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UW Researchers Report Price Data After Seattle’s Minimum Wage Increase

"“Overall, we found that prices in Seattle are fairly stable and they haven’t gone up very much, if at all, since the minimum wage went up starting in April of last year," said Jacob Vigdor, the Daniel J. Evans professor of public policy at UW. "The exception would be in the restaurant sector, where we found price increases on the order of 7 or 8 percent."

But restaurant prices also rose outside of Seattle. Vigdor said his team didn’t collect that much restaurant data outside the city, making it a bit hard to draw conclusions.

"So we don’t have quite as much confidence in saying that 7 or 8 percent is purely a Seattle thing or whether it’s a broader economic phenomenon that could be reflecting rising rents or bigger ingredient prices that could be affecting the entire metro area," Vigdor said. "

Since many places were likely already above minimum, as they are in my area, the $1.50 increase likely will have minimal impact. The true impact will be seen and felt once the real increase is phased in. Again, you are cheering before anything has really happened.
 
Since many places were likely already above minimum, as they are in my area, the $1.50 increase likely will have minimal impact. The true impact will be seen and felt once the real increase is phased in. Again, you are cheering before anything has really happened.

So prices went up in restaurants located in areas outside Seattle because of Seattle reached their minimum wage.???.... Even though in all other areas of employment other than restaurant industry prices were stable....???...??
 
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[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Read more @: [/FONT]UW Researchers Report Price Data After Seattle’s Minimum Wage Increase

[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Spoiler, they didnt much change. Seattle restaurant prices increased 7-8% (wohooo a burger now costs $8 instead of $7.50 [/FONT]:sarcasticclap[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]), but there is question if that is associated with the minimum wage increase because restaurant prices also rose outside of Seattle and are thought to be a broader phenomenon that is tied to rising rent and ingredient prices. The draconian predictions of raising the wage still not coming true. Its time to raise the wage nationally [/FONT]:2razz:

First of all the min wage increase isn't even fully implemented yet.
corporations just barely went from to 13$ an hour last month they don't go to 15$ an hour until next year. and that's if they didn't provide medical benefits.
if they do they only had to go to 12.50, 13.50 next year and 15 the year after that.

Small businesses went to 10.50 last month. 11.00 next year 11.50 the year after etc..

Still lets look at employment figures -
Seattle/Tacoma unemployment last august was 4.1%. end of the year 5% ( per the BLS)
They did have job growth in Transportation and Utilities and Government. All other areas either were flat or lost jobs.
 
First of all the min wage increase isn't even fully implemented yet.
corporations just barely went from to 13$ an hour last month they don't go to 15$ an hour until next year. and that's if they didn't provide medical benefits.
if they do they only had to go to 12.50, 13.50 next year and 15 the year after that.


Small businesses went to 10.50 last month. 11.00 next year 11.50 the year after etc..

Still lets look at employment figures -
Seattle/Tacoma unemployment last august was 4.1%. end of the year 5% ( per the BLS)
They did have job growth in Transportation and Utilities and Government. All other areas either were flat or lost jobs.

Like always, depends on if you're using the CES or CPS
 
Like always, depends on if you're using the CES or CPS

it this case it doesn't.

CPS is used for the unemployment rate
CES is used for the labor force data
Both show a decline.
the 5% is unadjusted btw seasonally adjusted is 5.5% I think its preferable not to adjust as its seasonal adjustments are useful for people involved in the statistics of that but generally misleading to the average person.

I did miss that there was a small bit of growth in health education and health services.
THe losses were in Construction, Manufacturing and Leisure and Hospitality which is where most of the jobs affected would be.
 
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it this case it doesn't.

CPS is used for the unemployment rate
CES is used for the labor force data
Both show a decline.
the 5% is unadjusted btw seasonally adjusted is 5.5% I think its preferable not to adjust as its seasonal adjustments are useful for people involved in the statistics of that but generally misleading to the average person.

