Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

[Jay59]

In order to try again, they need to try once. LOL.

Fair enough. At least you agree there will be a majority to use.

 

[dairyair]

Fair enough. At least you agree there will be a majority to use.

I agreed to nothing. I don't partake in silly partisan projections.

 

[Jay59]

I am not a politician. The politicians allow it. In fact, many have hired illegals, which is illegal. tRUMP companies have hired them.
tRUMP just raided some companies and rounded up some 700. But the criminal employers are getting off scott free.

IMO also, it's why there hasn't been any meaningful immigration reform in over 30 yrs. They are wanted and needed. And the Rs are no more complicit than the Ds. Each party could have done something, neither has.
One of tRUMPs signature campaign issues. 2 yrs he had Rs in congress control. Not a bill was introduced.

I have not seen that. Do you have confirmation?

 

[dairyair]

I have not seen that. Do you have confirmation?

Can you name 1 employer ever prosecuted?
How about tRUMPs own golf courses, where they fired the illegals after they were caught.

 

[Indie guy]

You can definitely attribute an economy, over time, if a president's policies harms or benefits the middle class given that the engine of jobs and growth is derived from that group more than any other.

Tariffs, especially if they are on essential resource markets, shrink disposable incomes on the middle and lower classes disproportionately than they do for the upper classes. Therefore, with enough time, the president's policy of tariffs is definitely affecting the economy.

Definitely agree, and I mentioned Trump's tariff threats have caused the market to plunge downward which could affect the overall economy. In the big picture, however it's more than just who is president that causes market fluctuations.

 

[Erod]

Definitely agree, and I mentioned Trump's tariff threats have caused the market to plunge downward which could affect the overall economy. In the big picture, however it's more than just who is president that causes market fluctuations.

A 2% drop is not a "plunge."

 

[jaeger19]

Recessions are predicated by interest rate dynamics, i.e. the inversion of the yield curves. We've witnessed an almost complete inversion of the Treasury yield curve, notwithstanding the 30 year Treasury (which is now sitting close to all issuances less than 1 year). Furthermore, trade tension has created a tremendous amount of global uncertainty, which only exacerbates yield inversion and puts downward pressure on private domestic investment. And we're already witnessing investment shortfalls in the aggregate measurements such as private domestic investment, net domestic investment for private business, etc.... All we need is a catalyst. China using military force to subdue the Hong Kong protests would ravage international markets, creating even more uncertainty and greater yield curve inversion. This is the longest economic expansionary period in the history of the U.S. economy. The tea leaves tell us we're running on fumes. The Fed's recent rate decline is further evidence.

I'd be shocked if the U.S. wasn't in recession before 2021.

thanks for the reply. Two caveats here is that the predictive value of the inversion may now be limited because of the historic actions done by the fed in quantitative easing. We now may be pushed closer to the inversion and thus more likely to have inversions without the subsequent recession.

And the second caveat would be the catalyst necessary.

The trade tensions are a destabilizer. I would think that in the US case.. it would be considered an aberration due to having an idiot in office. However, Trump winning another term may create more uncertainty in US trade relationships. Particularly if his administration sees it as a vindication of their trade policies.


However, would not China and foreign markets having uncertainty.. mean more stability for the US as the last one standing? I would think we may be able to find more investment as the one of the most stable economies.

 

[OscarLevant]

Uh huh. Have you ever looked at the global economy? I'll answer that for you. Nope. Your sole interest resides in that partisan bucket you wear on your head. WTFU, indeed.

You guys are the ones saying Trump is responsible for the economy.

Please spare this forum with your BS.

 

[humbolt]

You guys are the ones saying Trump is responsible for the economy.

Please spare this forum with your BS.

You .might look at growth numbers for the EU and China now. Well, I would, and did. You? Nope. You take a note found in a fortune cookie and claim it's comprehensive and complete. Then you wrap it up in, "I don't even wanna talk to you 'cause you're a poopy head." Cute.

 

[OscarLevant]

You .might look at growth numbers for the EU and China now. Well, I would, and did. You? Nope. You take a note found in a fortune cookie and claim it's comprehensive and complete. Then you wrap it up in, "I don't even wanna talk to you 'cause you're a poopy head." Cute.

The argument is not even about rational arguments.

Like I said, the right has been saying Trump is responsible for the economy. I never thought that was a rational argument but that is what the right has been saying.

So, now that the prospects are not good, all of the sudden, the right is going to get rational ? Give me a break.


We point out all of his evil crap he does, why he is a despicable human being, and his crimes, and the right argues " economy".

Well, if the economy tanks the right has no argument whatsoever to support Trump, and don't give me any crap about scotus, hell, Jeb or Kasich would have done the same.


That is the point.

 

[ludin]

The argument is not even about rational arguments.

Like I said, the right has been saying Trump is responsible for the economy. I never thought that was a rational argument but that is what the right has been saying.

So, now that the prospects are not good, all of the sudden, the right is going to get rational ? Give me a break.


We point out all of his evil crap he does, why he is a despicable human being, and his crimes, and the right argues " economy".

Well, if the economy tanks the right has no argument whatsoever to support Trump, and don't give me any crap about scotus, hell, Jeb or Kasich would have done the same.


That is the point.

*sigh* market corrections are just going to happen.
however there isn't one policy that trump has done that would
cause a recession.

in fact the markets have been higher than what they probably should be for longer than they should be.
i am not worried about a market correction and actually welcome one.

 

[humbolt]

The argument is not even about rational arguments.

Like I said, the right has been saying Trump is responsible for the economy. I never thought that was a rational argument but that is what the right has been saying.

So, now that the prospects are not good, all of the sudden, the right is going to get rational ? Give me a break.


We point out all of his evil crap he does, why he is a despicable human being, and his crimes, and the right argues " economy".

Well, if the economy tanks the right has no argument whatsoever to support Trump, and don't give me any crap about scotus, hell, Jeb or Kasich would have done the same.


That is the point.

Like it or not, Trump's economic policies have resulted in an increase in growth. Those policies, and their results will invariably be compared to his immediate predecessor. I don't make those rules - I merely recognize them.

I'm not about to get all worked up over a very minor indicator that's not dispositive of anything more right now than a Fed fund requirement that likely needs to be marginally reduced somewhat. You can, if you like.

 

[Kushinator]

A 2% drop is not a "plunge."

In a single trading session, it's highly improbable. Wouldn't you agree that the U.S. stock market has been unusually volatile?

 

[Bucky]

In a single trading session, it's highly improbable. Wouldn't you agree that the U.S. stock market has been unusually volatile?

Do you know what the VIX is?

Interactive historical chart showing the daily level of the CBOE VIX Volatility Index back to 1990. The VIX index measures the expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 days implied by S&P 500 index options. The current VIX index level as of August 15, 2019 is 21.18.

VIX Volatility Index - Historical Chart | MacroTrends

The VIX reached 72.67 in 2008. Right now it is 17.39. So the market has been extremely calm.

 

[Kushinator]

Do you know what the VIX is?

Yes... i konw what the VIX is. It measures the expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 days.

The VIX reached 72.67 in 2008. Right now it is 17.39. So the market has been extremely calm.

Actually, the VIX hit 80.8 on November 20, 2008. But that's not important. The trade war is spooking markets.

 

[Erod]

In a single trading session, it's highly improbable. Wouldn't you agree that the U.S. stock market has been unusually volatile?

That's just what they do from time to time.

(That's actually when the real money is made.)