Government Shutdown Looming....$100K ticket Fundraiser at Maralago

[Unitedwestand13]

Yeah, I do too. But the reason why I asked you where you are from is that shapes what those "something's" are.

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DACA and CHIP both have bipartisan support and could have passed the House and senate if they had been put up for a vote.

It is not the democrats fault that neither DACA or CHIP have been brought to the floor.

It is not the democrats fault that bipartisan compromise bills have died in the house.

It is the “hastart rule” that the republicans have dogmaticly adhered to that kills compromise bills in the House.

I think that democrats should be afraid of losing their base supporters.

 

[Fiddytree]

DACA and CHIP both have bipartisan support and could have passed the House and senate if they had been put up for a vote.

It is not the democrats fault that neither DACA or CHIP have been brought to the floor.

It is not the democrats fault that bipartisan compromise bills have died in the house.

It is the “hastart rule” that the republicans have dogmaticly adhered to that kills compromise bills in the House.

I think that democrats should be afraid of losing their base supporters.

I agree, it here’s the things that I notice:

1) Nationally, Democrats are split on how much of a priority DACA actually is. Oh, they overwhelmingly support it, but when you ask them if they favor a shutdown, here’s what happens:
-Fall, 2017: 34% of Dems support, 20% independents support
-Mid January, 2018: 54% of Dems support

Those are terrible numbers. Those numbers just tank in less liberal places.

2) These red seat Dems are elected and reelected on different priorities from the base of the Democratic Party. Most often, it’s because they are seen as “friendly, but sometimes disagree with” the Republican Party. What they want is “a fair shake” with President Trump and the GOP. That’s a huge difference from what Democratic primary voters want.

3) In these red states, the number of Democratic voters and elected officials is low. In some areas, they are experiencing a drought not seen in several decades. It’s not because those Democrats previously in office became more conservative, no, it’s because they were perceived as too liberal. And that was *before* Elizabeth Warren started capturing people years ago.

4) They may be tolerant, maybe, of a government shutdown, but it has to be something they care about. DACA—they don’t care about. CHIP, they may actually care about—again, maybe.

5) Look at the competition in those states. I won’t publicly say where I am, but I have been very close to the competition of a vulnerable Congressional Democrat, and they are batty. Not terribly far from Roy Moore territory—minus the personal scandals. The margin of error for this Democrat was incredibly small—nearly recount territory. But if you make this one Democrat unpopular enough by going after a government shutdown for DACA, you’re *really* risking that seat. And I have to tell ya, in my area, they haven’t had this few Democrats elected in any post for the state since the 1920s.

A lot of the folks wanting this Shutdown for DACA are in comfortable positions. They can afford to do this. But, you know, think about the margins from the AHCA this spring and summer. Consider what you’re playing with. This move, right now, is a play to the base, but it’s awfully dangerous, because you’re risking resetting the Congressional map to where it was when Clinton may have won: A Democratic slaughter.


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[Unitedwestand13]

I agree, it here’s the things that I notice:

1) Nationally, Democrats are split on how much of a priority DACA actually is. Oh, they overwhelmingly support it, but when you ask them if they favor a shutdown, here’s what happens:
-Fall, 2017: 34% of Dems support, 20% independents support
-Mid January, 2018: 54% of Dems support

Those are terrible numbers. Those numbers just tank in less liberal places.

2) These red seat Dems are elected and reelected on different priorities from the base of the Democratic Party. Most often, it’s because they are seen as “friendly, but sometimes disagree with” the Republican Party. What they want is “a fair shake” with President Trump and the GOP. That’s a huge difference from what Democratic primary voters want.

3) In these red states, the number of Democratic voters and elected officials is low. In some areas, they are experiencing a drought not seen in several decades. It’s not because those Democrats previously in office became more conservative, no, it’s because they were perceived as too liberal. And that was *before* Elizabeth Warren started capturing people years ago.

4) They may be tolerant, maybe, of a government shutdown, but it has to be something they care about. DACA—they don’t care about. CHIP, they may actually care about—again, maybe.

5) Look at the competition in those states. I won’t publicly say where I am, but I have been very close to the competition of a vulnerable Congressional Democrat, and they are batty. Not terribly far from Roy Moore territory—minus the personal scandals. The margin of error for this Democrat was incredibly small—nearly recount territory. But if you make this one Democrat unpopular enough by going after a government shutdown for DACA, you’re *really* risking that seat. And I have to tell ya, in my area, they haven’t had this few Democrats elected in any post for the state since the 1920s.

