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Thread: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

  1. #11
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by HowardBThiname View Post
    The lack of landlines is starting to be a problem, but here in the Midwest, we get alerts on our cell phones when weather is threatening and I don't see why they can't do that as well. In addition, we have huge sirens in our communities -- does California have none of those?

    TV stations should also be putting out constant alerts in threatened areas. Why are so many getting caught in these fires? That's crazy in this day and age.
    Fires whipped by the winds can spread by leaps and bounds and are completely unpredictable. Napa saw Hurricane force winds during this last fire and that spreads burning embers a mile or two in front of the flame front.

    From a report on the 2007 fires:

    Fires in southern California driven by high winds don't burn like that. Embers from fires driven by high winds can start fires up to 1.5 miles away from the "front" of the fire. The maximum distance of "1.5 miles" is the canonical wisdom; it apparently is larger in some cases. A home on Queenston Drive in Escondido burned on 22 October 2007 when an ember from "2 miles away" landed on its wood shake roof. This is a minimum distance, since the fire never burned closer than two miles to this house. (San Diego Union Tribune, 1 November 2007, NI-1)

    The 2007 Fallbrook Fire: A Fire In A Suburban Rural Landscape

    A half mile swath of open "fire break" can be jumped in no time. I know. Been there, done that in the 2007 fires. Reverse 9/11 calls work if you have a land line. But they are only a good as the information coming in. And information an hour old is worthless when a fire like Napa or the 2007 fires are in play.
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    A free lance journalist who lives in the disaster area has a good piece up on CNN about what a disaster communications have been, which is almost all due to California never bothering to have a plan in my opinion, California not doing the work...again.... so its citizens suffer:


    This is what Californians really needed during the fires (Opinion) - CNN
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by Fledermaus View Post
    Fires whipped by the winds can spread by leaps and bounds and are completely unpredictable. Napa saw Hurricane force winds during this last fire and that spreads burning embers a mile or two in front of the flame front.

    From a report on the 2007 fires:

    Fires in southern California driven by high winds don't burn like that. Embers from fires driven by high winds can start fires up to 1.5 miles away from the "front" of the fire. The maximum distance of "1.5 miles" is the canonical wisdom; it apparently is larger in some cases. A home on Queenston Drive in Escondido burned on 22 October 2007 when an ember from "2 miles away" landed on its wood shake roof. This is a minimum distance, since the fire never burned closer than two miles to this house. (San Diego Union Tribune, 1 November 2007, NI-1)

    The 2007 Fallbrook Fire: A Fire In A Suburban Rural Landscape

    A half mile swath of open "fire break" can be jumped in no time. I know. Been there, done that in the 2007 fires. Reverse 9/11 calls work if you have a land line. But they are only a good as the information coming in. And information an hour old is worthless when a fire like Napa or the 2007 fires are in play.
    The problem with that argument is that wildfires are one of those things we have been dealing with forever, and often times been dealing with far better than we have this time. Things like this are a real wrench in the theory of progress.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by DiAnna View Post
    Let's not. Wettest winter in a century; massive fuel explosion. Northwind weather events, plus idiot firebugs with matches = 5000+ structures burned, nearly 30 confirmed dead and 500 missing, and here comes Hawkeye10 opining that any of the thousands of Californians who lost their homes of their lives were the fault of a state legislature that didn't pay the proper bounty to Moscow during the international poker game of "massive annihilation during natural disasters" because the Soviets were able to control the massive wind events that destroyed thousands of structures, killed hundreds of people because, hey, they are the MAN, right?

    Just forget about it. Just Californians after all. Nobody important. Who cares if they live or die. The congress and WH only care about RED states... nobody in DC gives a fat flying fuck about California, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands or anywhere else where Blue States or American Citizens who don't have the allowable votes to fight back.
    This like the failure of the dam is almost completely The State of California's fault, not the federal government, this is on Cal Fire.
    Last edited by Hawkeye10; 10-13-17 at 02:19 PM.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by PIPEWRENCH View Post
    These fires are a normal part of the natural process in that part of the country. Just like hurricanes in the gulf coast region. As more and more people build their homes in harms way more and more people are going to have harm come to them. It is sad and unfortunate. Especially for the people that do not realize they are buying a home in harms way. We unfortunately have reached a point in this country where so many people are living in harms way that we cannot afford it. I think in the future we are going to have to get smarter on how and where we build our homes and cities. Otherwise things will get worse.
    True in that the experts have long warned that so many people living in wilderness areas makes dealing with fire more complicated, they have advised against it over and over, but the trend in recent decades in California has been to do just that because people want what they want. But you know we all knew that, as did the State of California, which makes the fact that they never came up with workable plans to warn people and do evacuations negligence.

