Republican Karen Handel Wins Georgia House Special Election

[bubbabgone]

I figured there'd be 3 possible outcomes:
1) if Ossoff won it'd be an obvious referendum on Trump that bodes badly for Republicans.
2) if Ossoff lost big it'd be because it was an overwhelming Republican district and not a surprise to anyone.
3) if Ossoff lost by a point or two it was a referendum on Trump in an overwhelming Republican district and as such bodes badly for Republicans who would run away from him next year.

I admit when I'm wrong. Ossoff lost because of the weather.

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow offers a reason why Democrat Jon Ossoff might have lost last night's special election in GA-06: "Steve, let me ask you one last question on this. If there was a turnout effect from the bad weather today in the district, does that have any partisan implications that you could foresee in terms of what was expected for same day, election day voting rather than the early vote?"

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...implications_in_georgia_special_election.html

 

[Winston]

If HRC had moved left she would have bled votes to the right. If Dems think their salvation in the future is to move left then they will wander in the wilderness a long time.

Bernie won MI and WI in the primary. And people in the center that lean left would've voted for Trump over a more left HRC?

 

[Jack Hays]

Bernie won MI and WI in the primary. And people in the center that lean left would've voted for Trump over a more left HRC?

Centrists would have left HRC and sat out or, yes, gone to DJT.

 

[Winston]

Centrists would have left HRC and sat out or, yes, gone to DJT.

I seriously doubt that but, hopefully next time the Democrats will produce a left wing candidate that actually contrasts from Republicans. So, we can bear this argument out. Everyone also said Corbyn would be the death of Labour and what happened over there. That comparison isn't exactly apples to apples but, I feel like it is no small comment on how wrong conventional wisdom can be during politically turbulent times.

 

[jimbo]

It's interesting that it ended up so tight, particularly for such a Republican stronghold. But the lesson being from the last few of these special elections, strongholds are strongholds for a reason.

We'll see if the DNC can put anything together, or if they just wait it out like they are more likely to do.

Agreed. In order for the DNC to put anything together, they first have to admit what they are doing is wrong. I have seen no indication that's happening.

IMO Repubs will gain more seats in '18 with some establishment incumbents losing on both sides. Win the Presidency in '20, but not with Trump. Or Pence.

 

[Gill]

I mean, the source isn't actually twitter, it's Issue One, it's just that you can't hotlink to images that are on twitter so I had to link the tweet.

Your source uses my source to get their numbers lol.

Then why are the numbers drastically different???

 

[Winston]

I figured there'd be 3 possible outcomes:
1) if Ossoff won it'd be an obvious referendum on Trump that bodes badly for Republicans.
2) if Ossoff lost big it'd be because it was an overwhelming Republican district and not a surprise to anyone.
3) if Ossoff lost by a point or two it was a referendum on Trump in an overwhelming Republican district and as such bodes badly for Republicans who would run away from him next year.

I admit when I'm wrong. Ossoff lost because of the weather.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...implications_in_georgia_special_election.html

All avid Weather Channel watchers, accurately predicted the election, lol.

 

[Cardinal]

All avid Weather Channel watchers, accurately predicted the election, lol.

That's humiliating.

"Ooh, it's raining. No healthcare for me, I guess."

 

[AlbqOwl]

Republican Karen Handel wins Georgia House special election

Republican Karen Handel wins Georgia House special election - CNNPolitics.com

" Atlanta (CNN)Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in a high-stakes special election for a Georgia House seat on Tuesday, denying Democrats their first major victory of the Donald Trump era.

Handel bested Ossoff by 5 percentage points in the most expensive House race in history.
It was a much closer margin than the 20-plus point wins typically posted by former Rep. Tom Price -- whose departure to become Trump's health and human services secretary created the vacancy.
But it wasn't what Democrats who pumped $23 million into Ossoff's campaign so desperately craved: A win."

Maybe it is time for the Democrats to stop blaming the Russians and Trump collusion for their problems and start looking to their own people and agenda? They are 0 for 4 in contested special elections even with the disunity within the Republican Party and a President with very high unfavorables.

 

[Winston]

That's humiliating.

"Ooh, it's raining. No healthcare for me, I guess."

I'm going to do the unthinkable and open myself up to right wing ridicule and taunting.

After the AHCA and Trump, I can't believe people still support Republicans at all. I'm flabbergasted she got 52% of the vote. Who are these people, and how do they reconcile their votes? Is it all abortion and 2a single issue voting? Becuase they must have their heads jammed straight up their asses to support more Republicans in congress. It's absolutely appaling.

 

[Cardinal]

I'm going to do the unthinkable and open myself up to right wing ridicule and taunting.

After the AHCA and Trump, I can't believe people still support Republicans at all. I'm flabbergasted she got 52% of the vote. Who are these people, and how do they reconcile their votes? Is it all abortion and 2a single issue voting? Becuase they must have their heads jammed straight up their asses to support more Republicans in congress. It's absolutely appaling.

