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The wall and the drug war

americanwoman said:
I feel like a wall on our southern border might trigger two things: during construction kidnappings and murders of the innocent workers would skyrocket causing the construction to stop or the construction is completed and we have on our hands an actual violent drug war. We have an appetite for drugs here, there is no denying that and there are people on both side who get very rich because of that who I think will stop at nothing to maintain that.
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I doubt anyone would be kidnapped, or that it would slow down construction.

I also doubt it would trigger a massive war.

The cartels know that they can always find a way to get their contraband across the border. They can fly over walls; they can send drones over walls; they can send boats and subs to any point along the Gulf of Mexico, or half the Pacific Coast, or half the Atlantic Coast. And of course, they can just start producing inside the US.

There is absolutely no way a border wall will make a dent in the flow of drugs. It might make it a little more costly, but that's about it.

So yes, that means the best method is to reduce demand. That's not impossible, but... not easy either.
 
Visbek said:
I doubt anyone would be kidnapped, or that it would slow down construction.


I also doubt it would trigger a massive war.

The cartels know that they can always find a way to get their contraband across the border. They can fly over walls; they can send drones over walls; they can send boats and subs to any point along the Gulf of Mexico, or half the Pacific Coast, or half the Atlantic Coast. And of course, they can just start producing inside the US.

There is absolutely no way a border wall will make a dent in the flow of drugs. It might make it a little more costly, but that's about it.

So yes, that means the best method is to reduce demand. That's not impossible, but... not easy either.
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If the wall was built and the cartels did act on their veiled threat to assassinate President Trump and succeeded, what do you think would happen?
 
americanwoman said:
Do you think the cartels would go down without a fight? I don't.
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I may just not be aware, but I don't recall the cartels fighting the legalization of cannabis in several U.S. states. The results have been a safer, better quality product to consumers and more tax revenues for the states in which cannabis is legal. Now, I have heard statistics where there have more incidents of people driving under the influence and that's bad - so legalization is not all roses and sunshine - but as l.e. cracks down on folks driving under the influence, folks will begin to grab a clue and not get behind the wheel stoned.
 
lurchadams said:
I may just not be aware, but I don't recall the cartels fighting the legalization of cannabis in several U.S. states. The results have been a safer, better quality product to consumers and more tax revenues for the states in which cannabis is legal. Now, I have heard statistics where there have more incidents of people driving under the influence and that's bad - so legalization is not all roses and sunshine - but as l.e. cracks down on folks driving under the influence, folks will begin to grab a clue and not get behind the wheel stoned.
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That's because when the legalization of cannabis happened they turned to meth and heroin. So then if we legalize meth and heroin, which lets be honest will not happen, will they look for new drugs that are similar but not legal or with less and less turf start fighting more and more. I think it would calm down eventually but who knows the money and lives it would cost.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a3d7b3b20b8_story.html?utm_term=.3c368116bcd8

Mexican traffickers are sending a flood of cheap heroin and methamphetamine across the U.S. border, the latest drug seizure statistics show, in a new sign that America’s marijuana decriminalization trend is upending the North American narcotics trade.
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EDIT, to add from that article:

Last year, 15,803 kilograms of the drug was seized along the border, up from 3,076 kilos in 2009.

Heroin and meth are far easier to transport and conceal than marijuana. Especially worrisome to U.S. officials is a growing trend of more border-crossing pedestrians carrying the drugs strapped under their clothing or hidden in body cavities.
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So there are still sizable quantities that are being pushed over the border. Now some of these might be smaller scale drug pushers who can't afford to go underground, overhead, or whatever. I think there is always the chance they will take a small chance to do whatever it takes to get the product over.
 
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americanwoman said:
I watch Mexican news, I know they are concerned and have made open threats because of the wall.
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I don't like Mexican news. It's too spicey.

But seriously - the danger is minimal - American politicians and taxpayers are not going to approve the billions of dollars required to build a 3,000 mile wall across the southern, U.S. border.
 
americanwoman said:
If the wall was built and the cartels did act on their veiled threat to assassinate President Trump and succeeded, what do you think would happen?
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That's... a pretty specific hypothetical ;)

The wall that makes The Don hard will not get built. It's little more than a political ploy anyway.

The barriers that do get constructed will fail. It won't stop immigrants, it won't stop the cartels. They will go over, or under, or around the wall.

The cartels are not going to assassinate a sitting US President. That's a fantasy.
 
ocean515 said:
I believe the black market will always exist. When taxation and revenue generation become part of the model, the "boutique" operations will be targeted, unless they are licensed.

The Drug Cartels will simply move in to take over commercial cultivation. Too much money being flashed in front of greedy people who have few values.
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Why do you think that? It didn't happen that way with alcohol. And even if they did get ownership in legal cultivating operations I'm not sure that's necessarily the end of the world given that they'd be legal, regulated enterprises.
 
Visbek said:
I doubt anyone would be kidnapped, or that it would slow down construction.

I also doubt it would trigger a massive war.

