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On the issue of raising the minimum wage

What is your opinion on the plans to increase the minimum wage?


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  • Poll closed .
Your comment will be accurate if you have government control over prices especially housing so the extra money doesn't get sucked up by greedy housing moguls and corporations.

Econ 101: people don't suck up money they sell things at a low price so people want to enrich themselves by buying. Do you understand? You should be asking questions to learn not making assertions about things you don't understand.
 
Sure, a life time of talking to dedicated liberals who admit to have not read one book explaining why capitalism is superior to socialism, and who can express nothing more complex than, welfare is good because it helps people.

I never such a book either. In fact, I never got around to reading (outside of academic journals) the works of Piketty, Krugman or Stiglitz. I did read a few pages from Friedman and Hayek, but it was about a very different problem. Usually, I find these types of books extremely boring. I pick it up, read a few pages and put it back down. My interest in science has always been the "how it works," so I am more interested in the technical details and plumbing of your arguments than in your conclusion, but that's always hidden in books aimed at the general public.

Examples of accessible work I do like would be Sowell's. I mostly like how he explains things and uses very simple pieces of information to point out potential problems in the arguments of someone else. Another economist whose work I absolutely love is John Cochrane. He has a whole course on financial economics on youtube. He is a very rare person whose explanations are as precise as I like them without being long and slow. It's clear, detailed and yet to the point. The only issue is you need some knowledge of calculus and linear algebra to follow. But if you follow the whole course, or have some background in economics, the later lectures cover recent articles... It's very interesting.

I'm sure on a general IQ test liberals would test as well as conservatives. But on the particular conceptual skill needed to understand capitalism/socialism they are very very slow indeed. As I said, totally unable to express a concept more complex than, I care, welfare is good, you don't care and so are morally inferior to me. Its pure ignorance and no matter how times you explain it to them they 100% go back to, I care therefore welfare is good. The " debate goes on" only because liberals cant debate or learn, they merely parrot over over and over, welfare is good, I am morally superior.

Maybe we're saying something very similar, but we use different words for it. When I read your other comments, to me, it meant "they are dumb, therefore they can't understand." This new comment sounds more like "they focus on just the one thing, use it to not listen and end up saying dumb things." Did I get your intended meaning correctly this time around?

That would be closer to what I meant, though it is not the most diplomatic way to put things. My point wasn't that they were stupid, but that everyone can get their heads to play a trick on them, although the reasons vary depending on your personality and life experience. For at least some people on the left, there is a tendency to rely on an intentional notion of caring and it can play tricks on them.

With that being said, we all have to be careful. It's very tempting to paint others as ignorant, stupid or malign because it means we can substitute a diagnose for an argument. In general, rank pulling and moralizing makes us all stupid.
 
I know about the velocity of money. But what about these workers decide to save the extra money instead of spending it. and how about inflation if they decide to spend it as you mentioned in your comment. Your comment will be accurate if you have government control over prices especially housing so the extra money doesn't get sucked up by greedy housing moguls and corporations.

In any given economy people are either saving or spending money. (Those are the only two options!) It is the balance between the two that matters. That is, if (as in The Great Recession massive layoffs occured) in barely 10 months Demand dropped radically. It was the succession of layoffs that provoked a dampening of Demand that provoked more layoffs. (Aka, the Economy's vicious circle of events.)

Inflation in prices can have the effect of dampening Demand as well, since people put-off purchases.

In either case, it is not the fact of what is happening but the manner in which Consumers react to the situation.

During the years following the Great Recession there was zero net employment-creation for four long years because the HofR (under Replicant control) REFUSED any stimulus-spending. (See that in the infographic here.)

There is no mystery whatsoever to ending economic-recessions. If a country does not spend Public Funds to stimulate Demand then jobs cannot be created.
 
Inflation in prices can have the effect of dampening Demand as well, since people put-off purchases.

Just to be clear, it is when prices are expected to fall that people put off purchases. It doesn't make sense to wait longer, all other things equal, if you think you'll pay more later.

And when you get Alice-in-Wonderland oddities like contractionary tax cuts at the zero-lower-bound in simple New Keynesian models, it happens in part because people in the model expect falling prices. The most accessible discussion I could find of these oddities is given by Eggertsson (2010): Page Missing nice thing is that he spends most of the article on simple models, so he actually gives us graphic representations of the equilibrium dynamics (and he does it while including the effects of expectations). Of course, he talks about fiscal policy and the ZLB, but it can give everyone a sense of how economists think today as opposed to what they probably saw in ECON 101. It's also a good example of how expected inflation can play with equilibrium dynamics in economic models. Anyhow, deflation dampens demand, not inflation.

