A Good Example of Why I distrust Political Polling.

[Captain Adverse]

Another video find on YouTube I'd like to share with the Members.

Recently CNN reported polling from Pew and Monmouth which seemed to show Trump being trashed as a candidate by voters.

However, this analysis of those polls shows many of the issues I've raised in one form or another about polling in general. As well as political polling in particular.



Again, I am not going to spoil the story by posting a summary, because I don't want to be accused of/attacked for alleged personal views on the subject.

I will say again though, the presenter's analysis using the data points, the sources, and the skew in how they are presented might surprise some who are dependent on such polling to push the "we are winning" meme.

 

[Michael Cole]

I appreciate your effort, but the reason I trust polls is because they wouldn't be in business if they weren't accurate. Simple market dynamics. Furthermore, when they all indicate the same thing, that supports their credibility.

 

[Schism]

Democrats and their liberal media are not using polls to inform the public of opinion trends, but rather to form and influence opinion.

It's part of the playbook from Manufacturing Consent; it's propaganda.

Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media is a 1988 book by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky, in which the authors propose that the mass communication media of the U.S. "are effective and powerful ideological institutions that carry out a system-supportive propaganda function, by reliance on market forces, internalized assumptions, and self-censorship, and without overt coercion", by means of the propaganda model of communication.[1] The title derives from the phrase "the manufacture of consent", employed in the book Public Opinion (1922) by Walter Lippmann (1889–1974).[2] The consent referred to is consent of the governed.

https://www.amazon.com/Manufacturing-Consent-Political-Economy-Media/dp/0375714499

It's beyond evil: it's diabolical, and it's the Democratic Party's favorite tactic.

 

[Slavister]

Wow, what a dumb video.

The guy is simply complaining that voters prefer Biden over Trump on all those issues because he can spin some cherry-picked shots with right-wing talking points. Basically he and the OP poster appear to be confused why most people don't buy right wing propaganda.

I'll help you with one of those questions - the guy in the video is all confused about how Biden can score higher than Trump on Coronavirus since Biden is not really doing anything about it. Here is an answer - a piece of crap on a side walk would do better than Trump because doing NOTHING is better than what Trump is doing on this.

Trump has been actively INTERFERING with professionals on this in very many ways, from installing idiots to handle this to making them shake in their boots if they don't agree with his terrible ideas, to muzzling healthcare professionals, to pushing states to reopen to soon, etc, etc.

Oh and yes, Biden wearing mask to set an example is already 100% times better than Trump downplaying masks, never setting such example and even mocking Biden for wearing one.


You are welcome.

 

[dave8383]

Another video find on YouTube I'd like to share with the Members.

Recently CNN reported polling from Pew and Monmouth which seemed to show Trump being trashed as a candidate by voters.

However, this analysis of those polls shows many of the issues I've raised in one form or another about polling in general. As well as political polling in particular.



Again, I am not going to spoil the story by posting a summary, because I don't want to be accused of/attacked for alleged personal views on the subject.

I will say again though, the presenter's analysis using the data points, the sources, and the skew in how they are presented might surprise some who are dependent on such polling to push the "we are winning" meme.

Are you under the impression this is about polls? It's nothing but hilarious anti-Biden propaganda.

 

[Schism]

Are you under the impression this is about polls? It's nothing but hilarious anti-Biden propaganda.

The poll reports are anti-Trump propaganda. But, you already knew that.

The media believes they're helping their candidate to win, just like they did for Hillary.

It's Kool-Aid. They mix it up special just for you. It's obvious you've purple-drank the whole pitcher.

 

[dave8383]

The poll reports are anti-Trump propaganda. But, you already knew that.

The media believes they're helping their candidate to win, just like they did for Hillary.

It's Kool-Aid. They mix it up special just for you. It's obvious you've purple-drank the whole pitcher.

Poor baby, are the polls getting you down?

 

[Schism]

Poor baby, are the polls getting you down?

No rebuttal; ad hominem. Point conceded.

Advantage: Schism

 

[Conaeolos]

I appreciate your effort, but the reason I trust polls is because they wouldn't be in business if they weren't accurate.

:lol: If only that were true.

 

[2distracted]

I appreciate your effort, but the reason I trust polls is because they wouldn't be in business if they weren't accurate. Simple market dynamics. Furthermore, when they all indicate the same thing, that supports their credibility.

They were perfectly accurate in 2016 weren't they?

 

[dave8383]

Democrats and their liberal media are not using polls to inform the public of opinion trends, but rather to form and influence opinion.

It's part of the playbook from Manufacturing Consent; it's propaganda.



It's beyond evil: it's diabolical, and it's the Democratic Party's favorite tactic.

What would Chomsky say about this one?

CBNNews

The Christian Perspective



Historically Accurate Election Model Predicts 2020 Result of Trump vs. Biden | CBN News


President Trump is all but certain to be re-elected, according to a political science professor who has developed an accurate presidential election prediction model.
Stony Brook University Prof. Helmut Norpoth revealed the result to the website Mediaite.

Norpoth's model predicted Trump would win in 2016, even when the polls seemed to indicate the opposite.