A lot of the folks wanting this Shutdown for DACA are in comfortable positions. They can afford to do this. But, you know, think about the margins from the AHCA this spring and summer. Consider what you’re playing with. This move, right now, is a play to the base, but it’s awfully dangerous, because you’re risking resetting the Congressional map to where it was when Clinton may have won: A Democratic slaughter.


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Democrats are not advocating for a shutdown. They are simply refusing to have CHIP and DACA become bargaining tools, especially since the GOP were the ones who allowed the funding for chip to lapse.

There had been a bipartisan deal in place- the one negotiated by Senators Graham and Durbin— and instead of agreeing to it, trump blew it away. Mitch McConnell could have put the bipartisan deal up to a vote but he is cowardly saying that he will only pass what the president will consider signing.

 

[Fiddytree]

Democrats are not advocating for a shutdown. They are simply refusing to have CHIP and DACA become bargaining tools, especially since the GOP were the ones who allowed the funding for chip to lapse.

There had been a bipartisan deal in place- the one negotiated by Senators Graham and Durbin— and instead of agreeing to it, trump blew it away. Mitch McConnell could have put the bipartisan deal up to a vote but he is cowardly saying that he will only pass what the president will consider signing.

Right now, because of political jockeying from Schumer and McConnell on the floor yesterday, the floor rules as of yet require a threshold of 60 votes. Given that, they do need the 8 Democratic votes to keep the government open. Those 8 Democrats become fodder for the Democratic base if they agree to the CR, general election voters if they don’t.

What’s keeping the red Dems afloat is dissent from Republicans like Flake and Graham. Once that goes away—the calculation goes to the Dems.


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[Unitedwestand13]

Right now, because of political jockeying from Schumer and McConnell on the floor yesterday, the floor rules as of yet require a threshold of 60 votes. Given that, they do need the 8 Democratic votes to keep the government open. Those 8 Democrats become fodder for the Democratic base if they agree to the CR, general election voters if they don’t.

What’s keeping the red Dems afloat is dissent from Republicans like Flake and Graham. Once that goes away—the calculation goes to the Dems.


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Let them vote to keep the government open one more time, but if chip and DACA are used to extort the democrats again, than there will be no stopping the trump shutdown.

Democrats will need to put the blame where it belongs: the incompet trump administration and the republican majority.

 

[Fiddytree]

Let them vote to keep the government open one more time, but if chip and DACA are used to extort the democrats again, than there will be no stopping the trump shutdown.

Democrats will need to put the blame where it belongs: the incompet trump administration and the republican majority.

CHIP would be off the table as soon as the 6 year extension is included in the current CR from the House, which it is.


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[Unitedwestand13]

CHIP would be off the table as soon as the 6 year extension is included in the current CR from the House, which it is.


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But the cr does not last 6 years, it only lasts a month.

The immigration debate will not be settled in a month.

 

[Fiddytree]

But the cr does not last 6 years, it only lasts a month.

The immigration debate will not be settled in a month.

CHIP would be extended for 6 years rather than the 10 years that makes more fiscal and political sense, but it wouldn’t become an argument in, say, March. That fight would be over.


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[Unitedwestand13]

CHIP would be extended for 6 years rather than the 10 years that makes more fiscal and political sense, but it wouldn’t become an argument in, say, March. That fight would be over.


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And daca?

What about them?

Don’t they have a say in this?

 

[SheWolf]

Should Obama and Bush golfed while Americans were dying in the sand box?

Presidents should never golf. How is that?

 

[Port & Starboard]

Presidents should never golf. How is that?

Why shouldn't any president not golf?

Maybe cornholing on the back lawn is OK with you? :lamo

 

[Middle_Ground]

Manchin in favor of CR. Donnelly announces he is in favor of CR.

This may be the sign for a red Dem departure, as it should be. This isn’t the time to massage the egos of the Dem primary voters.


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Okay so 2 Repubs off 2 on Still sounds like 50 and not 60 to me.
Manchin's smart make an anouncement before the shutdown saying your in favor of something you know won't pass.

 

[Fiddytree]

And daca?

What about them?

Don’t they have a say in this?

You said "if" CHIP and DACA would be used as hostages again. If the House CR is accepted, CHIP wouldn't be a hostage again. DACA could be, but not CHIP.

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[Middle_Ground]

Should Obama and Bush golfed while Americans were dying in the sand box?

I have no idea why you are asking me. I'm not talking about golfing. I could careless about golfing. The fact his clubs are making money off his golfing bugs the crap outta me but otherwise I don't care. So I don't know what your point is.

 

[Linc]

Right now, because of political jockeying from Schumer and McConnell on the floor yesterday, the floor rules as of yet require a threshold of 60 votes. Given that, they do need the 8 Democratic votes to keep the government open. Those 8 Democrats become fodder for the Democratic base if they agree to the CR, general election voters if they don’t.