Side note: you only get these odd things in NK models where you use peculiar parameter values, solve the model by log-linearization (which effectively rids you of certain equilibria) and you have to assume away the capacity of the central bank to do anything at the ZLB. I know they are necessary because the results disappear in Boneva, Braun and Waki (2016) and in models that use a modified Feds Funds rate to account for things like QE as proposed by Wu and Zhang (2016).

In either case, it is not the fact of what is happening but the manner in which Consumers react to the situation.

It is only part of the story. You have financial intermediaries, firms and a central bank somewhere in that picture whose reactions also count.

During the years following the Great Recession there was zero net employment-creation for four long years because the HofR (under Replicant control) REFUSED any stimulus-spending. (See that in the infographic here.) There is no mystery whatsoever to ending economic-recessions. If a country does not spend Public Funds to stimulate Demand then jobs cannot be created.

I would highly dispute both claims. The solution is not obvious at all, in no small part because pinning down the effect of fiscal expansion is very complicated. There is a paper by Guay and Normandin (2018) that uses an example of fiscal policy analysis which distinguishes between tax cuts and spending hikes to illustrate their statistical method: https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=CEF2018&paper_id=120.

The key idea is that you need to tie a descriptive statistical model to an underlying causal (structural) model through assumptions to pin down causal effects and the authors propose a statistical test to reduce the number of untestable restrictions you have to impose a priori to do it For US data, they can rely entirely on their statistical test to pin down the effect of tax cuts on output. They cannot do it for spending: it depends on the assumptions in which you believe. In a very profound way, this is not obvious because the data is currently insufficient to force me to conclude one way or another. Many estimates are reasonable, in other words.
 
Just to be clear, it is when prices are expected to fall that people put off purchases. It doesn't make sense to wait longer, all other things equal, if you think you'll pay more later.

That depends upon where one is in terms of salary. The poor are hurt the most, and I suggest it is fact that no advance in the Minimum Wage has affected mostly the lifestyles of the poor. To the point of reducing their lifespan.

From here:
Life expectancy increases continuously with income. At the age of 40 years, the gap in life expectancy between individuals in the top and bottom 1% of the income distribution in the United States is 15 years for men and 10 years for women.

Wanna live longer? Get rich - very rich ... !
 
A note on the Guay and Normandin paper:

They introduce a new method in what we call the structural vector autoregression literature. In their example, they use the logarithm of real GDP, real total (federal, state and local) government receipts net of transfers and define government spending as the logarithm of the sum of government consumption and investment expenditures. All of this is expressed per capita. You can put all these three variable in a 3x1 vector Y(t). The idea of a VAR is that the dynamic is described this way:

Y(t) = Constant + A(1)*Y(t-1) + ... + A(p)*Y(t-p) + Error_term

Where A(i) is a 3x3 matrix of parameters and the other two terms are 3x1 vectors. In a structural VAR, you assume that the real (causal) dynamic is well approximated by a model that has the same form:

Y(t) = Other_Constant + B(1)*Y(t-1) + ... + B(p)*Y(t-p) + Strucural_Error_term

Where the structural error term is a vector of uncorrelated innovations. Then, you link the two by saying Error_term = H*Structural_Error_term: what you see in the real world as a statistical error term is a linear combination of structural errors. In other words, in the real world, everything happens at once and you need to disentangle the error terms to pin down causal effects. Now, you need a way to recover the B(1),...,B(p) using the estimated values for A(1),...,A(p). I will spare you the details of this; you just need to know we need to make assumptions. Some assumptions we can make focus on short term dynamics and others on long term dynamics. We could say that output reacts with a quarter of delay to both tax and spending shocks, for example. Another type of assumption we could make if we had consumption growth and output growth in a VAR is that, in the long run, they can't diverge from each other. Regardless, all these things end up telling you what is the matrix H above, so you can disentangle the statistical errors, recover the structural errors and afterward use them to study how the system reacts to structural shocks.

