China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Property.

[chuckiechan]

India's North-South Transit Corridor:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadesh...ding-a-new-silk-road-of-its-own/#73fe2ac7a90e

Wade Shepard ,

As China encircles India with its Belt and Road initiative (BRI) — the 2013 rebranding of a longer-standing project to put China at the heart of a new pan-Eurasian economic order — India has a continent-crossing plan of its own. It’s called the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), and it aims to better link India in with Iran, Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

So we can label this pending dust up as "When China's Soft Power Fails".

China and India border dispute - CNN

If China were to gain control of the Siliguri Corridor, it could cut India off from its northeastern states and stake its own claim to the territory. And this isn’t just some trivial collection of states: They host the upper half of the Brahmaputra River, which flows through Bangladesh and drains into the Indian Ocean. Whoever controls this river controls the freshwater supply and flow to Bangladesh. Assuming dominance over the Brahmaputra River would put China just a few steps from accessing the Indian Ocean via Bangladesh – by coercion, if necessary. Access to the Indian Ocean is a Chinese imperative because it would enable Beijing to bypass the many maritime chokepoints in the South China Sea and would make it much harder for the U.S. Navy to hem China in.

So what we have is India's route to Eurasia, and China wanting one of their own into Pakistan as step one, and are willing to bifurcate India to do it. There are two problems - first the area is in dispute, but more importantly India will fight to not have it's northern provinces cut off by China. China wants a land route into Eurasia and they don't care how they get it. They are of a mind that they don't need to compromise or negotiate since, after all, they are Chinese, not Indian.

The issue for the USA is that China will develop more robust military capability on the South China Sea routes and on the land routes, too, plus gain a port in Pakistan into the Arabian Sea. The other problem is India always loses against China. So guess who might have to pick up the slack? It's not in the US's economic interest to have China economically dominate Eurasia. It's also not in US interests to have a nuclear armed Pakistan threaten India on China's behalf.

Exciting times ahead.

Note: This is created from several sources.

 

[calamity]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Sure, they figure that they may as well do it now while the US is rudderless.

 

[PeteEU]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India and China have been butting heads on and off for decades.

 

[chuckiechan]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India and China have been butting heads on and off for decades.

And so has Pakistan and India. India has no choice but to lose territory to China or fight, and it should be wary about Pakistan being a Chinese proxy like North Korea is to the USA.

 

[jimbo]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Sure, they figure that they may as well do it now while the US is rudderless.

If that were true they would have done it during the past 8 years.

 

[Beaudreaux]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Sure, they figure that they may as well do it now while the US is rudderless.

That may influence them, you may be correct. Which is why China began this current state of aggressiveness internationally, claiming other country's territory militarily as their own, under the Obama Administration. But I'm not so sure how Trump would react. He's an unproven, untested factor, although if his rhetoric is any predictor, he would seem to be prepared to hold China to account - militarily if needed. If Russia were to stand with China, since they have created their new alliance regarding this very expansionism in Eurasia, then Trump may in fact maintain the state of the US being rudderless in International Relations as it has been for almost a decade.

This particular situation has long term worldwide, and potentially apocalyptic, potential, as chuckiechan very intelligently described in the OP. Add to this, North Korea's nuclear threat, Russia et al (as I already said), India/Pakistan nuclear standoff as chuckiechan pointed out. And then there's the other powers of the extended region that are unpredictable as to where they would stand or how they would react, like the Philippines, Myanmar, and others.

The potential here is staggering, and the unknowns regarding current world leadership (Trump at the top of that list) make it even more so.

 

[chuckiechan]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Sure, they figure that they may as well do it now while the US is rudderless.

**** in someone else's thread, will you?

 

[Beaudreaux]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India's North-South Transit Corridor:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadesh...ding-a-new-silk-road-of-its-own/#73fe2ac7a90e



So we can label this pending dust up as "When China's Soft Power Fails".