What’s keeping the red Dems afloat is dissent from Republicans like Flake and Graham. Once that goes away—the calculation goes to the Dems.


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With Graham, Paul, and McCain out, GOPs have 48 votes, 12 short of 60. That assumes a Yes from Lee, who has never voted for a CR. This is now the Cotton/Freedom circus, the next generation of the Cruz/TEA circus ..;.

 

[Fiddytree]

You said "if" CHIP and DACA would be used as hostages again. If the House CR is accepted, CHIP wouldn't be a hostage again. DACA could be, but not CHIP.

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Heitkamp votes for the CR.

Another red state Sen defects.

Told ya it's becoming necessary for them to do this. Heitkamp voted against the tax bill and the healthcare bills last year. There's only so much give.

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[Middle_Ground]

I hope dems don't fold either. It will make me sad. Already have my own concerns for many people I know.

I understand. I started screaming at every person I knew and even those that I didn't know back in Feb of 2016...Get your **** together, do whatever you have to do but get right, because **** is going to get ugly.

 

[Absentglare]

Its not an excuse, its a rebuttal of the criticism that its soley their fault. The reason for a shutdown is primarily partisan ship on all sides, and among the citizens.

sigh more lies. The reason for the shutdown is because democrats care about dreamers and children, and republicans don't

 

[Absentglare]

Manchin in favor of CR. Donnelly announces he is in favor of CR.

This may be the sign for a red Dem departure, as it should be. This isn’t the time to massage the egos of the Dem primary voters.


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They're not. Republicans chose to dismantle DACA and cut funding for CHIP so they could use them to force the hands of democrats. Republicans own what happens as a result of those actions and democrats know it.

Republicans have been leveraging the fact that democrats care more about the American public for decades. To republicans, it's a weakness, and you're completely wrong to pretend that they're right.

 

[Absentglare]

Before we go any further: do you live in a vulnerable seat with a red seat Dem?

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Did you see the 18 point lead on a generic ballot?

I find it hard to believe that dems would be so spineless so as to cave for the 28% of ignorant constituents who are essentially blindly blaming democrats.

 

[JMR]

I'm nor defending Congress for anything. I'm dispelling the notion that this is "Truuuuuuuump's fault!".

In 2013 Trump was quite explicit that the shut down was the president's fault. He stated T\that good leadership could have prevented a shut down, and that all bad things start at the top.

So, I have not seen any reality based evidence that if that was true in 2013 it is not true in 2018. I am not referring to Trump's ability to convince himself of his own BS. So was he lying then or now? Or both?

 

[Linc]

I hope so. I hope they abandon they anti immigrant anti Muslim crap too. I find the president absolutely appalling.

If it makes you feel any better, Trump's been more coherent the last two days, whether campaigning in PA yesterday or at the pro-life rally today, minus opinions on that, plus meeting with Chuck and making 'some progress'. That's actually a good sign if we get a deal.

If McConnell keeps the House bill only, we'll have a shutdown. It'll be fluid all night, not so comforting. And then day-to-day. When we get an agreement, I expect a 'limited framework' DACA, to be settled by 03/05 or a shutdown then.

Border security and wall/fence money will have to be included. Frameworks for GOP concerns on immigration issues also need to be done Now. CHIP, Military, Disaster Relief, Opioids, etc. will be relatively easy ...

 

[Fishking]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-anniversary-with-gala-benefit-at-mar-a-lago

Maybe they know something we don't know.
If the government shuts down should the president be at his private club at a $100k a ticket fundraiser?

I fail to see how those two things are even remotely related.

 

[Fiddytree]

Did you see the 18 point lead on a generic ballot?

I find it hard to believe that dems would be so spineless so as to cave for the 28% of ignorant constituents who are essentially blindly blaming democrats.

That 18 point lead (or about 5-6 in others) doesn't mean that there's even a built in +1 Dem advantage for any given seat.

What you would be doing, however, is sacrificing a 40-50% Trump country Dem voter for a 80-96% Trump country GOP voter. That becomes especially hazardous in the Senate. Remove but 1, maybe 2 of those seats (and remember, the Dems need 4/5 of these seats to have a shot at cracking the Senate majority) and take a wild guess what you get for another Congressional term.

If we were playing with those odds, you could count the AHCA/BCRA as law, along with Medicaid and even Medicare reform in addition. You could probably see a Kennedy swing vote SCOTUS go down as well.

You're not caving, you're minimizing the impact of those "ignorant constituents."

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[Fiddytree]

Graham headed to Schumer's office.

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