    The State needs to be held accountable.

    The citizens must demand better.
    Last edited by Hawkeye10; 10-13-17 at 02:21 PM.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

  6. #16
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    The problem with that argument is that wildfires are one of those things we have been dealing with forever, and often times been dealing with far better than we have this time. Things like this are a real wrench in the theory of progress.
    There is progress, but there also is nature.

    And nature trumps progress quite often.

    A wildfire does not care what progress has occurred. A wildfire will go wherever it damn well wants. And it will do it at a speed that few comprehend. The 2007 fires saw flame fronts traveling over 16 miles an hour. Embers lighting off fires two miles downwind. Hurricane force winds (some in the 90-100 mph range). Fire "tornadoes" and other anomalies. Fire + wind = destruction.

    Air drops at those wind speeds are impossible. At lower wind speeds (50-70) the water/retardant is often ineffective or dropped where the fire has already passed. "Fire breaks" are ineffective. Back burning unadvised.

    If you have a home in California you are at risk.
    “All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others.”
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by Fledermaus View Post
    There is progress, but there also is nature.

    And nature trumps progress quite often.

    A wildfire does not care what progress has occurred. A wildfire will go wherever it damn well wants. And it will do it at a speed that few comprehend. The 2007 fires saw flame fronts traveling over 16 miles an hour. Embers lighting off fires two miles downwind. Hurricane force winds (some in the 90-100 mph range). Fire "tornadoes" and other anomalies. Fire + wind = destruction.

    Air drops at those wind speeds are impossible. At lower wind speeds (50-70) the water/retardant is often ineffective or dropped where the fire has already passed. "Fire breaks" are ineffective. Back burning unadvised.

    If you have a home in California you are at risk.
    You and me know that, surely fire experts in California know that too, so why did they for so long act like this was no big deal, why were they not out warning people at the front end " Hey Ya'll, this could be a problem, if you live in these counties have your bags packed, pay close attention to the news, and be ready to flee, these fires can be deadly"?

    They said almost nothing, they did not want to scare people, they say now they thought that their fire fighters would be able to handle it. Have you listened to some of these first responders....they were getting their asses kicked on these fires from the get go, they knew it, they feel bad about it, surely their bosses knew.

    And said nothing.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    PG&E Corp. is about to cap its worst week in nine years on speculation that downed power lines may have played a part in deadly wildfires racing across Napa Valley.
    The shares resumed their slide on Friday, slumping as much as 13 percent, as Evercore ISI said the market's pricing in "significant financial exposure" to the wildfires.
    PG&E's stock had barely budged earlier this week when the wildfires began spreading, consuming people's homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Then local media began pointing to potential connections between the fires and PG&E power lines knocked down by strong winds. By Thursday, California fire officials had confirmed they're investigating the role of downed power lines, and utility regulators said they're looking at PG&E's maintenance activities in the area.
    PG&E is having worst week in nine years as wildfires rage - SFGate

    This would be if true yet more negligence on the part of the State of California...it has long been known that PG&E does not invest in the upkeep of the system as they need to, the State knows, and the state has an obligation to the citizens to take action when its regulated unities dont correctly manage their systems.....but see California politicians have other more sexy things on their minds, like "green energy", they have long told PG&E to prioritize the sexy stuff.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

  9. #19
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    Worst fires ever, dead people, people rushing out of the house in the middle of the night with nothing just steps in front of the fire because they were not warned, in fact there no longer exists a good warning system now that almost no one has land lines. Remember Oroville Dam where the spillway broke to potentially catastrophic result this year:

    Oroville Dam: Here's what the spillway looks like now

    Failure to do maintenance is state of California mismanagement, just as I claimed at the time. I also was not happy with their water level management, it was stupid to let it get to 100% before they dumped any water just because they wanted to look at a 100% full lake, the spillway had not been used in years, maybe you want to test it out??

