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It's still State politics. Republicans do fine on the State level, but lately on the national stage not so good. And also obviously there's a whole different set of backers and power brokers in a National election/primary. Many of you Republicans are underestimating the Bush money, backers, and the Bush political machine.
I agree Bush Money shouldn't be underestimated. But here is where the large field disadvantages him. Money is mostly useful (especially for a candidate such as Bush) in defining other candidates - with multiple serious conservative challengers, Bush's money is spread thin.
Nor is it "state politics". It's ability to communicate. We have a President right now who won because he was seen as transformational because he was exceptionally good at giving the right kinds of speeches to the right people. Rubio has that.
In 2012 Romney spiraled down about 1/2 dozen times. He still ended up the GOP nom. It's early.
Romney depended on the self-destruction of the conservative alternatives, something Jeb can't depend on. But we'll see .