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Democrats flip House seat in Alabama

samiam5211 said:
The winner last night got over 2000 fewer votes than she did when she lost in 2022.
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Good point, but this was a special election, which is usually characterized by lower turnout than a scheduled election. That characterization of special elections is they tend to be more single issue driven.

samiam5211 said:
Yes, that is my point.

It is dumb to compare a special election to a presidential election.
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Its not dumb at all .... special elections are usually "canary in coal mine" events. You should not overplay their significance (as I pointed out above, they are more typically single issue voters), but you shouldn't underplay them either (because you can see what is motivating people more clearly in advance of the election) as history shows they are typically leading indicators. It seems that the woman's rights issues, which have turned out the vote pretty significantly in the past couple of years, must be well considered by the candidates heading into the general. If either side dismisses what they have been seeing the past few years, they will do so at their own peril.
Geoist said:
Said it before and I'll say it again: the polls are flawed. They overrepresent older demographics when voters are getting younger and younger.

But I hope our MAGA Republican friends continue to hyper-focus on polling data as if they're actual votes. Just makes beating them in elections all the sweeter.
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Election polls have two components to them. The first component is the preference poll, which is usually pretty easy to nail. The second component is the turnout model; who will actually act on their preference on a date certain. To me, its the turnout model they haven't been able to get right.
 
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Yeah this was a 30+ point flip from the last election when she lost to the former seat holder.

The fact that the GOP has not won a significant, contested special election since Roe should scare the bejeezus out of them. But they’ve made it pretty well known that self-reflection isn’t exactly their strong suit.

I strongly suspect the 2024 general elections will be the death knell of the polling industry as we know it.
 
upsideguy said:
Good point, but this was a special election, which is usually characterized by lower turnout than a scheduled election. That characterization of special elections is they tend to be more single issue driven.


Its not dumb at all .... special elections are usually "canary in coal mine" events. You should not overplay their significance (as I pointed out above, they are more typically single issue voters), but you shouldn't underplay them either (because you can see what is motivating people more clearly in advance of the election) as history shows they are typically leading indicators. It seems that the woman's rights issues, which have turned out the vote pretty significantly in the past couple of years, must be well considered by the candidates heading into the general. If either side dismisses what they have been seeing the past few years, they will do so at their own peril.
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We should be underplaying everything that looks good for Biden.

We need democrat voters to be scared to death on election day.

Overconfidence is a big part of what cost us 2016.
 
Integrityrespec said:
I'm a registered Republican. I get asked all the time why I don't vote for democrat candidates. I was accused by a friend who is a democrat of not voting for Obama because he is black. I told him what I tell everyone who asks. I disagree with many of the democrat parties basic stances on policies that mean something to me. He asked what those were and I rattled off a list. He apologized, said he didn't agree, but could see I had reasons for my vote. Duh...............
This is the entire problem with democrats, particularly the more left they are. If you don't agree with their position, you are “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic”, as per Hillary Clinton. You aren't allowed to simply have other positions based on your beliefs.
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Fair enough. So I take it you won't be voting for Trump because he is racist, sexist, homophobic xenophobic and Islamophobic correct? Moderate Biden would appreciate your vote.
 
Integrityrespec said:
I'm a registered Republican. I get asked all the time why I don't vote for democrat candidates. I was accused by a friend who is a democrat of not voting for Obama because he is black. I told him what I tell everyone who asks. I disagree with many of the democrat parties basic stances on policies that mean something to me. He asked what those were and I rattled off a list. He apologized, said he didn't agree, but could see I had reasons for my vote. Duh...............
This is the entire problem with democrats, particularly the more left they are. If you don't agree with their position, you are “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic”, as per Hillary Clinton. You aren't allowed to simply have other positions based on your beliefs.
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Your complaint would have some weight if the Republican Party didn't depend so heavily on using racism, homophobia, xenophobia, and Islamophobia to rally their base.
 
samiam5211 said:
We've got to stop getting excited over special elections where 5000 people vote and the total turnout is about 1/3 of what you are going to get during the general election.

it is no more an indicator than an individual poll of 1000 people.
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But It's Alabama a Republican stronghold!
 
samiam5211 said:
We should be underplaying everything that looks good for Biden.
We need democrat voters to be scared to death on election day.
Overconfidence is a big part of what cost us 2016.
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Political scientists will tell you that defeatism can depress turnout.
 
jpn said:
Political scientists will tell you that defeatism can depress turnout.
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Saying that we shouldn't hype up every little thing that looks good for Biden isn't defeatism.
 
samiam5211 said:
Saying that we shouldn't hype up every little thing that looks good for Biden isn't defeatism.
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Underplaying everything that looks good for Biden is, or might be viewed as such by some.
 
samiam5211 said:
No it isn't.
Defeatism is saying Biden has no shot.
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Oh hell, I'm not going to parse Webster's with you.

