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The Trump vs. Biden electoral map as of February, 2024

When last we left our intrepid heroes and villains, the Trump electoral map showed former President Trump R-FL) with 294 electoral votes and current President Biden (D-DE) with 207 electoral votes and 37 electoral votes outstanding..





At-a-Glance: If the election was held at the end of February 2024, Trump would still win, 279-217, with 42 electoral votes outstanding.





Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/BDdj1





New Polled States:


  • Maryland comes online with Biden leading +17. When Kennedy is not included, he leads +21. Biden leads +15 in Maryland on 2/13/2024, +23 if Kennedy is not included.




In-depth analysis:


  • Trump switches Pennsylvania back to his column with a +8 lead on 2/8/2024, and leads +5 on 2/16/2024 (+2 If Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, Trump led +9, +6 if Kennedy was not included.
  • On 2/27/2024, Biden switched Pennsylvania back to his column with a +1 lead on 2/27/2024 courtesy of a poll conducted by Axis Research and sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance (which appears to be nonpartisan).
  • Trump switches Maine’s state electoral votes (2) to his side with a +6 lead on 2/14/2024.
  • Michigan and Wisconsin are showing a trend that shows them being closer to +10 in the beginning of the month, and closer to even by the end of the month.
  • Michigan was even on 2/25/2024 according to a League of American Workers Poll. League of American Workers is identified by 538 as a Republican organization.




Other Notes:


  • Trump’s lead in Arizona weakens to +4 as of 2/1/2024, then strengthens to +8 on 2/18/2024 (+9 when Kennedy is included). Trump’s lead is back to +6 on 2/19/2024, +3 if Kennedy isn’t included. Trump leads +7 in Arizona on 2/26/2024.
  • Trump leads +9 in Texas as of 2/3/2024, and +7 as of 2/8/2024, and on 2/12/2024. Also on 2/12/2024, if Kennedy is included, he leads +9. On 2/26/2024, he led +4 and that number is the exact same if you include Kennedy.
  • Trump leads +7 in North Carolina as of 2/4/2014. Trump leads +3 in North Carolina as of 2/12/2024. In this case, I took the poll by the East Carolina University Center for Polling Research over Fox News because it had more registered voters polled over a shorter period of time. Trump leads +9 in North Carolina (+2 when Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, he led +10, +9 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +20 in Massachusetts as of 2/6/2024
  • Trump leads +18 in South Carolina as of 2/8/2024, +15 on 2/8/2024, and +17 (which becomes +19 when Kennedy is not included) on 2/11/2024, Trump leads by +14 in South Carolina as of 2/16/2024.
  • Trump leads +5 in Michigan as of 2/12/2024, and +2 on 2/12/2024 if Kennedy is not included. And a Morning Consult poll in Michigan as of 2/18/2024 showed Trump leading +1, +2 if Kennedy is not included. I chose this poll over the EPIC-MRA poll released that same day because, though it showed likely voters v. Registered voters, it did not include a poll that had the other candidates. On 2/22/2024, Trump led +10. On 2/24/2024, Trump led +4 in an Emerson poll, +2 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +23 in California as of 2/13/2024, and again on 2/18/2024, but only +18 if Kennedy is included. He led +12 on 2/26/2024, but +18 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/27/2024, Biden led by +19, +21 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +9 in Iowa as of 2/13/2024, and +15 as of 2/28/2024.
  • Biden leads in ME-1 (1 electoral vote) by +8 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads in ME-2 (1 electoral vote) by +20 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +10 in New York, +12 if Kennedy isn’t included as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +16 in Washington State as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads by +22 in Montana as of 2/15/2024.
  • Trump leads by +9 in Georgia as of 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included, and +7 in Georgia, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads by +7 in Nevada on 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included. He leads +10 on 2/19/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +6 in Wisconsin on 2/18/2024, +4 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/23/2024, he led +2. On 2/24/2024, he led by +4, +3 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads in Virginia, +4, as of 2/19/2024.
  • Biden leads in Minnesota, +4, as of 2/28/2024.
 
Click to expand...
If it were to end today, this would probably be the result in a Biden-Trump head-to-head with no major third-party disruption. He is within the margin of error in Wisconsin, but he's in serious trouble in the other now-red swing states.

2024map 3 9 24.png
 
It's November that matters
 
2020 seemed to have a weird dynamic - the Senators seemed to drag Biden kicking and screaming over the finish line, not the other way around. This is especially true in Georgia. Will that dynamic be in play again?
 
