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I think if the election were held today there'd be a fair chance of the House flipping, but even then I doubt it. The geographical layout of the various voting bases and the house positions makes it unlikely. The issue with a wide poll is that strengthening of views in a Republican or Democratic strong hold towards their party could SEEM impactful but ultimately isn't. It doesn't matter if the Republicans win a staunchly republican district by a 30% margin instead of a 20% one, and vise versa for the Democrats.
The bigger issue however is that the election isn't tomorrow. It's over a year away. The lingering effects and impact of the shut down is likely being massively overblown in the media, as they tend to do with every major event that is the focus of conversation at a particular time, and will probably have a much smaller impact come next year. There are so many factors and situations that can occur over a years time, not the least of which is the economy going in either direction by that point, that it's hard to really speculate.
I think if you had the election today, the Democratic party would at least have a CHANCE, albiet a slim one, of taking back the House. But that's a somewhat irrelevant statement in the grand scheme of things.
I agree, but that is all we have to go on is what is happening today. No one knows what the issues, events or anything else that may come into play tomorrow. I have posted quite a few times over the last couple of days that come Feb/Mar of next year, the shutdown will be long forgotten. Other issues and events will have taken its place.
I have found out through history that sea change election for the Democrats, the generic figure has to be 7 points in their favor. For the Republicans, it is 5 points. Why this is so, I don't know, but I have advanced a theory on it a couple of times.