Electoral math

[David Watson]

No Republican has taken the Presidency without Ohio, it will clearly be Romney's focus over the next couple weeks. I think Florida is solid for Romney.

 

[poweRob]

Webb is Popular? In Virginia itself?

I'd honestly put Kaine, Warner, and Allen all higher than him in terms of over all popularity mostly because they're all bigger names in the state tbh.

I still say Allen would win this thing by a landslide, thru stealing votes in the Northern Virginia area, by sly advertisement tieing himelf to the drafting of RG3 through his brother, the Redskins's General Manager Bruce Allen

RG3 is awesome. Do you think that "macaca" would let George Allen tie himself to him? I think the blowback would be rather large if he tried.

 

[poweRob]

No Republican has taken the Presidency without Ohio, it will clearly be Romney's focus over the next couple weeks. I think Florida is solid for Romney.

They are both all in in Ohio... It appears Obama isn't even focusing on Florida which is odd because he was leading there until not too long ago. I think he feels that Ohio is a safer bet to put him over the top. **** the Electoral College for making this about battleground states and having them ignore the rest of the country. As some comedian recently put it, Romney and Obama are running for president of Ohio.

 

[upsideguy]

I posted the numbers, bubba. Romney is leading in Pennsylvania, and has a 52-45 Gallup lead. Those are problematic for you, 18 days out.

We can all appreciate that you want to believe what you want to believe; and you can go to those political porn sites and have your fantasies fully indulged. However, Obama has a pretty decent lead in all legitimate PA polls. PA is a pretty solid blue state, and despite the Cons best efforts with voter suppression in that state, it will be blue again.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama

 

[upsideguy]

Going by RCP the election is starting to swing in Romney's favor, electorally speaking. Florida is starting to lean pretty good for Romney, Virginia, Colorado, and NH in his favor as well. Obama winning by about 2ish in Nevada, Iowa, Ohio.

RCP has Obama winning 277 - 261 right now. The difference being Ohio.

It is true. Please note, however, that this is a bit of a lag information. RCP averages polls, including some from prior to the first debate, but most of the polls in the average are based on the post debate #1 and pre-debate #2... so, they will tend to capture the Romney bump from the first debate. Assuming debate #3 is a draw; you will not get a real sense of where things actually are until mid-week next.

 

[David Watson]

They are both all in in Ohio... It appears Obama isn't even focusing on Florida which is odd because he was leading there until not too long ago. I think he feels that Ohio is a safer bet to put him over the top. **** the Electoral College for making this about battleground states and having them ignore the rest of the country. As some comedian recently put it, Romney and Obama are running for president of Ohio.

I agree, every state should count as One Vote.

 

[poweRob]

I agree, every state should count as One Vote.

Meh... IMO, every person should count as one vote.

 

[TitusAndronicus]

I agree, every state should count as One Vote.

Meh... IMO, every person should count as one vote.

You're both wrong, but David is closest. Every corporation should count as one vote.

 

[zimmer]

Since I haven't seen anyone post a thread with electoral math yet, I thought it would be helpful to create one. At this point in the campaign cycle, we can be pretty confident what the "swing states" are going to be on Election Day. There are somewhat fewer this year than there normally are...seven by my count: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. We can quibble about whether Wisconsin or North Carolina are "swing states," but I'm not counting them even though the polls are still relatively close in those states. This is because they are fairly irrelevant to the electoral math; if Obama loses Wisconsin or Romney loses North Carolina, it will most likely be because they've already lost all the "true" swing states...thus making the electoral math a moot point anyway.

This means that Obama starts out with 247 electoral votes, to Romney's 206. Each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency outright, although if there is a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives will pick the president. Since it's controlled by Republicans, it's fair to say that Romney needs 269 electoral votes to win, whereas Obama needs 270.

So what combination of swing states lead to each candidate winning? There are surprisingly few combinations that actually matter...only four by my count. I'm going to go down the list of ways that Obama can win, since his path to victory is a little bit clearer than Romney's. But one can do the same exercise for Romney...it's just the opposite of everything below.

- Florida. If Obama wins Florida's 29 EVs, he wins the election. Period.

- Ohio +1. If Obama wins Ohio's 18 EVs, he needs to also win one of the smaller swing states. Ohio plus New Hampshire won't quite do it...but Ohio plus any of the other smaller swing states will.

- Virginia +2. If Obama wins Virginia's 13 EVs, he needs to win any two of the four smaller swing states.

- All 4 small states. If Obama fails to carry Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he can still eke out a victory by winning all four of the small swing states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire).


Romney's path to victory is essentially just the opposite: make sure that none of these scenarios happen. Which (if any) of these paths to victory do you think is Obama's most likely way to win? How likely do you think it is that Romney will deny him these paths?

Florida looks like Romney Country now.

Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida?
Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? - NYTimes.com

Polls: Romney's Fla. lead grows
Mitt Romney has opened a 5-percentage-point lead in Florida, according to a Rasmussen survey released Friday.
Polls: Romney's Fla. lead grows, but Iowa, NH, NC remain close - The Hill's Ballot Box

 

[Kandahar]

Florida looks like Romney Country now.

Yep, it's fair to say that Florida is looking pretty good for Mitt Romney right now. I'm not sure I agree with Nate Silver that Obama should concede it (if for no other reason than that it forces Romney to continue spending money defending it), but he is right that it's looking less and less like Florida will provide the decisive electoral votes. Even though Romney is only up by 2.1 points in the RCP average, Obama has easier paths to victory than to focus on Florida. If Obama does win it, it will probably be icing on the cake following a victory elsewhere, rather than the clincher.

 

[zimmer]

Yep, it's fair to say that Florida is looking pretty good for Mitt Romney right now. I'm not sure I agree with Nate Silver that Obama should concede it (if for no other reason than that it forces Romney to continue spending money defending it), but he is right that it's looking less and less like Florida will provide the decisive electoral votes. Even though Romney is only up by 2.1 points in the RCP average, Obama has easier paths to victory than to focus on Florida. If Obama does win it, it will probably be icing on the cake following a victory elsewhere, rather than the clincher.

Obama should concede it...

Do you think Obama can still win?
Next debate... Foreign affairs... is not a strong topic for Obama... actually he doesn't have strong topic except for Telepromteur.
I think it's over except for the voting... but you play the game to the end, and Romney will. He's a pro that won't let up.

 

[Kandahar]

Do you think Obama can still win?

Absolutely, in fact he's favored to win. His "Ohio +1" path to victory is looking pretty good right now. And the other two paths ("Virginia +2" and "4 small swing states") are at least feasible.

Next debate... Foreign affairs... is not a strong topic for Obama...

I don't know where you get this. The polls indicate that voters consider foreign policy to be the one area of policy that they most strongly trust Obama over Romney.

actually he doesn't have strong topic except for Telepromteur.

Yeah...typing stuff like this might make you feel good, but it doesn't do much to add to the actual analysis of the state of the election. In fact, it has the opposite effect as it clouds your ability to see the state of the race objectively.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Since I haven't seen anyone post a thread with electoral math yet, I thought it would be helpful to create one. At this point in the campaign cycle, we can be pretty confident what the "swing states" are going to be on Election Day. There are somewhat fewer this year than there normally are...seven by my count: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. We can quibble about whether Wisconsin or North Carolina are "swing states," but I'm not counting them even though the polls are still relatively close in those states. This is because they are fairly irrelevant to the electoral math; if Obama loses Wisconsin or Romney loses North Carolina, it will most likely be because they've already lost all the "true" swing states...thus making the electoral math a moot point anyway.

This means that Obama starts out with 247 electoral votes, to Romney's 206. Each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency outright, although if there is a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives will pick the president. Since it's controlled by Republicans, it's fair to say that Romney needs 269 electoral votes to win, whereas Obama needs 270.

So what combination of swing states lead to each candidate winning? There are surprisingly few combinations that actually matter...only four by my count. I'm going to go down the list of ways that Obama can win, since his path to victory is a little bit clearer than Romney's. But one can do the same exercise for Romney...it's just the opposite of everything below.

- Florida. If Obama wins Florida's 29 EVs, he wins the election. Period.

- Ohio +1. If Obama wins Ohio's 18 EVs, he needs to also win one of the smaller swing states. Ohio plus New Hampshire won't quite do it...but Ohio plus any of the other smaller swing states will.

- Virginia +2. If Obama wins Virginia's 13 EVs, he needs to win any two of the four smaller swing states.

- All 4 small states. If Obama fails to carry Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he can still eke out a victory by winning all four of the small swing states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire).


Romney's path to victory is essentially just the opposite: make sure that none of these scenarios happen. Which (if any) of these paths to victory do you think is Obama's most likely way to win? How likely do you think it is that Romney will deny him these paths?

Funny I have Obama losing California or Illinois, or at least a state considered to be a lock for Obama.

Reasons? Because Obama hysteria has died down and many voters (especially independents) who gave him a chance last time, either wont vote, vote 3rd party or will vote Romney. There are many "democrats" out there that are extremely disappointed in Obama and won't waste their time to even vote.

Also, Wisconsin is certainly going to Romney.. The Wisconsin voters elected Gov Scott Walker (Tea Party), then democrats/progressives attempted to recall him and they failed in their attempt. So if Wisconsin voters are willing to elect then retain a "no nonsense" Tea Party governor what makes anyone believe those same people will elect a progressive such as Obama? Makes no sense to me whatsoever why anyone would believe Wisconsin is up for grabs.

Also, lets not forget that there are MANY voters out there that want Obama out of office and are going to vote against him in droves - not necessarily in support of Romney, but to at least change the landscape per se....

