Is it now Biden VS Warren?

[NeverTrump]

That's what Nate Silver seems to be thinking...



There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3

 

[Phys251]

That's what Nate Silver seems to be thinking...

View attachment 67264098

There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3

Not *yet*. But for reasons I don't want to disclose right now, currently I hope they are the final matchup for the Democratic nomination.

 

[NeverTrump]

Not *yet*. But for reasons I don't want to disclose right now, currently I hope they are the final matchup for the Democratic nomination.

I don't see how Warren loses the momentum she's got. I don't see what Dem candidate can do to her in a debate that she hasn't already addressed. I don't see Joe Biden easily attacking her either.

Yang has a little momentum too, will he attack Biden or Warren next debate?

 

[Phys251]

I don't see how Warren loses the momentum she's got. I don't see what Dem candidate can do to her in a debate that she hasn't already addressed. I don't see Joe Biden easily attacking her either.

Yang has a little momentum too, will he attack Biden or Warren next debate?

Warren's growth has been slow but steady. Anyone who is a Warren fan should see this as a good sign. Contrast that with, for instance, Kamala, who spiked after the first debate but soon receded back to the single digits.

 

[NeverTrump]

Warren's growth has been slow but steady. Anyone who is a Warren fan should see this as a good sign. Contrast that with, for instance, Kamala, who spiked after the first debate but soon receded back to the single digits.

I know, I'm disappointed in Kamala for not getting the momentum. I do so love her, but I'm OK with Warren.

 

[haymarket]

I think Silver has the top two correct. If after North Carolina votes, it is still the way it is now with Black voter support going to Biden, Biden will win unless Bernie drops out and the liberal support goes to Warren in the rest of the contests.

 

[NeverTrump]

unless Bernie drops out and the liberal support goes to Warren in the rest of the contests.

I believe he will do that in the next few months. Bernie will have an easier time endorsing Warren than he ever did Clinton, but the Bernie Bros don't like to admit he eventually did just that. Warren looking like she'll win Iowa too!

 

[Abbazorkzog]

I just hope Biden doesn't run as an Independent if (or Bernie WHEN) he loses to Warren... if he does he'd bring the Obama Centrists with him and give us 4 more years of Trump, and if Bernie ends up running third party... well, he might actually pull votes from TRUMP now that I think about it...

 

[haymarket]

I believe he will do that in the next few months. Bernie will have an easier time endorsing Warren than he ever did Clinton, but the Bernie Bros don't like to admit he eventually did just that. Warren looking like she'll win Iowa too!

Well with Clinton he fought until the bitter end - then he got on board. I suspect you are right and it will be a lot easier with Warren - especially if Biden is the alternative.

 

[OrphanSlug]

That's what Nate Silver seems to be thinking...

The basis for the thinking is polling, but the numbers behind the polling suggest a problem within the party.

It is very true from a polling perspective that in some states there is a good argument that we have two front runners, Biden and Warren. *But,* it is also very true that nationally we might see it be more Biden, Warren, and Sanders or Buttigieg (probably because of certain other states like New Jersey and California.)

We are still seeing a group of hopefuls compete for both furthest left and which statements resonate with an audience waiting to applaud something, like O’Rourke just after his infamous gun grab comment from the last debate. It jumped him over a full percentage point, seeing Harris be the biggest loser in the exchange of ranking before and after that debate. But Harris, O'Rourke, Castro, Yang and several others are still fighting for scraps.

The bulk of support is still behind Biden, Warren, and Sanders or Buttigieg as a "Tier 1" top 3 nationally and in some states.

The case is there for either a Tier 1 top 2 or Tier 1 top 3, what it comes down to is how certain more left leaning states (arguably) place a 3rd hopeful up against the front running 2.

The heat of the primary season, and perhaps leading up to it, still may see enough drop out to shuffle the deck once more. It could be just brutal enough that no candidate can come back and grab enough Independents (depending on poll you like, that could go either way now.)

 

[NeverTrump]

The basis for the thinking is polling, but the numbers behind the polling suggest a problem within the party.

