Has Bernie Sanders basically won the nomination?

I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California) and basically is a very close #2 in every state where he's not #1. The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.


Yes, shake-ups happen, but it's looking less and less possible as the election continues.

FieldTheorist said:

I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California). The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.

Click to expand...

While it's too early to say anything definitively, it increasingly looks like this might be over, especially with Biden now barely exceeding Bernie's support in his supposedly impenetrable fortress that is SC. I would personally wait until Super Tuesday before arriving at anything like a definitive conclusion, but if I had to put money down, and I have, yes, Sanders thus far looks poised to win this thing between his obvious momentum, galvanized base and its strong donations, the collapse of his top rivals, his status as a leading second choice, and coming off as the most electable candidate in the field.

FieldTheorist said:

I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California). The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.

Click to expand...

Lets not count anybody out just yet. Only three states have voted as of now. Super Tuesday will tell us the information we need. With that info we will be better position to make educated guesses as to the probable outcome of the Democratic primary.

FieldTheorist said:

I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California). The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.


Yes, shake-ups happen, but it's looking less and less possible as the election continues.

Click to expand...

538 has him at about 46 % to win the majority of delegates, which sounds about right. He is a favorite to win, but there are a whole lot of ways he could lose. Hopefully, something happens to bring him down.

This country is so upset that our "leaders" are such liars and R so incompetent.

There is a Rebellion afoot.

D U all Understand now?

?

Too early. After Super Tuesday we will all have a better view.

It appears it will come down to Bernie and Pete.

Maybe not today but possibly in a few days it will be time for Elizabeth, Joe, and Amy to say adios.
And right now I am thinking Elizabeth and Amy would give their support to Bernie. Am not certain about Joe.

yes. nothing ever changes between (before) Super Tuesday and the convention.

Probably, well see Super Tuesday which is only 2 weeks away.

CaughtInThe said:

yes. nothing ever changes between (before) Super Tuesday and the convention.

Click to expand...

This post is thin gruel.

swing_voter said:

Probably, well see Super Tuesday which is only 2 weeks away.

Click to expand...

"I will await the evidence!"

Smart Man U!

Crosscheck said:

Too early. After Super Tuesday we will all have a better view.

It appears it will come down to Bernie and Pete.

Maybe not today but possibly in a few days it will be time for Elizabeth, Joe, and Amy to say adios.
And right now I am thinking Elizabeth and Amy would give their support to Bernie. Am not certain about Joe.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure how Pete manages to be a competitor with Sanders given his mediocre to terrible polling outside of the two states he dumped the vast majority of his load on in seeking a momentum moonshot that never actually materialized (Iowa and NH).

Bernie is in the drivers seat for sure but it ain't over yet. remember, Bill Clinton didn't win a primary until Georgia.

PirateMk1 said:

Lets not count anybody out just yet. Only three states have voted as of now. Super Tuesday will tell us the information we need. With that info we will be better position to make educated guesses as to the probable outcome of the Democratic primary.

Click to expand...

I'm not counting anyone out, I'm merely pointing out that short of a lot of polls suddenly changing in 9 days against the candidate with momentum and energetic base (yes, technically possible but not probable), Sanders will walk away having won Super Tuesday. I agree we'll know more after Super Tuesday, but we can still read demographic break downs and state polling to get estimates about how it will go. And so far, it looks like a lot of unlikely events will have to happen to make Sanders walk away from Super Tuesday as a losing candidate.

azgreg said:

Bernie is in the drivers seat for sure but it ain't over yet. remember, Bill Clinton didn't win a primary until Georgia.

Click to expand...

Such ancient history that it does not matter....but then I must ask....how is it that U do not know?

I hate it when trolls quote me.

we're not past "super Tuesday" and all of the states that are deemed unworthy to count.

FieldTheorist said:

I'm not counting anyone out, I'm merely pointing out that short of a lot of polls suddenly changing in 9 days against the candidate with momentum and energetic base (yes, technically possible but not probable), Sanders will walk away having won Super Tuesday. I agree we'll know more after Super Tuesday, but we can still read demographic break downs and state polling to get estimates about how it will go. And so far, it looks like a lot of unlikely events will have to happen to make Sanders walk away from Super Tuesday as a losing candidate.