PoliSciPulse said:
2020 seemed to have a weird dynamic - the Senators seemed to drag Biden kicking and screaming over the finish line, not the other way around. This is especially true in Georgia. Will that dynamic be in play again?
Click to expand...
It might be more accurate to say that Trump Blew the Senate races by storming around, acting like Donald Trump. Example: Georgia.
 
Multiple possible combinations,


PA
MI
WI
GA
AZ
NV

If Biden wins PA-
Trump would need both MI and GA to win , or any combination of three of the other swing states.

If trump wins PA plus either MI or GA, Biden would have to win the other 4 swing states.


But I think it will end like this -
Screenshot_20240317-171119.png
 
PoliSciPulse said:
When last we left our intrepid heroes and villains, the Trump electoral map showed former President Trump R-FL) with 294 electoral votes and current President Biden (D-DE) with 207 electoral votes and 37 electoral votes outstanding..





At-a-Glance: If the election was held at the end of February 2024, Trump would still win, 279-217, with 42 electoral votes outstanding.





Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/BDdj1





New Polled States:


  • Maryland comes online with Biden leading +17. When Kennedy is not included, he leads +21. Biden leads +15 in Maryland on 2/13/2024, +23 if Kennedy is not included.




In-depth analysis:


  • Trump switches Pennsylvania back to his column with a +8 lead on 2/8/2024, and leads +5 on 2/16/2024 (+2 If Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, Trump led +9, +6 if Kennedy was not included.
  • On 2/27/2024, Biden switched Pennsylvania back to his column with a +1 lead on 2/27/2024 courtesy of a poll conducted by Axis Research and sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance (which appears to be nonpartisan).
  • Trump switches Maine’s state electoral votes (2) to his side with a +6 lead on 2/14/2024.
  • Michigan and Wisconsin are showing a trend that shows them being closer to +10 in the beginning of the month, and closer to even by the end of the month.
  • Michigan was even on 2/25/2024 according to a League of American Workers Poll. League of American Workers is identified by 538 as a Republican organization.




Other Notes:


  • Trump’s lead in Arizona weakens to +4 as of 2/1/2024, then strengthens to +8 on 2/18/2024 (+9 when Kennedy is included). Trump’s lead is back to +6 on 2/19/2024, +3 if Kennedy isn’t included. Trump leads +7 in Arizona on 2/26/2024.
  • Trump leads +9 in Texas as of 2/3/2024, and +7 as of 2/8/2024, and on 2/12/2024. Also on 2/12/2024, if Kennedy is included, he leads +9. On 2/26/2024, he led +4 and that number is the exact same if you include Kennedy.
  • Trump leads +7 in North Carolina as of 2/4/2014. Trump leads +3 in North Carolina as of 2/12/2024. In this case, I took the poll by the East Carolina University Center for Polling Research over Fox News because it had more registered voters polled over a shorter period of time. Trump leads +9 in North Carolina (+2 when Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, he led +10, +9 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +20 in Massachusetts as of 2/6/2024
  • Trump leads +18 in South Carolina as of 2/8/2024, +15 on 2/8/2024, and +17 (which becomes +19 when Kennedy is not included) on 2/11/2024, Trump leads by +14 in South Carolina as of 2/16/2024.
  • Trump leads +5 in Michigan as of 2/12/2024, and +2 on 2/12/2024 if Kennedy is not included. And a Morning Consult poll in Michigan as of 2/18/2024 showed Trump leading +1, +2 if Kennedy is not included. I chose this poll over the EPIC-MRA poll released that same day because, though it showed likely voters v. Registered voters, it did not include a poll that had the other candidates. On 2/22/2024, Trump led +10. On 2/24/2024, Trump led +4 in an Emerson poll, +2 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +23 in California as of 2/13/2024, and again on 2/18/2024, but only +18 if Kennedy is included. He led +12 on 2/26/2024, but +18 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/27/2024, Biden led by +19, +21 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +9 in Iowa as of 2/13/2024, and +15 as of 2/28/2024.
  • Biden leads in ME-1 (1 electoral vote) by +8 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads in ME-2 (1 electoral vote) by +20 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +10 in New York, +12 if Kennedy isn’t included as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +16 in Washington State as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads by +22 in Montana as of 2/15/2024.
  • Trump leads by +9 in Georgia as of 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included, and +7 in Georgia, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads by +7 in Nevada on 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included. He leads +10 on 2/19/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +6 in Wisconsin on 2/18/2024, +4 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/23/2024, he led +2. On 2/24/2024, he led by +4, +3 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads in Virginia, +4, as of 2/19/2024.
  • Biden leads in Minnesota, +4, as of 2/28/2024.
Click to expand...
No, 279 votes will not win the Presidency. It would be returned to the House where a total of 50 votes would determine the winner.

