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Rob Quist Tops $5 Million in Donations in Montana Special Election

Winston

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Dem in Montana special election breaks $5M fundraising mark | TheHill


Montana Democratic nominee Rob Quist’s campaign announced Thursday that he's raised more than $5 million, with just one week before the nationally watched special election for the state's only House seat.

Quist’s eye-popping fundraising haul includes more than 200,000 individual contributions the campaign said was raised in 85 days.

The high-dollar number comes as Quist looks to deliver a major upset on May 25 against Republican nominee Greg Gianforte for the seat vacated by Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke

Anyone else paying attention to this race?
 
I haven't been paying close attention, but I have plenty of family there. Some Democrats, many Republicans.
 
I haven't been paying close attention, but I have plenty of family there. Some Democrats, many Republicans.

Montana's beautiful. Harsh winters. But, amazing place for outdoorsmen.

Long story short.. Quist is the underdog. He's a very liberal Democrat. They're smearing his opponent as trying to "buy Montana". Because his opponent is very wealthy. And moved to Montana from NJ after selling his company. I think Quist has momentum.. but, he is still considered a longshot candidate. His policies are very much in line with a progressive platform. He's for single-payer healthcare. And I view this as a test for progressives. To see if you progressives can win a seat that had historically gone to conservatives. The seat up for grabs is Ryan Zinke's who is now our Interior Secretary.
 
Montana's beautiful. Harsh winters. But, amazing place for outdoorsmen.

Long story short.. Quist is the underdog. He's a very liberal Democrat. They're smearing his opponent as trying to "buy Montana". Because his opponent is very wealthy. And moved to Montana from NJ after selling his company. I think Quist has momentum.. but, he is still considered a longshot candidate. His policies are very much in line with a progressive platform. He's for single-payer healthcare. And I view this as a test for progressives. To see if you progressives can win a seat that had historically gone to conservatives. The seat up for grabs is Ryan Zinke's who is now our Interior Secretary.

The Democratic governor won reelection last year
 
Montana's beautiful. Harsh winters. But, amazing place for outdoorsmen.

Long story short.. Quist is the underdog. He's a very liberal Democrat. They're smearing his opponent as trying to "buy Montana". Because his opponent is very wealthy. And moved to Montana from NJ after selling his company. I think Quist has momentum.. but, he is still considered a longshot candidate. His policies are very much in line with a progressive platform. He's for single-payer healthcare. And I view this as a test for progressives. To see if you progressives can win a seat that had historically gone to conservatives. The seat up for grabs is Ryan Zinke's who is now our Interior Secretary.

I knew most of that, but in terms of ground-level support and whatnot, I am not that in touch with the dynamics of this race. Currently, Montana has more Democratic support than my state does, and we both shared this tradition of rural, conservative Democrat and Reaganite Conservative dynamic.

My instincts still say that Gianforte will pull in a win, but there is a much stronger Democratic constituency than my own state.
 
I knew most of that, but in terms of ground-level support and whatnot, I am not that in touch with the dynamics of this race. Currently, Montana has more Democratic support than my state does, and we both shared this tradition of rural, conservative Democrat and Reaganite Conservative dynamic.

My instincts still say that Gianforte will pull in a win, but there is a much stronger Democratic constituency than my own state.

Well, Bernie has been stumping for him. I haven't seen any polling or anything. But, IMO, this is kind of a referendum on Bernism, and if Quist wins, it's a huge recommendation and a signal to the DNC (Who has been no help.) That Bernie is stronger than the mighty national party. And if it's a loss, could diminish Bernie's standing. It will be an interesting race.

One thing I'd like to comment on is.. if Quist wins, I predict it's a huge positive boon for progressives on the national scene, it's a blow to Trump, a recommendation of Bernie and Quist, and the mainstream media will be completely silent. Because they have a memo on their desk in the morning that reads: Destroy Bernie Sanders.
 
Well, Bernie has been stumping for him. I haven't seen any polling or anything. But, IMO, this is kind of a referendum on Bernism, and if Quist wins, it's a huge recommendation and a signal to the DNC (Who has been no help.) That Bernie is stronger than the mighty national party. And if it's a loss, could diminish Bernie's standing. It will be an interesting race.

One thing I'd like to comment on is.. if Quist wins, I predict it's a huge positive boon for progressives on the national scene, it's a blow to Trump, a recommendation of Bernie and Quist, and the mainstream media will be completely silent. Because they have a memo on their desk in the morning that reads: Destroy Bernie Sanders.

Polling from earlier this month had Quist in high-single digit loss (a potential improvement from April in which he was losing by 15). That may come down some after the President's scandals and maybe some from the growing unpopularity of the AHCA (with the CBO score coming on Wednesday), but I wouldn't expect it to do too much damage.
 
Polling from earlier this month had Quin in high-single digit loss (a potential improvement from April in which he was losing by 15). That may come down some after the President's scandals and maybe some from the growing unpopularity of the AHCA (with the CBO score coming on Wednesday), but I wouldn't expect it to do too much damage.

If we can get him within the margin of error and Dems need to GOTV on Election Day, we could pull off an upset. I know you are moderate but it's still a blow to Trumpism.
 
If we can get him within the margin of error and Dems need to GOTV on Election Day, we could pull off an upset. I know you are moderate but it's still a blow to Trumpism.

If you get him in the margin of error, you may have a point, given that state polling practices in the run-up to the last election were significantly off (whereas the national polls were close to on the money). However, I wouldn't bet on it.

As for whether it would be a blow to Trumpism, maybe, a bit, yeah, but mostly no. You'll want to avoid the national narratives in states like Montana.
 
If you get him in the margin of error, you may have a point, given that state polling practices in the run-up to the last election were significantly off (whereas the national polls were close to on the money). However, I wouldn't bet on it.

As for whether it would be a blow to Trumpism, maybe, a bit, yeah, but mostly no. You'll want to avoid the national narratives in states like Montana.

It starts the conversation. It turns it into "Trump is losing us the House..."
 
It starts the conversation. It turns it into "Trump is losing us the House..."

Democrats (though more specifically, progressives) are getting far too amped up for their own good, here. You have to treat really red states differently than presuming a domino effect.
 
Democrats (though more specifically, progressives) are getting far too amped up for their own good, here. You have to treat really red states differently than presuming a domino effect.

Yeah, he may end up getting smoked. I do believe Bernie's message of income inequality is effective messaging everywhere. And I think in Montana a message of climate change, alternative energy, and hitting Republicans as being too friendly to oil and gas, could be effective.
 
Yeah, he may end up getting smoked. I do believe Bernie's message of income inequality is effective messaging everywhere. And I think in Montana a message of climate change, alternative energy, and hitting Republicans as being too friendly to oil and gas, could be effective.

Well, that's what I mean. A lot of these states don't have the animosity toward oil and gas that the coastal regions do. They might say, hey, you should decrease the tax breaks you give them, because now we are in a financial crisis. However, all things being equal, if a red state politician can get a tax break and overturn regulations for oil and gas companies without a perceptual hit to the financial status of the state government or its citizens, pulling the green card is much more likely to alienate voters than attract them. Climate change? They don't care.
 
Well, that's what I mean. A lot of these states don't have the animosity toward oil and gas that the coastal regions do. They might say, hey, you should decrease the tax breaks you give them, because now we are in a financial crisis. However, all things being equal, if a red state politician can get a tax break and overturn regulations for oil and gas companies without a perceptual hit to the financial status of the state government or its citizens, pulling the green card is much more likely to alienate voters than attract them.

I think a message of conservation and damage to the planet would be successful with outdoorsmen.. in fact, not too long ago, Montana got up in arms over Republican backed legislation to sell off public land.
 
