If Trump is reelected, how do you think the economy will fare?

[Guyzilla]

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

 

[Cardinal]

1)The pandemic will continue to be handled badly, so everything about the economy you see now will continue in tandem with the pandemic.

2)The vaccine, when available, will be rolled out in a chaotic and ineffective way, so see point #1.

So the economy will continue in the way you see it now.

 

[Chomsky]

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

I don't like your choices, so with no 'other' option I didn't cast a vote.

The economy will do as well as the pandemic response. The response is ****, and the economy is ****.

I do not believe Trump is inclined to fight the pandemic, nor is he capable, nor is he predisposed to put capable people in charge to fight it for him. Consequently, we have the economic disaster he has left us. Ditto, for our kids' educations.

Because Joe Biden will put Dr. Fauci in charge of the pandemic, and I believe Fauci will be successful - as he was with HIV & H1N1 - I believe the economy will do well under Biden. Definitely better than Trump is doing.

 

[Mr Person]

1)The pandemic will continue to be handled badly, so everything about the economy you see now will continue in tandem with the pandemic.

2)The vaccine, when available, will be rolled out in a chaotic and ineffective way, so see point #1.

So the economy will continue in the way you see it now.

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

 

[Luther]

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

Well, I definitely believe we wont get the Trump 4, 5 and even 6% economy(LOL)

 

[Cardinal]

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

But isn't the premise of the thread that Trump gets a second t-

You know what? Never mind. Yes, they'll blame Biden.

 

[Guyzilla]

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

How successful do you think they will be in blaming all on Biden? they did a pretty good job of blaming Obama for GWB.

The right wing, RIGHT NOW, is blaming Dems, for all the problems, economic or health. They have resurrected the Cloroquine garbage, as they need it, to blame the Dems for all of it. They are saying, that thousands of people are dead, cuz the libs are smearing Cloro, to hurt Trump. They will say that it all could have been cured, by simply not attacking Trump

 

[Chomsky]

1)The pandemic will continue to be handled badly, so everything about the economy you see now will continue in tandem with the pandemic.

2)The vaccine, when available, will be rolled out in a chaotic and ineffective way, so see point #1.

So the economy will continue in the way you see it now.

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

Seeing as we are constantly growing by leaps & bounds in the number infected, and that a vaccine along with anti-virals are likely next year, I think we will be well on the road to recovery by the end of the year (2021).

We don't need total heard/vaccination immunity. Some posit 5% (or even 10%) of us have already been infected. If true, we may be 20% (or more) infected by the end of next year. If we can get another 20% vaccinated (kids for school + essential workers is a good start), we will be in a position to greatly retard the spread of the virus (40%).

It may not be perfect. It may not be eradicated. But it will be far more manageable. If R0 gets below unity (1), then we are good. I believe immunity/vaccination levels of 30 or 40%, with minimal sensible societal precautions, should keep us below R0 = 1.

Obviously though, this is predicated with the disease producing individual immunity. We don't know this for sure, but it seems to be occurring at least in the short term. Let's hope!

 

[Cardinal]

Seeing as we are constantly growing by leaps & bounds in the number infected, and that a vaccine along with anti-virals are likely next year, I think we will be well on the road to recovery by the end of the year (2021).

We don't need total heard/vaccination immunity. Some posit 5% (or even 10%) of us have already been infected. If true, we may be 20% (or more) infected by the end of next year. If we can get another 20% vaccinated (kids for school + essential workers is a good start), we will be in a position to greatly retard the spread of the virus (40%).

It may not be perfect. It may not be eradicated. But it will be far more manageable. If R0 gets below unity (1), then we are good. I believe immunity/vaccination levels of 30 or 40%, with minimal sensible societal precautions, should keep us below R0 = 1.

Obviously though, this is predicated with the disease producing individual immunity. We don't know this for sure, but it seems to be occurring at least in the short term. Let's hope!

Sorry, Chomsky, but your projection assumes an orderly vaccine rollout. That ain't happening. And I'm going to be invited into a Playboy Playmate orgy before we get to R0 of 1 (let alone below 1) so long as Trump is President, because, again, that assumes an orderly vaccine rollout.

If everybody wore a mask, we would get to R0 of 1. If everybody wore a mask, socially distanced and abided by controlled lockdowns, we'd get to R0 < 1. In today's climate (and it will be even worse in a second trump term)...that is absolutely not happening.

 

[Chomsky]

Sorry, Chomsky, but your projection assumes an orderly vaccine rollout. That ain't happening. And I'm going to be invited into a Playboy Playmate orgy before we get to R0 of 1 (let alone below 1) so long as Trump is President, because, again, that assumes an orderly vaccine rollout.

If everybody wore a mask, we would get to R0 of 1. If everybody wore a mask, socially distanced and abided by controlled lockdowns, we'd get to R0 < 1. In today's climate (and it will be even worse in a second trump term)...that is absolutely not happening.

You don't believe we can get to 15-20% vaccination levels by the end of next year? By mandating kids, first-responders/essential workers, and perhaps federal employees/contractors? If not, why?

Also, do you doubt we will get to some non-trivial level of infected in the next 18 months? Say, maybe 15% or more?

We don't need herd immunity. 30% will greatly impede the spread. In fact, 40% is often thought to be the lower-end of herd immunity.

 

[Cardinal]

You don't believe we can get to 15-20% vaccination levels by the end of next year? By mandating kids, first-responders/essential workers, and perhaps federal employees/contractors? If not, why?

