NOAA Contradicts Weather Service, Backs Trump On Hurricane Threat In Alabama

[Cardinal]

Maybe this will end this stupidity:

DORIAN Graphics Archive: <br> 5-day Probability of Tropical-Storm-Force-Winds

The animation, from NOAA, has the colorband of 20% to 30% probability of hitting the SE part of Alabama.

Holy cow, there was a 20%-30% chance that Alabama could have seen winds as fast as 30MPH!!!!



With winds at that speed, if you hang your shirt outside to dry without first securing it with a clothes pin, it might blow away and you'll have to chase it for five feet.

 

[Lord of Planar]

I copied a frame from the link I just gave. A 5% chance or greater the the eye would reach well inside Alabama:

You Trump haters and you confirmation bias.

Really gullible with your hatred...

 

[Cardinal]

Serious?

Wow...

Just wow...

Yeah, I know, with winds as fast as 30mph, people would be blowing away like Mary Poppins.

Or not, because 30mph is nothing. Although it's technically possible that your hat could blow away for a few feet and you'd have to bend over to pick it back up.

Oh, the humanity!

 

[Lord of Planar]

Yeah, I know, with winds as fast as 30mph, people would be blowing away like Mary Poppins.

Or not, because 30mph is nothing. Although it's technically possible that your hat could blow away for a few feet and you'd have to bend over to pick it back up.

Oh, the humanity!

That was the chance predicted for winds 39 MPH or more.

I'll make this simple for you.

Take your last word. I have no patience for you. Claim victory if you want. I just can't deal with such idiocy right now.

Goodbye...

 

[AlbqOwl]

And the Goebbels Media eats crow once again.

Yup. I have even posted photos of the trajectories they put out there on three different sites to which the trolls all claimed to be 'fake news' or 'rightwing sources' etc. Well let's see them call NPR and the NOAA 'fake news' or 'rightwing sources.'

Like this one:

Could Hurricane Dorian make it into the Gulf? - al.com

Had the hurricane not made that right turn--something they didn't know in the beginning, and every weather report subsequently always included the caveat that these storms can be unpredictable and do the unexpected--President Trump can easily be forgiven to have included Alabama in the FEMA contingency plan. If he had not and the storm had indeed proceeded west across Florida into Alabama and we were not prepared, he would have been damned for that.

But whatever the case, the tempest in a teapot the haters created out of that one Trumpian issue is just a huge example of the depth of TDS.

 

[Cardinal]

That was the chance predicted for winds 39 MPH or more.

I'll make this simple for you.

Take your last word. I have no patience for you. Claim victory if you want. I just can't deal with such idiocy right now.

Goodbye...

No, it was going to see a max of 30mph. By the way, there are winds of 29mph in Moorhead, Montana right now. Where's their hurricane warning?

 

[Atomic Kid]

The weather services aren't going to broadcast past what they are given. Here is a video from 8/30. It has the projected path going into mid Florida, matching Trump's graph for predictions. In reality, the storm hooked north sooner than predicted. Had it stayed on it's predicted path, starting at 1:11 in the video, it could have continued into Alabama. As it stands, there was some damage at the Alabama/Georgia border.



Hurricane Dorian Google Maps

I find it so funny how the haters of Trump just loose all their marbles and scruples when wanting to push hate.

What are you blind? That cone doesn't even extend beyond the Florida panhandle, never mind Alabama. And it certainly depicted Dorian taking a Northward turn upon reaching Florida. You need to get your sharpie out and fix it pronto!

 

[Cardinal]

Bosler, WY is currently experiencing winds of 26mph. Somebody get FEMA out there!!!

 

[Nickyjo]

:screwy

The indoctrinated must remain on attack until orders are received to stand down and await the next round of propaganda click bait created for them.

Created by Trump. Ain't no propaganda.

 

[Geoist]

Yeah, I know, with winds as fast as 30mph, people would be blowing away like Mary Poppins.

