11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016

[DA60]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

 

[DA60]

The 11 are:

'#1 It is being projected that there will be more than 8,000 retail store closings in the United States in 2017, and that will far surpass the former peak of 6,163 store closings that we witnessed in 2008.

#2 The number of retailers that have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2017 has already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2016.

#3 So far in 2017, an astounding 49 million square feet of retail space has closed down in the United States. At this pace, approximately 147 million square feet will be shut down by the end of the year, and that would absolutely shatter the all-time record of 115 million square feet that was shut down in 2001.

#4 The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2017 will come in at just 0.5 percent. If that pace continues for the rest of the year, it will be the worst year for U.S. economic growth since the last recession.

#5 Restaurants are experiencing their toughest stretch since the last recession, and in March things continued to get even worse…

Foot traffic at chain restaurants in March dropped 3.4% from a year ago. Menu prices couldn’t be increased enough to make up for it, and same-store sales fell 1.1%. The least bad region was the Western US, where sales inched up 1.2% year-over-year and traffic fell only 1.7%, according to TDn2K’s Restaurant Industry Snapshot. The worst was the NY-NJ Region, where sales plunged 4.6% and foot traffic 6.3%.

This comes after a dismal February, when foot traffic had dropped 5% year-over-year, and same-store sales 3.7%.
#6 In March, U.S. factory output declined at the fastest pace in more than two years.

#7 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, not a single person is employed in nearly one out of every five U.S. families.

#8 U.S. government revenues just suffered their biggest drop since the last recession.

#9 Nearly all of the big automakers reported disappointing sales in March, and dealer inventories have now risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#10 Used vehicle prices are absolutely crashing, and subprime auto loan losses have shot up to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#11 At this point, most U.S. consumers are completely tapped out. According to CNN, almost six out of every ten Americans do not have enough money saved to even cover a $500 emergency expense.

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?



Once again, I have ZERO loyalty to any political party or movement.

 

[katzgar]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

maybe some facts will help with the hysteria... https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ion-stays-still-manufacturing-rises/99297348/

 

[celticwar17]

I'm not surprised... We haven't fixed anything about our economy... nothing. It will only get worse from here on out, unless something is done.

 

[fmw]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

Keep sayng it. At some point someone will believe it.

 

[rocket88]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

Fake news. America is great again.


Or something...

 

[RabidAlpaca]

maybe some facts will help with the hysteria... https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ion-stays-still-manufacturing-rises/99297348/

Your very short article says factory output rose a little and listed "oil price rebound" as the reason. How does this contradict anything he listed? Factory output is not what helps the American economy, good paying middle class jobs do, and as those factories continue to automate the number of real workers they need continues to plummet.

 

[holbritter]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

I had heard one of the head guys for JCPenny on the radio the other day, and he was saying that many more people are shopping online which has been more popular than ever, is causing major problems in retail brick and mortar stores. I believe that is a primary factor for the first few items you listed.

Don't know of a solution though. Online shopping is what I'm so used to doing, I haven't been to a mall in over a year!

 

[katzgar]

Your very short article says factory output rose a little and listed "oil price rebound" as the reason. How does this contradict anything he listed? Factory output is not what helps the American economy, good paying middle class jobs do, and as those factories continue to automate the number of real workers they need continues to plummet.

here is a quote "factory output is falling," falling and rose a little are different

 

[hanger4]

"Consumers Are Now Doing Most of Their Shopping Online"

A New Survey Shows a Drastic Increase In Online Shopping | Fortune.com

The motor carriage is replacing the horse.

 

[Surrealistik]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

Worse than 2016? No. In the sense of growth and trajectory (though I think the retail case is overstated given the transition to online buying, especially given very high consumer confidence; need to look into this more however)? Yes. I do think we're due for a pull back; catastrophe not so much.

 

[<alt>doxygen]

Keep sayng it. At some point someone will believe it.

Eventually the sky will fall, as Zero Hedge has been calling since he first appeared. Then he'll be called a prophet, again. Maybe.

 

[Surrealistik]

Eventually the sky will fall, as Zero Hedge has been calling since he first appeared. Then he'll be called a prophet, again. Maybe.

Yeah, that's the fundamental problem with Zero Hedge; it is set on slagging the US and its prospects no matter the situation, committing repeated lies of omission in favour of this narrative with the glass being always half-empty. Unsurprising as its writers tend to be goldbugs and/or heavily pro-Russian. At best it needs to be crossreferenced with other sources.

To be clear, I wouldn't say it never has a point or anything of value to say so much as that it dwells exclusively on the negative/contrarian and has an egregious bias in that direction which needs to be tempered with other inputs.

 

[<alt>doxygen]

Yeah, that's the fundamental problem with Zero Hedge; it is set on slagging the US and its prospects no matter the situation, committing repeated lies of omission in favour of this narrative with the glass being always half-empty. Unsurprising as its writers tend to be goldbugs and/or heavily pro-Russian. At best it needs to be crossreferenced with other sources.

To be clear, I wouldn't say it never has a point or anything of value to say so much as that it dwells exclusively on the negative/contrarian and has an egregious bias in that direction which needs to be tempered with other inputs.

Agreed. I DO read ZH once in a while, but with a large grain of salt.

 

[joG]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

It always depends, or very often does, on the meaning one gives good economic conditions. Most people would have said that the economy was great in January of 2000.....

 

[Carjosse]

I would say a lot of the first few points are because the economy changed, not because it got worse.