It is very true from a polling perspective that in some states there is a good argument that we have two front runners, Biden and Warren. *But,* it is also very true that nationally we might see it be more Biden, Warren, and Sanders or Buttigieg (probably because of certain other states like New Jersey and California.)

We are still seeing a group of hopefuls compete for both furthest left and which statements resonate with an audience waiting to applaud something, like O’Rourke just after his infamous gun grab comment from the last debate. It jumped him over a full percentage point, seeing Harris be the biggest loser in the exchange of ranking before and after that debate. But Harris, O'Rourke, Castro, Yang and several others are still fighting for scraps.

The bulk of support is still behind Biden, Warren, and Sanders or Buttigieg as a "Tier 1" top 3 nationally and in some states.

The case is there for either a Tier 1 top 2 or Tier 1 top 3, what it comes down to is how certain more left leaning states (arguably) place a 3rd hopeful up against the front running 2.

The heat of the primary season, and perhaps leading up to it, still may see enough drop out to shuffle the deck once more. It could be just brutal enough that no candidate can come back and grab enough Independents (depending on poll you like, that could go either way now.)

Coming from NJ. Our vote doesn't really matter. We are dead last in the primary, and by the time our voting date comes around, the party has already rallied around the candidate who has won the majority of states/delegates. If Warren is the winner of the primary by then, no other candidate will be decided by NJ.

 

[Perotista]

That's what Nate Silver seems to be thinking...

View attachment 67264098

There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3

Here's the latest from RCP averages of all recent polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

I still think it's the big three, Biden, Warren and Sanders. At the moment Biden should be worried if the progressives who support Warren and Sanders would combine on one of them. The progressives seems to be the larger voting block within the Democratic Party, 35% which Warren and Sanders are splitting. You add Harris's 6% to that, that's 41%. Probably enough for any one of those three progressives to win if they can decide on a single candidate. The more moderate, willing to work across the aisle Biden, in my opinion won't be the Democratic nominee.

Personally, I think Biden would be better for all of America, not just the progressive wing of the Democratic Party which Warren, Sanders and Harris would be. But primary season isn't about all of America or America as a whole. It's all about party politics.

 

[NeverTrump]

Here's the latest from RCP averages of all recent polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

I still think it's the big three, Biden, Warren and Sanders. At the moment Biden should be worried if the progressives who support Warren and Sanders would combine on one of them. The progressives seems to be the larger voting block within the Democratic Party, 35% which Warren and Sanders are splitting. You add Harris's 6% to that, that's 41%. Probably enough for any one of those three progressives to win if they can decide on a single candidate. The more moderate, willing to work across the aisle Biden, in my opinion won't be the Democratic nominee.

Personally, I think Biden would be better for all of America, not just the progressive wing of the Democratic Party which Warren, Sanders and Harris would be. But primary season isn't about all of America or America as a whole. It's all about party politics.

One thing: Progressives hate Harris.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Coming from NJ. Our vote doesn't really matter. We are dead last in the primary, and by the time our voting date comes around, the party has already rallied around the candidate who has won the majority of states/delegates. If Warren is the winner of the primary by then, no other candidate will be decided by NJ.

While true, we do have Iowa (41 delegates) and South Carolina (54) in the first group in February with California (416,) Massachusetts (91,) North Carolina (110,) Texas (228,) and Virginia (99) in the early March set.

The point I was trying to make is Iowa polling suggested a Tier 1 top 2, while California and Texas polling suggest a Tier 1 top 3.

Within the first several rounds of primaries and delegate collection (even if projected) we have a split in how many are considered Tier 1, and that puts stress on how the media covers the actions of those front runners as we get through that busy March primary season.

 

[NeverTrump]

While true, we do have Iowa (41 delegates) and South Carolina (54) in the first group in February with California (416,) Massachusetts (91,) North Carolina (110,) Texas (228,) and Virginia (99) in the early March set.

The point I was trying to make is Iowa polling suggested a Tier 1 top 2, while California and Texas polling suggest a Tier 1 top 3.

