NFL Draft 2020

[Patriotic Voter]

Miami spent a ton of cap space on defense in free agency, including the highest paid CB in the league to go with the now second highest paid CB in the league. Miami might not draft Tua, but that would leave a question mark at the heart of the team. Miami will draft OT with #18. That could be in addition to an OT at #5, but not likely.

The Dolphins tried to bring Tua in for a private workout before being forced to close their facility, but there were logistical issues and he could not get there. So they did the second-best thing: met him online.

 

[ecofarm]

The Dolphins tried to bring Tua in for a private workout before being forced to close their facility, but there were logistical issues and he could not get there. So they did the second-best thing: met him online.

Pre-season last year the radio began saying it was the "tank for Tua season". He was, at least before his most recent injury, Miami's choice. His medicals are coming back flying colors.

Miami will be forced to trade up. It would be criminally negligent for the Chargers not to make some kind of offer to the Lions; presumably their #6 and their second round pick to move up to #3. This will force Miami to bid and take the #3 spot. Miami will give #5 and a second round pick (#39) and perhaps a fourth round this or next year. The Chargers cannot enter into a serious bidding war, as the ceiling on that would break either team; however, to not offer their first and second for the Lion's pick is unthinkable.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Pre-season last year the radio began saying it was the "tank for Tua season." He was, at least before his most recent injury, Miami's choice. His medicals are coming back flying colors.

Miami will be forced to trade up. It would be criminally negligent for the Chargers not to make some kind of offer to the Lions; presumably their #6 and their second round pick to move up to #3. This will force Miami to bid and take the #3 spot. Miami will give #5 and a second round pick (#39) and perhaps a fourth round this or next year. The Chargers cannot enter into a serious bidding war, as the ceiling on that would break either team; however, to not offer their first and second for the Lion's pick is unthinkable.

The Lions said they are receiving trade offers. Of course noboldy will say who wants the #3 pick.

Lions talking to teams who want to trade up to No. 3 - NFL.com

The Chargers need to trade up for a reason I doubt anyone else ever think about: They signed free agent right tackle Bryan Bulaga last month and lost Russell Okung, who went to Carolina. So one of their needs is left tackile and right tackle is one of the best positions on their offfense. Guess what? Tua Tagovailoa is left-handed. So the Chargers have to make sure the Dolphins don't draft him if the Bengals pick Joe Burrow. But they can trade with the Giants at #4.

 

[Jay59]

Pre-season last year the radio began saying it was the "tank for Tua season". He was, at least before his most recent injury, Miami's choice. His medicals are coming back flying colors.

Miami will be forced to trade up. It would be criminally negligent for the Chargers not to make some kind of offer to the Lions; presumably their #6 and their second round pick to move up to #3. This will force Miami to bid and take the #3 spot. Miami will give #5 and a second round pick (#39) and perhaps a fourth round this or next year. The Chargers cannot enter into a serious bidding war, as the ceiling on that would break either team; however, to not offer their first and second for the Lion's pick is unthinkable.

If Miami wants Tua, they may have to trade up but they can. Detroit is in a nice place. If Miami wants to shut every one else out, it should only take the 3rd round pick on top of #5, maybe even with change back. The Chargers, for example, would need their first, third and something else.

 

[ecofarm]

If Miami wants Tua, they may have to trade up but they can. Detroit is in a nice place. If Miami wants to shut every one else out, it should only take the 3rd round pick on top of #5, maybe even with change back. The Chargers, for example, would need their first, third and something else.

The chart says #5 to #3 costs #40. The Phins will need to pay more because they must outbid someone who would presumably offer their appropriate chart exchange. When the Chargers offer the chart rate (which for #6 to #3 would be about #33), Miami will need to go chart plus a little. That means #39 (Miami's chart rate exchange) plus a little. I'm putting a little at a fourth round. Could be a third. Either way, could be this year or next.

In the end, Miami goes from #5 to #3 for #5 and #39 this year, and a third/fourth round pick next year. If the Chargers make an issue of it, Miami will need to pay a little more than that.

The Chargers are the only team with the draft capital and need which demand they make an offer to the Lions.

 

[ecofarm]

The Lions said they are receiving trade offers. Of course noboldy will say who wants the #3 pick.

Lions talking to teams who want to trade up to No. 3 - NFL.com

The Chargers need to trade up for a reason I doubt anyone else ever think about: They signed free agent right tackle Bryan Bulaga last month and lost Russell Okung, who went to Carolina. So one of their needs is left tackile and right tackle is one of the best positions on their offfense. Guess what? Tua Tagovailoa is left-handed. So the Chargers have to make sure the Dolphins don't draft him if the Bengals pick Joe Burrow. But they can trade with the Giants at #4.

Only the Chargers should be interested in trading up for Tua. Look at any other team's QB and draft capital and you will see only the Chargers must offer the Lions a trade to try for Tua. It doesn't make sense for anyone else.

Why would the Chargers wait to see if Miami moves to #3, hoping to be able to trade at #4. Miami, like the Chargers, are required by all that is reasonable and logical to make the Lions a chart offer.

Neither the Phins nor the Chargers can walk away without making an effort, and neither can wait to #4 because the other will give a first and second round pick for #3 and Tua.

 

[washunut]

The chart says #5 to #3 costs #40. The Phins will need to pay more because they must outbid someone who would presumably offer their appropriate chart exchange. When the Chargers offer the chart rate (which for #6 to #3 would be about #33), Miami will need to go chart plus a little. That means #39 (Miami's chart rate exchange) plus a little. I'm putting a little at a fourth round. Could be a third. Either way, could be this year or next.

In the end, Miami goes from #5 to #3 for #5 and #39 this year, and a third/fourth round pick next year. If the Chargers make an issue of it, Miami will need to pay a little more than that.

The Chargers are the only team with the draft capital and need which demand they make an offer to the Lions.

Is there no thought that someone will try to trade with Washington at #2?

 

[Jay59]

The chart says #5 to #3 costs #40. The Phins will need to pay more because they must outbid someone who would presumably offer their appropriate chart exchange. When the Chargers offer the chart rate (which for #6 to #3 would be about #33), Miami will need to go chart plus a little. That means #39 (Miami's chart rate exchange) plus a little. I'm putting a little at a fourth round. Could be a third. Either way, could be this year or next.

In the end, Miami goes from #5 to #3 for #5 and #39 this year, and a third/fourth round pick next year. If the Chargers make an issue of it, Miami will need to pay a little more than that.

The Chargers are the only team with the draft capital and need which demand they make an offer to the Lions.

This chart is a bit mopre accurate. The one most people use dates back to the 90s and the curve is too steep. That said, Detroit may want a premium.
2020 NFL Trade Value Chart

Is there no thought that someone will try to trade with Washington at #2?

Doubtful. Everyone is confident they will take the consensus best non-QB, Chase Young. I would in their place.

 

[ecofarm]

Is there no thought that someone will try to trade with Washington at #2?

Wash tried to float their willingness to pick Tua, which would create such a scenario. They drafted Haskins #15 last year and he's not a bust (yet). Some say who cares about a #15 contract, the dead cap is nothing after next year. It's possible Wash could pick Tua if there wasn't one special player. Young is in a different league than everyone else and, thus far, no one is buying Wash's attempt to draw offers.

If Wash was serious about picking Tua, Miami would need to trade to #3 and then to #2 so that Wash could still get Young. That's a huge mess. I've done the numbers with the chart I was using. It's possible. In the end, only Wash wins and it's based on a bluff (which could backfire with Miami taking Young).

Wash takes the special player at #2.

This chart is a bit mopre accurate. The one most people use dates back to the 90s and the curve is too steep.
2020 NFL Trade Value Chart

Hopefully that doesn't say #5 to #3 costs more than #40 because Miami is gonna have to bump the chart exchange up to outbid the Chargers.

 

[washunut]

This chart is a bit mopre accurate. The one most people use dates back to the 90s and the curve is too steep. That said, Detroit may want a premium.
2020 NFL Trade Value Chart


Doubtful. Everyone is confident they will take the consensus best non-QB, Chase Young. I would in their place.

Washington needs to fill a bunch of holes. I just don't see this kid from Ohio State being a potential hall of famer. Could be wrong.

 

[ecofarm]

Washington needs to fill a bunch of holes. I just don't see this kid from Ohio State being a potential hall of famer. Could be wrong.

Everyone I've read says Young is a different class of player. That must be considered in any trade. It's like trading into or out of the top ~8, the tier 1 top grade shelf above everyone else handful of players. Young is a step above them. His rookie contract might turn out to be one of the best dollar for impact contracts ever (late round surprises aside).

One cannot trade Washington out of Young without paying a fee for that. #2 is special this year, a premium, without equal. For Washington to give the Lions Young (by trading to behind #3) would cost the farm. The only way to do it is to trade to #3 first, then trade to #2. Otherwise, the premium cost for pushing Washington out of Young is prohibitive.

 

[washunut]

Everyone I've read says Young is a different class of player. That must be considered in any trade. It's like trading into or out of the top ~8, the tier 1 top grade shelf above everyone else handful of players. Young is a step above them. His rookie contract might turn out to be one of the best dollar for impact contracts ever (surprises aside).

One cannot trade Washington out of Young without paying a fee for that. #2 is special this year, a premium, without equal. For Washington to give the Lions Young (by trading to behind #3) would cost the farm. The only way to do it is to trade to #3 first, then trade to #2. Otherwise, the premium cost for pushing Washington out of Young is prohibitive.

All good points. Just think that someone with a bunch of picks might want to bundle them for Young. Filling one hole at a time will get Rivera fired in 2-3 years IMO.

 

[ecofarm]

All good points. Just think that someone with a bunch of picks might want to bundle them for Young. Filling one hole at a time will get Rivera fired in 2-3 years IMO.

A farm could buy #1. Lightning strikes happen. Logic dictates that both the Chargers and Phins make offers to the Lions. The Phins have 3 first round picks, two second. No one can outbid them. So, unless the Chargers wanna get crazy, they make the obligatory chart offer of their #6 and their second round pick and then step aside able to say, "we tried".

 

[Jay59]

A farm could buy #1. Lightning strikes happen. Logic dictates that both the Chargers and Phins make offers to the Lions. The Phins have 3 first round picks, two second. No one can outbid them. So, unless the Chargers wanna get crazy, they make the obligatory chart offer of their #6 and their second round pick and step aside able to say, "we tried".

This depends on two evaluations--Tua and Herbert. If they are at all close, you stay put and take what falls to you.

Washington needs to fill a bunch of holes. I just don't see this kid from Ohio State being a potential hall of famer. Could be wrong.

That's exactly the type of player he is. HoF is a tall order, but think of the Bosa brothers and consider that he may be better.

 

[ecofarm]

This depends on two evaluations--Tua and Herbert. If they are at all close, you stay put and take what falls to you.

Tua's medicals have all come back gold and there's no contest. If Burrow didn't throw 60 TDs last year (in the SEC), there'd be a question about the #1 pick. Still, some say Tua is the best QB in the draft. Most say a guaranteed healthy Tua is #1. No one says Herbert is #1. No one says maybe he's better than Burrow.

Neither the Phins nor Chargers can tell their fans, "we decided to let them take Tua". The Chargers can't say, "well, we knew we'd lose a bidding war so we decided to be nice and let the Phins pick him at #5 instead of trying to jump ahead." That's inconceivable incompetence.

There's no, "we decided **** it". Both teams offer their first and second. Then the Chargers better get the **** out of the way because the Phins suck and I do not need some bs from the Chargers when we'd be drafting first if could manage to even tank successfully.

40 years.

Four decades.

I was in middle school when Marino lost a Superbowl (1983 or 84) and the Phins had already been a disappointment for years. At that point, I was a Raiders fan (living in Miami and sitting in the visitors section of the Orange Bowl) anyway.

Don't **** with us, Chargers. We got nothing to lose. It's not a new city. Everyone knows we suck. We could give three first round picks and two second for #3 and then draft Love and no one would be shocked. You wanna get crazy?

Make your fan-obligatory offer and step aside.

 

[ecofarm]

What I want to avoid is giving up #18 or #26 in the process. That's why the Chargers need to not make it an issue.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

The chart says #5 to #3 costs #40. The Phins will need to pay more because they must outbid someone who would presumably offer their appropriate chart exchange. When the Chargers offer the chart rate (which for #6 to #3 would be about #33), Miami will need to go chart plus a little. That means #39 (Miami's chart rate exchange) plus a little. I'm putting a little at a fourth round. Could be a third. Either way, could be this year or next.

In the end, Miami goes from #5 to #3 for #5 and #39 this year, and a third/fourth round pick next year. If the Chargers make an issue of it, Miami will need to pay a little more than that.

The Chargers are the only team with the draft capital and need which demand they make an offer to the Lions.

What is all this "chart exchange" stuff?

Miami has the most draft capital in the league with a whopping 14 picks. After #5, their next two are #18 (from Steelerts, CB Minkah Fitzpatrick) and #26 (Texans, LT Leremy Tunsil). Their second-round pick is #39. The Chargers have not traded anything, so all the picks they have are their "earned" seven.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Is there no thought that someone will try to trade with Washington at #2?

Ron Rivera is on record saying the Redskins are not interested in trading down for exactly the same reason I would stay there: to avoid missing out on an elite talent.

 

[ecofarm]

What is all this "chart exchange" stuff?

Miami has the most draft capital in the league with a whopping 14 picks. After #5, their next two are #18 (from Steelerts, CB Minkah Fitzpatrick) and #26 (Texans, LT Leremy Tunsil). Their second-round pick is #39. The Chargers have not traded anything, so all the picks they have are their "earned" seven.

"The Chart". You know.

Haha, but seriously that's about it. I read on Espn today the commonly used chart apparently originated with a coach many years ago and another chart is being used today. I don't suppose either is official or even statistically robust. Which makes it funny. Someone posted a chart earlier; perhaps the one I read about as more in use today.

Anyway, The Chart, which is never wrong, shows what it should generally cost to trade from one pick to another. It gives a very rough baseline for trade fairness. I suppose its biggest "flaw", however inherent that may be, is the ignoring of all factors other than exchanging draft picks. That's why I use it as a baseline offer and then consider multiple teams (in this case, only two) being interested.

The Phins have another second round pick, #56.

Anyone could throw everything at a pick, including next year(s) picks and current players on contract. So no one is ever out of the bidding really.

I've used the famous Jimmy Johnson chart to try to evaluate how teams will typically value picks, although analytics-friendly teams are likely to be using something closer to the Chase Stuart chart, which suggests that the picks at the top of the draft are less valuable than they might seem. Because teams that trade up typically pay a premium, I've incorporated that into the pick swaps.

2020 NFL Mock Draft with all trades - 32 picks, 32 trades from Bill Barnwell

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Washington needs to fill a bunch of holes. I just don't see this kid from Ohio State being a potential Hall of Famer. Could be wrong.

Who said he is Hall of Fame material? People are calling him "a special talent" and "better than the Bosa brothers" but that is not exactly the same thing. Nobody is calling him a "once in a lifetime player" like they did when Jadeveon Clowney was available.

That said, it is certainly true Chase Young is "the best player in the draft" because the one guy most likely to be picked before him, Joe Burrow, has been most often criticized for having a weak arm. So physically, Young is a better DE than Burrow is a QB.

BTW I am able to watch most Ohio State games down here, so I got plenty of chances to watch the Bosas and Young over the last five years. I also have seen Burrow play as both a Buckeye and Tiger.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

All of this "The Dolphins need Tua" talk is totally ignoring the player who did manage to have a private workout in Miami: J.K. Dobbins. He was already in the area, so flying to MIA before they had to close their facility was unnecessary. He is not the #1 RB this year, but projected as a first round pick. Will Dobbins still be on the board at #18?

 

[washunut]

Who said he is Hall of Fame material? People are calling him "a special talent" and "better than the Bosa brothers" but that is not exactly the same thing. Nobody is calling him a "once in a lifetime player" like they did when Jadeveon Clowney was available.

That said, it is certainly true Chase Young is "the best player in the draft" because the one guy most likely to be picked before him, Joe Burrow, has been most often criticized for having a weak arm. So physically, Young is a better DE than Burrow is a QB.

BTW I am able to watch most Ohio State games down here, so I got plenty of chances to watch the Bosas and Young over the last five years. I also have seen Burrow play as both a Buckeye and Tiger.

Maybe you are right. I just see the draft as a huge crap shoot. So the way I look at it the more picks the better unless it is obvious a talent is really special. For me there are so many great athletes on a team like Ohio State that I wonder how much of any player's production is due to his great teammates.

I admit to being wrong on the Bosas for the same reason. Perhaps we can look back at this in 2-3 years and see which prediction was correct.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Maybe you are right. I just see the draft as a huge crap shoot. So the way I look at it the more picks the better unless it is obvious a talent is really special. For me there are so many great athletes on a team like Ohio State that I wonder how much of any player's production is due to his great teammates.

I admit to being wrong on the Bosas for the same reason. Perhaps we can look back at this in 2-3 years and see which prediction was correct.

When Nick Bosa was on the team, I never thought Chase Young was going to be as good as him. After Nick quit, I kept thinking the Buckeyes missed him. However, my uncle, a former Buckeye who lives in the Twin Cities, could already see Chase showing how good he really is. Throughout the year Young played a full season without Bosa, he reminded me of the Bosa brothers. So the tape does show Young was not just a mirage because of his teammate who wore $97.

 

[ecofarm]

The Bucs need a Day 1 starter at right tackle to protect him and a sure-handed, pass-catching running back to open things up with the screen game. After that, they really need a third wide receiver to fill the void left by Breshad Perriman (36 catches, 645 yards, 6 TDs in 2019), who signed with the New York Jets in free agency. If the Bucs can address those key areas, they will walk away from the draft in good shape.

How the Bucs can build in the 2020 NFL draft around Tom Brady - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Blog- ESPN

 

[Mongidig]

Ron Rivera is on record saying the Redskins are not interested in trading down for exactly the same reason I would stay there: to avoid missing out on an elite talent.

You do realize that coaches and GMs aren't always truthful, especially this time of year. I'd be saying the same thing as Rivera. Play hard to get. They probably will stay at 2 but if someone is in love with their QB they may give up a lot to make sure they get him.