The university reported back in 2016, "Based on his analysis of primary voting, Norpoth gave Trump an 87%-99% chance of beating Hillary Clinton nearly one year ago. He stuck by his model in press interviews despite an overwhelming consensus of pollsters and pundits promising a Clinton victory."

His model would have correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, and it says President Trump has a 91 percent chance of being reelected.
The model also indicates the president could win a bigger majority in the Electoral College this time than he did in 2016.

Historically Accurate Election Model Predicts 2020 Result of Trump vs. Biden | CBN News

 

[Schism]

What would Chomsky say about this one?

I can't speak for Chomsky, but what he describes in his books and speeches is mostly centered on the Democratic Party.

IMO Chomsky and Bernie, I believe, are two of the most trustworthy voices in politics. Both of them have described corruption, rigged primaries, tactics to remain in power, propaganda, media collusion, skewed polls, etc etc.

It's a sea of lies. I'm not sure if you're pretending not to see it or just lying about it. See what I did there?

 

[dave8383]

See what I did there?

You haven't done anything.

An OP was posted claiming to be about polls but it wasn't about polls. End of story.

 

[Schism]

You haven't done anything.

An OP was posted claiming to be about polls but it wasn't about polls. End of story.

Not only was the OP about skewed polls, the guy documented how and why they were skewed.

My posts are more about the reasoning behind why the media skews polls intentionally.

Your rebuttal is, "nuh-unh". You are dismissed.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

They were perfectly accurate in 2016 weren't they?

How were the polls not accurate in 2016? The polls predicted a 2% - 3% popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton. That is what happened.

 

[dave8383]

Another video find on YouTube I'd like to share with the Members.

Recently CNN reported polling from Pew and Monmouth which seemed to show Trump being trashed as a candidate by voters.

However, this analysis of those polls shows many of the issues I've raised in one form or another about polling in general. As well as political polling in particular.



Again, I am not going to spoil the story by posting a summary, because I don't want to be accused of/attacked for alleged personal views on the subject.

I will say again though, the presenter's analysis using the data points, the sources, and the skew in how they are presented might surprise some who are dependent on such polling to push the "we are winning" meme.

Gee, is this video, by the same guy, suppose to be about polls again, or is just it more anti-Biden propaganda?

 

[dave8383]

Not only was the OP about skewed polls, the guy documented how and why they were skewed.

My posts are more about the reasoning behind why the media skews polls intentionally.

Your rebuttal is, "nuh-unh". You are dismissed.

You mean the anti-Biden guy?

 

[dave8383]

It's the same guy again. This one just has to be about polls. Lets see:




Nope, sorry, it's more anti-Biden propaganda.

 

[lurchadams]

Another video find on YouTube I'd like to share with the Members.

Recently CNN reported polling from Pew and Monmouth which seemed to show Trump being trashed as a candidate by voters.

However, this analysis of those polls shows many of the issues I've raised in one form or another about polling in general. As well as political polling in particular.



Again, I am not going to spoil the story by posting a summary, because I don't want to be accused of/attacked for alleged personal views on the subject.

I will say again though, the presenter's analysis using the data points, the sources, and the skew in how they are presented might surprise some who are dependent on such polling to push the "we are winning" meme.

The main reason trump supporters distrust the polls is because they're contradicting their predetermined narrative about trump wiping the floor with Biden.

 

[dave8383]

The main reason trump supporters distrust the polls is because they're contradicting their predetermined narrative about trump wiping the floor with Biden.

Without a doubt. But I would suggest no one count their chickens.

 

[Schism]

How were the polls not accurate in 2016? The polls predicted a 2% - 3% popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton. That is what happened.

The polls had Hillary so far ahead she "pivoted to her transition" in Sept-Oct. She had the curtains and dishes picked out. The glass ceiling celebration hall, the coronation was set. Chuck Todd was giddy all night until about 11:30 pm, when he turned an ashen green-grey.

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
Last updated Tuesday, November 8 at 10:20 PM ET | nytimes.coml

The Worst Political Predictions of 2016 | politico.com

I suggest you rewatch this painful video.

 

[dave8383]

Really sweating it huh. :2razz:

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

The polls had Hillary so far ahead she "pivoted to her transition" in Sept-Oct. She had the curtains and dishes picked out. The glass ceiling celebration hall, the coronation was set. Chuck Todd was giddy all night until about 11:30 pm, when he turned an ashen green-grey.

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
Last updated Tuesday, November 8 at 10:20 PM ET | nytimes.coml

The Worst Political Predictions of 2016 | politico.com

I suggest you rewatch this painful video.

None of this answers my question. The polls predicted a 2% - 3% popular vote victory for Clinton. That is what happened.

 

[BlueTex]

It's pretty amazing how much political parties spend on polling when they are supposedly so worthless... :2razz:

 

[Schism]

None of this answers my question. The polls predicted a 2% - 3% popular vote victory for Clinton. That is what happened.

Career Pollsters predicted a nationwide landslide for Clinton. You're pretending like Hillary winning all of Kennebunkport's votes means something. It doesn't.