.

This is especially true as shown by the polls prior to and after the 2016 election. Yes, the polls reflected the samples collected...primarily in how people in New York and California voted; notably progressive-left majority populations.

That is the problem with polls; the collectors can skew the samples via all sorts of methods in order to project the narrative they are selling.

IMO the polls do not actually reflect how Trump's base voters feel. :shrug:

I know none of the people who voted for Trump where I live have changed their minds. I know all my friends who voted for him around the country have not changed their minds. I know my friends who voted against him have not changed their minds. Finally, the numbers discussed still seem to reflect the percentage of support leading to his election has not changed.

Not everyone in the Republican Party voted for him, and 47% of voters did not vote at all in the last election. These current poll numbers are just propaganda designed to try to convince people who continue to support him...to doubt and change their minds.

I'm not there yet. :coffeepap:

(EDIT): There is one thing I would like to add.

I agree that there are things I disagree with the President on, and I am sure that other people who voted for him also have certain issues. For example, at this point in time "Twitter" is not his friend.

However, I hesitate to raise any issues of concern because when dealing with #ResistTrump activists, giving an inch will inevitably lead to their taking a mile. To them everything his does is wrong, even when he does something they agree with (like his recent decision of the "Dreamers") they turn it into "see how Trump has betrayed you! Why do you still support him!"

I think that's the way most supporters feel. That if the Progressive-Left and their MSM allies were at all amenable to reason and rational discourse there could be things we could agree on.

But all-hate all-the-time, targeted at both Trump and his "deluded, idiot supporters?" Not a winning strategy. :no:

I think it is possible that the non-stop barrage of persuasive messaging from the left is being done to highlight persuasive messaging itself. The 400 pound gorilla in our society that nobody talks about.

You'll note that "persuasion" is what our intelligence agencies are referring to as the "interference" in our election perpetrated by Russia.

And that the communications teams on Trump's side are obfuscating this by issuing talking points demanding proof that votes were changed, for example. Or focusing on the Podesta "phishing". Never mentioning the "psyops" component. (Psyops being what our military calls the use of these techniques against our enemies.)

Also, don't forget that PR(persuasion)/lobbying for foreign governments is what Manafort and Flynn are in hot water for.

I believe it is possible that this is all about dragging the science of persuasion out on the rug for everybody to sniff. And I don't think the American people will respond well if that happens. I doubt anybody would approve of the constant barrage of preconscious manipulation we are constantly being subjected to.

 

[Linc]

If one believes in exit polls, half of those who voted for Trump were anti-Clinton voters. Not necessarily Trump supporters. They just didn't want Hillary Clinton in the White House. Do the math, 46% of the electorate voted for Trump. Half voted against Clinton, not for Trump per se, any Tom, Dick or Harry, even a Pataki would have done. That leaves 23% of the electorate who actually wanted him to become our next president.

Yes, independents who went for Trump 46-42 over Clinton last November, 12% voted third party. Have indeed dropped their support. Gallup showed 42% of the non-affiliated voter approving of Trump at the end of January, that is down to 31% today. YouGov showed a 48% approval rating for Trump at the end of January, that is down to 34% today. Most other polls which breakdown the parties are somewhere in-between the two. They never had Trump's approval as high as 48% or as low as 31%.

It's interesting to note that at the end of January only 8% of Democrats approved of Trump and today that is still 8%. No movement. Now Republican approval has dropped from 87% at the end of January down to 78% today. What is really interesting is that 25% of all Americans viewed or disliked both Trump and Clinton. Yet among this group Trump won it by a 47-30 margin over Clinton. Again, not votes for Trump as in they wanted him to sit in the White House, but more of a vote against Clinton.

It doesn't surprise me one bit that Trump's approval numbers continue to fall. I said as much many times last year leading up to the election. That regardless of who won, whomever would have a very hard time governing if that would be even possible. This is exactly what one would expect when the choice is between two candidates which 60% of all Americans or America as a whole didn't want either to occupy the Oval Office. One had to win being we have a two party system, perhaps that winner is actually a loser in the long run to include the political party he says he now belongs to.

As required by sourcing laws, the following Trafalgar Group poll was done for WXIA-TV Atlanta. Type in SurveyUSA Election Poll #233557 and search.

The poll has 8 questions broken down into multiple answers and several demographics. I saw at least three Politico articles today, the best one using the term 'nail-biter' that had the poll link with several quotes from the 2016 guru Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar.

These local polls certainly tell us more about the electorate than national polls, especially a group that only missed three states .

 

[justabubba]

Who is the reich wing?

mostly the same folks who comprise the alt:white movement. bannon's people

 

[Grand Mal]

You are joking, right?

No. You'r obviously not talking about the percentage that elected him, so what have I missed?

 

[Grand Mal]

Who is the reich wing?

The militant side of the right whinge.

 

[calamity]

I'm just surprised it has taken so long.

 

[Perotista]

As required by sourcing laws, the following Trafalgar Group poll was done for WXIA-TV Atlanta. Type in SurveyUSA Election Poll #233557 and search.

The poll has 8 questions broken down into multiple answers and several demographics. I saw at least three Politico articles today, the best one using the term 'nail-biter' that had the poll link with several quotes from the 2016 guru Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar.

