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Unemployement Drops: Legitimate or Not?

People with more spendable income help increase corporate profits and create more employment thus more taxpayers.

yeah I'm familiar with the concept. Examining the split one might get a sense of a) time to impact of personal cuts b) corporate tax cuts effects on personal taxes c) maximal and minimal split on gdp growth and a few other neat things to know when discussing such topics as taxation as an economic tool.
 
Hogwash. The figure from this last month is way out of line with the trend. Any reasonable person would know as much.

yes, its called an anomoly, not a conspiracy.
 
yeah I'm familiar with the concept. Examining the split one might get a sense of a) time to impact of personal cuts b) corporate tax cuts effects on personal taxes c) maximal and minimal split on gdp growth and a few other neat things to know when discussing such topics as taxation as an economic tool.

when working Americans get a tax cut a couple things can happen, they can pay less in taxes or work more making more money because of the incentive to keep more of what they earn. Fixed income people will pay less in taxes giving them more spendable income and that creates jobs thus more taxpayers.
 
when working Americans get a tax cut a couple things can happen, they can pay less in taxes or work more

that doesn't really address my rationale for examing the split, now does it?
 
Hogwash. The figure from this last month is way out of line with the trend. Any reasonable person would know as much.
A total of 200K jobs was in the jobs report from bls.gov. 114K from Sept and revisions for July and August that totaled 86K.

Employment Situation Summary

Last paragraph of the Employment Situation Summary said:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to
+142,000.
 
A total of 200K jobs was in the jobs report from bls.gov. 114K from Sept and revisions for July and August that totaled 86K.

Employment Situation Summary

Well, then unemployment couldn't possibly have dropped by 0.3%.

Do you guys feel good about yourselves writing apologia for this nonsense?
 
Well, then unemployment couldn't possibly have dropped by 0.3%.

Do you guys feel good about yourselves writing apologia for this nonsense?

It has been a disastrous week for the Obamabots and they are looking for anything to take the focus off the empty suit's performance on Wednesday night and are grasping at a 7.8 percent unemployment number but not paying any attention to the labor participation rate, the U-6 numbers which show no change from the previous month as it stands at 14.7% and that equates to 22.7 million Americans of which 9.9 million are under employed.

Not sure how anyone can point to that rate as good news when the numbers are so bad making up that percentage. Median income is down, Discouraged workers remain over 800,000, and under employment means a lot of qualified people are taking jobs they are over qualified for because the Obama economy is so bad. the 1.3% GDP growth doesn't help at all either.

How anyone can support an incompetent President like Obama is beyond comprehension. my bet is that Obama's failures mirror many of his supporters failures as well. Guess misery loves company
 
Well, then unemployment couldn't possibly have dropped by 0.3%.

Do you guys feel good about yourselves writing apologia for this nonsense?

Could not possibly have dropped by 0.3%? Is it like the speed of light or something? Some law of physics that says the unemployment rate can't fall three tenths of one percent?

The right seems to have suffered a collective psychotic break.
 
It does seem that you have a reading comprehension problem and don't know the difference between population growth and job growth. Population growth means more deductions from taxes, job growth means more taxpayers. let me know if that still isn't clear.
I mentioned that population growth lead to more people paying taxes. Can we assume that I understand that taxes which are not paid do not contribute to tax revenue?
Are you willing to grant me that and let the semantics go?

It seems that the general upward trend in tax revenue may be in part a function of the growth of the number of persons in the tax base.
Cool? Or should we tweak the language a little more?

Apparently we didn't have any population growth when tax revenue dropped in your example.
I only said that population growth leads to the general trend upward.
AFAICT, it seems population growth would have to be about 100% responsible for any trend upward in order for a short term shrinkage of tax revenue to mean that the population did not grow.

If you are truly interested in revenue data then you obviously see that revenue went up AFTER the tax cuts so how can that be? Obama supporters seem to have a problem with that reality.
Now to me, that doesn't seem like the right question.
Looking at the data it seems to me that the natural state of affairs is for the tax revenue to go up. That seems to be the default.
The trend of tax revenue growth over the last century or so actually appears to have an almost exponential curve to it generally speaking. So not only does it seem to be on an upward trajectory, it seems to be increasing the rate at which it grows.
These two general trends, the upward movement and the increasing rate of growth, persist over the decades.

So, imho, the question isn't so much as to why revenue went up. The general trajectory of federal tax revenue for the last century or so seems to be one which is accelerating upward. For w/e reasons, revenue goes up.

