Is The Pandemic Going To Claim 200,000 To One Million US Lives?

[Paradoxical]

Now I get it.


Conspiracy websites.



Got it

Yea.Those conspiracy nutsos who give mathematical examples. They need to be outlawed.

 

[vegas giants]

Yea.Those conspiracy nutsos who give mathematical examples. They need to be outlawed.

I believe in free speech....even for nuts

 

[CaughtInThe]

now is the section of the show where we transition from "it's just the common cold" to "who guessed wrong".

 

[Paradoxical]

now is the section of the show where we transition from "it's just the common cold" to "who guessed wrong".

The flu is a VIRUS!! Fill in the blanks here. This NEW thing is called the Corona _____?

You will have just three guesses.

 

[Anagram]

Well, the "experts" have revised their model. The Imperial model that came out of the UK (which many people referenced when it came out) had estimated that the U.K. would have 500,000 deaths and the U.S. something like 2-2.5 million. They have revised the U.K. numbers down to 20K, which puts us at around 80-90K. Keeping in mind that they way overestimated before, and knowing how these trends work, they are likely to still be on the high side. It's safer to be wrong high than wrong low.

I'm fairly sure the 500,000 deaths for the UK and 2 million plus for the US numbers were projections for if states took no action in response to the virus and life carried on as before. I would certainly hope that the actions to shut down the world that have taken place would have lower projections. Otherwise there would have been no point to taking such drastic action.

 

[CaughtInThe]

The flu is a VIRUS!! Fill in the blanks here. This NEW thing is called the Corona _____?

You will have just three guesses.

ha. such a creative way to protect your boy Rush and the transition to "who guessed wrong".

 

[Grand Mal]

I seriously doubt that myself. Is the pandemic going to claim that many US lives?

Possibly. The 290 people who died last night caught the virus a week or two ago and there's been 12,730 new cases in the last 24 hours.

United States Coronavirus: 176,518 Cases and 3,431 Deaths - Worldometer

The graphs are below the table. They don't look like flattening out yet. But it could happen any day so there's hope it might not get that bad in the US.
Much depends on compliance with the protocols, I understand. Keep your distance!

 

[Fishking]

I'm fairly sure the 500,000 deaths for the UK and 2 million plus for the US numbers were projections for if states took no action in response to the virus and life carried on as before. I would certainly hope that the actions to shut down the world that have taken place would have lower projections. Otherwise there would have been no point to taking such drastic action.

I read that the Oxford model heavily criticized the Imperial model for vastly underestimating the spread of the virus. Their estimates were that the U.K is possibly up to 50% infected, which vastly drops the morbidity rates. If that's true, then the numbers drop pretty quickly after that. You can't continue growth of numbers once you pass 50%.

 

[Threegoofs]

I seriously doubt that myself. Is the pandemic going to claim that many US lives?

It all depends upon how we respond to it.

It’s quite clear.

Fauci and Birx were crystal clear in their remarks that have been totally misinterpreted on this board.

If we do things perfectly, we could get 100,000 deaths. It could go to 200,000.

If we do nothing, the estimates are one to 2.2 million deaths.

The difference will depend on how well we respond in the areas of social distancing and ventilator/PPE support in the hard hit areas.

What you ‘believe’ about this literally doesn’t matter. This is biology.

 

[Lutherf]

I seriously doubt that myself. Is the pandemic going to claim that many US lives?

I just crunched some numbers and since March 15th the number of deaths has increased, on average, by 65%/day. At that rate everyone in the US will be dead in two weeks and everyone in the world will be dead before the end of the month.

 

[vegas giants]

I just crunched some numbers and since March 15th the number of deaths has increased, on average, by 65%/day. At that rate everyone in the US will be dead in two weeks and everyone in the world will be dead before the end of the month.

Try to remain calm

 

[Dayton3]

I seriously doubt that myself. Is the pandemic going to claim that many US lives?

Probably not.