Click to expand...

Sometimes I think that U understand what is going on, other times I wonder...Here it is...the elite will screw Bernie out of the nomination if they think that they can, otherwise we are are going to have Bernie/Donald...which is absolute proof that The Intelligentsia Have Failed.

Crosscheck said:

Too early. After Super Tuesday we will all have a better view.

It appears it will come down to Bernie and Pete.

Maybe not today but possibly in a few days it will be time for Elizabeth, Joe, and Amy to say adios.
And right now I am thinking Elizabeth and Amy would give their support to Bernie. Am not certain about Joe.

Click to expand...

Warren would but Klobuchar? She'd be better off running as Buttigieg's VP, but she's from the same region.

Crosscheck said:

Too early. After Super Tuesday we will all have a better view.

It appears it will come down to Bernie and Pete.

Maybe not today but possibly in a few days it will be time for Elizabeth, Joe, and Amy to say adios.
And right now I am thinking Elizabeth and Amy would give their support to Bernie. Am not certain about Joe.

Click to expand...

It's really easy to tell that someone doesn't understand the current political meta when they say something like "Klobuchar is likely to give their support to Bernie." If Klobuchar was going to give her support to Bernie, she'd do it this week and endorse this week because as a political operative this would maximize the amount she could get from Bernie (if she drops, he'll go from #2 to #1 in Minnesota, which would be very good for Bernie). So if she wanted to get VP or similar, now is the time. The problem is that 100% of her millionaire donors are backing her as an attempt to stop Bernie from winning, and she's very clear (and very incorrect) on her belief that Sanders cannot win the general election.

FieldTheorist said:

It's really easy to tell that someone doesn't understand the current political meta when they say something like "Klobuchar is likely to give their support to Bernie." If Klobuchar was going to give her support to Bernie, she'd do it this week and endorse this week because as a political operative this would maximize the amount she could get from Bernie (if she drops, he'll go from #2 to #1 in Minnesota, which would be very good for Bernie). So if she wanted to get VP or similar, now is the time. The problem is that 100% of her millionaire donors are backing her as an attempt to stop Bernie from winning, and she's very clear (and very incorrect) on her belief that Sanders cannot win the general election.

Click to expand...

OMG...you dont know Minnesota!

It is all clear now!

!

Hawkeye10 said:

This post is thin gruel.

Click to expand...

"Redundant and repetitive," says the Uncreative Gazette.

All the candidates should stay in. This has just begun. Even having 1 delegate could be a bargaining chip at the convention. That sort of thing can get a person a great appointment, pledge to pay off campaign debts, favor with Pelosi, Schumer or the president if the Democrats win - plus constant ongoing name ID for future value.

Bernie's victory is uncertain at this time.

If we wins more than 50% of the SC minority vote, his probability of achieving a very favorable position in Super Tuesday is probable.

FieldTheorist said:

It's really easy to tell that someone doesn't understand the current political meta when they say something like "Klobuchar is likely to give their support to Bernie." If Klobuchar was going to give her support to Bernie, she'd do it this week and endorse this week because as a political operative this would maximize the amount she could get from Bernie (if she drops, he'll go from #2 to #1 in Minnesota, which would be very good for Bernie). So if she wanted to get VP or similar, now is the time. The problem is that 100% of her millionaire donors are backing her as an attempt to stop Bernie from winning, and she's very clear (and very incorrect) on her belief that Sanders cannot win the general election.

Click to expand...

She should stay in because if Warren goes down, she'll gain many of those votes. She's NOT over 70. There isn't a lot of scandal around her. She gets name ID all along the way, and even a few delegates are great bargaining chips at the convention. She gains nothing by dropping out.

Diesel said:

"Redundant and repetitive," says the Uncreative Gazette.

Click to expand...

So you fail at the English language too..I am not shocked.

Where did you U do your indoctrination?

This will likely explain a lot!