1 to 1.5 million infected people in 11 days

[swing_voter]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

 

[Ikari]

Hard to say. I don't know how well the social distancing is going nor how long normal people will be able to hold on during this. People need to be able to work and pay bills.

Could it get that high? I suppose, though not even China saw those numbers. 30K dead might be realizable. I'm still holding out hope that we've taken things seriously enough to limit that number.

 

[eman623]

Hard to say. I don't know how well the social distancing is going nor how long normal people will be able to hold on during this. People need to be able to work and pay bills.

Could it get that high? I suppose, though not even China saw those numbers. 30K dead might be realizable. I'm still holding out hope that we've taken things seriously enough to limit that number.

China is probably lying about how many are infected and how many deaths they have had. They've lied about this from the start, so why stop now. They could have 10x what they are reporting.

As for us, the increase is people who caught this 2 weeks ago. We don't know how many are catching this today. It could be the physical distance measures are working.

 

[Ikari]

China is probably lying about how many are infected and how many deaths they have had. They've lied about this from the start, so why stop now. They could have 10x what they are reporting.

As for us, the increase is people who caught this 2 weeks ago. We don't know how many are catching this today. It could be the physical distance measures are working.

It is true that China is far from trustworthy. They very well could have (and most certainly did) hide their numbers. I do hope that the physical distancing measures are being taken seriously and are working. I think we can really affect this crisis by taking it seriously and taking the social distancing seriously. Though we should probably quit hoarding toilet paper and such.

 

[SheWolf]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

We have almost a million infected globally. It is spreading fast. We had over 20,000 new cases and over 1,000 deaths yesterday in America

 

[Robertinfremont]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

Not if all of us wash our hands using soap (not alcohol) and water. Alcohol works but takes you a bit longer. Soap will save you from being infected. I have the same videos you have by the way.

 

[cpwill]

Hard to say. I don't know how well the social distancing is going nor how long normal people will be able to hold on during this. People need to be able to work and pay bills.

Could it get that high? I suppose, though not even China saw those numbers. 30K dead might be realizable. I'm still holding out hope that we've taken things seriously enough to limit that number.

I would.... strongly recommend not taking Chinese numbers at face value... or, even, within an order of magnitude of face value.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

We almost certainly have more than a million infected already right? Our statistics are limited by our ability to test.

3% death rate or anything close to it only happens if the health care system totally collapses -- a danger in NYC, maybe, but not for most Americans. Unless we decide to choke off our supply chains out of fear. But that will kill more than the virus, anyway.

 

[Robertinfremont]

We have almost a million infected globally. It is spreading fast. We had over 20,000 new cases and over 1,000 deaths yesterday in America

But you wash your hands often with soap don't you? And rinse off with water after a full 20 seconds, don't you?

 

[eman623]

It is true that China is far from trustworthy. They very well could have (and most certainly did) hide their numbers. I do hope that the physical distancing measures are being taken seriously and are working. I think we can really affect this crisis by taking it seriously and taking the social distancing seriously. Though we should probably quit hoarding toilet paper and such.

Agree. I am going to call it "physical distancing" and not "social distancing". We want to keep people socially connected even if they must stay physically apart.

 

[dcaraz]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

I think we may see double the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths projected by Dr Fauci and Dr Birx.
Primarily because of folks who make up their own reality--and deniers among our leaders who have failed to respond to the Covid-19 attack.

As of this morning the US still had 15 states with zero Covid-19 restrictions.
Thank you to the Governors of FL, TX, GA, ME, AZ, SC, WY, TN, OK, MS, NE, AR, IA. MO. ND & SD!
Your stubborn ignorance has put your citizens at greater risk, and will assure a deadlier deeper and more devastating disaster.

These states will allow the pandemic to spread more broadly -- and kill more Americans -- than would have happened had
the federal government issued a nationwide restriction for all non-essential businesses and organizations to close and all Americans
not essential to our public safety and welfare seclude themselves and maintain safe distances from each other.

For that we can all thank President Trump who on February 5th ignored US Senators who pleaded with him to use the
presidential powers to generate higher emergency production of essential medical equipment and supplies.

 

[dcaraz]

I would.... strongly recommend not taking Chinese numbers at face value... or, even, within an order of magnitude of face value.

I'm in agreement. China has two good reasons to minimize Covid-19 outbreak.
Their economic focus on getting their manufacturing sector back ASAP.
And the Chinese Communist Party is also very concerned about losing face on the world stage.
Unfortunately, the global economy is not going to suddenly place orders for China-made goods when the US and EU economies are in mothballs.

 

[dcaraz]

Our statistics are limited by our ability to test.
3% death rate or anything close to it only happens if the health care system totally collapses -- a danger in NYC, maybe, but not for most Americans.

We all love to track data, but these statistics are likely only accurate regarding death counts -- and that only if hospitals can be sure of Covid-19 deaths and if governments provide accurate reporting.
ALL other stats are some percentage of reality as measured 10 to 14 days behind the infection exposure to the unsuspecting population who come in contact with the infected asymptomatic.

Eventually we will better understand how our government's slow reflexes led to the higher death toll the US is headed toward.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

We all love to track data, but these statistics are likely only accurate regarding death counts -- and that only if hospitals can be sure of Covid-19 deaths and if governments provide accurate reporting.
ALL other stats are some percentage of reality as measured 10 to 14 days behind the infection exposure to the unsuspecting population who come in contact with the infected asymptomatic.

Eventually we will better understand how our government's slow reflexes led to the higher death toll the US is headed toward.