China and India border dispute - CNN



So what we have is India's route to Eurasia, and China wanting one of their own into Pakistan as step one, and are willing to bifurcate India to do it. There are two problems - first the area is in dispute, but more importantly India will fight to not have it's northern provinces cut off by China. China wants a land route into Eurasia and they don't care how they get it. They are of a mind that they don't need to compromise or negotiate since, after all, they are Chinese, not Indian.

The issue for the USA is that China will develop more robust military capability on the South China Sea routes and on the land routes, too, plus gain a port in Pakistan into the Arabian Sea. The other problem is India always loses against China. So guess who might have to pick up the slack? It's not in the US's economic interest to have China economically dominate Eurasia. It's also not in US interests to have a nuclear armed Pakistan threaten India on China's behalf.

Exciting times ahead.

Note: This is created from several sources.

Great thread and well thought out. I've been keeping an eye on this rising conflict for a few months now.

This conflict is an extreme threat putting world peace in real danger, and it is pushing the world (IMHO) the closest we have been to an actual nuclear conflict since the Cuban Missile Crisis, and although there has been minor coverage, it's getting pretty much ignored here in the US by our press and the body politic especially given its potential impact to the US and how it appears to be slowly but inevitably moving toward open war.

India isn't standing down, and will not. China isn't standing down, and will not, based on their aggressiveness and military occupation of the South China Sea. There have already been some tense military standoffs over this. From a month ago:

Indian army chief tours border state with China amid tensions | Reuters

June 29, 2017
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's army chief visited the mountainous state of Sikkim bordering China on Thursday, where tensions have flared after Beijing accused New Delhi of sending troops into its territory and obstructing the construction of a road.

Small incursions and troop stand-offs are common along other parts of China and India's contested 3,500 km (2175 miles) frontier, but a flare-up near strategically positioned Sikkim is rare.

General Bipin Rawat arrived in Gangtok, the capital of the tiny Himalayan state, before heading off to visit troop formations. A spokesman for the Indian army said the one-day trip was "routine" and planned before the recent tensions.

Reports of the incursion and a confrontation between troops emerged as Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, the latest in a line of stand-offs reported during diplomatic initiatives.

And, India is damned serious about this,, spending over a Billion Dollars, with their literally moving mountains to prepare for war:

India moves mountains to build military road to China border | Business Standard

April 6, 2017

On the near-vertical slopes of the eastern Himalayas, workers are blasting and cutting treacherous rock faces to build a top-priority military asset: a 34-mile road to the country’s disputed border with China.

Far away in the capital New Delhi-a six-day journey by foot, road, rail and air-Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office is monitoring their progress as he doubles down on a billion-dollar infrastructure plan in this contested region to strengthen India’s hand against its powerful neighbor.

 

[chuckiechan]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

I suspect the Russians aren't all that thrilled either. Generally they are not all that fond of Chinese, either, and don't what a competitive power having a road into their "sphere". They may be our allies someday. They were for awhile in WW2.

EDIT, I wonder if the Indians built that road with the intention of dynamiting it with the Chinese on it?

 

[Lyndon'sJohnson]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

I suspect the Russians aren't all that thrilled either. Generally they are not all that fond of Chinese, either, and don't what a competitive power having a road into their "sphere". They may be our allies someday. They were for awhile in WW2.

EDIT, I wonder if the Indians built that road with the intention of dynamiting it with the Chinese on it?

Of course, I see you're borrowing from Kissinger's "America has no permanent friends or enemies, just interests", mantra. It's actually one of the reasons why I've actually liked Trump for something (I know, crazy right?): his willingness to be flexible in U.S. relations to Russia.

Also I appreciate the OP on this chuckiechan, this is honestly something I didn't have on my radar (which is why I'll refrain from putting my two-cents in just yet) and you summarized it nicely, I definitely have to start reading up on this.

 

[DA60]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

With respect...none of this is any real concern or is even America's business.

China has NEVER attacked a country outside of it's historical borders...NEVER. They are an inward looking people...they do not seek world conquest. Why would a people who do not like foreign 'blood' to mix with their own want to rule the world? They would not and do not.
What they want is to be extremely powerful within their borders and to use the world ECONOMICALLY to strengthen themselves.