 

[RAMOSS]

Your very short article says factory output rose a little and listed "oil price rebound" as the reason. How does this contradict anything he listed? Factory output is not what helps the American economy, good paying middle class jobs do, and as those factories continue to automate the number of real workers they need continues to plummet.

An article in the economist quoted an oxford study that said 47% of all jobs will disappear in 25 years due to automations and A.I. That includes many jobs that are not blue collar jobs, such as lawyers and doctors , teachers and financial advisors.

47% of Jobs Will Disappear in the next 25 Years, Says Oxford University | Big Think

Not sure I think it will be that much, but , well the claim is that trend is irreversible, and will have nothing to do with what any party in power does.

 

[RAMOSS]

Your very short article says factory output rose a little and listed "oil price rebound" as the reason. How does this contradict anything he listed? Factory output is not what helps the American economy, good paying middle class jobs do, and as those factories continue to automate the number of real workers they need continues to plummet.

An article in the economist quoted an oxford study that said 47% of all jobs will disappear in 25 years due to automations and A.I. That includes many jobs that are not blue collar jobs, such as lawyers and doctors , teachers and financial advisors.

47% of Jobs Will Disappear in the next 25 Years, Says Oxford University | Big Think

Not sure I think it will be that much, but , well the claim is that trend is irreversible, and will have nothing to do with what any party in power does.

 

[Absentglare]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

Lol, don't worry, republicans, i'm sure President Trump will save you by ... sending you into the coal mines.

 

[bluesmoke]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

Credit Suisse projected 8,600 total retail closings for 2017. However, retail sales have been up 2015, 2016, and, so far 2017. The retail closings are due to the like of Amazon and Walmart online increasing share of the market.

As to that $4 trillion in bad debt held by financial corps that the IMF says equals 25% of their assets, we’ll just let Wall Street handle that. What could go wrong?

As for “…almost six out of every ten Americans do not have enough money saved to even cover a $500 emergency expense.”, I found from another source in a CreditDonkey article that: “Almost half of Americans would not be able to cover an unexpected expense of $500 or less. Almost a quarter would not be able to cover even $100. An estimated 22.9% of men and 22.7% of women say they don't have at least a Benjamin in their emergency fund.”

One thing investors want is certainty. They stop investing when uncertainty is on the rise. Then the hiring stops and the layoffs begin. The current rate of unemployment is below average. In fact, it’s in a range economist’ consider more likely to go up and much more difficult to raise.

 

[bluesmoke]

An article in the economist quoted an oxford study that said 47% of all jobs will disappear in 25 years due to automations and A.I. That includes many jobs that are not blue collar jobs, such as lawyers and doctors , teachers and financial advisors.

47% of Jobs Will Disappear in the next 25 Years, Says Oxford University | Big Think

Not sure I think it will be that much, but , well the claim is that trend is irreversible, and will have nothing to do with what any party in power does.

We have advancements in workplace technology waiting in the wings. Implementation is being held back because the average worker can't keep up with the learning curves of repeatedly new technology implantation.

 

[bluesmoke]

Worse than 2016? No. In the sense of growth and trajectory (though I think the retail case is overstated given the transition to online buying, especially given very high consumer confidence; need to look into this more however)? Yes. I do think we're due for a pull back; catastrophe not so much.

i
As of 2015, we had the highest after-tax corporate profit, as a percentage of GDP, since 1928, the S&P500 was at it's highest since nearly when it was started, GDP per capita was at it's high ever. The unemployment rate was brought down 3.7 points, the largest decrease during a Presidential term(s) in modern history. However, employee compensation had barely budged, as a % of GDP, since 1948. So, the question is, do you think Trump can better all that?

 

[jdog]

The bottom line is that the economy is almost completely dependent on debt. So long as people are able to service debt, the economy will keep its head above water. When debt passes the point of sustainability the economy will collapse because debt default begins the asset selling that lowers asset values and necessitates more asset selling. At present, the central banks have been able to prevent any downturns by directly purchasing assets, but their ability to do this is limited, and in a black swan event, they will be overwhelmed and unable to prevent asset deflation. The two really weak areas of debt at present are auto loans, and student loans.

 

[Surrealistik]

i
As of 2015, we had the highest after-tax corporate profit, as a percentage of GDP, since 1928, the S&P500 was at it's highest since nearly when it was started, GDP per capita was at it's high ever. The unemployment rate was brought down 3.7 points, the largest decrease during a Presidential term(s) in modern history. However, employee compensation had barely budged, as a % of GDP, since 1948. So, the question is, do you think Trump can better all that?

It's not really a question of Trump; I'm not sold on the importance of the president with regards to the economy outside of truly sweeping and systemic legislation/spending such as say in the case of FDR. That said, I do think we'll continue to climb and improve upon the current numbers, intermittent pullbacks, market scares and bubbles notwithstanding; the real question is whether we can upkeep the same rate of growth.

 

[YorkshirePete]

'There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year. It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times. As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. '

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016 | Zero Hedge


Thoughts?

This guy Marc Levinson was on WJ. 1973 was the peak, everything has been tried since, nothing works. We will be lucky if we get to 3 % again. The world caught up.
I remember my first trip to the USA in 1966 , big homes, 2 cars. Meals so big I couldn't eat them. Wages many times euros. I thought then, this can't go on.
After WWII we had 50 % of the worlds production. No longer.
Get used to it folks. Only salvation is brains and science degrees. The manufacturing big money is a myth.