Lifetime judicial appointments.

That's why anybody waiting for trump's support to erode is wasting their time.

 

[Plus Ultra]

Maybe it is time for the Democrats to stop blaming the Russians and Trump collusion for their problems and start looking to their own people and agenda? They are 0 for 4 in contested special elections even with the disunity within the Republican Party and a President with very high unfavorables.

People are getting tired of all this inconclusive investigating, the Democrat's don't have an agenda they just promise to promote whatever the special interest group they are promising to wants, right now they've got all their groups together on getting Trump out.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal Trump adviser and a past occupant of the Georgia seat, contended that the handful of special elections this year revealed that voters were tuning out the Russia scandal that has consumed Washington. He argued that the political establishment, much as it did during the 2016 campaign, continued to underestimate the connection many Americans felt with the president.

“He may be resonating with people in a way that some don’t get,” Gingrich said. “Maybe there’s a whole new conversation taking place in a way that none of us understand.”
But the biggest source of relief for Republicans was the revelation that the party’s base hasn’t abandoned the president.

While Trump has failed to follow through on many of his big-ticket campaign promises, polling continues to show that most bedrock Republicans approve of the job he is doing. That dynamic played out in Georgia where, confronting a mammoth Democratic turnout operation and an energized liberal base, GOP voters turned out in droves. Trump spikes the ball after Georgia election win - POLITICO

 

[Winston]

Lifetime judicial appointments.

That's why anybody waiting for trump's support to erode is wasting their time.

Indeed, but congressmen don't appoint judges. Trump on the other hand could run naked down the national mall screaming gibberish and appoint a Scalia the next day, and everything's cool. He was just alternative jogging.

 

[akyron]

That's humiliating.

"Ooh, it's raining. No healthcare for me, I guess."

The fate of healthcare rested on Ossoff?

Maybe he should change his name to Atlas.

 

[Fenton Lum]

Not MY parties and you literally said "One party down". Im agreeing with you, though. Just lamenting that its a pipedream.

Unless the public is ready to get up and resist, yeah, and so, yeah, you're right, we're not ready yet.

 

[Gill]

I figured there'd be 3 possible outcomes:
1) if Ossoff won it'd be an obvious referendum on Trump that bodes badly for Republicans.
2) if Ossoff lost big it'd be because it was an overwhelming Republican district and not a surprise to anyone.
3) if Ossoff lost by a point or two it was a referendum on Trump in an overwhelming Republican district and as such bodes badly for Republicans who would run away from him next year.

I admit when I'm wrong. Ossoff lost because of the weather.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...implications_in_georgia_special_election.html

I watched the Blues Brothers again the other day. Got a chuckle again when Belushi started giving excuses to Carrie Fisher as to why he hadn't called her.

I guess Maddow watched it too and got some pointers.

 

[Gill]

That doesn't include outside money spending on Handel's behalf.

View attachment 67219021
Source: New York Times

This was a solid red seat, as the South Carolina seat was. The fact that both were close is an indication for 2018, where there are much more in-play districts.

I wonder why you left out the graph directly above the one you posted:

 

[Casca XV]

Republican Karen Handel wins Georgia House special election

Republican Karen Handel wins Georgia House special election - CNNPolitics.com

" Atlanta (CNN)Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in a high-stakes special election for a Georgia House seat on Tuesday, denying Democrats their first major victory of the Donald Trump era.

Handel bested Ossoff by 5 percentage points in the most expensive House race in history.
It was a much closer margin than the 20-plus point wins typically posted by former Rep. Tom Price -- whose departure to become Trump's health and human services secretary created the vacancy.
But it wasn't what Democrats who pumped $23 million into Ossoff's campaign so desperately craved: A win."

First major victory in the Trump era?

Since and including the 2010 midterm elections Dem have lost over 90% of all local, state, and national elections.

Their only major victory in the last 6 -7 years was getting Obama reelected. Like with Hillary's so called popular vote lead there is lots of evidence that voter/election fraud played a huge part in that.

I think there is a good chance the Democrat party is looking at extinction.

 

[akyron]

Genuine question here from a foreigner who would like some feedback to understand the significance of this and what difference it may make.

Republicans already control the House, Senate, and Presidency. They've already won.

Prominent Statistician Declared ‘Math Is Dead’ If Handel Won Georgia

Nate Silver
✔
@NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten It means there's a 70% chance Ossoff wins and a 30% chance that MATH IS DEAD AND DATA IS BROKEN.
5:08 PM - 14 Jun 2017


It shows that democrats are still in the weeds on a 5 par course.

That is both good and bad news.

Iron sharpens iron so its better when its all more competetive.

When you spend near 23 million vs 3-4 million and lose....thats a real problem with ideas.

It also shows that media is failing to destroy trump no matter how egregiously they lie.

Either that or "Math is Dead".

I think it has less to do with math is dead and more to do with general wrong headedness.

 

[Gill]

First major victory in the Trump era?