Instead, I'll post this: President Joe Biden spent most of his recent State of the Union address celebrating his economic record, with good reason. There is no denying the numbers: The United States currently enjoys the highest rate of economic growth among nations in the G7, the lowest inflation, and the strongest wage growth. The unemployment rate hasn’t been this low for this long in half a century. Even accounting for inflation, wages are higher today than they were before the coronavirus pandemic, and the biggest wage gains have accrued among the lowest-paid workers, resulting in a dramatic reduction in overall wage inequality. The economy is even outperforming among communities that are often excluded from boom-time gains. Biden has overseen the lowest Black unemployment rate on record and the lowest ever unemployment rate for workers with disabilities. The American economy isn’t perfect, but by any historical standard it is very, very good.
 
samiam5211 said:
We should be underplaying everything that looks good for Biden.

We need democrat voters to be scared to death on election day.

Overconfidence is a big part of what cost us 2016.
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A completely unrealistic view of the merits and demerits of your candidate is what cost you. You saw her as the most admired woman. Half the nation saw her as the most Despised.
 
coyote505 said:
A completely unrealistic view of the merits and demerits of your candidate is what cost you. You saw her as the most admired woman. Half the nation saw her as the most Despised.
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You won't find any example of me saying that Hillary was admired.

She was the worst politician to run for President in recent memory.

She was one of the most qualified people to ever run for the office, just not a very good politician. Even people who respected her, didn't like her.
 
coyote505 said:
A completely unrealistic view of the merits and demerits of your candidate is what cost you. You saw her as the most admired woman. Half the nation saw her as the most Despised.
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What cost the election for Hillary was the perfectly timed false story 2 weeks before the election. That's why she lost. I wasn't a Hillary fan at all and at that time I refused to vote. Unfortunately Trump's election was the worst thing ever for this country. There's a reason why he was voted the absolute worst president we've ever had by presidential scholars And here we are. The worst president this country has ever had is running again. What a country, eh?
 
Alabama is the epitome of a mossbacked state. This special election is the exception rather the rule.
 
jpn said:


It's worth noting that the Republican, Teddy Powell, was not some kind of wild-eyed MAGA candidate who was doomed from the start in a swing district.
He's a relatively moderate, technocratic guy.
But the Democrat, Marilyn Lands, ran exclusively on IVF and reproductive rights and just killed him.
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May it be the first of many nationwide. The only thing that will remove the GOP's lips from Donald's ass is a significant loss of power.
 
Integrityrespec said:
I'm a registered Republican. I get asked all the time why I don't vote for democrat candidates. I was accused by a friend who is a democrat of not voting for Obama because he is black. I told him what I tell everyone who asks. I disagree with many of the democrat parties basic stances on policies that mean something to me. He asked what those were and I rattled off a list. He apologized, said he didn't agree, but could see I had reasons for my vote. Duh...............
This is the entire problem with democrats, particularly the more left they are. If you don't agree with their position, you are “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic”, as per Hillary Clinton. You aren't allowed to simply have other positions based on your beliefs.
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I hear you. Except, the problem with the national election, this year (as it was in 2020 and 2016), is the Republican party is not putting forth a normal candidate, but actually someone that is a threat to American democracy. This is not a normal election, with normal stakes. People are less forgiving of someone wanting to vote for Trump to lower taxes, or inflation or whatever because that is not what he is about. If the Republicans really wanted to do those things, they would not have nominated Trump. He would have been unacceptable to the party.

You are allowed to have other positions based upon your beliefs, but all of us are less tolerant of you (the Republican party) putting forth candidates that are contrary to core American beliefs, such as continuation of democracy itself. When you put up someone like Trump as the party standard bearer, you kind of lose the moral high ground on political beliefs.

So you complain about the intolerance of Democrats, let me flip that, which is the intolerance of Republicans to look honestly at the candidate they have put forth. They want that candidate respected; normalized. But by no objective measure is Trump a normal candidate or one that actually represents core American values. He is not qualified for the job. The Republican party should have a little more self-respect (put forth serious candidates) before they expect respect from others (respect of policy differences).

I did not like George W. Bush, but I long for the good ole days of Bush vs. Gore, when the actual differences were about policy and the right approach to make America greater. We are not in that spot today.
 
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Deuce said:
How many times does this pattern have to repeat before you start to think it matters?
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I'm not going to ever acknowledge it matters.

Nothing matters except for November.
 
Integrityrespec said:
I'm a registered Republican. I get asked all the time why I don't vote for democrat candidates. I was accused by a friend who is a democrat of not voting for Obama because he is black. I told him what I tell everyone who asks. I disagree with many of the democrat parties basic stances on policies that mean something to me. He asked what those were and I rattled off a list. He apologized, said he didn't agree, but could see I had reasons for my vote. Duh...............
This is the entire problem with democrats, particularly the more left they are. If you don't agree with their position, you are “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic”, as per Hillary Clinton. You aren't allowed to simply have other positions based on your beliefs.
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What kind of a friend thinks you're a racist?
 
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