Trump's Jan. 2024 Electoral Map

PoliSciPulse · Mar 4, 2024

multivita-man said:
Any polling at this point isn't really predictive; it only shows what's in the rearview mirror up until now. We won't get predictive validity until the closing weeks of the campaign.

I'm sure it's out there but haven't seen it. We'll probably get significantly more important data tomorrow. Again, though, it will only tell us the here and now, which is still valuable in terms of assessing candidate strength, I suppose.

Specifically for Michigan, the question would be whether the people who voted uncommitted were going to vote for Biden.

multivita-man · Mar 4, 2024

PoliSciPulse said:
Specifically for Michigan, the question would be whether the people who voted uncommitted were going to vote for Biden.

I think that's an example of something that could change later. The number of uncommitted is the problem for Biden, I think. Those who voted for him and who will vote for him are probably pretty solid supporters, but he's going to need first-time voters, young voters, and voters who may have voted for the first time or the first time in a while in 2020.

PoliSciPulse · Mar 4, 2024

If you'd also say that the people who said they voted for Haley and wouldn't vote for Trump can also change, then I'm in 100% agreement. Just would be interested in capturing the mood of the moment is all.

In 2020, Biden received the vote of 64% of first-time voters, and 65% of voters aged 18-24. That 65% actually beat Obama in 2012 by five points according to exit polling!
Other exit polls showed:
• Voters aged 18-29: 59%
• Voters aged 25-29: 54%
• Voters aged 30-39: 51%
• Voters aged 30-40: 55%
• Voters aged 40-49: 54% (beat 2012 Obama by SIX points!)

IF the election was held today, I don't think he gets anywhere close those numbers. But as we get closer to election day, his totals will start to approach these numbers. Where his "ceiling" is is hard to calculate. And of course, there's the danger of peaking too early like Hillary did and coming down so fast that she falls behind her opponent. Trump's electoral votes right now are looking very 2016 Hillary for this point in the election cycle.

multivita-man · Mar 17, 2024

Here's my map based on current polling data. Should be noted that Wisconsin hasn't been polled in over 2 weeks so Biden could be tied there. But he's in major trouble in the other swing states, most notably in Nevada, which is a state that has been solidly blue in presidential elections. Biden is getting hammered there, as he is in Arizona for the same reason: cost of living. PA is also going to be very difficult for Biden, and again, it's living conditions. Foreclosures are soaring in PA.

PoliSciPulse · Mar 17, 2024

multivita-man said:
Here's my map based on current polling data. Should be noted that Wisconsin hasn't been polled in over 2 weeks so Biden could be tied there. But he's in major trouble in the other swing states, most notably in Nevada, which is a state that has been solidly blue in presidential elections. Biden is getting hammered there, as he is in Arizona for the same reason: cost of living. PA is also going to be very difficult for Biden, and again, it's living conditions. Foreclosures are soaring in PA.

View attachment 67499026

I noticed a trend with Wisconsin and Michigan, too: for the last two months, they start the month being in double digits. By the end of the month, they're either still in Trump's hands but not by much or even at a toss up level (going by individual polls, not a rolling average). If you look at my February thread, you can see that Michigan ended the month as a pure toss-up state. Any idea what would cause him to -start- the month so far ahead of Biden and end so close to Biden, assuming for a moment that it's not because of the quality of polling?

multivita-man · Mar 17, 2024

PoliSciPulse said:
I noticed a trend with Wisconsin and Michigan, too: for the last two months, they start the month being in double digits. By the end of the month, they're either still in Trump's hands but not by much or even at a toss up level (going by individual polls, not a rolling average). If you look at my February thread, you can see that Michigan ended the month as a pure toss-up state. Any idea what would cause him to -start- the month so far ahead of Biden and end so close to Biden, assuming for a moment that it's not because of the quality of polling?

I haven't seen Michigan anywhere near toss-up territory; it's been solidly advantage-Trump for a while. Wisconsin was closer at one point and, as I said earlier, there hasn't been polling in a few weeks, so it might have shifted some.

PoliSciPulse · Mar 17, 2024

Michigan was toss-up territory in a poll at the end of February. Again, I'm going by individual polls since I believe they are the best indicator of how people will vote -on that day-. But it wavers: Trump started Jan. on Feb. with a poll that shows him winning by double digits. At the end of the month, he will be closer.

For example,, on February 25th, in a poll conducted by North Star Opinion Research and sponsored by the Republican organization League of American voters, Michigan showed at tie, which is the first such toss-up result in polling: (43%-43%)

News — League of American Workers

www.amworkers.com

At the beginning of the month, on February 12th, in a poll conducted by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research and sponsored by Fox News, Trump is up +5 when Kennedy is included, and +2 when he's not:

Fox News Poll: Biden and Trump in close race in Michigan

The incumbent and former president are locked in a close battle in the key swing state that both have won in recent elections.

www.foxnews.com

Wisconsin has been doing the same thing: The beginning of the month starts with polls that say he wins by double digits, but at the end of the month, polls are showing him near +5-ish or lower.

A Morning Consult Poll sponsored by Bloomberg in February 18th showed Trump leading +6 when Kennedy was included, +4 when he was not:

2024 Swing-State Survey: Key Issues, Ballot Performance | February 2024

Voters in swing states weigh in on age, electability and key electorial issues

pro.morningconsult.com

(Partial Paywall, sorry)

But the poll closer to the end of the month on February 24th, conducted by Emerson College and conducted by the Hill and Nexstar showed Trump leading +4 when Kennedy was included, +3 when he was not:

Wisconsin 2024 Poll: Trump 45%, Biden 42% - Emerson Polling

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Baldwin Leads Potential GOP Opponent Hovde, 46% to 39% A new Emerson…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

So my question still remains: Why would Michigan and Wisconsin both display that pattern of behavior in the polls? What is going on there that I don't know about? Why are the numbers in flux? Etc.?

Note that I am not an expert at reading polls, but I am an expert at reporting what they say

(I can show you what I noticed in January if that will help)

multivita-man · Mar 17, 2024

PoliSciPulse said:
So my question still remains: Why would Michigan and Wisconsin both display that pattern of behavior in the polls? What is going on there that I don't know about? Why are the numbers in flux? Etc.?

Some of it is news/information-cycle. People pay attention for a while, then they don't. Could also be just randomness of the polls

mrjurrs · Mar 18, 2024

ForrestBee said:
The best the Democrats can do is bullcrap

Do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?