What do Guay and Normandin add to this? They point out that you can use the shape of the distribution of statistical errors to narrow down possible decomposition. Formally, they use kurtosis and skewness to impose statistically meaningful restrictions. The nice part is that this can solve part of the problem, making the dispute hinge on results for a much narrower set of possibilities -- and that's what they talk about in section 5.

NB: What I call error is sometimes called innovation and, when it is structural, it is often called a structural shock.
 
The poor are hurt the most, and I suggest it is fact that no advance in the Minimum Wage has affected mostly the lifestyles of the poor. To the point of reducing their lifespan.

I am not sure exactly how a minimum wage affects income distribution. One of the problems is that it imposes a price on people without affecting their productivity. In many cases, this can be counterproductive because it prices the least competent workers unfavorably. I am aware of studies that show evidence this kind of objection might be wrong. For example, Card (1992) https://www.nber.org/papers/w4058.pdf, or the review he did with Krueger in 1995 https://www.researchgate.net/profil...a-analysis/links/5558b87b08ae6943a876ac74.pdf.

Labor market economics is most definitely not my area of expertise, so I can't put up a sensible list of more recent articles and debate all the subtleties involved. However, the sticking point for me thus far is the difficulty of reconciling these results with theory. It is not really negligible because the values they get rely on assumptions about the underlying processes, even if they impose as little structure as possible in these types of studies. Moreover, they focused on typically small changes in the minimum wage and some of them merely find an absence of statistically meaningful impact. I have no idea what happens when you drive labor costs up by tens of percents. You just seem to assume we're picking the pockets of wealthy individuals.
 
Usually, I find these types of books extremely boring. I pick it up, read a few pages and put it back down. My interest in science has always been the "how it works," so I am more interested in the technical details and plumbing of your arguments than in your conclusion, but that's always hidden in books aimed at the general public.

Well, see, enough people concluded that libsocialism was good so that 120 million were slowly starved to death. If economics bores you it demonstrates what a trivial person you are.
 
Examples of accessible work I do like would be Sowell's. I mostly like how he explains things and uses very simple pieces of information to point out potential problems in the arguments of someone else. .

His entire career has been directed at proving how dumb and deadly libsocialists are. He does not want to serve any other purpose because no other purpose could be half as important. If that does not interest you it is because you are confused, disorganized, and trivial by nature. Sad, but it it not to late to repent .
 
This new comment sounds more like "they focus on just the one thing, use it to not listen and end up saying dumb things." Did I get your intended meaning correctly this time around?

they have the IQ to only only focus on something kindergartenish becuase that is all they can understand, namely, "I care, welfare is caring, capitalism is not ."
 
It's very tempting to paint others as ignorant, stupid or malign because it means we can substitute a diagnose for an argument. In general, rank pulling and moralizing makes us all stupid.

so make an argument! Why aren't liberals ignorant stupid or malign as Thomas Sowell Milton Friedman and many other believe???
 
Well, see, enough people concluded that libsocialism was good so that 120 million were slowly starved to death. If economics bores you it demonstrates what a trivial person you are.

Economics does not bore me when it is treated in a scientific manner, bothering to dig into intuitions, theories and empirical evidence to figure out what is going on. When it is dumbed down beyond recognition into slogans politicians can borrow, it becomes boring.
 
So make an argument! Why aren't liberals ignorant stupid or malign as Thomas Sowell, Milton Friedman, and many other believe???

Sowell never called them ignorant or stupid. He pointed out problems with some of their arguments or provided responses of his own.

I think you're being deliberately obtuse.
 
Sowell never called them ignorant or stupid. He pointed out problems with some of their arguments or provided responses of his own. I think you're being deliberately obtuse.

Sowell is at Hoover where only extreme right wing intellectuals reside. Sowell and Friedman thought liberals were very stupid and ignorant. Both were always astounded at how 100% dumb, deadly, and persistent liberal arguments are. Sowell for example thinks that when blacks came to America it amounted to a successful refugee movement when seen in light of other refugee movements. Liberals are violently opposed to the very sight of the man. Your rose colored glasses prevent you from seeing the war right under your nose.

You seem to be too spineless to have a position on anything so instead just enjoy everyone's opinion.
 