These local polls certainly tell us more about the electorate than national polls, especially a group that only missed three states .

I seen where 77% of respondents said all these TV ads had no effect in determining their vote, no effect. That I think is a good thing. Then the local tax property tax reassessment, that has nothing to do with congress and all to do with local government. Go figure. With now close to 40 million dollars being spent on this runoff, I don't see it being useful as an indication for next years midterms. It is just a simple matter of which party buys the seat.

With Trump as president, I would say the odds are pretty good for the Democrats to take back the House next year. You don't need a democratic victory in Georgia's 6th for a fairly objective person to know that. Looking over the figures that Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, EP, etc. It looks like the Republicans have 25-30 at risk seats to around 8-10 for the Democrats. But the figures are dynamic and they will change. I think if the election were held today the Dems pick up 10-15 seats. I think as time goes by and more people get upset with Trump, that 10-15 will become 15-20 and then 20-25.

 

[poweRob]

Post #13

Do you actually expect to be taken seriously when spouting such sophomoric nonsense?

Ahem.... *cough*

Post #10

Correct. That defines the modern leftist loon.

You were saying?

 

[poweRob]

Who is the reich wing?

I think they are the ones who run against the "democrat party" you guys talk aobut so much.

 

[Linc]

I seen where 77% of respondents said all these TV ads had no effect in determining their vote, no effect. That I think is a good thing. Then the local tax property tax reassessment, that has nothing to do with congress and all to do with local government. Go figure. With now close to 40 million dollars being spent on this runoff, I don't see it being useful as an indication for next years midterms. It is just a simple matter of which party buys the seat.

With Trump as president, I would say the odds are pretty good for the Democrats to take back the House next year. You don't need a democratic victory in Georgia's 6th for a fairly objective person to know that. Looking over the figures that Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, EP, etc. It looks like the Republicans have 25-30 at risk seats to around 8-10 for the Democrats. But the figures are dynamic and they will change. I think if the election were held today the Dems pick up 10-15 seats. I think as time goes by and more people get upset with Trump, that 10-15 will become 15-20 and then 20-25.

What Cahaly/Trafalgar are picking up is how different each of these states and CDs are, GOP or DEM. We'll see that this Tuesday with more rural SC-5 and more suburban GA-6. Cahaly was also willing to go where others wouldn't, questioning the effect of the VA shooting on GA-6 since this SurveyUSA poll was taken a day before it.

I'm sure you noticed the latest SurveyUSA was 47-47. Of the 6% undecided, men were 9% and women were only 3%; we would both expect men to break to Handel. More GOPs have voted early than normal etc. as from the Politico article. Cahaly sure has my attention. Should be quite a show .

 

[Perotista]

What Cahaly/Trafalgar are picking up is how different each of these states and CDs are, GOP or DEM. We'll see that this Tuesday with more rural SC-5 and more suburban GA-6. Cahaly was also willing to go where others wouldn't, questioning the effect of the VA shooting on GA-6 since this SurveyUSA poll was taken a day before it.

I'm sure you noticed the latest SurveyUSA was 47-47. Of the 6% undecided, men were 9% and women were only 3%; we would both expect men to break to Handel. More GOPs have voted early than normal etc. as from the Politico article. Cahaly sure has my attention. Should be quite a show .

The suburbs north of Atlanta are where the rich folks live. Cobb and Gwinnett counties. A portion of that district runs into Dekalb county which is a heavily black county. More so than Fulton which includes the city of Atlanta. So I would wager Ossoff wins big in Dekalb, how big may decide the election for him.

I'm still having a hard time figuring out what one congressional seat pick up or retention could be worth 40 million dollars. It isn't like winning or keeping that seat would determine who controls the house. That's an obscene amount of money to be spending on one seat.

 

[Linc]

The suburbs north of Atlanta are where the rich folks live. Cobb and Gwinnett counties. A portion of that district runs into Dekalb county which is a heavily black county. More so than Fulton which includes the city of Atlanta. So I would wager Ossoff wins big in Dekalb, how big may decide the election for him.

I'm still having a hard time figuring out what one congressional seat pick up or retention could be worth 40 million dollars. It isn't like winning or keeping that seat would determine who controls the house. That's an obscene amount of money to be spending on one seat.

This is the type of suburban GOP CD that DEMs hope to compete in next year, those 23 that trump lost and plenty more he barely won and are currently represented by GOPs.

Go back to 2010 when DEMs lost 18 of 20 CDs that McCain won as part of REDMAP 2010. RSLC Redistricting Majority Project. There's a REDMAP 2020 also. It was about ACA and more then and it's about AHCA and more now.

If you type in presidential vote by congressional district, you'll see a hit for one of my best links to 'dailykos'. This is how we know that trump won Cobb(pt.) by 15k, trump won Fulton(pt.) by 4k and Clinton won DeKalb(pt.) by 14k; as well as knowing the total # of votes in each county.

From the green papers, Price got 201,088 last year and Stooksbury got 124,917. The next really big special will be when two really big states elect governors on 11/7/17, VA and NJ. That would be Utah-3 to replace Chaffetz .