They are both used for employment data... So it actually does matter. See here for an explanation: Comparing CES and CPS Employment | Department of Numbers
And see here for how that affects Seattle: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington Job Growth | Department of Numbers
 
They are both used for employment data... So it actually does matter. See here for an explanation: Comparing CES and CPS Employment | Department of Numbers
And see here for how that affects Seattle: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington Job Growth | Department of Numbers

Yes I know the difference. you should quit using third party sites though ive told people that tons of times.
The site you linked shows Dec 2015 CES 1,926,400
The BLS shows Dec 2015 1,874,800
 
First of all the min wage increase isn't even fully implemented yet.
corporations just barely went from to 13$ an hour last month they don't go to 15$ an hour until next year. and that's if they didn't provide medical benefits.
if they do they only had to go to 12.50, 13.50 next year and 15 the year after that.

Small businesses went to 10.50 last month. 11.00 next year 11.50 the year after etc..

Still lets look at employment figures -
Seattle/Tacoma unemployment last august was 4.1%. end of the year 5% ( per the BLS)
They did have job growth in Transportation and Utilities and Government. All other areas either were flat or lost jobs.

Minimum wage was increased and catastrophe did not occur.
 
That's because they legalized pot and everyone has the munchies.

Sure, it doesn't hurt that they pulled black market money into the public realm to create more jobs.

It seems that some liberal policies are successful.
 
Without having read the study, you explicitly referred to the study as "false statistics;" you did so on the basis that "I know the applicable economic theories, what variables might be affected and what indices you would have to measure." That was without even looking at the design of the study, or the explicit statements of the authors that this was a preliminary report, and part of an ongoing study.

What can I say, this certainly seems like you're trying to discredit a study you haven't read, as opposed to saying "ok, this is preliminary data, let's wait another 12 months and see what happens."

I.e. you were a bit too glib in your objection, and did not clear it up much in your replies.



What's not to understand?

Many people claim that raising minimum wages has numerous negative effects on an economy, typically increases in unemployment and/or inflation. The study doesn't have employment figures yet, and the data they have shows no statistically significant effects on inflation. It might be a little surprising, but hardly outlandish.

1) If you want to critique a text passage, please quote it in full.
2) Do you know the difference between "false" and "incorrect".
3) You do not realize that I was commenting on the article and not the study?
 
[/COLOR][/FONT]Spoiler, they didnt much change. Seattle restaurant prices increased 7-8% (wohooo a burger now costs $8 instead of $7.50 [/COLOR][/FONT]:sarcasticclap[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]), but there is question if that is associated with the minimum wage increase because restaurant prices also rose outside of Seattle and are thought to be a broader phenomenon that is tied to rising rent and ingredient prices. The draconian predictions of raising the wage still not coming true. Its time to raise the wage nationally [/FONT]:2razz:


Perhaps you've missed the part where the wage is not yet $15 per hour and that it started at a higher national average to begin with?
 
Perhaps you've missed the part where the wage is not yet $15 per hour and that it started at a higher national average to begin with?

I thought the theory was that prices will dramatically increase with a raise in the wage (its currently at $13)? And the only industry to increase was restaurants, even though in all other areas of employment other than restaurant industry prices were stable.... And the restaurant price increase is most likely not even associated with the min wage increase.
 
1) If you want to critique a text passage, please quote it in full.
Meaning what? You don't know what you yourself wrote?


2) Do you know the difference between "false" and "incorrect".
I do. However, you did not use the word "incorrect" in your posts #2, #5, #17, #29. You used "false statistics" in #2. (You also used it in #29, referring to "false conclusions" drawn from the research -- although "incorrect conclusions" or "wrong conclusions" is probably a better phrase.)


3) You do not realize that I was commenting on the article and not the study?
What I realize is that you were trashing a study that you hadn't read.

The article is fairly brief, and makes no claim to long-term effects; in fact, it points out that it's a multi-year study (2nd paragraph) and that the study is ongoing and continuing (2nd to last paragraph).

Thus, it really is not my problem that you appear to have had a glib knee-jerk reaction, without reading the study.
 
Meaning what? You don't know what you yourself wrote?