GOP corporate oligarchy money is well beyond what we grassroots DEM supporters have given.

I've given to Quist twice, how about you ?

I gave once.
 
I think a message of conservation and damage to the planet would be successful with outdoorsmen.. in fact, not too long ago, Montana got up in arms over Republican backed legislation to sell off private land.

That's quite distinct from adopting a green profile to stop climate change.

You have to treat most of the energy sector with utilitarianism. Could you promote, say, wind energy, provided it is heavily subsidized? Absolutely. Are you going to get cheers for going against fracking? No, you'll probably piss them off. Are you going to get people all amped to defeat the consequences of man-made climate change? Absolutely not.
 
Yeah, he may end up getting smoked. I do believe Bernie's message of income inequality is effective messaging everywhere. And I think in Montana a message of climate change, alternative energy, and hitting Republicans as being too friendly to oil and gas, could be effective.

GOPs are trying to use Bernie's messages and appearance for the Omaha Mayoral candidate as a reason why Mello lost in a mod/con city in flyover country.

Never underestimate the GOP and they'll destroy you with any mistake you make with millions of corporate dirty laundry .
 
That's quite distinct from adopting a green profile to stop climate change.

You have to treat most of the energy sector with utilitarianism. Could you promote, say, wind energy, provided it is heavily subsidized? Absolutely. Are you going to get cheers for going against fracking? No, you'll probably piss them off. Are you going to get people all amped to defeat the consequences of man-made climate change? Absolutely not.

You still have to tell people the truth, and the truth is fracking is damaging our planet. And it needs to stop. I believe you can create support in states that frack because people see first-hand the damage fracking does.

In a primarily red state, they have been brainwashed by Koch money to disbelieve in climate change, so maybe try out a new messaging strategy, by using words like "energy independence". When you really mean alternative energy.
 
You still have to tell people the truth, and the truth is fracking is damaging our planet. And it needs to stop. I believe you can create support in states that frack because people see first-hand the damage fracking does.

In a primarily red state, they have been brainwashed by Koch money to disbelieve in climate change, so maybe try out a new messaging strategy, by using words like "energy independence". When you really mean alternative energy.

Ok, here's the thing with this message. It's running into the same problems Marxism did with the proletariat. It's presuming that the collective self-identity is wrong and with the right group of folks (like a Vanguard of some sort), you could "wake" them up and they will have the "correct" understanding of what is happening to them. It comes across as condescending.

It's not going to work, and certainly not going to work in a decade-long quest to improve the Democratic Party's standings in red America.
 
Well, Bernie has been stumping for him. I haven't seen any polling or anything. But, IMO, this is kind of a referendum on Bernism, and if Quist wins, it's a huge recommendation and a signal to the DNC (Who has been no help.) That Bernie is stronger than the mighty national party. And if it's a loss, could diminish Bernie's standing. It will be an interesting race.

One thing I'd like to comment on is.. if Quist wins, I predict it's a huge positive boon for progressives on the national scene, it's a blow to Trump, a recommendation of Bernie and Quist, and the mainstream media will be completely silent. Because they have a memo on their desk in the morning that reads: Destroy Bernie Sanders.

Did you just say that the DNC hasn't given Quist any money or help ?
 
Ok, here's the thing with this message. It's running into the same problems Marxism did with the proletariat. It's presuming that the collective self-identity is wrong and with the right group of folks (like a Vanguard of some sort), you could "wake" them up and they will have the "correct" understanding of what is happening to them. It comes across as condescending.

It's not going to work, and certainly not going to work in a decade-long quest to improve the Democratic Party's standings in red America.

If people never see any bad effects. But, if peoples drinking water is impacted by fracking, you can bet that will spread like gossip. I do have faith it can work in rural states. I think that's a winning component of a Democratic message. It's an area where Republicans are vulnerable.

I don't think Democrats aren't supposed to talk about certain ideas that have truth and validity because it might hurt someone's feelings.
 
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