Paul Ryan Not Running

[tres borrachos]

I've been predicting Arizona going Democratic for several months now in my forecast. Nevada also. Tennessee is new. In my April forecast I had the GOP Blackburn winning, I changed my mind on that race.

Oh my! I missed your update. So you're also predicting a Blackburn loss?

 

[Perotista]

Yes, made necessary because McConnell just wouldn't allow anyone up for a vote, ever, including a SC pick a year before the next election...



I guess the point is the idea that the Democratic House (if it happens) will have some real opportunity to sit down with Trump and get things done assumes a willingness of McConnell to allow it, and the odds of that appear to be roughly 0%.

The senate sitting on SCOTUS nominees is not unheard of. The Democratic Senate during Nixon went 391 days before confirming Blackman. There's been much longer time taken, but they were all in the 1800's. The reasons were all different. Last year was purely partisanship in all it's glory or hog manure.

The problem is that since Bork the SCOTUS nominations and confirmations have become a political ideological battleground. It hasn't always been that way. I suppose it had to be expected when the Republicans shed their liberal wing and the Democrats, their conservative wing making both parties much more ideological than they were in the past.

Both parties want to use the SCOTUS to shoot down the other parties legislation and ideas.

 

[Perotista]

Oh my! I missed your update. So you're also predicting a Blackburn loss?

Yep, lots have changed in Tennessee over the last couple of weeks. That is why I do these monthly. Perhaps forecast is the wrong word to use in this, it is more of an if the election were held today, these would be the results. If I were to add percentages as of today,
D Sinema, Arizona 53% chance of winning, D Rosen, Nevada 53% chance of winning, D Bredesen, 55% chance of winning. Those three GOP currently held seats goes to the Democrat. On the other side of things, D McCaskill, Missouri 51% chance of retaining her seat, D Donnelly Indiana 51% chance of retaining his seat, D Heitkamp SD 51% chance of retaining her seat and D Nelson, Florida 54% chance of retaining his seats.

Let me tell you that Missouri, Indiana, South Dakota would fall into the tossup category if I did tossups which I don't. Sinema and Rosen, AZ and NV would be ever so slight favorites, most pundits would put them in the lean Democratic column. Tennessee and Florida would also fall into the lean category, but both Bredesen and Nelson slight favorites without the ever so. Make sense?

History shows that close senate races usually go to one party or the other. I said usually, so at this point I wouldn't be surprised if one party wins all seven or six of seven. They all are that close.

 

[jaeger19]

If I had to guess, I think that the Democrats will continue to oppose Trump and his every move even when they take back the House and possibly the senate. Now prior to Trump announcing his run for the presidency as a Republican, he was quite the liberal guy. His lifelong held political views were quite liberal. Of course he change a bunch to run as a Republican.

If the Democrats take back the House, that is probable, the senate if iffy. At least as of today. Would Trump keep his fingers off twitter and invite the Democratic leadership to the White House for a meeting of the minds. Then would Trump revert to some of his prior lifelong views? Even if Trump did that, would Schumer and Pelosi do a 180 and agree to work with him?

I think being anti-Trump is too ingrained. No change, just anti-Trump all the way.

Well.. the only caveat is that Trump has worked with Schumer and Pelosi a couple of times so far.. heck he had Diane Feinstein clapping with glee next to him when he told the republicans at the "gun control" meeting he had, that they had to consider a ban on assault weapons.. not to mention interrupting PENCE when he said that you could only take a persons firearms after due process.. and Trump said.. "wait... I don't think we need to wait for due process".

So.. if schumer and Pelosi could come up with a piece of legislation that made him look good.. and talked him up... he probably would switch to his prior liberal views.

But.. who knows.

 

[Perotista]

Well.. the only caveat is that Trump has worked with Schumer and Pelosi a couple of times so far.. heck he had Diane Feinstein clapping with glee next to him when he told the republicans at the "gun control" meeting he had, that they had to consider a ban on assault weapons.. not to mention interrupting PENCE when he said that you could only take a persons firearms after due process.. and Trump said.. "wait... I don't think we need to wait for due process".

So.. if schumer and Pelosi could come up with a piece of legislation that made him look good.. and talked him up... he probably would switch to his prior liberal views.

But.. who knows.

Trump is unique and an enigma. He will say something one day, the complete opposite the next and deny saying anything at all on the third. He'll be for this in morning, but will have changed his mind in the afternoon. I don't think one can trust anything that comes out of Trump's mouth.

