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Alan Lichtman breaks down his Presidential Election prediction

BrotherFease

BrotherFease

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Opinion | Allan Lichtman Predicted Trump'''s Win in 2016. Now He'''s Ready to Call 2020. - The New York Times

It's a close one. For those who cannot view the video, he has Biden winning the electoral college. It was a close call. Lichtman does a true or false algorithm involving the incumbent presidential nominee. If there's at least 6 out of the 13 false statements, the challenger party presidential nominee wins. The six false statements were lost seats in the congress, short-term and long-term economy looking grim, social unrest, scandal and non-charismatic leader.

So far he's been accurate 8 out of the 9 times. His first prediction was in 1984. The only election he got wrong was 2000.
 
He was right in 2000, too, if you know what I mean.
 
armycowboy said:
I still think that it's way to early for predictions.
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Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
Click to expand...
Well, there is this - which I might start a thread on:

(Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November
 
There will need to be multiple October surprises for Trump to have a chance.

First will have to be a vaccine. Whether the vaccine works or not is irrelevant. The susceptible ones have already shown that they will believe anything that Trump says.

The second will probably have to be something about Biden and pedophilia. Trump will have to promise to have it on video. Again, the reality of it does not matter.

I doubt that those two together will be enough to tip the scales, which tells me that Americans would prefer a pedophile to Trump.
 
Chomsky said:
Well, there is this - which I might start a thread on:

(Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November
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Interesting read.

Holy moly.

I can’t even understand it... I know for a fact, without hesitation that Canada would do everything it could to help people to vote if an election had to occur now, it should make everyone sick that anyone is trying to make it harder or not trying to put the necessary infrastructure in place to make it work, this could have been started weeks or months ago.

I know for a fact Obama and I dare say Bush would have done it.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Interesting read.

Holy moly.

I can’t even understand it... I know for a fact, without hesitation that Canada would do everything it could to help people to vote if an election had to occur now, it should make everyone sick that anyone is trying to make it harder or not trying to put the necessary infrastructure in place to make it work, this could have been started weeks or months ago.

I know for a fact Obama and I dare say Bush would have done it.
Click to expand...
This is why Trump is trying to defund the post office. He placed one of his political hacks in the director's seat, and the guy is cutting everything in sight. A lot of peeps are now complaining of really long two week mail delivery times.

Trump has filled the government with non-appointed "acting" political hack department heads. He can get away with this due to the two-party system, where's Trump's protected from removal by the GOP controlled Senate. Your parliamentarian form of government would not easily protect an errant Prime Minister. Unless there was a large super-majority control party, of course.

Edit: And I did start a thread on this, here:

DP
 
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Jetboogieman said:
Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
Click to expand...

Essentially, Trump is dependent on the circumstances around him changing because he's unable to change those circumstances himself. It's a testament to his weakness.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
Click to expand...

A vaccine would not turn the tide in his favor, everyone sees how bad he has been at managing the crisis. Besides, even when a vaccine is available the regular citizen will not be getting one right away, there is a priority list already, it will months after it is available for most regular Americans to even think about getting one.
 
BrotherFease said:
Opinion | Allan Lichtman Predicted Trump'''s Win in 2016. Now He'''s Ready to Call 2020. - The New York Times

It's a close one. For those who cannot view the video, he has Biden winning the electoral college. It was a close call. Lichtman does a true or false algorithm involving the incumbent presidential nominee. If there's at least 6 out of the 13 false statements, the challenger party presidential nominee wins. The six false statements were lost seats in the congress, short-term and long-term economy looking grim, social unrest, scandal and non-charismatic leader.

So far he's been accurate 8 out of the 9 times. His first prediction was in 1984. The only election he got wrong was 2000.
Click to expand...

I'll believe it after Biden wins in November. Until then, Biden and his supporters should not take their foot off the gas.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
Click to expand...

What kind of voter would give Trump credit for a vaccine?
 
Jetboogieman said:
Actually... in this particular case it would be very difficult for Trump to win the EC again this time.

There is many combinations of States that Biden could flip from 2016 whilst Trump is likely to gain 0 new electoral votes in all likelihood.

Unless.

I think there is a yet unforeseen component that would throw the dynamic of the election completely on its head in a matter of moments.

A vaccine.

That is unlikely to happen before the election and there is some doubt despite some initial promising news, it could happen at all, but, make no mistake, it would change everything.
Click to expand...

If you look at Real Clear Politics composite poll averages, Trump is beginning to rebound a bit.
 
Diesel said:
What kind of voter would give Trump credit for a vaccine?
Click to expand...

The same kind of voter who hated the economy on November 8th, 2016, and thought it was absolutely fantastic on November 9th.

Yes, that happened.
 
Yakshi said:
First will have to be a vaccine. Whether the vaccine works or not is irrelevant. The susceptible ones have already shown that they will believe anything that Trump says.
Click to expand...

Trump's chances are hampered by two factors: Covid19 and the economy. If we have a vaccine and the economy makes a rebound in late October, he's probably going to win re-election. That's the key here. As of today, I wouldn't bet on Trump winning Texas or Georgia.
 
lurchadams said:
Yep, trump's campaign against mail-in voting would be no big deal if only one of his boosters wasn't the postmaster general. This could really screw things up.
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FYI - I came across an article yesterday, claiming Trump is strategizing the use of Executive Orders to mold the Post Office to his liking for the election. If I find the article, I'll start a thread on it.
 
Chomsky said:
FYI - I came across an article yesterday, claiming Trump is strategizing the use of Executive Orders to mold the Post Office to his liking for the election. If I find the article, I'll start a thread on it.
Click to expand...

Anything to do with Trump and the PO is a scary thought. I wouldn't put anything past him at this point.
 
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