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Trump's Electoral Map, March 2024

When last we left our intrepid heroes and villains, the Trump electoral map showed former President Trump (R-FL) with 279 electoral votes and current President Biden (D-DE) with 217 electoral votes and 42 electoral votes outstanding..





At-a-Glance: Trump leads Biden in March, 284-244 with 10 electoral votes outstanding. Biden has a pathway forward, whereas before it had been close to a lockout.





Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/bnoOA








New Polled States:
  • Biden leads +31 over Trump in Vermont as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day.
  • Biden leads +5 over Trump in New Jersey, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
What’s changed:
  • As of 3/12, Pennsylvania switched to Trump. Trump leads +4 on 3/13.
  • As of 3/24, Wisconsin switched to Biden, who leads +3.
  • As of 3/31, Pennsylvania switched back to Biden, who leads +2 of 3/31, +10 if Kennedy is not included.

In-depth analysis:
  • Trump leads in Alaska as of 3/2 by +12.
  • Trump leads in Montana by +20 as of 3/2, and leads +21 when Kennedy isn’t included.
  • Trump leads in Alabama by +19 as of 3/3
  • Biden leads in Colorado by +4 as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day. He strengthened to +10 on 3/19.
  • Biden leads in Massachusetts by +25 as of 3/3., taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day.
  • Biden solidifies his position in Minnesota, leading by +8 as of 3/3.
  • Trump leads in North Carolina by +14 as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day, Trump weakened to +3 in North Carolina as of 3/14.
  • Trump leads +25 in Tennessee as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day.
  • Trump solidifies his position in Texas, leading by +9 as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day. He led +12 in Texas on 3/21, +11 ifI Kennedy was not included.
  • Trump leads +8 in Utah as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day.
  • Biden solidifies his position in Virginia, leading +6 over Trump as of 3/3, taking the likely voters over registered voters poll that day.
  • Trump leads +5 in Nevada on 3/5, +7 if Kennedy is included, and +5 again on 3/15, +3 if Kennedy is not included. I took the Emerson College poll from that day because it survey more registered voters. Trump led +4 in Nevada on 3/24, regardless of what candidates were included.
  • Trump leads +21 in Indiana on 3/5.
  • Biden solidifies his position in Pennsylvania on 3/6, leading Trump +5. However, on 3/11, the results were even. Trump led +2 if Kennedy was not included in the polling. On 3/12, he led +6, but was even if Kennedy wasn’t included. On 3/17, Trump led +3. On 3/18, Trump led +2, but was even if Kennedy was not included. On 3/24, Trump led +3 regardless of whether third-party candidates were included.
  • Trump leads +7 in Georgia on 3/7, but only +4 when Kennedy is included in the polls. Then, he weakens to +3 on 3/11, but strengthens to +7 on 3/12, and then weakens to +5 on 3/14, +4 if Kennedy is not included. On 3/16, Trump led +3. On 3/24, Trump led +3, but +1 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Trump leads +5 in North Carolina on 3/7 and 3/9,, and +6 on 3/12 — with no difference if Kennedy is not included. Trump led +4 in North Carolina on 3/17. Trump led +8 in North Carolina, +6 if no third-party candidates were included.
  • Trump leads +9 in Ohio, or +11 when Kennedy isn’t included, on 3/10. He led Biden +11 on 3/11. I took the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research poll on that date because ti was the only one that polled likely voters. HE also led Biden +11 on 3/13.
  • Trump weakened slightly in Arizona on 3/11, but still led Biden by +4. Trump led Biden +6 on 3/14, +5 if Kennedy is not included. Trump led Biden +8 on 3/15, +5 if Kennedy was not included. Trump led +4 on 3/17 when Kennedy is both included and omitted. I took the League of American Voters poll that day because they surveyed more likely voters. On 3/24, Trump led +6, the same margin if Kennedy was not included. For the last day of the month, on 3/31, Trump weakened to a +3 lead.
  • Trump led in Michigan by +3 on 3/12, but +5 if Kennedy was not included. Trump led +2 in Michigan, but +3 if Kennedy was not included. Trump led +2 on 3/17. Trump led +6 in Michigan by +8 if Kennedy was not included. I chose the SSRS poll because there were more registered voters. Trump led +2 in Michigan on 3/24, +3 if no third-party candidates were included. Trump led led +3 on 3/28, but led +4 if Kennedy was not included.
  • Trump led in Florida +6 on 3/13 and +7 on 3/16.
  • Trump led +2 in Wisconsin on 3/14, but Biden leads +1 if Kennedy is not included. Trump led +4 in Wisconsin (the same if Kennedy was included) on 3/18. Biden led +3 on 3/24, but was even if no third-party candidates were included. Biden leads by +11 in Washington on 3/21.