The cartels know that they can always find a way to get their contraband across the border. They can fly over walls; they can send drones over walls; they can send boats and subs to any point along the Gulf of Mexico, or half the Pacific Coast, or half the Atlantic Coast. And of course, they can just start producing inside the US.

There is absolutely no way a border wall will make a dent in the flow of drugs. It might make it a little more costly, but that's about it.

So yes, that means the best method is to reduce demand. That's not impossible, but... not easy either.
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Considering that a border wall would require taking large tracts of private property - not mention property that belongs to the states - what's going to slow the wall - perhaps kill it altogether - are all the eminent domain lawsuits that are bound to arise.

In 2006 when the Feds tried to build a 700 miles fence 400 or so lawsuits were initiated by property owners. 25% have yet to be resolved a decade later.
 
ocean515 said:
I believe the black market will always exist. When taxation and revenue generation become part of the model, the "boutique" operations will be targeted, unless they are licensed.

The Drug Cartels will simply move in to take over commercial cultivation. Too much money being flashed in front of greedy people who have few values.
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But the commercial grows are already regulated.

Un le.Sam.wants his taxes. Its the main reason states aren't fighting legalization.

Lotsa money.
 
The Resister said:
Offer Mexico a deal:

1) We will legalize drugs

2) Mexico will match us man for man and dollar for dollar for border security

3) We tax drugs coming in

4) Mexico is taxing them leaving Mexico

5) Allow people to come here and work without any obligation to become citizens

Problem solved.

IF you think you can stop drug use, then you will have to consider the death penalty for members of drug cartels and their distributors... not long sentences, but death.

Then you would have to get serious about prison reform, requiring people in prison to get a GED, some job training skills, and take seminars in real life skills (like looking for a job, applying for credit, getting an apartment or home, resolving family issues) along with rehab programs. In prison, people would no longer be able to get prison tattoos and the tattoos they do have would come off. There would be no cigarettes, coffee, sodas, candy bars or the non-essential luxuries that they had on the outside.

Anything less than what I just told you is mental masturbation.
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And every drug bust would lead to "court in the streets".

Might as well roll the dice if her gonna get the death penalty.
 
Gaius46 said:
Why do you think that? It didn't happen that way with alcohol. And even if they did get ownership in legal cultivating operations I'm not sure that's necessarily the end of the world given that they'd be legal, regulated enterprises.
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I think that, because there are billions of dollars involved. Also, the government won't tolerate anyone who sells, but doesn't pay the tax man.

I don't see the drug cartels walking away from the cash. So they go "legal" and use their massive cash flow to become the players in the legal cultivation business. Given their business model, that would be a very bad thing.
 
What if...? said:
But the commercial grows are already regulated.

Un le.Sam.wants his taxes. Its the main reason states aren't fighting legalization.

Lotsa money.
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I agree. When a new source of tax revenue can feed the beast, you can bet the beast will do everything to get it's cut.

Shadowy Cartel ownership of legal growing operations just makes sense to me. The Cartels have the ready cash, and I don't see them walking away from the profits. The problem is they are murderous villains, so that could be a problem if my prediction comes true.
 
TheGoverness said:
Very true. Cartels get the money, because we want the drugs. This is why I think most drugs should be legalized and regulated; that way the cartels will lose all of their profit.
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Please list what you consider to be "most drugs". Many drugs that are now legalized and regulated (sold by prescription only) also cause problems because they are (ab)used recreationally while known to be seriously addictive. When most folks talk about legalizing drugs they really mean (only?) marijuana and not PCP, MDMA, meth, "crack" (freebase cocaine) or herion. Selling (all of?) these drugs for recreational use, like we now sell alcohol, OTC in state, grocery or convenience stores in (up to) bulk quantities "to go" or by the dose in restaurants and/or bars for on site consumption is not likely to happen any time soon.
 
ocean515 said:
I agree. When a new source of tax revenue can feed the beast, you can bet the beast will do everything to get it's cut.

Shadowy Cartel ownership of legal growing operations just makes sense to me. The Cartels have the ready cash, and I don't see them walking away from the profits. The problem is they are murderous villains, so that could be a problem if my prediction comes true.
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American growers are proud.

And they don't like the cartels' illegal grows. They are an environmental nightmare.

So I imagine they'd push back.

And the feds would LOVE to seize cartel money.

It could happen. But the mob didn't go into alcohol production when prohibition ended, did they?
 
ocean515 said:
I think that, because there are billions of dollars involved. Also, the government won't tolerate anyone who sells, but doesn't pay the tax man.

I don't see the drug cartels walking away from the cash. So they go "legal" and use their massive cash flow to become the players in the legal cultivation business. Given their business model, that would be a very bad thing.
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If they go legal doesn't that mean that they have to play by the rules of every other legal cultivator? Meaning no killing people, no selling bad stuff etc? I'm not sure what the downside is there.
 
ocean515 said:
I think that, because there are billions of dollars involved. Also, the government won't tolerate anyone who sells, but doesn't pay the tax man.