I do. However, you did not use the word "incorrect" in your posts #2, #5, #17, #29. You used "false statistics" in #2. (You also used it in #29, referring to "false conclusions" drawn from the research -- although "incorrect conclusions" or "wrong conclusions" is probably a better phrase.)



What I realize is that you were trashing a study that you hadn't read.

The article is fairly brief, and makes no claim to long-term effects; in fact, it points out that it's a multi-year study (2nd paragraph) and that the study is ongoing and continuing (2nd to last paragraph).

Thus, it really is not my problem that you appear to have had a glib knee-jerk reaction, without reading the study.

1) That is a remark that stops this discussion dead right here.
2)
3)
4)
5)
 
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[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Read more @: [/FONT]UW Researchers Report Price Data After Seattle’s Minimum Wage Increase

[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Spoiler, they didnt much change. Seattle restaurant prices increased 7-8% (wohooo a burger now costs $8 instead of $7.50 [/FONT]:sarcasticclap[FONT=Lato, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]), but there is question if that is associated with the minimum wage increase because restaurant prices also rose outside of Seattle and are thought to be a broader phenomenon that is tied to rising rent and ingredient prices. The draconian predictions of raising the wage still not coming true. Its time to raise the wage nationally [/FONT]:2razz:

What percentage of businesses in Seattle were paying less than $15/hr before the law went into effect?
 
I thought the theory was that prices will dramatically increase with a raise in the wage (its currently at $13)? And the only industry to increase was restaurants, even though in all other areas of employment other than restaurant industry prices were stable.... And the restaurant price increase is most likely not even associated with the min wage increase.

First, Oregon's wage was already higher than other minimum wages in the US, so the to-date increases are not nearly as impactful as they would be in areas where the cost of living is lower -- and wages are lower.

Second, their minimum wage is $9.25 but they're adopting a "tiered" system to phase in new wages. Some companies have already voluntarily increased wages. Here's the plan:

The minimum wage will rise there to $14.75 in 2022. Outside of Portland, the minimum hourly wage in mid-sized counties will go up to $13.50 over the next six years, and more rural areas will see theirs increase to $12.50.

Oregon's Tiered Minimum Wage Hike Is a Smart Approach - The Atlantic

That's over quite a bit of time.

The problem will come when the wage increases continue and prices will also continue to go up. There is no other option. I guess you could say that business owners should absorb the costs, but they won't. If they get to where their incomes are much lower -- they'll close their doors.

Right now, a restaurant can raise wages for servers and only have to raise the cost of their products a small percentage. A lot of that is due to shifting away from the "tips" scenario. Servers, depending on how good they are, might have made more when they got their tips. But, when the suppliers, the farm-vegetable workers, the drivers, and everyone else on the food-chain line all raise their costs to cover their higher minimum wages, then the cost of that burger will go up more drastically.

Inflation, all well and fine, you might say. But who really is hurt by it?

Those on limited incomes -- like Social Security -- who will not see an increase in the amount they receive monthly. Those people, and they are LEGION, will be harmed economically.
 
First, Oregon's wage was already higher than other minimum wages in the US, so the to-date increases are not nearly as impactful as they would be in areas where the cost of living is lower -- and wages are lower.

Second, their minimum wage is $9.25 but they're adopting a "tiered" system to phase in new wages. Some companies have already voluntarily increased wages. Here's the plan:



Oregon's Tiered Minimum Wage Hike Is a Smart Approach - The Atlantic
We are talking about Seattle, Washington and Seattles proposal is also tiered


The problem will come when the wage increases continue and prices will also continue to go up. There is no other option. I guess you could say that business owners should absorb the costs, but they won't. If they get to where their incomes are much lower -- they'll close their doors.
So when is the point hit that will raise the prices?

Right now, a restaurant can raise wages for servers and only have to raise the cost of their products a small percentage. A lot of that is due to shifting away from the "tips" scenario. Servers, depending on how good they are, might have made more when they got their tips. But, when the suppliers, the farm-vegetable workers, the drivers, and everyone else on the food-chain line all raise their costs to cover their higher minimum wages, then the cost of that burger will go up more drastically.