Or not, because 30mph is nothing. Although it's technically possible that your hat could blow away for a few feet and you'd have to bend over to pick it back up.

Oh, the humanity!

I remember when the Chicagoland area got some wind and rain as a result from a hurricane. Don't remember a president tweeting out a warning to us lol.

 

[Crosscheck]

One would have to be naïve to not believe Pence hasn't been in talks with other Republicans what to do with this mess. At some point Pence is going to have to step up to the plate.

 

[Cardinal]

I remember when the Chicagoland area got some wind and rain as a result from a hurricane. Don't remember a president tweeting out a warning to us lol.

If he said anything about Chicago it was probably to yell about black people.

 

[Atomic Kid]

Maybe this will end this stupidity:

DORIAN Graphics Archive: <br> 5-day Probability of Tropical-Storm-Force-Winds

The animation, from NOAA, has the colorband of 20% to 30% probability of hitting the SE part of Alabama.

That animation is from August 24. Trump didn't make his first tweet about Dorian until September 1 and by that time the models were clearly predicting that Dorian would be turning northward up the Atlantic coast perhaps before even reaching Florida. Maybe Trump was too preoccupied daydreaming about playing golf again to pay much attention to the briefings that day.

 

[Greenbeard]

One would have to be naïve to not believe Pence has been in talks with other Republicans what to do with this mess. At some point Pence is going to have to step up to the plate.

Would've been smart for Pence not to get tangled up in this administration's corruption, then. Too late now.

 

[Cardinal]

Not apropos of anything, but here's a fun interactive map showing wind speeds in real time.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

 

[lurchadams]

And the Goebbels Media eats crow once again.

Funny how you omitted these paragraphs from your OP link:

"Some administrator, or someone at the top of NOAA, threw the National Weather Service under the bus," Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, told NPR.

"I am very disappointed to see this statement come out from NOAA," University of Oklahoma assistant meteorology professor Jason Furtado told The Associated Press. He said the controversy over the president's tweets and the NOAA statement undermines public confidence in meteorologists.

Since his original tweet, Trump has revisited the issue almost every day this week, including displaying an altered version of a map showing Hurricane Dorian's projected path to include Alabama.

Republicans
Willing to Prop up their False Prophets and Mislead the Public

 

[AlbqOwl]

That animation is from August 24. Trump didn't make his first tweet about Dorian until September 1 and by that time the models were clearly predicting that Dorian would be turning northward up the Atlantic coast perhaps before even reaching Florida. Maybe Trump was too preoccupied daydreaming about playing golf again to pay much attention to the briefings that day.

The one I posted in my post #80 didn't. Originally they said Puerto Rico would take a direct hit. And then it was never mind. And then they projected that Florida would take a direct hit and possibly the storm could proceed into the Gulf. Then it was never mind. Then they were again predicting that Flordida could be hit or brushed.

What they missed was giving much attention to the direct hit on the Bahamas and the tragic amount of time the storm churned there.

So if you want to paint President Trump as the devil incarnate for being prepared for all possible contingencies given the erratic nature of Dorian, go ahead. But it does make those who do that look like mean spirited, obedient purveyors of TDS.

 

[Cardinal]

The one I posted in my post #80 didn't. Originally they said Puerto Rico would take a direct hit. And then it was never mind. And then they projected that Florida would take a direct hit and possibly the storm could proceed into the Gulf. Then it was never mind. Then they were again predicting that Flordida could be hit or brushed.

What they missed was giving much attention to the direct hit on the Bahamas and the tragic amount of time the storm churned there.

So if you want to paint President Trump as the devil incarnate for being prepared for all possible contingencies given the erratic nature of Dorian, go ahead. But it does make those who do that look like mean spirited, obedient purveyors of TDS.

What trump did wrong was give the public false information about the predictions he was given (which is a Federal crime, not that Republicans care). Then he falsified, in the most childish way possible, the projection on tv with that idiotic marker. And now, all to salve Trump's butt hurt, the head of the NOAA released a statement falsely claiming that NWS was wrong.