I don't see the drug cartels walking away from the cash. So they go "legal" and use their massive cash flow to become the players in the legal cultivation business. Given their business model, that would be a very bad thing.
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So going legit and using the court system to settle disputes and contracts is a 'very bad thing'?

LOL! In what fantasy world?
 
What if...? said:
American growers are proud.

And they don't like the cartels' illegal grows. They are an environmental nightmare.

So I imagine they'd push back.

And the feds would LOVE to seize cartel money.

It could happen. But the mob didn't go into alcohol production when prohibition ended, did they?
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You could be right. But you have to admit, it's a completely different scenario. Laundering money is a forte of the Cartels, and turning those dollars into legitimate enterprises is not a new possibility.
 
Gaius46 said:
If they go legal doesn't that mean that they have to play by the rules of every other legal cultivator? Meaning no killing people, no selling bad stuff etc? I'm not sure what the downside is there.
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If they indeed try to go legal and get involved in cultivation, I don't think the Cartels have demonstrated they have much respect for the law.
 
Tanngrisnir said:
So going legit and using the court system to settle disputes and contracts is a 'very bad thing'?

LOL! In what fantasy world?
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Interesting how some of the most virulent liberal/socialist progressives, people who rail against what they seem to believe is the virus of corporate influence, think a murderous crime syndicate would operate in a fair and upstanding way.

That's rather astonishing.
 
ocean515 said:
You could be right. But you have to admit, it's a completely different scenario. Laundering money is a forte of the Cartels, and turning those dollars into legitimate enterprises is not a new possibility.
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Maybe they can invest in a trump casino! J/K
 
ocean515 said:
Interesting how some of the most virulent liberal/socialist progressives, people who rail against what they seem to believe is the virus of corporate influence, think a murderous crime syndicate would operate in a fair and upstanding way.

That's rather astonishing.
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Who are these people of which you speak?

Interesting that someone with nio understanding of even the most basic economics or our legal/business environment would think a murderous crime syndicate could stay a murderous syndicate here.

Tell me, when was the last time there was gang warfare in the streets between, oh, Coors and Budweiser?
 
Tanngrisnir said:
Who are these people of which you speak?

Interesting that someone with nio understanding of even the most basic economics or our legal/business environment would think a murderous crime syndicate could stay a murderous syndicate here.

Tell me, when was the last time there was gang warfare in the streets between, oh, Coors and Budweiser?
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No understanding of the most basic economics or our legal/business environment? What a waste my MBA was, and dang, you'd be astonished what I sold my company for a number of years ago, let alone the one I just sold earlier this year.

Regardless, I don't recall reading the Coors Family, or the family of Adolphus Busch, were engaged in torture, murder, bribery, and extortion, before founding their companies.

Could you direct me to that history, because I apparently missed it.
 
ocean515 said:
No understanding of the most basic economics or our legal/business environment? What a waste my MBA was, and dang, you'd be astonished what I sold my company for a number of years ago, let alone the one I just sold earlier this year.
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Looks like you'd better ask for your money back, given you lack the fundamentals of how markets work. And I'll let Bill Gates know you're available when we lunch next Tuesday.
Regardless, I don't recall reading the Coors Family, or the family of Adolphus Busch, were engaged in torture, murder, bribery, and extortion, before founding their companies.
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No, but the gangsters who distributed alcohol during Prohibition surely did. Slept through history too, eh?
Could you direct me to that history, because I apparently missed it.
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Sounds like you missed all of it.
 
Tanngrisnir said:
Looks like you'd better ask for your money back, given you lack the fundamentals of how markets work. And I'll let Bill Gates know you're available when we lunch next Tuesday.

No, but the gangsters who distributed alcohol during Prohibition surely did. Slept through history too, eh?

Sounds like you missed all of it.
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LOL

Have a nice day. Say hi to Billy.
 
What if...? said:
The worst drug problem we have right now comes with a prescription.

And they're already using g drones to carry drugs across the border.

They have submarines.

"Fighting" drugs is a hopeless process. Everytime they stop one wayanother pops up to replace it.

And this will continue as long as there's millions in it.

If drugs weren't illegal there wouldn't be enough money in it.

And addicts would be able to support habits collecting cans.

Sad, but happy people don't get addicted to non-opioid drugs, they might use but don't get addicted.

Addiction is born of misery, of life being cheap and pointless.

But addressing that would mean less profits.

So we will continue to inflict suffering on the already miserable at the low low price of billions.

And continue to make little or no impact on supply.

The definition of insanity.
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Completely agreed, and therefore the actual "root cause" of our drug problem is our pernicious drug policy of prohibition.

It's easy to say "demand for drugs" is the root problem, which on the surface could be a true statement, but that is only part of the problem.

After all, our "demand" for cigarettes and caffeine and alcohol is met in a legal way. Users of those drugs do so within normal and legal social structures, but users of those several drugs deemed "illegal" must operate outside the law, and fill up our prisons in the process. Poor policy.
 
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