Constitutionally baked in white supremacy.
 
…Not if Trump has the 279 votes? You need 270 votes to win. I am confused.
 
soap box said:
Multiple possible combinations,


PA
MI
WI
GA
AZ
NV

If Biden wins PA-
Trump would need both MI and GA to win , or any combination of three of the other swing states.

If trump wins PA plus either MI or GA, Biden would have to win the other 4 swing states.


But I think it will end like this -
View attachment 67499808
Click to expand...
That is the nightmare combination that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans want. Republicans because it would essentially make them forever linked to Trump (Even more so than now), and Democrats because they'd lose. Republicans would lose at the polls at the midterms en masse in swing districts that leaned Democratic and they'd essentially have to clear House/Senate if they ever hope to get the majority back.
 
We the moronic, led by the corrupted, are a nation whose end is deserved.

What happened last time is that a horrendous end result of a generations worth of poverty and despair ended in cries of, "Eat the Rich!". Where in the wealthy decided the mob actually meant it and backed off in this nation and we got FDR. Other places got Hitler, Mussolini and Franco. Yet others got Stalin and Tito.

Perhaps we won't be that lucky this time about and we'll get a Hitler.

It is all avoidable, but we're a bit to dumb to know that it is possible to learn from our history and not repeat it.
 
PoliSciPulse said:
When last we left our intrepid heroes and villains, the Trump electoral map showed former President Trump R-FL) with 294 electoral votes and current President Biden (D-DE) with 207 electoral votes and 37 electoral votes outstanding..





At-a-Glance: If the election was held at the end of February 2024, Trump would still win, 279-217, with 42 electoral votes outstanding.





Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/BDdj1





New Polled States:


  • Maryland comes online with Biden leading +17. When Kennedy is not included, he leads +21. Biden leads +15 in Maryland on 2/13/2024, +23 if Kennedy is not included.




In-depth analysis:


  • Trump switches Pennsylvania back to his column with a +8 lead on 2/8/2024, and leads +5 on 2/16/2024 (+2 If Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, Trump led +9, +6 if Kennedy was not included.
  • On 2/27/2024, Biden switched Pennsylvania back to his column with a +1 lead on 2/27/2024 courtesy of a poll conducted by Axis Research and sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance (which appears to be nonpartisan).
  • Trump switches Maine’s state electoral votes (2) to his side with a +6 lead on 2/14/2024.
  • Michigan and Wisconsin are showing a trend that shows them being closer to +10 in the beginning of the month, and closer to even by the end of the month.
  • Michigan was even on 2/25/2024 according to a League of American Workers Poll. League of American Workers is identified by 538 as a Republican organization.




Other Notes:


