As far as people go: I'm currently in Mexico and no one here is happy with this. As it is, companies already get away with some of the biggest labor abuses here. With the new investors that will come, the prediction by locals is that the government will be used as a punishing force to anyone who dares oppose oil companies. The comparisons to Nigeria aren't exactly helping. Nigeria is rife with human rights abuses, destruction of habitat and labor abuses. Most Mexicans are already predicting it will also happen here. The next elections will be very interesting to watch. It's already a given that the PRI will lose power federally. The oil producing states of Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco are already looking at serious demonstrations. People are well aware of the way in which the government has abused its power to enforce the wishes of corporations.
The violence: The Gulf of Mexico is a place of interest for most as it is currently controlled by the Gulf Cartel and Zetas. When/if Mexico succeeds in luring interests, most Atlantic Ocean states will likely see an increase in violence and even the possibility of an upsurge in kidnappings. It's already happening with the mining industry. Cartels have taken over some mines as well as kidnapped important mining figures in the states of Guanajuato, Zacatecas & San Luis Potosi.
The economy: It is a given that in Mexico, wealth does not trickle down. Governors in the state that I'm in have a history of 1) Using violence/kidnappings to establish their position 2) Steal outrageous sums of money/benefits/licenses from coffers and 3) leave the state. So people are more than convinced that once oil companies are allowed to invest in Mexican oil fields, governors will charge a "fee" for them to operate, siphon the money from whatever levy/taxes are paid by oil companies and then leave. Essentially, for most this means that corruption in the state will actually grow.
My opinion: The only people who seem to be celebrating are those who are those outside of Mexico. Few are actually aware the level of corruption that exists within the country and future investors should be ready to pay out a lot of cash to 1) local governors, 2) cartels and 3) federal employees before they even think about investing here. They will also have to think twice about the violence that will follow their investment. Mexico is not ready for companies to invest in it - not by a long shot.
Interesting, thanks for this.
But one of the solutions is obvious to me, Mexico is going to have to legalize drugs and once that is done, the Mexican people must start electing politicians that listen to them. And if they don't then have mass strikes/shutdowns to force them to do as they say. Without the ultra-violent drug cartels, I would guess that peaceful protests will be far easier to carry out.
The cartels are powered mostly by illegal drug money. The governors are corrupted by the cartels (among others). End the flow of drug money and you severely weaken both and the amount of violence will, IMO, undoubtedly plummet.
Will legalizing drugs in Mexico be easy? Nope.
But if they ever want the ridiculously powerful cartels and all the corruption/violence/murders they bring to their regions to end, they had better get it done, IMO.
Will the American government scream bloody murder if Mexico tries to do that...yup, probably. Will the cartel's murder anyone who even attempts to take away their major source of power...yup, probably.
Hey, it won't be easy. But something has to be done.
Or yes, then you maybe right in that the oil money will not flow down to most Mexicans...just mostly into the cartel's/corrupt politician's pockets.
As for Nigeria?
Yes, Nigerian's are getting screwed. But a ton of their problems are ethnic violence and Nigeria has had a civil war, military junta's and massive political instability for many decades. This was not a stable country before oil started flowing. But as small as it is, at least some money does flow down to the people.
Taking that money away will just increase the poverty - and greater poverty is not good for anything. It just invites more anger, frustration, violence, disease.
If Mexico can break the backs of the cartel's by legalizing drugs...I think that would be a very good start.