China is smart enough to know - what American neocons are clueless about - that starting war gets you NOTHING but lots of trouble, huge costs and decades of problems. So they wage war with money.

And it's working.

While America runs all over the world - desperately trying to control it with her military...all the while seeing their economy stagnate. China is growing their economy hand over fist through economic - not military - expansionism.

No way China invades any part of India except with economic expansion.


America has to stop this ridiculous and expensive policing-the-world crap/paranoia and concentrate on getting their fiscal and economic house in order.

 

[joG]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India's North-South Transit Corridor:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadesh...ding-a-new-silk-road-of-its-own/#73fe2ac7a90e



So we can label this pending dust up as "When China's Soft Power Fails".

China and India border dispute - CNN



So what we have is India's route to Eurasia, and China wanting one of their own into Pakistan as step one, and are willing to bifurcate India to do it. There are two problems - first the area is in dispute, but more importantly India will fight to not have it's northern provinces cut off by China. China wants a land route into Eurasia and they don't care how they get it. They are of a mind that they don't need to compromise or negotiate since, after all, they are Chinese, not Indian.

The issue for the USA is that China will develop more robust military capability on the South China Sea routes and on the land routes, too, plus gain a port in Pakistan into the Arabian Sea. The other problem is India always loses against China. So guess who might have to pick up the slack? It's not in the US's economic interest to have China economically dominate Eurasia. It's also not in US interests to have a nuclear armed Pakistan threaten India on China's behalf.

Exciting times ahead.

Note: This is created from several sources.

Let's wait and see. Depending on the path the skirmish takes, we can help Japan and other countries whose territorial waters China is contesting to seize the islands and sell India the weapons they need to deflect China's aggression. That would really kick off to a new round of The Great Game.

 

[joG]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India and China have been butting heads on and off for decades.

It would certainly be a cool region for the first nuclear war of the century.

 

[SheWolf]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India's North-South Transit Corridor:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadesh...ding-a-new-silk-road-of-its-own/#73fe2ac7a90e



So we can label this pending dust up as "When China's Soft Power Fails".

China and India border dispute - CNN



So what we have is India's route to Eurasia, and China wanting one of their own into Pakistan as step one, and are willing to bifurcate India to do it. There are two problems - first the area is in dispute, but more importantly India will fight to not have it's northern provinces cut off by China. China wants a land route into Eurasia and they don't care how they get it. They are of a mind that they don't need to compromise or negotiate since, after all, they are Chinese, not Indian.

The issue for the USA is that China will develop more robust military capability on the South China Sea routes and on the land routes, too, plus gain a port in Pakistan into the Arabian Sea. The other problem is India always loses against China. So guess who might have to pick up the slack? It's not in the US's economic interest to have China economically dominate Eurasia. It's also not in US interests to have a nuclear armed Pakistan threaten India on China's behalf.

Exciting times ahead.

Note: This is created from several sources.

India could also threaten Pakistan with their nukes.

 

[SheWolf]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India and China have been butting heads on and off for decades.

I am kind of cheering for China

 

[Tigerace117]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

With respect...none of this is any real concern or is even America's business.

China has NEVER attacked a country outside of it's historical borders...NEVER. They are an inward looking people...they do not seek world conquest. Why would a people who do not like foreign 'blood' to mix with their own want to rule the world? They would not and do not.
What they want is to be extremely powerful within their borders and to use the world ECONOMICALLY to strengthen themselves.

China is smart enough to know - what American neocons are clueless about - that starting war gets you NOTHING but lots of trouble, huge costs and decades of problems. So they wage war with money.

And it's working.

While America runs all over the world - desperately trying to control it with her military...all the while seeing their economy stagnate. China is growing their economy hand over fist through economic - not military - expansionism.

No way China invades any part of India except with economic expansion.


America has to stop this ridiculous and expensive policing-the-world crap/paranoia and concentrate on getting their fiscal and economic house in order.

