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The whole title of this thread is false to begin with. If the evidence in support of a claim is virtually nil, it 'probably' would not be true.
How did you reach this conclusion? something can be true yet have no evidence, the absence of evidence simply cannot be used to infer that some claim is "probably untrue" this is not a logical conclusion, feel free to explain the reasoning though.
Having said that, the evidence that God exists and created the universe is almost obvious, the presence of the universe cannot be explained scientifically because scientific explanations only describe the behavior of already existing material.
So science cannot ever in any way explain the presence of the universe, therefore if you seek an explanation you must be willing to consider explanations that are not scientific, that is supernatural explanations, there really is no other choice, believe me I tried for many years and failed.
If you disagree with me (as some here do) then I can only attribute that to the fact that you simply have not yet grasped the absolute seriousness of all this, you have not honestly considered the situation, the universe's presence is impossible to ever explain scientifically - this is very serious and you must grasp that in order to move forward in your search for knowledge.
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