This Essay supports previous studies in finding that voter ID laws
impose a real burden on voter turnout. Based on my finding that states with
voter ID laws experienced a 1.6 to 2.2 percentage point decline in 2006 voter
turnout, 3 to 4.5 million voters were disenfranchised by the laws. As Justice
Souter reasoned in his Crawford dissent,121 where a court finds evidence of a
real burden on voters, a state must advance stronger interests than those
relied on by Indiana in Crawford to defend its contested voting regulation.122
Otherwise, voter ID laws fail the Court’s balancing test and must be found
unconstitutional. In future as-applied challenges to voter ID laws, petitioners
should use studies such as this one to quantify the nontrivial burden of
disenfranchisement.
My results do suggest a possible policy fix: states that adopted voter ID
laws most recently did not experience a decline in turnout. I posit that news
coverage and state-sponsored public outreach reminded voters to go to the
polls on Election Day with proper ID. However, when these efforts fade, the
disenfranchising effects of voter ID laws remain. States may be able to
counter the effects of ID laws with additional outreach.
http://jrnetsolserver.shorensteince...tent/uploads/2011/09/Voter-ID-and-Turnout.pdf