But as I previously stated in a different thread - there is a good chance republicans will take the Senate and will certainly retain the House - so even if Obama does win he will be in handcuffs... Remember presidents don't write and pass bills - our congress does. It's Obama's job to sign the bills that come out of congress and land on his desk and all he can do is veto bills - even then the congress can circumvent his veto with 2/3rds vote.

I would love to see Obama booted, but at the same time I would be more than pleased with republicans taking the Senate (which is a good chance) and right now it looks like both will happen.

 

[AdamT]

Funny I have Obama losing California or Illinois, or at least a state considered to be a lock for Obama.

You are totally divorced from reality if you really think Romney might win CA or IL.

 

[clownboy]

You are totally divorced from reality if you really think Romney might win CA or IL.

California yes, but Illinois? Chicago is not near the whole of the state and the republicans pulled in victories there in 2010.

 

[Mr.Nick]

You are totally divorced from reality if you really think Romney might win CA or IL.

You're totally delusional if you think those states are locks.

Unlike you I don't assume - I pay attention to reality....

Obama lost the majority of his "swing vote" that got him elected in 2008 and in 2012 people are pissed off at him and that "swing vote" will be swinging to the other side or not at all.

Furthermore I'm from Chicago and I can tell you A) 90% of the counties in Illinois are republican or "red" and B) Crook County or Chicago in general has shrunk....

You think Crook County can beat out the entire state of Illinois? A couple blue counties vs 50 red counties?

Hell, Obama has lost 10% of the black vote and 70% of the independent vote.....

 

[Your Star]

Obama should concede it...

Do you think Obama can still win?
Next debate... Foreign affairs... is not a strong topic for Obama... actually he doesn't have strong topic except for Telepromteur.
I think it's over except for the voting... but you play the game to the end, and Romney will. He's a pro that won't let up.

I think foreign policy is a very strong topic for Obama, the democratic party has been slowly becoming the party of the military.

And of course Obama can win, he's the favorite IMO.

 

[Your Star]

You're totally delusional if you think those states are locks.

Unlike you I don't assume - I pay attention to reality....

Obama lost the majority of his "swing vote" that got him elected in 2008 and in 2012 people are pissed off at him and that "swing vote" will be swinging to the other side or not at all.

Furthermore I'm from Chicago and I can tell you A) 90% of the counties in Illinois are republican or "red" and B) Crook County or Chicago in general has shrunk....

You think Crook County can beat out the entire state of Illinois? A couple blue counties vs 50 red counties?

Hell, Obama has lost 10% of the black vote and 70% of the independent vote.....

California is a solid liberal state every time, just like Texas is a strong conservative state. And Obama is not losing Illinois, he's up 15 points according to Real Clear Politics.

 

[zimmer]

I think foreign policy is a very strong topic for Obama, the democratic party has been slowly becoming the party of the military.

And of course Obama can win, he's the favorite IMO.

Fast & Furious.
Libya.
Mid East breakdown.
Iran.

I don't see it.

 

[Your Star]

Fast & Furious.
Libya.
Mid East breakdown.
Iran.

I don't see it.

Ending Iraq war
Killing Bin Laden
Decimating Al-Qaeda

And I think he's dealt with Iran quite effectively, and and Arab Spring is not really something we could have stopped. And the Libya thing is bad, but not enough to shake the confidence the American people have with his foreign policy. Which is viewed very favorably.

 

[AdamT]

You're totally delusional if you think those states are locks.

They are both dead-nuts locks. Obama leads by 17 in CA and 15 in IL, and he has never not led by less than double digits.

 

[zimmer]

Ending Iraq war

Pulling out was the product of our military and years of Bush 43 work.

Killing Bin Laden

This is a non-issue. The work of intelligence, and SEALs... not Obama. Yes he said GO... but what choice did he have?

Decimating Al-Qaeda

Sorry... that hasn't happened. 4 Americans died because of them.

And the Libya thing is bad, but not enough to shake the confidence the American people have with his foreign policy.

It is an unmitigated disaster. Deaths and deceit related to what happened.

 

[Deuce]

It is an unmitigated disaster. Deaths and deceit related to what happened.

No, that's your perception of it.

 

[zimmer]

No, that's your perception of it.

Yes, four deaths, pulling out their security, and the deception that followed the deaths... equals unmitigated disaster on many fronts.

One further absurdity of Obama is his failure to use the T-word... as in terrorists. Just because you do not use the word does not mean they go away.

 

[Fiddytree]

Fast & Furious.
Libya.
Mid East breakdown.
Iran.

I don't see it.

Managed escalation and in the process of draw-down in Afghanistan
Expansion of conflict into Pakistan (drone attacks, OBL)
Libya coalition intervention (minus the recent episode)
Arab Spring moral supporter (but mostly hands-off interventionism)
Continuing to draw down conflict in Iraq (yes, it was part of W.'s time-table)

The President has had an established foreign policy, however we may view it, that will be the roadmap the next administration will use (much the same as Obama used W's foreign policy as a roadmap).