Trump's behavior has been utterly disgraceful (and criminal), the people in his administration behaved disgracefully, and his supporters...well...they do what they've always done: lie to protect Donald Trump.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

The one I posted in my post #80 didn't. Originally they said Puerto Rico would take a direct hit. And then it was never mind. And then they projected that Florida would take a direct hit and possibly the storm could proceed into the Gulf. Then it was never mind. Then they were again predicting that Flordida could be hit or brushed.

What they missed was giving much attention to the direct hit on the Bahamas and the tragic amount of time the storm churned there.

So if you want to paint President Trump as the devil incarnate for being prepared for all possible contingencies given the erratic nature of Dorian, go ahead. But it does make those who do that look like mean spirited, obedient purveyors of TDS.

I can't speak for anyone else, but the fact that Trump gave inaccurate information about the Hurricane was never a problem for me...until he lied about it, until I saw the video footage of him holding up this doctored map and treating us all like fools, until he took a sharpie and drew on a weather map in attempt to cover up his incompetence.

He then kept lying about. He then tried to get other people to lie for him.

He lied to my face. He lied to your face. And like a fool you believed it.

It's wrong. He shouldn't be doing that. He is not a good person. He is not a good leader. This is not what good leaders do. Good leaders tell the truth. Good leaders don't try to lie to the public.

Trump's ego is not more important than the country as a whole. Your ego is not more important than the country as a whole. Your favorite political positions are not more important than the country as a whole.

So I will fault him for not admitting his mistake. I will fault him for lying about his mistake and trying to cover it up. I will fault his supporters for trying to lie for Trump and trying to claim that what Trump did, lying to the American public by drawing on an official map, is acceptable. He was wrong to lie about his mistake. He needs to admit that. You need to admit that. His supporters need to admit that.

 

[AlbqOwl]

What trump did wrong was give the public false information about the predictions he was given (which is a Federal crime, not that Republicans care). Then he falsified, in the most childish way possible, the projection on tv with that idiotic marker. And now, all to salve Trump's butt hurt, the head of the NOAA released a statement falsely claiming that NWS was wrong.

Trump's behavior has been utterly disgraceful (and criminal), the people in his administration behaved disgracefully, and his supporters...well...they do what they've always done: lie to protect Donald Trump.

TDS really does not have any limits I guess. So sad for those afflicted with it. The President was exemplary in his preparations for this storm and how he has handled it.

 

[AlbqOwl]

I can't speak for anyone else, but the fact that Trump gave inaccurate information about the Hurricane was never a problem for me...until he lied about it, until he took a sharpie and drew on a weather map in attempt to cover up his incompetence.

He then kept lying about. He then tried to get other people to lie for him.

It's wrong. He shouldn't be doing that. He is not a good person. He is not a good leader. This is not what good leaders do. Good leaders tell the truth. Good leaders don't try to lie to the public.

Trump's ego is not more important than the country as a whole. Your ego is not more important than the country as a whole. Your favorite political positions are not more important than the country as a whole.

So I will fault him for not admitting his mistake. I will fault him for lying about his mistake and trying to cover it up. I will fault his supporters for trying to lie for Trump and trying to claim that what Trump did, lying to the American public by drawing on an official map, is acceptable. He was wrong to lie about his mistake. He needs to admit that. You need to admit that. His supporters need to admit that.

Give me the evidence that he altered that map with a sharpie. Until you do that, the rest of your post is pure TDS.

 

[Cardinal]

TDS really does not have any limits I guess. So sad for those afflicted with it. The President was exemplary in his preparations for this storm and how he has handled it.

Spreading false information and having a temper tantrum after the National Weather Service contradicts you is "exemplary"?

 

[JackA]

And the Goebbels Media eats crow once again.