1) Obviously tax revenues increased for decades and decades before the tax cuts, so there must be at least one other factor related to the growth of federal tax revenue beside these particular tax cuts.
2) Also, it seems that after a slight dip, the trajectory of tax revenue growth returned to the same slope it had been on before Bush took office. So that means that it is a definite possibility that that kind of growth can exist independent of the Bush era tax cuts. At least imho.
3) Since the kind of growth seen after the Bush era tax cuts is pretty much the same as growth before Bush took office and is in line with the general historical trend of increasing growth and increasing growth rate don't you think it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility some portion of the growth in tax revenue after the Bush era tax cuts was an effect of those tax cuts and how much was the result of other influences?

Imho, the question is how can you quantify the difference between the general historical trend and the actions of a particular party, policy or president. I don't think that a cursory examination of these few data such as we're doing here can make that determination.

I think you think that a cursory examination of these few data can enable you to quantify the difference between the general historical trend and the actions of a particular party, policy, or president. If you can show how much of the growth is the result of that specific policy and how much of the growth is from the other factors which contribute the general historical trend for tax revenues, it'd really cool for you to do so here on DP.
Or perhaps you feel that there is not any general historical trend of increasing tax revenue to make the differentiation from? idk.

What are your thoughts on the possibility that other factors beside the Bush era tax cuts could be responsible in any degree for tax revenues returning to the historical trend of growth? Implausible? Or worth considering for a moment?

Seems like you are getting into the weeds and ignoring the basic arguments of liberals and that is that tax revenue dropped after tax cuts.
What's the relevance of me ignoring that argument?
I haven't made that argument. You haven't made that argument. Why should I comment on that argument?
Why are you bringing up that argument?
Is it one that you can handily defeat?
If so, kudos to you. Have at it. Enjoy.

When you figure out the four components of GDP you will get your answer. Human behavior drives economic activity and tax revenue
How coy.
To be brief, I have asked the question more clearly above. You can choose to make your case and bring it to the table. Kind of the place for it, being DP and all. But that is not the only choice available to you.

I look forward to anyone here pulling something out of their to explain that one
After you explain about why I would know the answer to that question I'd be glad to imagine something for you. But, if you skipped the middle man, you could just imagine something up for yourself I s'pose. My imagination isn't one of my best features.

The first set of numbers includes SS and Medicare which LBJ in his wisdom put on budget
I mean where did you get them? What parameters did you have to put into what web site to generate them?
How can I replicate them / find these numbers for myself?
 
I find the figures unbelievable because Gallup's unemployment poll numbers are unchanged...
I don't see a big drop in Gallup's numbers, so apparently you're blowing smoke up my ass.
Well, "big" is kind of a vague word.
If we can agree to some other way of looking at it than "big vs little" or what have you...
Maybe if we examined the percentage points of change to see how in accord with each other the numbers of Gallup vs the numbers from the BLS are we could find a common middle ground as to whether or not the Gallup numbers provide and obvious reason to be suspicious of the BLS numbers. Maybe

BLS has the numbers going from 8.1% to 7.8%, a 0.3 percentage point drop, and Gallup has the numbers going from 8.1% to 7.9%,a 0.2 percentage point drop.

0.3% vs 0.2% => 0.1 percentage point difference

As I have stated elsewhere I have no special training in statistics or otherwise handling these sorts of data. So as a layman, I may be making a serious error somewhere. But, it seems to me that in this instance where the margin of error is an entire percentage point, (Gallup same link), that being within one tenth of a percentage point is actually a sign that Gallup's numbers are in relative accord with the BLS numbers.

If you can explain how this 0.1 percentage point variance--which is well w/in Gallup's margin of error--is actually a significant discrepancy, I might learn something.
 
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Well, "big" is kind of a vague word.
If we can agree to some other way of looking at it than "big vs little" or what have you...
Maybe if we examined the percentage points of change to see how in accord with each other the numbers of Gallup vs the numbers from the BLS are we could find a common middle ground as to whether or not the Gallup numbers provide and obvious reason to be suspicious of the BLS numbers. Maybe

BLS has the numbers going from 8.1% to 7.8%, a 0.3 percentage point drop, and Gallup has the numbers going from 8.1% to 7.9%,a 0.2 percentage point drop.

0.3% vs 0.2% => 0.1 percentage point difference

As I have stated elsewhere I have no special training in statistics or otherwise handling these sorts of data. So as a layman, I may be making a serious error somewhere. But, it seems to me that in this instance where the margin of error is an entire percentage point, (Gallup same link), that being within one tenth of a percentage point is actually a sign that Gallup's numbers are in relative accord with the BLS numbers.