Inflation, all well and fine, you might say. But who really is hurt by it?

Those on limited incomes -- like Social Security -- who will not see an increase in the amount they receive monthly. Those people, and they are LEGION, will be harmed economically.

Those on fixed incomes is a whole separate issue that would have to be tackled
 
So when is the point hit that will raise the prices?
It could start any time in the next year or two.

Although signs are encouraging so far, they haven't collected enough data yet to make a definitive determination. The authors of the report recognize that it's still preliminary. And of course, separating out various effects won't be easy, as broader conditions or other factors will make it difficult to figure out precise causalities.

And of course, what happens in Seattle does not guarantee that other areas will show the same results.
 
So when is the point hit that will raise the prices?

It's already started -- as evidenced by your OP. With yet higher wages to be seen, it can only increase. That's a given.

Those on fixed incomes is a whole separate issue that would have to be tackled

For those who already can barely afford to heat their homes or buy food, it could be a death sentence.

You can sweep it under the rug now, but people -- real people -- will pay the price.
 
It's already started -- as evidenced by your OP.

Leaving out the huge kicker... "“Overall, we found that prices in Seattle are fairly stable and they haven’t gone up very much, if at all, since the minimum wage went up starting in April of last year," said Jacob Vigdor, the Daniel J. Evans professor of public policy at UW. "The exception would be in the restaurant sector, where we found price increases on the order of 7 or 8 percent."
But restaurant prices also rose outside of Seattle. Vigdor said his team didn’t collect that much restaurant data outside the city, making it a bit hard to draw conclusions.
"So we don’t have quite as much confidence in saying that 7 or 8 percent is purely a Seattle thing or whether it’s a broader economic phenomenon that could be reflecting rising rents or bigger ingredient prices that could be affecting the entire metro area," Vigdor said."


For those who already can barely afford to heat their homes or buy food, it could be a death sentence.
To raise the minimum wage will be a "death sentence" for those on fixed incomes? How?
 
To raise the minimum wage will be a "death sentence" for those on fixed incomes? How?

This is an economic concept that escapes many liberals. We have people, mostly the elderly, right now who survive only on SS checks. When the minimum wage goes up that much, so does the cost companies charge for their products and services in order to accommodate the higher wages. If you don't agree with that -- say so now so we can go through that in depth.

When the cost of living goes up -- who is hurt the most?

Those on limited incomes.

What does that elderly person (or any poor person) do when they can no longer pay the energy bill to cool the house? They go without, obviously. While the young have a shot at getting a job, the elderly do not.

Already energy prices are going up, and if the eco-freaks have their way, they'll go up more. What are they thinking? Answer -- they don't think.

Now, you ask how it could be a death sentence for some, and although I already explained it to you -- I'll give you more info. If we need to cover the health/fatality risk of the elderly in extreme temps -- let me know and we'll do that.

Utility increases are a bit more important than your "hamburger increases" but they will go up because those utility companies have to cover increased costs as well when the services they purchase go up.

The University of Kentucky’s Center for Business and Economic Research concludes:

A 10% increase in electricity prices: reduces economic growth by 4.1% in the short-run and 5.7% in the long-run and 2) reduces employment growth by 4% in the short-run and 11% in the long-run.

Higher electricity prices are a direct threat to U.S. wealth and health because of the large and growing role electricity plays in our lives. (Figures 3, 4). The poor hampered by increasing costs continue to fall further behind since they have basically zero capacity to cope (Figure 5). As documented, the claim that higher rates from more regulations will not result in higher utility bills thanks to efficiency “doesn’t pass the eye test” and is not rooted in historical reality. The irony of today’s political landscape is that it was Franklin D. Roosevelt himself who was among the first to grasp the importance of low cost electricity (Figure 3). Higher energy prices trickle down to lift the costs of nearly everything we do. Cheap power gives Americans more money for the consumer spending that has a potent “multiplier effect” and constitutes over 70% of U.S. GDP. Low energy prices are an environmental positive because a vibrant economy is required for a cleaner environment. The IEA reports that that Europe’s energy price gap with the U.S. will hamstring the continent for “at least 20 years.”
Forbes Welcome
 
This is an economic concept that escapes many liberals. We have people, mostly the elderly, right now who survive only on SS checks. When the minimum wage goes up that much, so does the cost companies charge for their products and services in order to accommodate the higher wages. If you don't agree with that -- say so now so we can go through that in depth.
We have not yet seen an increase in prices in Seattle. Will prices go up? Possibly, but if so it will be incredibly limited.