    MAYBE?


    So horrible state of California management happens...did it happen here? Both by failing to control the fires and by failing to warn people?

    See I have this theory that California does bad work in part because like Japan before the nuke problem they still have a rep for being able to manage things, so with that and a citizenry who wants to trust them no one ever starts asking the right questions (Including so-called journalists of course), no one ever starts demanding proof that things are getting done, which is good, because they are not. California officials get away with it because citizens do not demand better.

    But too many more really bad failures like this and that reputation is gone baby.

    What does California do then I wonder.
    I spent 30 years in wildland fire management (federal agency). My experience with the fuel load from the wet winter that is now cured, the high winds (40-70mpg), and the high temp/low rh%, it was highly unlikely a wildfire could have been stopped once started.

    That said.
    - I know that the federal and State fire agencies have been educating the public for years on Firewise (Home - Firewise) principles to reduce the risk of wildfire destroying a home.
    - From what I could see from news photos/vids/fire web sites in many areas the fuel (brush/trees/grass) were right up to the homes.
    Wildfire Today – News and opinion about wildland fire
    - Homes in some neighborhoods were close together with vegetation between homes.
    - Once the first home went up. The fire became more of a house to house fire.
    - It has been reported that some of the fires were started by downed powerlines, close in to homes. Some homeowners said they saw the fire and then it was on them

    imo.
    - Not enough was done by the homeowners to reduce fuel and Firewise the property.
    - Local fire departments were overwhelmed by the fire behavior of the wildfire and the number of structures ignited.
    - It is a damn if you do and damn if you don't on notifications.
    - The rate of spread (ros) of the fires really didn't provide much time for early warning to the public.
    - Some of the public has put way too much faith on what the local fire department or State Fire can do for them.

    It is tragic event that CA is experiencing. It is sad when any life is lost (homeowner or first responders). It is sad the amount of personal property lost. I hope the ones who have been impacted can rebuild and receive they need.
    "
    If we have data, let's look at the data. if all we have is opinions let's go with mine
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  10. #20
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    Re: Let's talk about California Fire Management + CA COMPETENCE

    Quote Originally Posted by mike2810 View Post
    I spent 30 years in wildland fire management (federal agency). My experience with the fuel load from the wet winter that is now cured, the high winds (40-70mpg), and the high temp/low rh%, it was highly unlikely a wildfire could have been stopped once started.

    That said.
    - I know that the federal and State fire agencies have been educating the public for years on Firewise (Home - Firewise) principles to reduce the risk of wildfire destroying a home.
    - From what I could see from news photos/vids/fire web sites in many areas the fuel (brush/trees/grass) were right up to the homes.
    Wildfire Today – News and opinion about wildland fire
    - Homes in some neighborhoods were close together with vegetation between homes.
    - Once the first home went up. The fire became more of a house to house fire.
    - It has been reported that some of the fires were started by downed powerlines, close in to homes. Some homeowners said they saw the fire and then it was on them

    imo.
    - Not enough was done by the homeowners to reduce fuel and Firewise the property.
    - Local fire departments were overwhelmed by the fire behavior of the wildfire and the number of structures ignited.
    - It is a damn if you do and damn if you don't on notifications.
    - The rate of spread (ros) of the fires really didn't provide much time for early warning to the public.
    - Some of the public has put way too much faith on what the local fire department or State Fire can do for them.

    It is tragic event that CA is experiencing. It is sad when any life is lost (homeowner or first responders). It is sad the amount of personal property lost. I hope the ones who have been impacted can rebuild and receive they need.
    But you know.....they never even had a plan for how to warn people now that the landlines are so often gone, and they were very quiet at the front end, and just as with 9/11 in NYC one of the biggest problems trying to get this fire down has been that there is not one communication system for all which was of course completely forseeable yet nothing was ever done.

    "This is the best we can do folks" is not going to work here.
    "That is outside THE BOUNDS, we can't talk about THAT, you can't say THAT"........is over in America.

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