Other Notes:


  • A path to victory through Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona (All weak Trump states) for Biden opened on 3/13.
  • The path to victory for Biden changed to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina on 3/14.
  • The path to victory for Biden added Arizona and Georgia on 3/16.
  • The path to victory for Biden changed to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona on 3/18.
  • +11 might be Trump’s ceiling in Ohio.
  • The path to victory for Biden changed to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and/or Georgia on 3/24.
  • Biden switched Wisconsin to his column on 3/28, giving him a new pathway forward of Pennsylvania, Nevada, and/or Georgia.
  • Biden switched Pennsylvania to his column on 3/31, giving him a new pathway forward of Michigan or Georgia plus Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, or Nevada.
 
Click to expand...
Yeah, wait till Donald is in court on criminal charges. That will not play well in the news for Donald. His base is already committed to him but those in the middle will be pushed away with news of him in court as a criminal defendant.
 
Peacenik said:
Yeah, wait till Donald is in court on criminal charges. That will not play well in the news for Donald. His base is already committed to him but those in the middle will be pushed away with news of him in court as a criminal defendant.
Click to expand...
OR, they will see things for what they REALLY are. Nothing but a political witch hunt!
 
The criminal court cases are interesting, and I've heard arguments from both sides about what will happen. And interestingly enough, consecutive posts here show the contrast in viewpoints. A rarity! :)

To elaborate, the criminal court cases will either:
A) Confirm the biases of those on the fence who were suspicious of the legal charges against Trump to begin with,
B) Confirm the biases of those on the fence who believed Trump was a criminal to begin with,
or C) Do both.

I don't really think we're going to see a dramatic change in the polls either way until like September, when people have had time to process what's been going on.

What's interesting about this map is that cracks are showing around the edges. Biden has multiple pathways to victory now if he can successful exploit Trump's weakness in those states. I'm expecting Arizona to be at least a purely even swing state or maybe even tilting blue in April due to the abortion law that just came into effect.
 
Really interesting Post and analysis. Hope you keep it up all the way to the election
 
Zyphlin said:
Really interesting Post and analysis. Hope you keep it up all the way to the election
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Thank yo! I got a fan! :)

Yes, it's my tradition to do this every two years -- presidential and midterm elections. In October I go weekly, and then in November, I go daily. You'll see those polls combined into one thread because I don't want to pollute the blog section too much with my craziness :p
 
Polling update for 4/20.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2024 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
  • Biden and Trump are essentially tied in head-head national polling.
  • Trump still (probably) leads in: MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC
  • Biden still (probably) leads in PA and clearly leads in NH and MN
My current If the election were held today map:

270towinmap420.png
 
multivita-man said:
Polling update for 4/20.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2024 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
  • Biden and Trump are essentially tied in head-head national polling.
  • Trump still (probably) leads in: MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC
  • Biden still (probably) leads in PA and clearly leads in NH and MN
My current If the election were held today map:

View attachment 67505360
Click to expand...

(Letting you know up front that I'm going to mutilate, but not change, the quote I'm responding to since I'm not sure how to separate a quote when there's a graphic involved.)

If you are going by the rolling average, then this is correct:
Trump still (probably) leads in: MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC
Click to expand...
If you are going by most recent polling, as I do, then Wisconsin is for Biden in March. Interestingly, Trump is weak in all the other states you mentioned, except North Carolina (going by last poll taken). as of March.

[quote[
Biden still (probably) leads in PA and clearly leads in NH and MN
Click to expand...
If you're going by most recent polling March, Biden is -very- weak in PA.

Will be investing to see what the April map brings. March's map was the first he's had where you can actually point at states for him to focus on.
 
PoliSciPulse said:
(Letting you know up front that I'm going to mutilate, but not change, the quote I'm responding to since I'm not sure how to separate a quote when there's a graphic involved.)

If you are going by the rolling average, then this is correct:

If you are going by most recent polling, as I do, then Wisconsin is for Biden in March. Interestingly, Trump is weak in all the other states you mentioned, except North Carolina (going by last poll taken). as of March.

[quote[

If you're going by most recent polling March, Biden is -very- weak in PA.

Will be investing to see what the April map brings. March's map was the first he's had where you can actually point at states for him to focus on.
Click to expand...

Yeah Biden's 'lead' in PA, if it exists, is narrow, and I would also agree that some of the polls include data that's a month old.
 
multivita-man said:
Yeah Biden's 'lead' in PA, if it exists, is narrow, and I would also agree that some of the polls include data that's a month old.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. And also, that PA lead factors in an outing poll that shows Biden leading by +10. So if you take the +10 out of the equation, what do you get for the rolling average?
 
Biden's post SOTU bump has ended, but Trump hasn't really trended up, either. The result, a virtual national tie, which will favor Trump in the end if it holds due to his advantage in the electoral college calculus.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2024 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
Question: What effect do you think unopposed elections (mainly in states with House races but no Senate races) will have on the vote, if any effect at all?
 
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