When the cost of living goes up -- who is hurt the most?

Those on limited incomes.
You brought up the example of social security, there are COLAs involved with social security.

Now, you ask how it could be a death sentence for some, and although I already explained it to you -- I'll give you more info. If we need to cover the health/fatality risk of the elderly in extreme temps -- let me know and we'll do that.

Utility increases are a bit more important than your "hamburger increases" but they will go up because those utility companies have to cover increased costs as well when the services they purchase go up.


Forbes Welcome
So utility price increases are the fault of the minimum wage increase? Im so confused now. I mean even your post you link states, "Residential Electricity Prices are Surging…Incomes Not so Much"....
 
This is an economic concept that escapes many liberals. We have people, mostly the elderly, right now who survive only on SS checks. When the minimum wage goes up that much, so does the cost companies charge for their products and services in order to accommodate the higher wages.
That is the theory, but theories are not proof.

That's why they are running empirical studies like this, to determine whether or not raising minimum wages has any measurable impact on inflation or employment.


When the cost of living goes up -- who is hurt the most?
Inflation doesn't necessarily hurt anyone. A low rate of inflation, like we've seen for the past ~30 years, is actually beneficial.

Social Security is indexed to inflation. Usually, so are wages, returns on investments, and interest rates at banks.

Some people have suggested that a little more inflation is a good thing. One result of a moderate level of inflation (around 5%) is that it encourages people to buy, which stimulates consumer activity.

In fact, it is plausible that one reason why wages aren't keeping up with inflation is because minimum wages are not indexed to inflation. 35 million Americans are paid MW; and bumps to MW often increase wages for those whose pay is close to MW.

Also, the opposite of inflation is deflation, which is considered very bad for an economy. When people believe that prices will go down in the future, they tend to hold off on purchases (especially big-ticket items like appliances or cars). This in turn shrinks demand, which means companies manufacture fewer goods, and start to lay off employees, which further reduces demand. The deflationary cycle is one reason why the Great Depression became so disastrous.




What does that elderly person (or any poor person) do when they can no longer pay the energy bill to cool the house? They go without, obviously. While the young have a shot at getting a job, the elderly do not.
Social Security does go up when inflation goes up.

People are continuing to work, even as they get older. Some people are working well into their 70s and even 80s. Granted, it's not always for the best of reasons; many people haven't saved adequately for retirement. That said, it's very likely that older workers will benefit from a boost in the minimum wage.

Energy prices are not going through the roof. Nor are they likely to do so, because of minimum wage increases. Most MW workers are in the service sector, and it takes a heck of a lot for prices of check-out clerks at Walmart to cause electricity prices to go up.

Even if increases in energy prices are deadly (gasp horror shock!!!), does that justify us doing something like subsidize residential energy costs for the poor? How much is too much to pay for electricity? Should we never do anything to increase electrical prices like... fix our aging grid infrastructure (a primary cause of recent energy price increases)?

You also do know that real residential electricity prices are actually down, compared to costs for most of the 20th century, yes?

realnominal.png



Already energy prices are going up, and if the eco-freaks have their way, they'll go up more. What are they thinking? Answer -- they don't think.
...or, they know that environmental actions will not, in fact, inflate energy prices beyond control.

...or, they know that inflation is not a death sentence for seniors.

...or, they know that the energy industry does not rely heavily on minimum-wage employees. Energy costs are not going to go through the roof because we bumped up minimum wages by a few dollars.
 
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