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I posted this from a friend on another thread.
1) Immediately have the US and the EU confer with Ukraine and tell them to NOT attack the Russian troops in the Crimea. Have them immediately mobilize their forces to their borders and take up positions and prepare and make any further Russian aggression have to come through their prepared positions. Right now the Crimea is lost, and attacking them there will only invite a much larger invasion and the potential loss of all of the Ukraine.
Good points, but we have to consider that half of their military brass is of the Russian language group. They probably didn't like the revolt to begin with. I don't think we have to worry about them not wanting to see action against who they see as their brothers in arms. As for Crimea, it was Russian to begin with, having only been given to Ukraine to administer as a paperwork shuffle in 1954 by Kruschev. Not worth dying for.
2) The US should immediately start flying C-17s into Kiev (the Ukraine Capitol) loaded with advisors, provisions, trainers, and a a security force for those people. We cannot get enough people there to stop Putin at this point, but we can show him that the price for taking the Ukraine has now gone up and would be too steep for him.
Bold, but we won't do that, because it will escalate the situation. It will be viewed as an hostile act. This is not Iraq, and Saddam's allowing us to slowly build up forces in Kuwait over a year or two before he is to be attacked. Every C-17 will fly within only a few miles of overwhelming Russian air power and air defense systems. Each US special forces soldier will also be in the midst of Ukranian soldiers, half of whom will be Russian speaking and most likely waiting for the orders to garrote them in their sleep. These are not Iraqis and Afghanis we are playing with here, but the sons and grandsons of men who knocked the hell out the German army in WW2 all the way to Berlin, and would have gone further had we not had the bomb. I don't think the Russians will think it too much of a price to pay if they decide whatever they decide, but I think they will just let Ukraine return to the fold on its own. Their former leader that was just released from prison is going to see Putin this coming Monday. They had a good relationship before when she was in power. I believe they will come to an understanding. Russia this far has only had to say, "Boo!" and the West jumped.
Goodness, I just had an epiphany. Putin never liked the guy they just toppled. He always got along with her, though. Could this not have been the plan all along, going back a couple of years or more, to bring out the EU just so far, and see what they would do to test their mettle, letting the rest of eastern Europe see just how unreliable NATO, the US, and EU will be in the long run compared to holding their cards fast with the Russians. Hmmm, that would make Putin one hell-ova strategist.
3) Have the NATO and European countries (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain) do the same thing (Number 2) at other critical points throughout the Ukraine.
Any such actions will be seen as an offensive act and will only escalate the situation. A country has to be able to back up such moves, especially against a nation like Russia. The US and NATO have neither the men or material to fight a large modern land war in Europe as would be the case necessary here to stop any Russian offensive. We have had a hard enough time just containing cave dwellers in Afghanistan.
4) Immediately move to make the rest of the Ukraine a part of NATO.
Okay, not sure what this would do. I suspect, that would just encourage the more prosperous and productive east Ukraine to break off into its own country. I don't think that is what Russia wants. They just want a stable Ukraine that is within their sphere of interest.
5) Hasten the Ukraine's entry into the EU.
Again, it would just lead the eastern Ukraine, which is the more Russian speaking, productive, and prosperous, to break off into its own country.
Not sure if any of this could or will be done.
Sound thoughts, all in all, but I don't think it can or will be done. EU took a gambit on trying to draw away Ukraine, and it did not work out. They will not fight a major land war in Europe over them. They will be back in bed dealing with the Russians like nothing happened within months. Most of the leaders of this revolt will slip into irrelevance and disappear once Yulia Tymoshenko comes back into the fore and makes amends with Putin on Monday.
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