And the conservative backlash from Kavanaugh is ...

[PLizzy]

Nothing.

In fact, the Democrats have a massive lead among likely voters now 13+ in both SSRS/CNN and Ispos.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That's also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011.

Reuters Polling

We'll see what other polling says on both the generic ballot and local district polls, but it appears the only thing the Kavanaugh hearings did was help people who had reservations about voting for Democrats actually commit to it.

 

[The Mark]

Voter turnout is possibly more important than poll numbers.

Personally, political ****ery makes me want to go vote to get something better.
Doesn't always work, but if it's not attempted you don't even have a chance.

 

[Slavister]

the Democrats have a massive lead among likely voters now 13+ in both SSRS/CNN and Ispos.

I don't think polling matters much for general population. Does not matter if San Francisco democrats or Iowa republicans are now more likely to vote for their parties. Polls that might give you some little evidence of anything important are the polls specific to areas that actually have Congress seats that can flip.

Assuming of course Russians won't hack into the systems to count our votes in few key states and precincts... (They've had 2 more years to prepare and US administration that either would not care to protect, or who knows, even be willing to assist if needed)

 

[Winston]

Nothing.

In fact, the Democrats have a massive lead among likely voters now 13+ in both SSRS/CNN and Ispos.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html


Reuters Polling

We'll see what other polling says on both the generic ballot and local district polls, but it appears the only thing the Kavanaugh hearings did was help people who had reservations about voting for Democrats actually commit to it.

I think both sides view the Kavanaugh hearing and confirmation as the utmost treachery of the opposing party. Meaning, the people who were already mad at the other side, surprise are even more mad now. So, they might vote a little harder. Pull the lever down with a bang! But, the deciding people you gotta convince to turn out to support you are the independents and young people.

Polling shows Republicans have lost ground with independents, largely due to Trump being a colossal embarrassment. As for young people, who knows what the slippery little bastards are going to do come November. If it was me and I was their age, I would of drank and not given a **** what was going on in DC. But, young people do seem to be very active on social media too.

This is all just from my head and from my experience and from my own observations.

Historically, the Democrats are likely to retake the House. The Senate is within their reach but, will be a miracle if they take both, imo. Check out Perotista's predictions in his blog on here, he has some neatly organized information about the midterms.

 

[PLizzy]

I think both sides view the Kavanaugh hearing and confirmation as the utmost treachery of the opposing party. Meaning, the people who were already mad at the other side, surprise are even more mad now. So, they might vote a little harder. Pull the lever down with a bang! But, the deciding people you gotta convince to turn out to support you are the independents and young people.

Polling shows Republicans have lost ground with independents, largely due to Trump being a colossal embarrassment. As for young people, who knows what the slippery little bastards are going to do come November. If it was me and I was their age, I would of drank and not given a **** what was going on in DC. But, young people do seem to be very active on social media too.

This is all just from my head and from my experience and from my own observations.

Historically, the Democrats are likely to retake the House. The Senate is within their reach but, will be a miracle if they take both, imo. Check out Perotista's predictions in his blog on here, he has some neatly organized information about the midterms.

The Senate is gone at this point.

The red state seats are going to be dealing with enough conservative turnout that I think Tennessee and Texas are saying red, and North Dakota and Missouri are probably gone. The only question is whether we can flip Arizona and Nevada to make it a wash.

On the flip side, the governor races look like they might be the most consequential blood bath of all. They GOP could lose as many as nine governorships this election, which will have far more important effects on law and gerrymandering.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Nothing.

In fact, the Democrats have a massive lead among likely voters now 13+ in both SSRS/CNN and Ispos.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html


Reuters Polling

We'll see what other polling says on both the generic ballot and local district polls, but it appears the only thing the Kavanaugh hearings did was help people who had reservations about voting for Democrats actually commit to it.

I have very little faith in the polling business right now, these cats dont look like they know what they are doing now that The Rebellion is here.

Lets just wait for the votes MKay?

Wont be long.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Nothing.

In fact, the Democrats have a massive lead among likely voters now 13+ in both SSRS/CNN and Ispos.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html


Reuters Polling

We'll see what other polling says on both the generic ballot and local district polls, but it appears the only thing the Kavanaugh hearings did was help people who had reservations about voting for Democrats actually commit to it.

The only results that matter are in those States with "swing" Districts that normally have no habit of voting Republican or Democrat and where seats might actually change.

Incumbents typically maintain an advantage, and I also doubt Republican or Democrat "strongholds" are going to change.

I don't normally vote in mid-terms, but I am motivated to do so this time thanks to both the Kavanaugh melee, and my concerns over letting the rabid elements of the Left, who are steering the Democratic Party, take power.

I don't think I am alone in this concern. :shrug:

 

[GreatNews2night]

The only results that matter are in those States with "swing" Districts that normally have no habit of voting Republican or Democrat and where seats might actually change.

Incumbents typically maintain an advantage, and I also doubt Republican or Democrat "strongholds" are going to change.

The people who have been making all the fuss, both from the right and from the left, wouldn't ever change their votes anyway. So, Republicans will vote for Republicans and Democrats will vote for Democrats. What else is new? What matters is the enthusiasm gap.

Regardless of Kavanaugh, if the center-left people and the leftists are not willing to come out in strong numbers to deliver some checks and balances to Trump, then I'll say that we Americans deserve Trump.

 

[PLizzy]

The only results that matter are in those States which normally have no habit of voting Republican or Democrat and where seats might actually change.

I doubt Republican or Democrat "strongholds" are going to change.

Most of the R +7 seats are probably staying in their control, but anything below that threshold is up for grabs, which is about 55 seats.

Right now, Cook rates a good 15 Republican seats as almost certain to fall into DNC control with about another 30 Republican seats as toss-up, which means the Dems only need to have a striking rate of only 40% to win the House back, and I don't see how that doesn't happen with all the metrics present.

It only takes an advantage of six or seven percent on the generic ballot to result in a nationwide break on toss-ups, similar to the landslides of 1994, 2006, and 2010.

 

[vesper]

They moved a slew of House Republican seats that were listed as tossups to leans Republican today at RealClearPolitics.

 

[iguanaman]

The only results that matter are in those States with "swing" Districts that normally have no habit of voting Republican or Democrat and where seats might actually change.

Incumbents typically maintain an advantage, and I also doubt Republican or Democrat "strongholds" are going to change.

I don't normally vote in mid-terms, but I am motivated to do so this time thanks to both the Kavanaugh melee, and my concerns over letting the rabid elements of the Left, who are steering the Democratic Party, take power.

I don't think I am alone in this concern. :shrug:

LOL Republicans always turn out but they are outnumbered by more every election. Still the districts they hold are often so gerrymandered that Dems need a wave to break through. The Kavanaugh coronation helped that wave to propagate , suburban women are especially motivated by the treatment of Dr. Ford. It looks like a bloodbath for the GOP in the House for sure. The Senate will have to wait until 2020 then the Dems will have the trifecta. After that we will be looking at enlarging the Supreme Court to 11 justices.. It makes sense to have more don't you think? All it takes is Congress and a President who will sign the bill.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/08/donald-trump-women-gop-221080