  • Trump’s lead in Arizona weakens to +4 as of 2/1/2024, then strengthens to +8 on 2/18/2024 (+9 when Kennedy is included). Trump’s lead is back to +6 on 2/19/2024, +3 if Kennedy isn’t included. Trump leads +7 in Arizona on 2/26/2024.
  • Trump leads +9 in Texas as of 2/3/2024, and +7 as of 2/8/2024, and on 2/12/2024. Also on 2/12/2024, if Kennedy is included, he leads +9. On 2/26/2024, he led +4 and that number is the exact same if you include Kennedy.
  • Trump leads +7 in North Carolina as of 2/4/2014. Trump leads +3 in North Carolina as of 2/12/2024. In this case, I took the poll by the East Carolina University Center for Polling Research over Fox News because it had more registered voters polled over a shorter period of time. Trump leads +9 in North Carolina (+2 when Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, he led +10, +9 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +20 in Massachusetts as of 2/6/2024
  • Trump leads +18 in South Carolina as of 2/8/2024, +15 on 2/8/2024, and +17 (which becomes +19 when Kennedy is not included) on 2/11/2024, Trump leads by +14 in South Carolina as of 2/16/2024.
  • Trump leads +5 in Michigan as of 2/12/2024, and +2 on 2/12/2024 if Kennedy is not included. And a Morning Consult poll in Michigan as of 2/18/2024 showed Trump leading +1, +2 if Kennedy is not included. I chose this poll over the EPIC-MRA poll released that same day because, though it showed likely voters v. Registered voters, it did not include a poll that had the other candidates. On 2/22/2024, Trump led +10. On 2/24/2024, Trump led +4 in an Emerson poll, +2 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads +23 in California as of 2/13/2024, and again on 2/18/2024, but only +18 if Kennedy is included. He led +12 on 2/26/2024, but +18 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/27/2024, Biden led by +19, +21 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +9 in Iowa as of 2/13/2024, and +15 as of 2/28/2024.
  • Biden leads in ME-1 (1 electoral vote) by +8 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads in ME-2 (1 electoral vote) by +20 as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +10 in New York, +12 if Kennedy isn’t included as of 2/14/2024.
  • Biden leads by +16 in Washington State as of 2/14/2024.
  • Trump leads by +22 in Montana as of 2/15/2024.
  • Trump leads by +9 in Georgia as of 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included, and +7 in Georgia, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads by +7 in Nevada on 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included. He leads +10 on 2/19/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
  • Trump leads +6 in Wisconsin on 2/18/2024, +4 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/23/2024, he led +2. On 2/24/2024, he led by +4, +3 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Biden leads in Virginia, +4, as of 2/19/2024.
  • Biden leads in Minnesota, +4, as of 2/28/2024.
Click to expand...
I did something different. Any state in which one or the other candidate was leading by 5 points or more, I gave them that state. Any state where the lead was less than 5 points, I left those states as tossups. Currently there are only 4 states where Biden or Trump doesn’t have at least a 5-point lead. They’re Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Which would give Trump a 262-226 electoral college advantage as of 21 Mar 2024.

www.270towin.com

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com www.270towin.com
 
Perotista said:
I did something different. Any state in which one or the other candidate was leading by 5 points or more, I gave them that state. Any state where the lead was less than 5 points, I left those states as tossups. Currently there are only 4 states where Biden or Trump doesn’t have at least a 5-point lead. They’re Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Which would give Trump a 262-226 electoral college advantage as of 21 Mar 2024.

www.270towin.com

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com www.270towin.com
Click to expand...
Are there any states besides the usual (Alaska, Hawaii, etc. that didn't have a polling?

By the way, I love that others have made maps :)
 
These polls are not worth much today. What will they look like in June when Trump gets sentenced to prison?
 
dandolo2k said:
It is US God. And of cause he is devoted Republican. And those who profess and support the proxy-wars will burn forever in hell.
Click to expand...

What about those that conduct those wars themselves?
 
dandolo2k said:
Russia has made everything possible to avoid such wars. But the west stubbornly drags it into the battle .
Click to expand...

It's like saying Germany made everything possible to avoid WW2 but others made it do it.
 
Slavister said:
It's like saying Germany made everything possible to avoid WW2 but others made it do it.
Click to expand...
Not to assert that “everything” was done by Germany to avoid the War , but indeed England and US made significant diplomatic efforts to push Germany against Soviet Union . The idea was that dictatorships would eliminate each other. This is where you hit the target right . Now Ukraine is used instead of Germany with the same goal .
 
dandolo2k said:
Not to assert that “everything” was done by Germany to avoid the War , but indeed England and US made significant diplomatic efforts to push Germany against Soviet Union . The idea was that dictatorships would eliminate each other. This is where you hit the target right . Now Ukraine is used instead of Germany with the same goal .
Click to expand...

You do know that world war 2 involved a lot more than just Germany and Soviet Union. I assume you are aware Germany conquered a lot of countries along the way first (with Stalin approving of it by the way).
 
Slavister said:
You do know that world war 2 involved a lot more than just Germany and Soviet Union. I assume you are aware Germany conquered a lot of countries along the way first (with Stalin approving of it by the way).
Click to expand...
Really ? You opened my eyes.! And Stalin approved all these conquests ? Please provide a link to the document , where Stalin approves the conquest of France .
 
dandolo2k said:
Really ? You opened my eyes.!
Click to expand...

You are welcome!

dandolo2k said:
And Stalin approved all these conquests ? Please provide a link to the document , where Stalin approves the conquest of France .
Click to expand...

I did not say I knew about all, but not only Stalin approved... he and USSR PARTICIPATED! USSR invaded Poland with Germany, along with a bunch of other countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and parts of Romania (Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina and the Hertsa region)).

Here is one link.

Fun part: "The Soviets used concern for ethnic Ukrainians and Belarusians as a pretext for their invasion of Poland."

Sound familiar?
 
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