If you can explain how this 0.1 percentage point variance--which is well w/in Gallup's margin of error--is actually a significant discrepancy, I might learn something.

You appear to be using the numbers that are not seasonally adjusted.
 
I find the figures unbelievable because Gallup's unemployment poll numbers are unchanged...
You appear to be using the numbers that are not seasonally adjusted.
I made a mistake, that is true.

The margin of error for Gallup is an entire percentage point, 1.0 percentage point. That means Gallup is saying their number represents an estimate between 6.9% to 8.9%.

I invite you to mix and match the four numbers as you please and then consider for a moment the question:
Is deviation w/in the margin of error significant enough to be "unbelievable"?
 
Figures don't lie, but liars use figures....Look, I am not buying it...The absurdity of counting 600K part time jobs, while at the same time dropping off unemployed people from the roles because their government subsidy ended, so they don't count, is laughable.
 
... dropping off unemployed people from the roles because their government subsidy ended...
Where does this idea come from?
It's certainly not in accord with what the BLS say they do.
The BLS say that they count everyone who reports that they are "actively looking for work." The BLS lays out their criteria for "actively looking for work." AFAICT, being on UI is not one of the criteria for being counted as "actively looking for work."

Since the info that people whose UI has run out are taken off the rolls of people "actively looking for work" does not come from the BLS--in fact it is seemingly contradicted by the info from the BLS about their methods, definitions, and criteria--I am curious where this mis-information comes from? This particular mis-information seems to be widely dispersed.

Where did you get this idea?
 
Where does this idea come from?
It's certainly not in accord with what the BLS say they do.
The BLS say that they count everyone who reports that they are "actively looking for work." The BLS lays out their criteria for "actively looking for work." AFAICT, being on UI is not one of the criteria for being counted as "actively looking for work."

Since the info that people whose UI has run out are taken off the rolls of people "actively looking for work" does not come from the BLS--in fact it is seemingly contradicted by the info from the BLS about their methods, definitions, and criteria--I am curious where this mis-information comes from? This particular mis-information seems to be widely dispersed.

Where did you get this idea?

The idea as you put it is clear. If you read the BLS press release on this subject which breaks down the different sectors, here: Employment Situation News Release You can see that there were 114K jobs created in Sept. Now, all experts say that you need between 125K, and 150K just to keep up with population growth in this country. The jobs created were in the areas of Temp jobs, part time, Transprotation, and Health care. The real back bone jobs like Manufacturing, and construction were lagging. And other indicators like GDP are dismal. This conclusion by the BLS using a volatile survey like the "Household survey" is a horrible way to arrive at any discernible conclusion other than those 66K households they asked were doing better...This is manipulation as far as I can tell, but I am a layman in economics, you know, the average guy out there, but it smells to me.
 
Could not possibly have dropped by 0.3%? Is it like the speed of light or something? Some law of physics that says the unemployment rate can't fall three tenths of one percent?

The right seems to have suffered a collective psychotic break.

The economy is growing at about 1.5%. Bernanke just applied an open ended QE, braking all the rules for a central banker for decades if not forever due to no forseeable strong job growth. So the month he does that the job market suddenly turns and Bernanke is a dope. Plus it seems that 600K of these new jobs were part time, so not sure where they came from ( perhaps a change of definition?) as U-6 was UNCHANGED, surprising when the headline number goes down.

Only a moron or a partisan hack would believe that the economy created 850K new jobs last month.
 
The idea as you put it is clear. If you read the BLS press release on this subject which breaks down the different sectors, here: Employment Situation News Release You can see that there were 114K jobs created in Sept. Now, all experts say that you need between 125K, and 150K just to keep up with population growth in this country. The jobs created were in the areas of Temp jobs, part time, Transprotation, and Health care. The real back bone jobs like Manufacturing, and construction were lagging. And other indicators like GDP are dismal. This conclusion by the BLS using a volatile survey like the "Household survey" is a horrible way to arrive at any discernible conclusion other than those 66K households they asked were doing better...This is manipulation as far as I can tell, but I am a layman in economics, you know, the average guy out there, but it smells to me.
And where does it say that people who are no longer eligible to receive UI are dropped from the rolls of the unemployed? I am not finding that part.

