10% to 20% unemployment within 5 years

[Along Came Jones]

AI finally has my attention.

Major company CEOs are talking about major worker cutbacks due to the emergence of AI tools. Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley predicts half of white-collar workers will be replaced. Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase CEO, could see her labor force reduced by 10%.

“This is a wake-up call,” [Micha Kaufman, CEO of Fiverr] wrote. “It does not matter if you are a programmer, designer, product manager, data scientist, lawyer, customer support rep, salesperson, or a finance person—AI is coming for you.”

There are executives who believe the alarm is overblown. Entry level jobs, they say, are not disappearing. Those tasks AI eliminates also create other employable jobs.

I doubt I'll be personally impacted one way or another. Now my grandchildren and their cousins most certainly will be. The question becomes how do young people now choose a reliable and stable career?

Post derived from CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs, Chip Cutter and Haley Zimmerman, Wall Street Journal, 7/2/2025 (Paywall)

 

[Sweden]

AI finally has my attention.

Major company CEOs are talking about major worker cutbacks due to the emergence of AI tools. Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley predicts half of white-collar workers will be replaced. Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase CEO, could see her labor force reduced by 10%.

“This is a wake-up call,” [Micha Kaufman, CEO of Fiverr] wrote. “It does not matter if you are a programmer, designer, product manager, data scientist, lawyer, customer support rep, salesperson, or a finance person—AI is coming for you.”

There are executives who believe the alarm is overblown. Entry level jobs, they say, are not disappearing. Those tasks AI eliminates also create other employable jobs.

I doubt I'll be personally impacted one way or another. Now my grandchildren and their cousins most certainly will be. The question becomes how do young people now choose a reliable and stable career?

Post derived from CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs, Chip Cutter and Haley Zimmerman, Wall Street Journal, 7/2/2025 (Paywall)

The only thing that can be predicted with confidence is that economic predictions are always wrong.

 

[JoeB131]

AI finally has my attention.

Major company CEOs are talking about major worker cutbacks due to the emergence of AI tools. Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley predicts half of white-collar workers will be replaced. Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase CEO, could see her labor force reduced by 10%.

“This is a wake-up call,” [Micha Kaufman, CEO of Fiverr] wrote. “It does not matter if you are a programmer, designer, product manager, data scientist, lawyer, customer support rep, salesperson, or a finance person—AI is coming for you.”

There are executives who believe the alarm is overblown. Entry level jobs, they say, are not disappearing. Those tasks AI eliminates also create other employable jobs.

I doubt I'll be personally impacted one way or another. Now my grandchildren and their cousins most certainly will be. The question becomes how do young people now choose a reliable and stable career?

Post derived from CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs, Chip Cutter and Haley Zimmerman, Wall Street Journal, 7/2/2025 (Paywall)

I've been hearing the 'You are going to be replaced by a machine" since the 1970's.

AI is a tool, not a replacement.

 

[Airyaman]

Might be already happening.

Microsoft's largest layoff in years hits Xbox, sales and other divisions

Microsoft says it is laying off about 9,000 workers, its second mass layoff in months and its largest in more than two years.

apnews.com

Laying off massively (this is their 2nd round this year) and they're making money hand over fist.

Microsoft says quarterly profits up 18% as it weathers tech sector turbulence with cloud growth

Microsoft on Wednesday said its profits rose 18% for the January-March quarter, driven by its growth in its cloud computing and artificial intelligence business in a turbulent time for the tech sector.

apnews.com

 

[Sweden]

I've been hearing the 'You are going to be replaced by a machine" since the 1970's.

AI is a tool, not a replacement.

Me too. Except I recall the same fears were current even in the 1950s.

 

[upsideguy]

I've been hearing the 'You are going to be replaced by a machine" since the 1970's.

AI is a tool, not a replacement.

Most US manufacturing jobs have been replaced by machines......

 

[Helix]

The rich should probably study some historical examples of what can happen when the working classes are relegated to poverty with little hope.

 

[Peacenik]

Tax the owners of AI to pay for UBI.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

The only thing that can be predicted with confidence is that economic predictions are always wrong.

And if they aren't wrong?

 

[Visbek]

Oh, whatever. This is just the usual Hype Cycle with a Luddite Twist.

AI is nowhere near good enough to replace workers for many jobs. It just isn't ready for prime time, and it's already consuming itself by flooding the Internet with AI Slop, and training itself on that same AI Slop.