 

[Perotista]

This is the type of suburban GOP CD that DEMs hope to compete in next year, those 23 that trump lost and plenty more he barely won and are currently represented by GOPs.

Go back to 2010 when DEMs lost 18 of 20 CDs that McCain won as part of REDMAP 2010. RSLC Redistricting Majority Project. There's a REDMAP 2020 also. It was about ACA and more then and it's about AHCA and more now.

If you type in presidential vote by congressional district, you'll see a hit for one of my best links to 'dailykos'. This is how we know that trump won Cobb(pt.) by 15k, trump won Fulton(pt.) by 4k and Clinton won DeKalb(pt.) by 14k; as well as knowing the total # of votes in each county.

From the green papers, Price got 201,088 last year and Stooksbury got 124,917. The next really big special will be when two really big states elect governors on 11/7/17, VA and NJ. That would be Utah-3 to replace Chaffetz .

The census took place in 2010, but the maps weren't redrawn until 2011 for the 2012 congressional elections. The 2010 midterm was in districts redrawn in 2001. I fully expect the Democrats to take the Virginia and NJ governorships. I think Virginia is now officially a blue state. NJ has been for quite a long time.

But the dynamics for state elections are different at times from the national or presidential one. Then too the number of independents are on the rise and they can and do switch back and forth. What is an important issue locally or statewide may not be nationally and vice versa. I booked marked that page, CD by presidential vote. I thank you for that. I'll have to compare that with what Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and EP have as competitive districts. I had the Democrats picking up a net gain of 12 last year, they picked up 6.

I suppose I was done in by the old adage of, "I love my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem." Then again with the dislike factor so high for the presidential candidates, it wasn't what I would call a normal election. That doesn't mean last years election won't become the type of normal election going forward.

 

[Kurmugeon]

I haven't changed my mind about Trump, nor pulled my support.

If anything my support is allot stronger, after watching the violent and illogical behavior of the opposition party, over the last few months.

The Far-Lefties extremely bad behavior, right up to and including mass assassinations, have convincing me more than ever, that we made the right choice, in that the Far-Left cannot be trusted, EVER!

And everyone I know who also voted for Trump feels the same way... and not a few of the people who refused to vote for Trump, or were Hillary / Bernie voters, have also decided, after the violence, riots and arson, to turn their backs on the Democratic Party, and put their support behind Trump.

I don't believe the silly push-polls which are nothing more than MORE MSM lies and manipulation!

-

 

[reinoe]

The militant side of the right whinge.

I've heard that the militant side of the left wing are called moderates.

 

[reinoe]

The suburbs north of Atlanta are where the rich folks live. Cobb and Gwinnett counties. A portion of that district runs into Dekalb county which is a heavily black county. More so than Fulton which includes the city of Atlanta. So I would wager Ossoff wins big in Dekalb, how big may decide the election for him.

I'm still having a hard time figuring out what one congressional seat pick up or retention could be worth 40 million dollars. It isn't like winning or keeping that seat would determine who controls the house. That's an obscene amount of money to be spending on one seat.

Liberals are motivated by their hatred of Trump as opposed to their own support for their beliefs. Once it was heavily advertised as a referendum against Trump, that's when the money poured in and animated the liberal base. They care nothing for policies or the consequences of said policies.

 

[Linc]

The census took place in 2010, but the maps weren't redrawn until 2011 for the 2012 congressional elections. The 2010 midterm was in districts redrawn in 2001. I fully expect the Democrats to take the Virginia and NJ governorships. I think Virginia is now officially a blue state. NJ has been for quite a long time.

But the dynamics for state elections are different at times from the national or presidential one. Then too the number of independents are on the rise and they can and do switch back and forth. What is an important issue locally or statewide may not be nationally and vice versa. I booked marked that page, CD by presidential vote. I thank you for that. I'll have to compare that with what Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and EP have as competitive districts. I had the Democrats picking up a net gain of 12 last year, they picked up 6.

I suppose I was done in by the old adage of, "I love my congressman, it is the other 434 that are the problem." Then again with the dislike factor so high for the presidential candidates, it wasn't what I would call a normal election. That doesn't mean last years election won't become the type of normal election going forward.

The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017 is also one of my favorite links. Currently, it updates new candidates for federal offices and major state offices each day of the week. You can drop down to past elections which I often do to cross-reference with POTUS vote by CD.

If you drop down to 2018 midterms, you can click on any state to see who's running. The biggest happening is how many more challengers DEMs are putting up. For example, DEMs only challenged AR-2 last year while they have challengers in all 4 Arkansas CDs next year.

Ballotpedia is also great for data mining. By searching around it, I found that DEMs only challenged 23 of 67 GOP seats in the lower house of VA in 2015. This year, they're challenging 53 of 66 with GOPs only challenging 6 of 34 DEM seats.

 

[joG]

No. You'r obviously not talking about the percentage that elected him, so what have I missed?

You have missed that the strength of a mandate and the legitimacy of a government are not necessarily dependent on the majority in parliaments or ECs. If over fifty percent do not vote, they might have helped you get elected. They do not necessarily think of you as representing you.