I did find this at the link you posted:
"Is the count of unemployed persons limited to just those people receiving unemployment insurance benefits?
No; the estimate of unemployment is based on a monthly sample survey of households.All persons who are without jobs and are actively seeking and available to work are included among the unemployed. (People on temporary layoff are included even if they do not actively seek work.) There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly survey."​

Now, to me, that seems to directly contradict what you said here
...dropping off unemployed people from the roles because their government subsidy ended, so they don't count...

I does not, imho, say that the BLS drop people from the rolls because their government subsidy ended. Ymmv I s'pose.

Are you sure you got the impression that the BLS drop people from the rolls because their government subsidy ended from that page you linked to and not from somewhere else?

I have found where the BLS give us their version of the criteria they use for deciding who is and who is not actively seeking a job. I can post it again if you like.
I can go ahead and tell you that they don't mention anywhere that running out of UI benefits means that you're removed from the rolls of people actively seeking a job.

Where did you get your version of the criteria the BLS use for deciding who is and who is not actively seeking a job--the set of criteria which include receiving UI benefits? I really don't think it came from BLS.
 
And where does it say that people who are no longer eligible to receive UI are dropped from the rolls of the unemployed? I am not finding that part.

I did find this at the link you posted:
"Is the count of unemployed persons limited to just those people receiving unemployment insurance benefits?
No; the estimate of unemployment is based on a monthly sample survey of households.All persons who are without jobs and are actively seeking and available to work are included among the unemployed. (People on temporary layoff are included even if they do not actively seek work.) There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly survey."​

Now, to me, that seems to directly contradict what you said here


I does not, imho, say that the BLS drop people from the rolls because their government subsidy ended. Ymmv I s'pose.

Are you sure you got the impression that the BLS drop people from the rolls because their government subsidy ended from that page you linked to and not from somewhere else?

I have found where the BLS give us their version of the criteria they use for deciding who is and who is not actively seeking a job. I can post it again if you like.
I can go ahead and tell you that they don't mention anywhere that running out of UI benefits means that you're removed from the rolls of people actively seeking a job.

Where did you get your version of the criteria the BLS use for deciding who is and who is not actively seeking a job--the set of criteria which include receiving UI benefits? I really don't think it came from BLS.

I am sure you would agree that one way for the government to determine whether or not a person is "actively seeking a job" is in receiving UI benefits, since that is a criteria for receiving UI. I may be wrong about that. But, a key determining factor also are those people that have dropped out of the workforce all together. Do they count?
 
I have enough information to make you look foolish and if that isn't class so be it. I have posted the bls.gov charts that you have ignored. I have even explained the so called deficit chart to you but apparently you lack the ability to comprehend how wrong you are. It really is amazing how history doesn't seem to include the last four years in your world.

I have admitted when wrong, you have yet to prove me wrong because you don't seem to understand the data posted. Get some help and then get back to me explaining where I am wrong.

These things aren't your friend...

Facts
History
Trends

You only make yourself look foolish when you constantly argue static numbers to pump economic fear and then ignore Facts, History and Trends:


fredgraphU6.jpg


That's the vaunted U6 history from 1994 to the present. That's all the unemployed, all the discouraged workers and underemployed workers combined. Your history shows you are ignorant of the fact that all unemployment statistics are trending better. ALL OF THEM.

History shows your boy destroyed the economy and your boy made this unemployment mess. History also shows that the next guy is cleaning up your boy's mess and that it is getting better much to your dismay. We can keep going round and round all you want. You keep posting static numbers while stating false comparatives and I'll keep posting graphs that show you do nothing but make ignorant and blatantly disengenuous posts.

The only sad thing about it all is watching you root for ecoomic destruction for the country just so you can make an excuse to have a republican in office. Fortunately, Facts, History and Trends rebuke your uber-partisan nonsense and proves that your claims of the economic sky is falling bull**** is merely lies.
 
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The idea as you put it is clear. If you read the BLS press release on this subject which breaks down the different sectors, here: Employment Situation News Release You can see that there were 114K jobs created in Sept. Now, all experts say that you need between 125K, and 150K just to keep up with population growth in this country. The jobs created were in the areas of Temp jobs, part time, Transprotation, and Health care. The real back bone jobs like Manufacturing, and construction were lagging. And other indicators like GDP are dismal. This conclusion by the BLS using a volatile survey like the "Household survey" is a horrible way to arrive at any discernible conclusion other than those 66K households they asked were doing better...This is manipulation as far as I can tell, but I am a layman in economics, you know, the average guy out there, but it smells to me.

Did you read the following at the bottom of your link?:


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from
+141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to
+142,000.​

So an additional 86,000 jobs were found in July and August for a total of 200,000 jobs.
 
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