As for Schumer, Trump has donated a bunch of cash to him prior to Trump becoming a Republican for the third time back in 2012. Heck, he was friends with Bill and Hillary before he announced his run for the presidency as a Republican. As I understand it, Trump talked with Bill Clinton just prior to Trump announcing his run for the Republican nomination. It's open whether or not he told Bill he was going to run. These articles talk around that. But they do confirm Trump's long friendship with the Clinton's.

https://www.nytimes.com/politics/fi...ed-by-phone-before-trump-announced-candidacy/

Bill Clinton, Donald Trump had phone call before run: Report - Business Insider

I really don't know what Trump would do. He very well could switch back to his liberal lifelong held views. Then again, he may just stick with what his base wants.

 

[pilot16]

If I had to guess, I think that the Democrats will continue to oppose Trump and his every move even when they take back the House and possibly the senate. Now prior to Trump announcing his run for the presidency as a Republican, he was quite the liberal guy. His lifelong held political views were quite liberal. Of course he change a bunch to run as a Republican.

If the Democrats take back the House, that is probable, the senate if iffy. At least as of today. Would Trump keep his fingers off twitter and invite the Democratic leadership to the White House for a meeting of the minds. Then would Trump revert to some of his prior lifelong views? Even if Trump did that, would Schumer and Pelosi do a 180 and agree to work with him?

I think being anti-Trump is too ingrained. No change, just anti-Trump all the way.

One of my buddies keeps saying that if Trump were to lose the house and the senate to dems, he is likely to switch parties himself and become a dem. He would just say the GOP is now "out to get him" or something like that and go back to being a liberal guy. I thought it a curious observation and even though I doubt will happen, again we are in the era of Trump where anything that used to be unthinkable is thinkable. I can only imagine him supporting Schumer and the dems on various policies. But again he is unique and I suppose I wouldnt put it past him.

 

[pilot16]

To be honest, and this is just my opinion, I think the "anti-Pelosi" message won't work. She's been out of her Speaker role for 7 years. Do the Republicans really think Independents are sitting around chewing their nails about someone who hasn't been in that position since 2011?

But this is the new Republican Party, and they have shown every day at every turn that they are just absolutely ignorant, so I guess anything is possible.

I also am doubtful if Pelosi regains her majority leader status. If many of these progressive dems in the House are successful this November, they are unlikely to vote for her as speaker. Its still possible enough might be persuaded, but I do think the progressives will be hard charging if they are successful at the polls.

 

[pilot16]

Trump is unique and an enigma. He will say something one day, the complete opposite the next and deny saying anything at all on the third. He'll be for this in morning, but will have changed his mind in the afternoon. I don't think one can trust anything that comes out of Trump's mouth.

As for Schumer, Trump has donated a bunch of cash to him prior to Trump becoming a Republican for the third time back in 2012. Heck, he was friends with Bill and Hillary before he announced his run for the presidency as a Republican. As I understand it, Trump talked with Bill Clinton just prior to Trump announcing his run for the Republican nomination. It's open whether or not he told Bill he was going to run. These articles talk around that. But they do confirm Trump's long friendship with the Clinton's.

https://www.nytimes.com/politics/fi...ed-by-phone-before-trump-announced-candidacy/

Bill Clinton, Donald Trump had phone call before run: Report - Business Insider

I really don't know what Trump would do. He very well could switch back to his liberal lifelong held views. Then again, he may just stick with what his base wants.

I think the real question might be, would his base really care what he did? I mean as you say, he says one thing and does the other. He could easily get up at a rally and spew democratic talking points and they would cheer. As we talked about before, a large chunk of his voters, arent loyal party members either. So its possible he could take a big chunk of his base with him, remember a lot of them were former democrats or unaffiliated too.

 

[Perotista]

One of my buddies keeps saying that if Trump were to lose the house and the senate to dems, he is likely to switch parties himself and become a dem. He would just say the GOP is now "out to get him" or something like that and go back to being a liberal guy. I thought it a curious observation and even though I doubt will happen, again we are in the era of Trump where anything that used to be unthinkable is thinkable. I can only imagine him supporting Schumer and the dems on various policies. But again he is unique and I suppose I wouldnt put it past him.

There is nothing I would put past Trump either. But switching parties while in the White House... Even in the era of Trump that sounds far fetched. But in the past Senators and Congressmen have switched parties while in the middle of their terms. Specter and Ben Nighthorse Campbell come to mind right off the bat.

Anything is possible, for sure.

 

[Perotista]

I think the real question might be, would his base really care what he did? I mean as you say, he says one thing and does the other. He could easily get up at a rally and spew democratic talking points and they would cheer. As we talked about before, a large chunk of his voters, arent loyal party members either. So its possible he could take a big chunk of his base with him, remember a lot of them were former democrats or unaffiliated too.

Sure, they love the man and not the party. They are loyal to the man, not the party. I agree. I don't think they would mind. At least most of them. How many times have you read postings from the Avid Trumpers tell us that Trump is a populist, a nationalist or a nativist. They have harped on those caveats, the one they left out most of the time was conservative.

Sort of makes one go Hmmmmmm!