The Gabe Kapler outfield shift: Is Phillies' experiment revolutionary or ridiculous?
n a spring training game on Feb. 27, Tommy Joseph started in left field for the Phillies. It was strange enough to see the stout first baseman in the outfield, but then something even stranger happened. In the top of the second inning, the Phillies made a pitching change. Tigers farmhand Victor Reyes, a switch-hitter, was due up and would be hitting from the left side. Joseph jogged over to right field and Collin Cowgill moved from right to left field. After Reyes struck out, the two outfielders again exchanged positions.
One of the compelling aspects of baseball is how the game continues to evolve. Some changes are obvious even to the untrained eye, like the home run explosion of the past couple of seasons or the infield shifting that began earlier this decade. Some changes are more subtle. For example, take the pitchout. Did you know the pitchout is essentially dead? Last season, National League teams threw just 59 pitchouts. The Nationals under Dusty Baker had three. Back in 1996 when he was managing the Giants, Baker called 96 pitchouts. Nobody throws pitchouts anymore. Why waste a pitch?
So maybe what we’ll call the Gabe Kapler outfield shift will be the beginning of a revolution. In the specific case of Joseph, even if he makes the Phillies' roster, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he ends up in the outfield, although it’s possible the Phillies will also consider the shift with Rhys Hoskins, a converted first baseman with little experience in left field.
As Matt Gelb outlined in the The Athletic, the specific maneuver for Reyes was discussed before the game. The Phillies’ spray charts indicated Reyes was more likely to hit the ball to left field in the air, so they moved their better defensive outfielder there. From Gelb’s piece:
“I think it'll happen a lot,” Cowgill said. “I think it's great. I love it.”
e Phillies have used the Grapefruit League games to implement their aggressive outfield shifting for every batter, based on spray charts. But they will go beyond that, flipping players across the field when the numbers tell them it is wisest.
That is why Hoskins, who will move from first base to left field this season, has begun some light work in right field. The Phillies hope Hoskins can be a passable defender in left field. But they know he lacks range and instincts because it is a new position for him. He will be their worst outfield defender. So Hoskins expects some mid-inning position changes when the data is clear.
“I think if it goes the way they're hoping, I don't see why not,” Hoskins said. “Yeah. If we have a chance to get more outs in a big situation, I don't see why not.”
So there appears to be some buy-in from Phillies players, at least for now, although I haven’t seen evidence of them trying it again so far this spring. The bigger question: Is it worth it?
Part of the complexity of making this move is that while most ground balls are pulled, making the infield shift a more obvious decision, balls to the outfield are sprayed more equally. Here are the 2017 breakdowns for fly balls and outfield line drives from ESPN Stats & Information:
Left-handed hitters
Left field: 37.1 percent
Center field: 34.5 percent
Right field: 28.4 percent
Far left: 22.5 percent
Far right: 16.4 percent
Right-handed hitters
Left field: 29.7
Center field: 34.8
Right field: 35.5
Far left: 17.9
Far right: 21.4
For the generic hitter, there is no reason to make a change. Obviously, individual hitters have more extreme tendencies. Even then, only five qualified regulars last year hit at least 50 percent of their fly balls and outfield line drives to the opposite field -- Joe Mauer, DJ LeMahieu, David Freese, Eric Hosmer and Christian Yelich. Freese pulled just 3.4 percent of his fly balls and outfield line drives, but since he’s a right-handed batter, that means his balls would be going -- in the Phillies’ case -- to the better outfielder. Hosmer is definitely a batter a you might consider the Kapler Shift for:
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The Gabe Kapler outfield shift: Is Phillies' experiment revolutionary or ridiculous? - SweetSpot- ESPN