Since and including the 2010 midterm elections Dem have lost over 90% of all local, state, and national elections.

Their only major victory in the last 6 -7 years was getting Obama reelected. Like with Hillary's so called popular vote lead there is lots of evidence that voter/election fraud played a huge part in that.

I think there is a good chance the Democrat party is looking at extinction.

If it weren't for New York City and California, they probably would go extinct.

 

[AlbqOwl]

People are getting tired of all this inconclusive investigating, the Democrat's don't have an agenda they just promise to promote whatever the special interest group they are promising to wants, right now they've got all their groups together on getting Trump out.

The excerpt you quoted suggests that Trump has 'failed to follow through on his campaign promises'. That is just plain wrong but what I have come to expect from Politico.

The reason his base is hanging in there with him is that President Trump has methodically and systematically followed through on his campaign promises.

The fact that the media refuses to report it or mischaracterizes it and the Democrats continue to obstruct on everything and the dishonest and malicious hate speech continues unabated does not change the fact that he is staying on message. If he varies or backs up to change tactics or goes to a Plan B in the least way, the haters immediately jump on it as evidence he isn't doing or accomplishing anything and/or is failing. And that is just plain dishonest.

In the first 100 days:
https://newhampshirereview.com/donald-trump/president-donald-trump-accomplishments/

 

[Fenton]

An honest appraisal from a DP Left of Center Poster -

The District 6 race in Georgia held more interest than Mulvaney's former seat in South Carolina. Ossoff, only 30 years old, does not live in the district. He had never run for elected office before. He ran in a district that has elected GOP candidates, without exception, for like 4 decades.
Yeah, I had my hopes up for an upset. I didn't bet money on it. Well before the MSM called the race for Handel, I had already muted the sound on my TV. I laugh at how effectively this tempered my disappointment.

Just as a reminder, Obama ran for a Congressional seat in Illinois. None of us remember U.S. Representative Obama.... grin grin... because he lost. Instead, we remember Senator Obama and President Obama.

Congratulations to all of you who rooted for Handel. I happen to have a best friend with that last name, so therein lied another smile!

It's interesting that it ended up so tight, particularly for such a Republican stronghold. But the lesson being from the last few of these special elections, strongholds are strongholds for a reason.

We'll see if the DNC can put anything together, or if they just wait it out like they are more likely to do.

The Democrats spending on this election broke records.

They gave it everything they had, 22 million dollars, a handpicked millenial who was overly sympathetic to needs of the coalition of victims they pandered to, and they still came up short.

This was ofcourse after the 24/7 Trump attacks and Russian collusion conspiracy theories that major news outlets have devoted themselves too

They desperately wanted a win and didnt spend 22 million to come in a close second.

 

[Fearandloathing]

From Matt Vespa at Townhall:

"It will be interesting to see if Ossoff did get 15 percent of GOP voters, while tallying how many voters who sat out the April 18 election only to show up and vote tonight. On paper, they number in the tens of thousands. Those voters reportedly trended conservative on the issues. Overall, it was a depressing night for Democrats. They lost this race and the special election in SC-05, which was held to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Rick Mulvaney, who is now The Director Of The Office of Budget and Management. The Left got an upper cut in South Carolina, followed by a haymaker in Georgia. Still, we have a long way to go until the 2018 midterms, but it seems the GOP base in GA-06 came home, despite not being the most enthusiastic Trump supporters. It was a good night for the GOP." https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...n-ossoff-in-georgia-special-election-n2344170

When the normal spread is 20% or better for the Republicans, coming within 5% in a traditionally Republican seat is certainly a gain, and to some a win that they came so close.

Wait, you maybe think losing 15% of the vote is nothing to worry about. That would be typical Twitthead thinking

 

[Casca XV]

I figured there'd be 3 possible outcomes:
1) if Ossoff won it'd be an obvious referendum on Trump that bodes badly for Republicans.
2) if Ossoff lost big it'd be because it was an overwhelming Republican district and not a surprise to anyone.
3) if Ossoff lost by a point or two it was a referendum on Trump in an overwhelming Republican district and as such bodes badly for Republicans who would run away from him next year.

I admit when I'm wrong. Ossoff lost because of the weather.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...implications_in_georgia_special_election.html

That Dems have lost 90+% all elections since 2010 says it all

 

[polgara]

I figured there'd be 3 possible outcomes:
1) if Ossoff won it'd be an obvious referendum on Trump that bodes badly for Republicans.
2) if Ossoff lost big it'd be because it was an overwhelming Republican district and not a surprise to anyone.
3) if Ossoff lost by a point or two it was a referendum on Trump in an overwhelming Republican district and as such bodes badly for Republicans who would run away from him next year.

I admit when I'm wrong. Ossoff lost because of the weather.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...implications_in_georgia_special_election.html

Greetings, bubba. :2wave:

So Rachel came up with an unusual "aha" comment about the weather to explain the loss? :lamo At least it wasn't one of the same old, same old explanations we've become accustomed to hearing! :no: