For the last two years my favorite candidates have been Elizabeth Warren for her vast policy resumé, Kamala Harris for her steely focus and energy, and Beto O'Rourke for his ability to energize a crowd. All of these are incredibly important traits, but I think what they lack is a philosopher's soul. For that I give you: Pete Buttigieg.
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Being a numbers guy, I just had to see where independents stand on the candidates you and I mentioned. Way too early to put much if any weight behind the numbers as they are dynamic. But I do find them interesting as in national elections independents usually decide who wins and loses. Whichever candidate won the independent vote has won the presidency with one lone exception going back to FDR. Obama in 2012 was the exception as he lost independents 48-51 but with the larger base, keeping it close was all that mattered. Independents only. Questions 22A through 22T for all candidates.
Biden 39% favorable, 41% unfavorable 20% undecided minus 2
Pete Buttigieg 15% favorable, 16% unfavorable, 69% undecided, minus 1. Numbers don't mean a thing with him.
Harris 23% favorable, 40% unfavorable, 38% undecided, minus 17 making up the minus 17 points among the 38% undecided will be hard. Very possible though.
Hickenlooper 13% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 64% undecided, minus 10. Like Pete, numbers don't mean anything as he has way too many undecided. He's one of my favorites.
Klobuchar 18% favorable, 28% unfavorable, 55% undecided, minus 10. Another of my favorites, numbers don't mean a thing for her either.
Beto O’Rourke 25% favorable, 38% unfavorable, 38% undecided, minus 13. Just like Harris.
Sanders 38% favorable, 46% unfavorable, 18% undecided, minus 8. His numbers mean a lot.
Warren 25% favorable, 43% unfavorable, 32% undecided, minus 18. I personally think a Warren nomination let's Trump back into the game as could Harris. Personal opinion only.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6ujvi5p8z1/econTabReport.pdf
Then go to question 23, Who do you like more, Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren? 53% of independents don't like either on.
For comparison, independents view of Trump. 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable, 10% don't know. minus 6. Question 45A.
Is it too early to take these numbers seriously. For most Democratic candidates it is. But for me who does a monthly forecast, it isn't. Although I won't begin my forecasts until the end or first part of next year. For me, even if these numbers are so early in the game they don't mean much, right now they are telling me when it comes to independents, Warren and Harris stand a chance of being another Hillary Clinton type candidate which let's Trump back into the game. That being said, I wouldn't make any forecast on the above numbers other than to say that Warren and Harris has the potential of being a huge mistake in an election that is the Democrats to lose. But so too was 2016.