The infection measurements lag, the death toll does not, because we test all the people who die or get really, really sick, so we know they died of it. The vast majority of infected never get tested, due to limited testing and self-selection because they're just not that sick.

The death rate will plummet as more data emerge, it's inevitable. With how quickly this thing is spreading, it's clearly incredibly virulent -- which means it's not nearly as deadly as worst-case scenarios presume.

 

[bluesmoke]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

The number of deaths, yes. The number of infected, no. That number does not double every 4 days. If the current rate of change in rate of infected continues, it's closer to 700K by 3/12. If the current rate of increase in fatality continues, much higher than 30K fatalities. That would be a 4.3% death rate at 30K. Our current death rate is 2.1, the global is 5.0. We didn't get started on responding to the virus any sooner nor with any greater effort than any other country. I'd think 30K is a reasonably conservative, safe estimate, knowing what little we do for not having yet tested many people. IMO.

 

[jmotivator]

It doubles every 4 days.

And with a 3% death rate, that's at least 30,000 dead.

He keeps saying he's not a fear monger. I don't think he is, but I do think he's trying to get people to take things seriously.

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

This is like the old Steven Wright joke that he was freaked out on his second birthday because his aged had doubled in a year and he realized that at that rate he would be 64 years old in 6 years.

You can't presume an endless doubling because the underlying population is not homogeneous, and disease tends to hit the most susceptible first, so rate of acceleration depends on a fuel source that is unknown and impacted by countermeasures.

 

[Paradoxical]

China is probably lying about how many are infected and how many deaths they have had. They've lied about this from the start, so why stop now. They could have 10x what they are reporting.

As for us, the increase is people who caught this 2 weeks ago. We don't know how many are catching this today. It could be the physical distance measures are working.

I watched the worldometer daily since the outset. At one point, China hit 80,000 about two weeks ago. Now it's only 81,500? That is almost a mathematical impossibility because they had been increasing by thousands a day and all of a sudden it just stopped? Who is checking their numbers? It certainly isn't the WHO, because they are in bed with them. How do you check China when they have a state run press like the leftists admire here?

 

[Slavister]

Do you think we'll see a million infected in 11 days?

As I said in another thread...

We have ~4400 deaths as of now in USA. It takes 2-8 weeks to die after getting infected.

Therefore...

If death toll is 1% of the infected people (not just confirmed, but infected), we already had 440,000 infected 2-8 weeks ago.

If death toll is 0.66% of the infected people, we already had 666,000 infected 2-8 weeks ago.

Either way, we are likely into MANY millions already if those projected death tolls are accurate.

"Confirmed cases" is very different of course, because we are testing very few people (and of course after we test them, they can get infected as well).

 

[Mr Person]

Anderson Cooper: “Trump and the Senate Majority leader are now suggesting that impeachment distracted the President from responding to the virus. Do you buy that at all?”

Pelosi: “I think that’s an admission that perhaps the President, and the Majority leader, cannot handle the job. We have a life and death situation in our country, and they should not try to hide behind an excuse for why they did not take action. But it does admit that they did not take action...


No doubt the usual suspects will make noise about Pelosi. But then, they make the exact same noise about every single Democrat. Projection and bias. That's all that is.

 

[jmotivator]

I watched the worldometer daily since the outset. At one point, China hit 80,000 about two weeks ago. Now it's only 81,500? That is almost a mathematical impossibility because they had been increasing by thousands a day and all of a sudden it just stopped? Who is checking their numbers? It certainly isn't the WHO, because they are in bed with them. How do you check China when they have a state run press like the leftists admire here?

I don't think the China numbers are accurate. But then there is also another possible explanation. Since it appears that all of these SARS illnesses are emerging from the same region of China, it is entirely possible that the Chinese have, to some extent, built an immunity to the SARS virus strains.

I mean it's possible, but the Occam's razor explanation is that they are just lying.

 

[CaughtInThe]

China is probably lying about how many are infected...

Word




And Russia

 

[Paradoxical]

I don't think the China numbers are accurate. But then there is also another possible explanation. Since it appears that all of these SARS illnesses are emerging from the same region of China, it is entirely possible that the Chinese have, to some extent, built an immunity to the SARS virus strains.

I mean it's possible, but the Occam's razor explanation is that they are just lying.

I think they are lying. Something is really troubling when this virus spreads so fast in China and they were at 80,000 weeks ago and now less than a hundred a day? They didn't lock down Wuhan immediately. It took at least 20 days and millions upon millions came and went to and from there before they closed the city off, and that would include people from all parts of the world as well as those fro Wuhan going to and from other parts of China and yet their infection rates are only 81,500 on a country of 1 and a half billion? Something is seriously amiss. This source says the following:

Five million people left Wuhan before the lockdown, where did they go? - CGTN

About five million residents left Wuhan, before the lockdown due to the novel coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on January 26 at a press conference.

China is pressing back hard against Australia and other who say this came from China they don't want that tag. The WHO obliged them by naming it COVID-19

 

[eman623]

I watched the worldometer daily since the outset. At one point, China hit 80,000 about two weeks ago. Now it's only 81,500? That is almost a mathematical impossibility because they had been increasing by thousands a day and all of a sudden it just stopped? Who is checking their numbers? It certainly isn't the WHO, because they are in bed with them. How do you check China when they have a state run press like the leftists admire here?

It's worth noting that China's curve leveled off right about the time they expelled all foreign journalists. Must be a coincidence.

 

[Paradoxical]

It's worth noting that China's curve leveled off right about the time they expelled all foreign journalists. Must be a coincidence.

I imagine they are using the WHO to verify what they say.