AI can perform some tasks quickly, and I don't think we know all the use cases for it. But the idea that it's going to kill 20% of jobs, with the implication that it will create zero jobs, just doesn't add up.

 

[Along Came Jones]

And if they aren't wrong?

cc: @Sweden @JoeB131

The question is not "if" but "how" right the CEO's predictions might be. Technology does replace jobs. It will be a matter of which jobs and how quickly they mostly go away.

A few trivial examples to which others may easily expand; switchboard operators, elevator attendants, pinball boys, and going far into the past, wheelwrights, farriers and blacksmiths. Now the vulnerable class appears to be white collar skills and professions.

 

[Allan]

The question becomes how do young people now choose a reliable and stable career?

That is the big question. If a young person were to ask me 10 years ago what fields they should study for I'd be able to offer advice.

Today? I don't have a clue.

People entering university today may graduate with a degree for an occupation that no longer exists.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Tax the owners of AI to pay for UBI.

Uh uh uhhhhh, AI cannot be regulated for the next ten years.
MAGA lovers supported this.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

The top future occupations will be in coding and robotics, for sure.
But most of those jobs will be close to minimum wage because the demand for them will be epic level.

 

[Peacenik]

Uh uh uhhhhh, AI cannot be regulated for the next ten years.
MAGA lovers supported this.

Ugh. Didn't know that yet. Whuddah giveaway to the rich. It really is getting pretty blatant how much the Republicans suck up to the super rich.

The super-rich can still be taxed to pay for a UBI. It's coming sooner or later.

As soon as enough people can't find work to keep the economy going the super-rich will have to be forced to pay enough tax to fund a UBI for the rest.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Ugh. Didn't know that yet. Whuddah giveaway to the rich. It really is getting pretty blatant how much the Republicans suck up to the super rich.

The super-rich can still be taxed to pay for a UBI. It's coming sooner or later.

As soon as enough people can't find work to keep the economy going the super-rich will have to be forced to pay enough tax to fund a UBI for the rest.

BS, because whatever they call UBI will never be enough to even subsist on, and it will be tied to loyalty points so if you say the wrong thing, even to your friends, out you go.
Groveling for crumbs is not what I signed up for.

 

[reinaert]

Toffler predicted all of it. The revolt of the rich.

 

[Peacenik]

BS, because whatever they call UBI will never be enough to even subsist on, and it will be tied to loyalty points so if you say the wrong thing, even to your friends, out you go.
Groveling for crumbs is not what I signed up for.

People are going to need to live on something after all the jobs are gone.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

People are going to need to live on something after all the jobs are gone.

I don't dispute that in the least.
I'm simply saying it will be used as a means of keeping people in line instead of what it should be.
I do realize the inevitability of robots taking away huge numbers of jobs but I think each robot should be taxed to help pay for a decent UBI if that is the route we intend to take.

 

[rickc]

I don't dispute that in the least.
I'm simply saying it will be used as a means of keeping people in line instead of what it should be.
I do realize the inevitability of robots taking away huge numbers of jobs but I think each robot should be taxed to help pay for a decent UBI if that is the route we intend to take.

Robots taxed?

Please!!!

Not with republicans in charge.

 

[JoeB131]

Most US manufacturing jobs have been replaced by machines......

And have been replaced with other jobs.

My grandfather lost a finger in an industrial accident.
My father died young because he was sucking up asbestos on a daily basis.
So when one of you guys tells me that "Oh, the jobs our fathers had are gone", I just can't get teary-eyed about it.

My job is much safer and less stressful, sitting behind a desk operating a computer.

 

[j brown's body]

People are going to need to live on something after all the jobs are gone.

Where will they get their health insurance?

 

[Peter]

The entire nature of money and the economy may need to drastically change if most jobs are automated.
There are plenty of ways to go but a UBI seems like the least worst option.

 

[ScrambledEggs]

As far as programming goes, it can be useful. I had to merge a directory of CSV files into one CSV file & instead of writing the nodejs script, I had ChatGPT do it for me. The script worked and all I had to do was tweak some output paths.

But this lets me focus on bigger picture stuff: solution architecture, developer tools, business requirements, training & mentoring junior developers. I don't need to waste an hour or two of time on something I know I can do, but don't need to do it myself.

Would I trust ChatGPT/AI to design, code & manage an entire enterprise system, with heavy B2B integrations, 50 databases & a heavy security / identity layer? **** noooo

 

[Parrish]

People are going to need to live on something after all the jobs are gone.

Picking crops or meat packing?