Within the first several rounds of primaries and delegate collection (even if projected) we have a split in how many are considered Tier 1, and that puts stress on how the media covers the actions of those front runners as we get through that busy March primary season.

I would say the field could get considerably smaller after Iowa. Warren looks like she'll win that and a number of candidates, namely Beto, Buttigieg and Harris have all staked their campaigns on Iowa. Beto probably wants to win texas though

 

[Perotista]

One thing: Progressives hate Harris.

I wonder why? She stands for everything they do. She say and stands rigidly firm on the progressive side of the issues. Perhaps it's her past?

 

[NeverTrump]

I wonder why? She stands for everything they do. She say and stands rigidly firm on the progressive side of the issues. Perhaps it's her past?

There's still a healthy majority of the party who hate cops.

 

[joko104]

I don't see how Warren loses the momentum she's got. I don't see what Dem candidate can do to her in a debate that she hasn't already addressed. I don't see Joe Biden easily attacking her either.

Yang has a little momentum too, will he attack Biden or Warren next debate?

Yang's campaign is "vote for me and I'll give myself and my wife $1000 a month for life." Totally opposed to a progressive welfare system, he insists that the wealthiest people in the USA NEED an extra $1000 a month each plus for all their adult children and spouses - plus it is outrageous to think that rich people should pay for their own college educations. Blue collar workers should pay for rich people's education and give rich people welfare out of their paychecks.

 

[joko104]

There's still a healthy majority of the party who hate cops.

No question the Democratic Party is the party that loves criminals - most of all foreign criminals - and hates police, rule of law and the Bill Of Rights.

 

[Phys251]

I just hope Biden doesn't run as an Independent if (or Bernie WHEN) he loses to Warren... if he does he'd bring the Obama Centrists with him and give us 4 more years of Trump, and if Bernie ends up running third party... well, he might actually pull votes from TRUMP now that I think about it...

Biden is not the one whom we need to worry about running third-party.

 

[joko104]

I wonder why? She stands for everything they do. She say and stands rigidly firm on the progressive side of the issues. Perhaps it's her past?

The East Coast MSM and super rich control the Democratic Party, not East Coast super rich progressives. Elizabeth Warren is Harvard so she will be the party's nominee. Democratic voters opinions are irrelevant because the super rich of the world tell them how to vote via their media, press and Internet outlets. Democrats will vote for Warren because they are being told to vote for Warren, just like they were told to vote for Hilary Clinton.

No one personally likely Elizabeth Warren. In elections she has proven to be less likable than Hilary Clinton. But it doesn't matter. Democratic voters do whatever the super rich tell them to do. Always has. Always will.

 

[joko104]

I just hope Biden doesn't run as an Independent if (or Bernie WHEN) he loses to Warren... if he does he'd bring the Obama Centrists with him and give us 4 more years of Trump, and if Bernie ends up running third party... well, he might actually pull votes from TRUMP now that I think about it...

Neither Biden nor Sanders will run as independents.

 

[OrphanSlug]

I would say the field could get considerably smaller after Iowa. Warren looks like she'll win that and a number of candidates, namely Beto, Buttigieg and Harris have all staked their campaigns on Iowa. Beto probably wants to win texas though

Makes sense. For Harris, O'Rourke, Yang, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro and several others is it Iowa or bust (at least Iowa and South Carolina at the end of February to test the minority vote before throwing in the towel.)

The question before is the result of the polling before and after the last debate.

Sanders, Harris and Castro fell, probably Harris being the biggest loser in that context.

Warren and Buttigieg capitalized, but it is Buttigieg that has the most to gain and also make Iowa / South Carolina a decision point.

All with Biden, Warren, and Sanders (or Buttigieg) being that Tier 1 Top 3.

Then we get California in the Super Tuesday March 3rd, the deck will shuffle one last time... with many others calling it quits.

 

[Chaddelamancha]

No, it's not. Bernie and Warren have different bases. You can't assume that if either drops out, they automatically get the support of those people.

 

[Perotista]

There's still a healthy majority of the party who hate cops.

Kind of what I thought. It's her past, not her stances or political ideology. Well, well.