India was never part of China, yet China fought a series of border clashes with India in the 1960s. Russia was never a part of China, yet the Chinese and Russians almost went to war over a particular island in 1969 I believe it was. Tibet was long a completely seperate state from China, but that didn't stop the Chinese from going in and continuing to occupy Tibet to this day.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Sounds Right

It’s hard to get away from the timing issue, though. While it’s always possible to lay out an overall guiding logic for China’s behaviour, that doesn’t answer the question: Why now? In that respect, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US has to be seen as providing immediate context while the general deterioration in Sino-Indian relations is the wider one.

China is looking to determine how various states’ dealings with the new US administration may condition their behaviour on strategic issues – is this an emboldening or an inhibiting backdrop for Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea and others? That’s increasingly the prism through which Beijing looks at relations with India too – inaccurately, I think, in this instance, but China’s proclivity is still to believe that, in the absence of US backing, its neighbours would take a more accommodating stance. With the present turmoil in Washington, China is putting this to the test by means of both inducements and pressure. In that sense, the lessons that Beijing will take from Doklam extend well beyond the border issues.

https://thewire.in/164581/andrew-small-china-india-doklam-standoff/

Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. His research focuses on U.S.-China relations, EU-China relations, Chinese policy in South and South-West Asia, and China's role in "problem" and fragile states. He was based in GMF’s Brussels office for five years, where he established the Asia program and the Stockholm China Forum, GMF's biannual China policy conference. He previously worked as the director of the Foreign Policy Centre's Beijing office; as a visiting fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and was an ESU scholar in the office of Senator Edward M. Kennedy. He has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and both the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Development Committee of the European Parliament, and his articles and papers have been published in Foreign Affairs, the New York Times, Foreign Policy, and the Washington Quarterly, as well as many other journals, magazines and newspapers. The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics is his first book. Andrew Small was educated at Balliol College, University of Oxford
Biography ? Andrew Small

China does not want war, it's military is still a decade away from that being a viable option, but it does want to encourage good behavior from India, through both carrots and sticks.

 

[polgara]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

That may influence them, you may be correct. Which is why China began this current state of aggressiveness internationally, claiming other country's territory militarily as their own, under the Obama Administration. But I'm not so sure how Trump would react. He's an unproven, untested factor, although if his rhetoric is any predictor, he would seem to be prepared to hold China to account - militarily if needed. If Russia were to stand with China, since they have created their new alliance regarding this very expansionism in Eurasia, then Trump may in fact maintain the state of the US being rudderless in International Relations as it has been for almost a decade.

This particular situation has long term worldwide, and potentially apocalyptic, potential, as chuckiechan very intelligently described in the OP. Add to this, North Korea's nuclear threat, Russia et al (as I already said), India/Pakistan nuclear standoff as chuckiechan pointed out. And then there's the other powers of the extended region that are unpredictable as to where they would stand or how they would react, like the Philippines, Myanmar, and others.

The potential here is staggering, and the unknowns regarding current world leadership (Trump at the top of that list) make it even more so.

Greetings, Beaudreaux. :2wave:

Well said, Sir! :thumbs: With allegiances changing all the time for one reason or another, it will be interesting to watch how it all turns out - AND who "wins" at being the world leader, a position we have held since the end of WW2.

There is a reason why China decided some years ago to start buying up all the tons of gold they could get their hands on, so can we speculate that they assume that "he who owns the gold makes the rules," or stated another way, "who has the money has the power?" They are getting more and more "hard-nosed" about the South China Sea, so Why the current emphasis by the MSM on possible Russia interference, via hacking, in our last election? That doesn't make sense, IMO, unless it's being used as a diversion from other more important problems, even though at this point nothing has been proven? :doh :thumbdown

 

[chuckiechan]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India could also threaten Pakistan with their nukes.

And Pakistan may become the Middle East's North Korea with the cooperation of China.

 

[ThirdTerm]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Two combative articles published in China’s state-run Global Times newspaper have raised fears of military clashes in the disputed Doklam region that lies at the junction between China, Bhutan and India.

Since June 16, when Indian forces sought to prevent China from building a road in a part of the plateau claimed by Bhutan, the two powers have been locked in a standoff in the region. Now, the Times of India reports, a top Chinese academic has written in the state organ that China is planning a "small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks.”

Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in the Global Times : “China will not allow the military standoff between China and India in Doklam to last for too long, and there may be a small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks."

China Considering Military Action Against India: Report

These incendiary articles were published in China’s Global Times newspaper, which is a Chinese tabloid similar to Britain's Sun. Since the Global Times is a nationalistic tabloid catering to the right-wing audience in China as the Sun does in Britain, the credibility of the two combative articles can be questioned. The real problem is the presence of lunatic nationalists in China who actually read such articles.

The Global Times (simplified Chinese: 环球时报; traditional Chinese: 寰球時報; pinyin: Huánqiú Shíbào) is a daily Chinese newspaper under the auspices of the People's Daily newspaper, focusing on international issues from a communist Chinese perspective.[1][2] The Global Times differentiates itself from other Chinese newspapers in part through its more populist approach to journalism, coupled with a tendency to court controversy.[3]

 

[DA60]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

India was never part of China, yet China fought a series of border clashes with India in the 1960s. Russia was never a part of China, yet the Chinese and Russians almost went to war over a particular island in 1969 I believe it was. Tibet was long a completely seperate state from China, but that didn't stop the Chinese from going in and continuing to occupy Tibet to this day.

I said historic...not recent.

If you look at your history, China is an INCREDIBLY old country. It used to be much larger than it presently is.

Here is a map of China in the 18'th Century during the Qing dynasty (not that this was the largest China was, I believe):

All three regions you speak of lie within the one-time historical borders of China.

PLUS - they did not declare war on India or the Soviet Union...because (even if they could defeat them) they had no interest in occupying those countries.....just the portions that used to be part of their country long ago.


China is no threat whatsoever to the sovereignty of the United States. None.

Of course Neocons are desperate to make people believe otherwise.

 

[Tigerace117]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

I said historic...not recent.

If you look at your history, China is an INCREDIBLY old country. It used to be much larger than it presently is.

Here is a map of China in the 18'th Century during the Qing dynasty (not that this was the largest China was, I believe):

All three regions you speak of lie within the one-time historical borders of China.

PLUS - they did not declare war on India or the Soviet Union...because (even if they could defeat them) they had no interest in occupying those countries.....just the portions that used to be part of their country long ago.


China is no threat whatsoever to the sovereignty of the United States. None.

Of course Neocons are desperate to make people believe otherwise.

Ooh, look at that. India--- not in China. Russia-- not in China. Korea--- while a Chinese puppet state, not in China. Vietnam--- not in China.

No, they just randomly started shooting at Indian and Soviet troops in a naked land grab. That's supposed to make me feel better?

 

[DA60]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

Ooh, look at that. India--- not in China. Russia-- not in China. Korea--- while a Chinese puppet state, not in China. Vietnam--- not in China.

No, they just randomly started shooting at Indian and Soviet troops in a naked land grab. That's supposed to make me feel better?

:roll:

Your response is proof positive of how a little knowledge can be dangerous.

If you would bother to do your homework...you would find that the actual regions that were disputed during the three periods you mentioned were all inside what was once the borders of historical China.

Good day.

 

[PoS]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

:roll:

Your response is proof positive of how a little knowledge can be dangerous.

If you would bother to do your homework...you would find that the actual regions that were disputed during the three periods you mentioned were all inside what was once the borders of historical China.

Good day.

Isnt it funny that the ones who most advocate for war are also ones who never served? I think the term is called chickenhawk.

 

[Tigerace117]

Re: China is Ready for War With India Over Trade Routes Through Someone Else's Proper

:roll:

Your response is proof positive of how a little knowledge can be dangerous.

If you would bother to do your homework...you would find that the actual regions that were disputed during the three periods you mentioned were all inside what was once the borders of historical China.

Good day.

And yet, the fact remains that these regions are disputed. They are not Chinese, and last time I checked China doesn't have the right to start shooting at other countries' troops because they have this fantasy about annexing all of "historical China".

Historically speaking, that has literally never needed well.