Economics does not bore me when it is treated in a scientific manner,.

is it scientific to observe that libsocialism just starved 120 million to death? That liberals spied for Stalin while he was slowly starving 60 million to death?
Is it scientific to observe that Cuba does worse than Florida? That East Germany did worse than West Germany? That the modern Democratic party favors the policies of East German and Cuba? Is it scientific to observe that Friedman discovered what caused the Great Depression and it led to the extreme stability in USA, Europe, China, India?
 
is it scientific to observe that libsocialism just starved 120 million to death? That liberals spied for Stalin while he was slowly starving 60 million to death?
Is it scientific to observe that Cuba does worse than Florida? That East Germany did worse than West Germany? That the modern Democratic party favors the policies of East German and Cuba? Is it scientific to observe that Friedman discovered what caused the Great Depression and it led to the extreme stability in USA, Europe, China, India?

Looking at North and South Korea from space at night should give any leftist a reason to pause....
 
Economics does not bore me when it is treated in a scientific manner, bothering to dig into intuitions, theories and empirical evidence to figure out what is going on..
oh so you have found out what is going on? So then tell us? Democrats are now openly socialist. Does that mean they are stupid and deadly and we should not vote for them??
 
Looking at North and South Korea from space at night should give any leftist a reason to pause....

Sadly, it doesn't. Welfare is good is their motto, and that overrides any other consideration.
 
You seem to be too spineless to have a position on anything so instead just enjoy everyone's opinion.

I hold strong opinions on very many things. You simply were too busy throwing insults to notice, which quite ironic considering the amount of space I devoted to warning that not paying attention to the people with whom you disagree is as idiotic as it gets.

This realization came to me in very many forms. One of them came from reading the works of Haidt and Pinker on moral cognition and the influence of personality traits on political views. It seems like people pay attention to different things, so it would be wise to pay attention to different people, especially if we don't like what we hear. It also came from reading Sowell to whom you attribute ludicrously simplistic opinions. In many of his work, one of the central argument he makes in favor of markets is their ability to allow information to pin down problematic ideas and practices. As he said, it is sometimes better to start with an inferior plan or theory if it allows information to flow in than with a superior plan or theory that doesn't.

Our knowledge and capacities are inherently limited. That's why you should pay attention when people on the left make an argument and seek to foster as civil a discussion as possible with those who still contend it is important to talk. Your conviction that you are right should not be comforting as people who are wrong usually believe they are right, no more is your conviction that there is just no way you can be wrong.

In all of this discussion and many others, I made numerous attempts to extend you a chance to make a sensible contribution. You never took the stick. Again, this is quite the irony. You call them stupid, but you're so blind you never realized you made yourself the poster boy of the very stupidity I was denouncing. You when you outgrow the age of 5, please warn us.
 
is it scientific to observe that libsocialism just starved 120 million to death? That liberals spied for Stalin while he was slowly starving 60 million to death?
Is it scientific to observe that Cuba does worse than Florida? That East Germany did worse than West Germany? That the modern Democratic party favors the policies of East German and Cuba? Is it scientific to observe that Friedman discovered what caused the Great Depression and it led to the extreme stability in USA, Europe, China, India?

First of all, there is nothing called "libsocialism" and 120 million people didn't starve to death. Some of them were massacred and I am quite sure the highest estimates run at 100 million people, not 120 million people. Second of all, central banks actually do not follow the advice of Friedman. They do not manipulate monetary aggregates and most of them actually rely on explicit inflation rate targets. Third of all, if you're going to insult people for being stupid, at least being your sentences with a capital letter.
 
First of all, there is nothing called "libsocialism"

HIllary is a liberal, Bernie is a socialist. Both in the same party and both endorsed each other. Got it now? There is no better name to describe modern Democrats most of whom now self identify as socialists.
 
I am quite sure the highest estimates run at 100 million people, not 120 million people.

You must be desperate if you want to dispute how many libsocialism killed.
 
Second of all, central banks actually do not follow the advice of Friedman.

Totally Wrong!! Until Friedman central banks had no idea whatsoever about what they were doing. That is why we had the Great Depression, for example. It was before he figured it all out. He wrote Monetary History of USA and explained it perfectly. Whether they control inflation by looking at inflation, unemployment, M1, aggragates, interest rates, etc is trivia. The point is they control inflation and understand that printing money wont cause economic growth. Before Friedman we were cavemen.

PS: I do appreciate that you chose to be in school and so must be libsocialist or an economic eunich to survive there. A curious choice!
 
Third of all, if you're going to insult people for being stupid, at least being your sentences with a capital letter.

Ok I will being my sentences with capital letters so as not to look stupid!!
 
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