This is absurd. The weather forecasts speak for themselves. We know what they were. NOAA can't change the historical record with a press release, no doubt issued to appease the President.

 

[Geoist]

Perhaps the darkest day ever for @noaa leadership. Don’t know how they will ever look their workforce in the eye again. Moral cowardice.

Rear Admiral David Titley, Phd. Professor at Penn State and the former Oceanographer of the U.S. Navy

My understanding is the employees have been told they are not to comment on the issue. So I will. As I see it there are two possible drivers leading to the statement. Either NOAA Leadership truly agrees with what they posted or they were ordered to do it. If it is the former, the statement shows a lack of understanding of how to use probabilistic forecasts in conjunction with other forecast information. Embarrassing. If it is the latter, the statement shows a lack of courage on their part by not supporting the people in the field who are actually doing the work. Heartbreaking. I disagree with the essence of this statement. What the Birmingham NWS office sent out Sunday morning was correct and served the public well. It clearly let the public know that they were not at risk from the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. So disappointing.

Bill Read, former director of the National Hurricane Center

The NHC and the WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) are to be commended for the accuracy of the warnings and forecasts and their efforts to communicate the dangers to the emergency management community and to the public. The blemish to a Federal Government carrying out its duty to protect life and property was the erroneous warning issued by a Presidential Tweet. At the time of our glorious leader’s tweet, the chances of significant impact to the state of Alabama was essentially zero. The recent communications by a ‘NOAA Spokesman’ which tried to rewrite history is deplorable. Chastising WFO Birmingham for correctly pointing out that there was no danger to Alabama was unconscionable. NOAA is a great agency with an important mission for the nation. This rewriting history to satisfy an ego dimishes NOAA

Elbert “Joe” Friday, former NWS Director

I told my Secretary (Commerce) and White House on several occasions that I would not “put my thumb on the scales” when I had satisfied myself that NOAA’s science was sound. She backed me, even when prior personal relationships and personal political capital were involved. I was prepared to resign over a couple of issues, rather than take a false stance, but we prevailed on evidence and logic in both cases.

Dr. Kathy Sullivan, former NOAA Administrator, former Astronaut, and National Air and Space Museum’s Lindbergh Fellow

Former NOAA Leadership Weighs In On The Agency’s Rebuke Of A National Weather Service Office

 

[Atomic Kid]

The one I posted in my post #80 didn't. Originally they said Puerto Rico would take a direct hit. And then it was never mind. And then they projected that Florida would take a direct hit and possibly the storm could proceed into the Gulf. Then it was never mind. Then they were again predicting that Flordida could be hit or brushed.

What they missed was giving much attention to the direct hit on the Bahamas and the tragic amount of time the storm churned there.

So if you want to paint President Trump as the devil incarnate for being prepared for all possible contingencies given the erratic nature of Dorian, go ahead. But it does make those who do that look like mean spirited, obedient purveyors of TDS.

First off no weather forecaster would take the output of a single computer model — or even multiple models — and portray it as a weather forecast. Experienced forecasters blend these models with other data and their own skills to produce the most accurate forecast. In any event it was clear in both models and forecasts by at at least 1 to 2 days before Trump's first tweet mentioning Alabama that Dorian would be turning North. Below is the NOAA's own projection cone for Sept. 1st. The same day of Trump's tweet.

View attachment 67263314


That would appear to show that chances of Dorian affecting Alabama to be just about zero chance of happening. The National Weather Service was created for a reason. It's vitally important for the National Weather Service's mission that the people are able to trust that it is giving the most detailed and accurate forecasts possible. Trump is placing his ego above all will only serve in eroding that trust and that can have potentially dangerous implications for people in the path of dangerous storms. Trump could've just said that he was mistaken and that would've been the end of it. We all make mistakes. But if he going to insist on lying about these kind of things. How we to trust what he says if and when a truly major matter of national importance happens to arise? That's not being mean-spirited. That's having rational concerns about man whose judgement we are now all reliant upon.