I figure the worst month in the U.S. will be April. After that better testing and better treatments will start driving the death rate down significantly. Also the rising death toll in April will emphasize the importance of people taking precautions which will also serve to limit the virus's spread. That plus warmer weather.

 

[maxparrish]

Possibly. The 290 people who died last night caught the virus a week or two ago and there's been 12,730 new cases in the last 24 hours.

United States Coronavirus: 176,518 Cases and 3,431 Deaths - Worldometer

The graphs are below the table. They don't look like flattening out yet. But it could happen any day so there's hope it might not get that bad in the US.
Much depends on compliance with the protocols, I understand. Keep your distance!

Actually, a closer look does show a flattening of the growth of new confirmed infections. Here is one of their charts, with my 'green arrow' pointing to this...

 

[Grand Mal]

Actually, a closer look does show a flattening of the growth of new confirmed infections. Here is one of their charts, with my 'green arrow' pointing to this...

View attachment 67276839

That's what needs to happen. I understand people die a week or two after contracting the virus so if the new cases is flattening out now then deaths might be expected to follow in a week or two.

 

[Moderate Right]

Up to 21 votes now and only 3/21 think we will definitely hit those numbers. Everyone else is not so sure.

 

[Lovebug]

It all depends on how serious we take this, if we are listening to the experts and stay put as we are told. Otoh, if we think we know better than our epidemiologist and attend a 1,000+ mega church ( I believe the pastor has been arrested, finally), we will see a much higher number.

 

[maxparrish]

And there are other indications that the growth rate of death is falling:

I charted the growth rate in a moving average between the 17th and 30th (inclusive). So far it is trending downward and may hit the inflection point of reduction of the growth rate as early as April 5th, although I expect that could be a week or so later.

 

[Mongidig]

It all depends on how serious we take this, if we are listening to the experts and stay put as we are told. Otoh, if we think we know better than our epidemiologist and attend a 1,000+ mega church ( I believe the pastor has been arrested, finally), we will see a much higher number.

This is very true. I don't think enough people are taking this serious enough. I don't think people understand what six feet looks like. I think a lot of dumb or ignorant people are gonna die because of this. My original prediction of 67 thousand was based on more and more shutdowns and people doing the right thing. I'm just not seeing it though. I just saw a group of 10 people huddled together on a hiking trail.

 

[Threegoofs]

This is very true. I don't think enough people are taking this serious enough. I don't think people understand what six feet looks like. I think a lot of dumb or ignorant people are gonna die because of this. My original prediction of 67 thousand was based on more and more shutdowns and people doing the right thing. I'm just not seeing it though. I just saw a group of 10 people huddled together on a hiking trail.

Boy.

Are you gonna be upset when you find out how Trump dismissed it when it really counted back in February.

Or maybe not.

Because Trump love is higher on your hierarchy than facts.

 

[Phys251]

yes, let's just believe those in authority and the so called "experts"

One of those "experts", Dr. Fauci just a month ago said the "Death toll will be 2% if you just do the math" and now other "experts say it will be 0.66 which is a 65% LESS death toll than he said.

I'm fine with those who have expertise in a certain field but here we have one that should have learned math. I said long ago that the death toll is not going to be anywhere near what the "experts" said. This is why I don't believe when someone says a certain "expert" said so and so because that is just believing someone because they have a few initials after their name. I do my own checking.

You do realize how predictions work, right? You do know that there is going to be a range of predictions by experts and that the actual course of events will very likely fall somewhere in between, right?

 

[gulfman]

With the complete total failure of Democratic Governors like Cuomo and Newsome I can see the numbers being much higher.

 

[joko104]

The covid-19 pandemic? The perpetual influeza pandemic? All pandemics combined? Over what period of time? How far back and how far into the future? The USA has been in a pandemic from Chinese originated corona viruses for many years. There is a perpetual pandemic in the USA because there is a perpetual flow of viruses and new viruses from China that will never stop with no even pretending any one is going to try to stop it.