Also, do you doubt we will get to some non-trivial level of infected in the next 18 months? Say, maybe 15% or more?

We don't need herd immunity. 30% will greatly impede the spread. In fact, 40% is often thought to be the lower-end of herd immunity.

I'm doubting it because that requires a national coordination (not happening under a first term, let alone a second trump term when he's going to be a hundred times more dysfunctional and sociopathic), and because a vaccine is likely to provide a limited immunity time. Vaccinating enough people to get to herd immunity in the absence of a national coordination will be whack-a-mole from Hell.

 

[swing_voter]

The economy will take off and do well no matter who is in office.

 

[Chomsky]

I'm doubting it because that requires a national coordination (not happening under a first term, let alone a second trump term when he's going to be a hundred times more dysfunctional and sociopathic), and because a vaccine is likely to provide a limited immunity time. Vaccinating enough people to get to herd immunity in the absence of a national coordination will be whack-a-mole from Hell.

Ah, alright. You're still under the thread's premise of a Trump 2nd term. Fair enough. I should have been more specific in my first post to you, which was generic in nature.

Yeah, under Trump it becomes more dicey. Under Biden, it is doable I believe.

Here is the scenario I see in apolitical terms. And yes, it may even work under Trump - key word 'may'.

1st roll-out to health-care workers. They get a battery of vaccinations per their job, already. The hospital infrastructure to do this is already in place. Target group (20M).

2nd, first-responders. Also well positioned with an infrastructure in place. Target group (2M).

3rd, school kids. There's an infrastructure to ensure compliance (schools) and delivery (various current providers). Target group (k-12 = 50M). Add another 20M for college kids (infrastructure in place to verify insurance, can be easily modified to require a vaccination submittal). Total target group (70M).

4th, federal employees. Again, a compliance infrastructure is already in place (HR). Target group = 2M. Add state & municipal employees for another 18-20M. Total target group (20M)

That's 112M targets, where the delivery & compliance infrastructure is already in place to various degrees. To hit 15% of our total populace, we would need to vaccinate just under 50M (44%) of the groups above. Hell, healthcare-workers, first-responders, and government workers alone get us there! Throw-in a smattering of school kids, and we're at 20%.

I think this is doable, Cardinal. Very doable. Mark my words: By the end of next year we will be well on the road to recovery. A combination of vaccination(s), antivirals, and herd immunity, will get us on the right track.

 

[Cardinal]

Ah, alright. You're still under the thread's premise of a Trump 2nd term. Fair enough. I should have been more specific in my first post to you, which was generic in nature.

Yeah, under Trump it becomes more dicey. Under Biden, it is doable I believe.

Here is the scenario I see in apolitical terms. And yes, it may even work under Trump - key word 'may'.

1st roll-out to health-care workers. They get a battery of vaccinations per their job, already. The hospital infrastructure to do this is already in place. Target group (20M).

2nd, first-responders. Also well positioned with an infrastructure in place. Target group (2M).

3rd, school kids. There's an infrastructure to ensure compliance (schools) and delivery (various current providers). Target group (k-12 = 50M). Add another 20M for college kids (infrastructure in place to verify insurance, can be easily modified to require a vaccination submittal). Total target group (70M).

4th, federal employees. Again, a compliance infrastructure is already in place (HR). Target group = 2M. Add state & municipal employees for another 18-20M. Total target group (20M)

That's 112M targets, where the delivery & compliance infrastructure is already in place to various degrees. To hit 15% of our total populace, we would need to vaccinate just under 50M (44%) of the groups above. Hell, healthcare-workers, first-responders, and government workers alone get us there! Throw-in a smattering of school kids, and we're at 20%.

I think this is doable, Cardinal. Very doable. Mark my words: By the end of next year we will be well on the road to recovery. A combination of vaccination(s), antivirals, and herd immunity, will get us on the right track.

Under a non-kakistocracy, yes, that is a good rollout and quite doable. The only edit I would suggest is replace #3 with the elderly, because that's the group most likely to get sick and die. Unless you're approaching this from the angle that kids are most likely to contract the disease and most likely to spread it, or at the very least vaccinating them sooner would allow parents to finally free themselves of this nightmare. This detail is probably a philosophical sticking point more than anything.

Under a kakistocracy, there's not a chance your proposed rollout would happen.

 

[Chomsky]

Under a non-kakistocracy, yes, that is a good rollout and quite doable. The only edit I would suggest is replace #3 with the elderly, because that's the group most likely to get sick and die. Unless you're approaching this from the angle that kids are most likely to contract the disease and most likely to spread it, or at the very least vaccinating them sooner would allow parents to finally free themselves of this nightmare. This detail is probably a philosophical sticking point more than anything.

Under a kakistocracy, there's not a chance your proposed rollout would happen.

That's fair enough. Thanks.

Actually, I was attacking this from the point of existing infrastructure to enable the fastest market penetration. Every group I mentioned has an existing infrastructure in place to distribute and monitor compliance. Both are important.

And yeah, we've got to get those kids vaccinated. Once they go back to school, they become the Typhoid Mary's amongst us.

Check-out what less than a week of kids' summer-camp became, if you're not already aware:

(NY Post) Georgia camp closed due to 260 positive tests for COVID-19, CDC says

 

[Luckyone]

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

The questions in the poll you forgot to ask is

"will there even be an economy with Trump still in office"

Trump guarantees that nothing will get done right. Another 4 years in office, there might not be an economy left.

 

[Luckyone]

Well, I definitely believe we wont get the Trump 4, 5 and even 6% economy(LOL)