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I think Romney will largely win by default. Cain's sexual allegations are a drag on him. Perry is really fumbling the whole thing. Bachmann's a lunatic. Paul doesn't appeal to enough of the base. Nobody cares about Santorum, Huntsman, or anyone else.
He also has the best chance of beating Obama. Eventually, Republicans will get smart and realize that what they really want is no Obama.
Only if a bunch of liberals register as republicans will Romney win the nomination.
Who among those at the debates now do you really believe will take the nomination if not Romney?
While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.
Herman Cain. He doesn't have a political history that betrays what he claims to believe. A handful of accusers conveniently coming out now that Cain is more viable doesn't mean squat because they are are seen as politically motivated and baseless .Besides that the allegations were released to early. People and their outrage have a short attention span. Mitt Romney on the other hand is blatantly a liberal masquerading as a conservative, he is the republican version of John Kerry. His political record contradicts the hell out of what he is claiming to believe today. So anything he has said since 07 has to be seen as something he said because he thinks it will help make him become president. This is why he isn't running as Massachusetts liberal Romney, he knows it won't get him elected.
Clinton may have been the frontrunner, but she had a serious challenger in Barack Obama, as well as several other respectable fallback candidates who had been on the national political scene for a long time (John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden). Romney may not be any better of a candidate than Hillary Clinton was (and to be fair, she was a pretty damn good candidate)...but Romney has the advantage of running against a field of nobodies and unelectables, whereas Hillary Clinton did not. The Romney camp must be delighted at his good luck to have serious contenders like Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie choosing to sit this one out.
At this point in the last election cycle, I probably would have picked Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, but I could also envision plausible paths to the nomination for several other candidates. At this point I can't envision any path to the Republican nomination for anyone except Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich maybe has an outside shot, but even that is highly unlikely IMO.
Some polls now have Gingrich ahead of Cain...If it becomes evident cain cant win and his supporters go to gingrich, romney loses..
Id say its a tossup between Gingrich and romny
If either or wins..its a LOSS for the teaparty BIG TIME...since the start they laughed off Romny and gingrich and McSames and rinos etc etc...
Be very careful with those polls. Undecided is the leading candidate in many of them. While I will be watching and talking about the polls, at length and in depth, the reality right now is until the first couple votes happen, I am in the dark as to how it will go.
While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.