If the total time from the beginning many years ago and then stretching into the possibly perpetual future? Millions, tens of millions. More. The government and society is fully agreeable to a perpetual pandemic from corona and any other lethal viruses from China. No one in any position opposed this continuing indefinitely. It is too profitable to stop and therefore too costly to stop.

So the further back in time and longer into the future the time frame for the OP poll is, the greater the death count. In addition to the perpetual new influenzas from China, even more lethal viruses than covid-19 will becoming soon from China. Simply, the pandemic will never end and the is only opposition to trying to end it. It is perpetual. Since it causes death, there is no final death count ceiling. Who knows, maybe one of China's next one will exterminate every human on earth - such as it did to every person on any Caribbean Island. Not one indigenous person of any Caribbean Island (Cuba, Haiti etc) survived.

So the real answer might ultimately be "everyone," however many billions that is. Test kits and ventilators would not, could not and never will end the perpetual pandemic.

 

[Paradoxical]

You do realize how predictions work, right? You do know that there is going to be a range of predictions by experts and that the actual course of events will very likely fall somewhere in between, right?

And when they are wrong like CNN and MSNBS has been wrong countless times it is forgotten. The trick is to make your spread far and wide enough and no time frame like a bible prediction and you can always say "It isn't over yet. Lets wait until next year for the full numbers and when that comes and they are STILL way off, we hear crickets and everyone has forgotten how wrong they were.

Or they can always say something like, "We (and that is usually just one blogger) are happy here at (fill in the blanks) that our prediction was on the high side and the public deserves the credit for following orders and keeping a safe distance. It COULD have been much worse." If it is higher, they can say "This was much more aggressive than anyone could have ever imagined."

NO ONE in MSM or government are ever called to task for being wrong. (Unless his name is Trump)

 

[Paradoxical]

The covid-19 pandemic? The perpetual influeza pandemic? All pandemics combined? Over what period of time? How far back and how far into the future? The USA has been in a pandemic from Chinese originated corona viruses for many years. There is a perpetual pandemic in the USA because there is a perpetual flow of viruses and new viruses from China that will never stop with no even pretending any one is going to try to stop it.

If the total time from the beginning many years ago and then stretching into the possibly perpetual future? Millions, tens of millions. More. The government and society is fully agreeable to a perpetual pandemic from corona and any other lethal viruses from China. No one in any position opposed this continuing indefinitely. It is too profitable to stop and therefore too costly to stop.

So the further back in time and longer into the future the time frame for the OP poll is, the greater the death count. In addition to the perpetual new influenzas from China, even more lethal viruses than covid-19 will becoming soon from China. Simply, the pandemic will never end and the is only opposition to trying to end it. It is perpetual. Since it causes death, there is no final death count ceiling. Who knows, maybe one of China's next one will exterminate every human on earth - such as it did to every person on any Caribbean Island. Not one indigenous person of any Caribbean Island (Cuba, Haiti etc) survived.

So the real answer might ultimately be "everyone," however many billions that is. Test kits and ventilators would not, could not and never will end the perpetual pandemic.

joko, what I find strange about this whole thing is this new Political Correctness that has infiltrated into all corners of the world like George Orwell wrote about where we are ordered and coerced not to tell the truth but to mask it and pretend the elephant in the room doesn't exist. In my OP on WHO named the virus, it was a sorry sight to behold how vehemently those on the left defended this being called COVID-19 instead of the China virus which was traditional for 130 years. Now we know that both China and the heads of WHO are in bed together and it was the WHO that named this pandemic after both China and them being slow to inform the United States of the potential problem, by which time numerous flights to and from China had taken place, thereby infecting all of America.

So, rather than the public being made aware of this, the vast majority of them think this is just some virus that somehow Trump is responsible for because he acted too slow. This is the narrative our evil media and the Democrats are portraying to the sheep and they are buying it like they did the Russian Collusion lie.

 

[gboisjo]

With the complete total failure of Democratic Governors like Cuomo and Newsome I can see the numbers being much higher.

Aren't you one of those far right Trump followers who called the Corona Virus a silly hoax?