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Has Bernie Sanders basically won the nomination?

Has Sanders basically won the nomination?

  • Definitely will win

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Probably will win

    Votes: 35 57.4%

  • Uncertain either way

    Votes: 17 27.9%

  • Probably will NOT win

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Definitely will NOT win

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .
Taylor said:
Or Biden sprouting wings and a halo - equally likely.
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I hear Biden is throwing it all in on SC. He said today that Russia is trying to keep him from winning the nomination.
Joe Biden: Russians trying to hurt my campaign, but 'they like Bernie'
It isn't Russia that is his biggest problem. It is Bloomberg. Looking at RCP if Bloomberg wasn't in the race Biden could easily take out Sanders in California and Texas overwhelmingly. Two states that are delegate rich.

Buttigieg came in a distant 3rd and with over 80% of the votes counted in the second round he has not earned any delegates. However his campaign is complaining about irregularities asking for recounts of votes.
Nevada caucuses vote: Pete Buttigieg campaign alleges irregularities
 
vesper said:
I hear Biden is throwing it all in on SC. He said today that Russia is trying to keep him from winning the nomination.
Joe Biden: Russians trying to hurt my campaign, but 'they like Bernie'
It isn't Russia that is his biggest problem. It is Bloomberg. Looking at RCP if Bloomberg wasn't in the race Biden could easily take out Sanders in California and Texas overwhelmingly. Two states that are delegate rich.

Buttigieg came in a distant 3rd and with over 80% of the votes counted in the second round he has not earned any delegates. However his campaign is complaining about irregularities asking for recounts of votes.
Nevada caucuses vote: Pete Buttigieg campaign alleges irregularities
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Biden's lead vs Sanders was dropping (and narrow) in CA before Bloomberg entered. In Texas, the rise of Sanders appears to have more to do with the collapse of Warren.
 
The Rebellion is winning, and we are going to win, because the elite have failed and because the masses eventually wise up.
 
Risky Thicket said:
Fair question. No, the situation is less normal than it has been in my lifetime. This nation desperately needs to throw the two party system into the boneyard. It has been my practice to vote for the candidate that I believe would represent most of my views. In the previous presidential election I voted third party. I now regret that. In November I will vote for a Democrat for president because I sincerely believe what is left of our democracy is in great peril.

In a larger view our fecked up two party system is tantamount to having a two team professional sports league that is controlled by the owners. The system virtually guarantees both teams that they will always be in the playoffs. Both teams are assured of making big money no matter who wins or who comes in second place. Both teams are guaranteed that they will always share the power, sometimes more and sometimes less. Both teams make the rules. And while the fans watch and cheer or jeer the fans have no power whatsoever even though they pay and pay and pay to support the two team league.
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And yet, with all that power and all those guarantees and 20+ candidates... the current Democrat frontrunner is not really a Democrat at all. Unless he wins. Then he gets to say.

I really don't see what a third party or a fourth would really add or change.
 
Diesel said:
People should be required to pass a sobriety test before they log onto the internet.
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I would never fail one - guaranteed.

Now there's an idea: Let's have a section just for people who are old enough to vote but too young to drink.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Assusming he is still on your ballot. When is your state's Election Day?
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Not until the end of April, but Buttigieg will be on the ballot even if he drops out before then.
 
Blue Donkey said:
I would never fail one - guaranteed.

Now there's an idea: Let's have a section just for people who are old enough to vote but too young to drink.
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And too young to vape in some places now.
 
Diesel said:
And too young to vape in some places now.
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There will be neither smoking nor anything that looks like smoking in UTOPIA.

This was long ago decided by your betters.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
There will be neither smoking nor anything that looks like smoking in UTOPIA.

This was long ago decided by your betters.
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The other poster was right about you. Goodbye.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
This country is so upset that our "leaders" are such liars and R so incompetent.

There is a Rebellion afoot.

D U all Understand now?

?
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Since you explained this extremely complex scenario so clearly and succinctly, how can we not understand?
Thanks for your insightful comments.
 
vesper said:
I hear Biden is throwing it all in on SC. He said today that Russia is trying to keep him from winning the nomination.
Joe Biden: Russians trying to hurt my campaign, but 'they like Bernie'
It isn't Russia that is his biggest problem. It is Bloomberg. Looking at RCP if Bloomberg wasn't in the race Biden could easily take out Sanders in California and Texas overwhelmingly. Two states that are delegate rich.

Buttigieg came in a distant 3rd and with over 80% of the votes counted in the second round he has not earned any delegates. However his campaign is complaining about irregularities asking for recounts of votes.
Nevada caucuses vote: Pete Buttigieg campaign alleges irregularities
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The non-progressives (i.e. most of the Democrat party) are clamouring for a sensible candidate. Democrats are finally realizing - way too late - that Biden is way past his "sell-by" date. He sucked all of the air out of the room, and most of the more moderate, sensible candidates were forced to exit early. Bloomberg is the only alternative, but from what I've seen in ads and debate, it's hard to imagine them doubling down on old white guy.

I'm really at a loss to explain how Democrats can balance what they claim is one of the most important "must win" elections in years with what is certainly the weakest field of Democrat candidates in my lifetime.
 
jaypatriot said:
Since you explained this extremely complex scenario so clearly and succinctly, how can we not understand?
Thanks for your insightful comments.
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I know right!

It's not like this is rocket science!
 
Drugs will rot your mind, ladies and gentlemen.
 
Taylor said:
The non-progressives (i.e. most of the Democrat party) are clamouring for a sensible candidate. Democrats are finally realizing - way too late - that Biden is way past his "sell-by" date. He sucked all of the air out of the room, and most of the more moderate, sensible candidates were forced to exit early. Bloomberg is the only alternative, but from what I've seen in ads and debate, it's hard to imagine them doubling down on old white guy.

I'm really at a loss to explain how Democrats can balance what they claim is one of the most important "must win" elections in years with what is certainly the weakest field of Democrat candidates in my lifetime.
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I am not sure at this point if most of the Democratic party really care if their candidate is a socialist. A recent Gallup poll said 76% of Democrats would vote for a socialist. The poll however also stated that the majority of Americans would not support a socialist. Personally I find it very sad that so many in the U.S. would be fine with voting for a socialist.

Majority of voters would not back a socialist for president: Poll

I know the Democratic establishment is really concerned over Bernie winning the nomination. They see real damage on down ticket races in purple and red states. They are calling for those who have no chance of achieving the nomination to get out of the race now so as to allow those who do to coalesce to counter Sanders. I have no idea how this will turn out but it is really interesting to watch. But if you watched the round table on ABC today Christie said if Bernie gets the nomination, Republicans will be happy because it will be a race between Socialism vs Capitalism. If Bernie gets the most votes heading to the convention and the super delegates take it away from him, the Republicans will be ecstatic.

If you happen to still be up President Trump and the First Lady have been welcomed in India. They are saying no prior U.S president has received such an elaborate welcome. It started with the bear hug President Modi gave President Trump. The streets are lined with people as the president's motorcade travels to the next destination. Quite impressive.
 
Crosscheck said:
Too early. After Super Tuesday we will all have a better view.

It appears it will come down to Bernie and Pete.

Maybe not today but possibly in a few days it will be time for Elizabeth, Joe, and Amy to say adios.
And right now I am thinking Elizabeth and Amy would give their support to Bernie. Am not certain about Joe.
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Sanders has large D-Latino support... with CA and TX... the once hope for Democrats in 2016 may turn out to be the shiv in their backs!!!

Poetic justice.

And it is so because Sanders is the only one who really reached out to them.
 
Blue Donkey said:
It is way too early to guarantere Bernie Sanders will win. The Iowa caucus was ruled "an effective tie" between him and Pete Buttigieg. In New Hampshire, again Sanders won more popular votes, but tied with Buttigieg in delegates. (Having a primary, where popular votes matter, gave Sanders the win.) Nevada therefore is the first true win for Sanders if you care more about delegates than the popular vote. That is where he really took off running. Now Sanders needs to keep that momentum going in South Carolina.
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Buttigeg has zero chance.

Biden has zero chance.

Klobuchar has zero chance.

Pocahontas has zero chance.

Steyer has zero chance.

Bloomy has a chance but Biden, Buttigeg and Klobuchar need to drop out before Super Tuesday. Biden won’t.

If Warren drops out before Super Tuesday... Sanders picks up a large chunk of her small vote tally.

Sanders is going to do well even if Bloomberg gets his wish... because he was gutted in the last debate which got a lot of eyeballs and media coverage. Mike won’t get it done.

Sanders has huge D-Latino support... which means massive points in Commi-CA and TX.

I have to agree with Chris Matthews... “It’s over.”
 
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It's too early to call it for Bernie at this point, but he looks to have the best chance at the moment. We'll have a much clearer picture after super Tuesday and I strongly suspect we'll see another round of candidates drop out then. My guess is that we'll be down to a two person race after Super Tuesday with Bernie and one of the moderate candidates (Biden, Buttigieg, or god forbid Bloomberg) still in the race.
 
Depends on what the DNC will do or say. So far, there is no clear winner in Iowa, and the Democrat party isn't happy with Crazy Bernie. Not because they disagree with him on the issues. They're in COMPLETE alignment there. Rather, when he opens up his mouth and starts talking about what the Left actually wants to do, the Democrats come in and basically tell him " SHUT UP, SHUT UP, SHUT UP YOU IDIOT!!!" Whenever their true intentions are revealed, people find their policies EXTREMELY unpopular and unwanting. What ends up happening is they get killed at the ballot box and it sets them back several years. That's THE main reason the Democrats don't want Crazy Bernie, he's giving away their plans when they want it ALL hidden away from the public eye.
 
No, it's so far going by the script
 
FieldTheorist said:
I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California) and basically is a very close #2 in every state where he's not #1. The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.


Yes, shake-ups happen, but it's looking less and less possible as the election continues.
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If 2-3 people don't drop out before Super Tuesday Bernie is the nominee.
 
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