your #5 rather undermines the validity of "forecasting"
Forecasting is not anything close to 100% accurate, no matter the field. Forecasting is a probabilistic exercise. There is always the risk of error.
With respect to the IMF's latest outlook, although the IMF expects the U.S. economy, among most others, to grow in 2010 and 2011, its confidence in the projection is lower than normal ("elevated" uncertainty). However, if one looks back at the preceding WEO (October 2009), both the IMF's growth expectations and its confidence in the projections have increased.
but an economy is a whole lot more than just negative gdp figures
GDP is just the broadest overall measure. If one is trying to gain a strong insight into the economy, one needs to look at multiple indicators and get into the details.
if you look at housing, public debt, consumer confidence, foreign investment, unemployment, sacramento and albany and lansing, all the new taxes in health care and cap and trade and VAT...
There is no dispute that various sectors of the economy are in a differing state. Housing is stabilizing but remains weak (some markets have experienced growth in recent months). The commercial sector may decline further. Rising public debt, still excessive mortgage debt relative to the previous historic peak, and continued high household debt remain problematic. The unemployment rate is likely to remain high for some time to come, especially as there is a larger structural component this time around. U.S. competitiveness remains an issue in certain industries/economic sectors. The policy front contains some significant uncertainties e.g., whether the U.S. will, in fact, embark on a credible fiscal consolidation program.
the exclusives, the elites, the egghead economists are gonna forever mumble their mumbo jumbo's, they're eternally gonna expatiate outta both sides of their effluence, qualifying every claim with butt covering caveats, obscuring every observation with necromancical formulae...
Caveats are a part of any credible forecasting exercise. Noting the existence of risks and delineating the major ones, is a part of any credible effort and should be fully disclosed.
if one looks at our landscape and sees reason for optimism, good
The general consensus among economists that moderate economic growth is likely in 2010 and 2011 is not an expression of unreasonable optimism. In addition, it does not, in any way, preclude recognition of some substantial medium- and long-term risks.
Four such risks (among others) include:
1) Implications of continuing U.S. dependence on oil in the context that little has been done to address the issue despite twin oil shocks in the 1970s, the oil price spike of 2008, shifting geopolitical trends e.g., China is now a larger buyer of Saudi oil than the U.S. giving Saudi Arabia greater leverage vis-a-vis the U.S. than in the past, etc. The balance of power continues to evolve, too.
2) U.S. fiscal imbalances driven largely by its mandatory spending programs, increasing share of budget deficits that is structural in nature, etc. Juxtaposed against that backdrop is the rising number of alternative investment options e.g., those associated with rapidly growing economies that could lead to increased global competition for capital flows and disadvantage the states that are unwilling or unable to tackle their debt issues, among other challenges.
3) Continued "excess cost problem" associated with U.S. health care. The problem is related largely to industry structure/practices/productivity challenges, etc. Against the backdrop of demographic change, the system's deep-seated flaws will exacerbate an already bad problem and, in the absence of reform, will dramatically increase the nation's fiscal burdens and undermine its economic competitiveness.
4) Strategic issues related to a multi-polar world in which the relative economic and military power of the U.S. will be less than it was during the 20the century. Growing possibility that disparities in educational attainment could lead to some other state's gaining a qualitative edge in at least some key technologies be it space-related, alternative energy (a huge focus for China in graduate programs and scientific research), military technologies, etc.
Citing such risks, among others, does not mean that one cannot expect moderate economic growth for 2010 and 2011. Some even have rosier ideas. At the same time, it also does not require one to expect the worst.
Present and future policy decisions, the overall state of the U.S. economy, geopolitical developments, etc., will shape that course. Right now, even as fundamental health/mandatory spending reform is politically difficult for the U.S., addressing those challenges is not insurmountable. At the same time, even as, let's say, a U.S. sovereign debt crisis is not a certainty, neither is the idea that such an outcome is unthinkable. Such crises have impacted developed and developing nations. There is no special reason that the U.S. would be immune from such a crisis or default.
:lol: