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If we have a high stock market and more than 10% unemployment nationally in November

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jamesbyoung

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If we have a high stock market and more than 10% unemployment nationally and higher than that in the red states, the GOP will be swept away.

The working class will come with torches and pitchforks for the Trump administration.

4 Reasons Investors Should Prepare For 'Liberal Landslide' In November

The Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election has the potential to be the biggest stock market catalyst of the year. The latest numbers from online prediction market PredictIt suggest Democrats have a 52% chance of capturing the White House from President Donald Trump, but former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson suggested last week that a potential Democratic victory in November could be more lopsided than investors realize.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4...192234136.html

Trump mentally ill.jpg
 
Much of the working class has retirement accounts that are doing well. Maybe try to sell your argument to the poor who plan to stay that way. So far the democrats are trying to keep the population on welfare so as to strangle the “Trump Boom”. They don’t want to free us “Until it is safe!” “Until a vaccine is developed!” “Until Trump is defeated!”

Doom and gloom comes from within.
 
jamesbyoung said:
If we have a high stock market and more than 10% unemployment nationally and higher than that in the red states, the GOP will be swept away.

The working class will come with torches and pitchforks for the Trump administration.

4 Reasons Investors Should Prepare For 'Liberal Landslide' In November

The Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election has the potential to be the biggest stock market catalyst of the year. The latest numbers from online prediction market PredictIt suggest Democrats have a 52% chance of capturing the White House from President Donald Trump, but former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson suggested last week that a potential Democratic victory in November could be more lopsided than investors realize.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4...192234136.html
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I think the governors should be watching their backs if there is 10% unemployment in November...since they are the ones who ordered businesses to close in the first place.
 
chuckiechan said:
Much of the working class has retirement accounts that are doing well. Maybe try to sell your argument to the poor who plan to stay that way. So far the democrats are trying to keep the population on welfare so as to strangle the “Trump Boom”. They don’t want to free us “Until it is safe!” “Until a vaccine is developed!” “Until Trump is defeated!”

Doom and gloom comes from within.
Click to expand...

For now

How realistic is having a high stock market in what many claim is a deep recession combined with mass government borrowing?

The stock market is high because of government interference in the market ie stimulus that taxpayers will have to pay for. Taxpayers subsidizing shareholders and foreign investors
 
Mycroft said:
I think the governors should be watching their backs if there is 10% unemployment in November...since they are the ones who ordered businesses to close in the first place.
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Yes they listened to the CDC and White House recommendations. Funny how you keep forgetting that part in your moronic posts.
 
The election is a referendum on Trump.

Do you think Trump acts infantile? Do you think Trump is in over his head? Do you think he is a national embarrassment?

Vote him out.
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
For now

How realistic is having a high stock market in what many claim is a deep recession combined with mass government borrowing?

The stock market is high because of government interference in the market ie stimulus that taxpayers will have to pay for. Taxpayers subsidizing shareholders and foreign investors
Click to expand...

All true. But borrowing at the rate we are borrowing may lead to inflation. Inflation benefits assets, damages cash.
 
We have not seen super inflation since the 80s.

High inflation is tolerable if you have plenty of cash and it will help inflate the price of your assets, if you have rental property, as we do.
 
chuckiechan said:
All true. But borrowing at the rate we are borrowing may lead to inflation. Inflation benefits assets, damages cash.
Click to expand...

Inflation does not "benefit" assets. Assets may perform better than cash but they still suffer in high inflation periods. Just look at other countries, or even US in the 70s'. E.g. stock market that nominally gained 23% in 1966-1982 period, actually lost 59% in real dollars.
 
swing_voter said:
The election is a referendum on Trump.

Do you think Trump acts infantile? Do you think Trump is in over his head? Do you think he is a national embarrassment?

Vote him out.
Click to expand...

I don't care how he acts.

He passed his tax cut and failed to produce more growth than deficit, and without the pandemic, that is what matters to me.

Democrats reduce their deficits and hand over growing economies for the Reprobates to run into oblivion for the rich.
 
Exquisitor said:
Democrats reduce their deficits and hand over growing economies for the Reprobates to run into oblivion for the rich.
Click to expand...

"
Reagan took the deficit from 70 billion to 175 billion.
Bush 41 took it to 300 billion.
Clinton got it to zero.
Bush 43 took it from 0 to 1.2 trillion.
Obama halved it to 600 billion.
Trump’s got it back to a trillion.

Morons: “Democrats cause deficits.”
"

source

Pretty accurate history
 
Praxas said:
Yes they listened to the CDC and White House recommendations. Funny how you keep forgetting that part in your moronic posts.
Click to expand...

When people...doesn't matter if they are in red or blue states...see other states opening up...people going back to work...and then look at their own governors who are keeping their lock down in place for the next two months, they aren't going to question Trump. They are going to question their governor.

Of course, the media...the Trump haters, such as yourself, will keep trying to blame Trump...but most of the people aren't useful idiots.
 
chuckiechan said:
Much of the working class has retirement accounts that are doing well. Maybe try to sell your argument to the poor who plan to stay that way. So far the democrats are trying to keep the population on welfare so as to strangle the “Trump Boom”. They don’t want to free us “Until it is safe!” “Until a vaccine is developed!” “Until Trump is defeated!”

Doom and gloom comes from within.
Click to expand...

I certainly feel relieved that all Republicans are working and did not accept any stimulus help in any way to include Republican business owners...Nope, forget that since Republicans have gladly accepted help in any form from the govt. Carry on...
 
Mycroft said:
When people...doesn't matter if they are in red or blue states...see other states opening up...people going back to work...and then look at their own governors who are keeping their lock down in place for the next two months, they aren't going to question Trump. They are going to question their governor.
Click to expand...

Maybe moronic Trump supporters will, but not intelligent people. Moronic Trump supporters are like the pastor who said "God will protect him" and then got the virus and died. That's the type of moronic Trump supporters who you look up to.
 
"If... If... If..."

There is way too much that can change between now and election day, then again there could still be plenty of fallout from this mess as well.
 
Mycroft said:
I think the governors should be watching their backs if there is 10% unemployment in November...since they are the ones who ordered businesses to close in the first place.
Click to expand...
What? Trump shut the country down with his national guidelines.


 
jamesbyoung said:
We have not seen super inflation since the 80s.

High inflation is tolerable if you have plenty of cash and it will help inflate the price of your assets, if you have rental property, as we do.
Click to expand...
With "plenty" being what?

With 40% of Americans having less that $400 in cash reserves, and the average American having four figures, this is your "tolerable" solution? For who? The landord class, who will clean-up on equity growth due to asset appreciation, while their tenets' meager cash reserves dwindle in purchasing power as their rents concurrently increase?
 
Slavister said:
"
Reagan took the deficit from 70 billion to 175 billion.
Bush 41 took it to 300 billion.
Clinton got it to zero.
Bush 43 took it from 0 to 1.2 trillion.
Obama halved it to 600 billion.
Trump’s got it back to a trillion.

Morons: “Democrats cause deficits.”
"

source

Pretty accurate history
Click to expand...
Very well presented! :thumbs:
 
chuckiechan said:
All true. But borrowing at the rate we are borrowing may lead to inflation. Inflation benefits assets, damages cash.
Click to expand...

It should lead to inflation

But we could see asset inflation and deflation in consumer goods. It would be like South America with two economies. One for the formal economy and one for the informal
 
Chomsky said:
With "plenty" being what?

With 40% of Americans having less that $400 in cash reserves, and the average American having four figures, this is your "tolerable" solution? For who? The landord class, who will clean-up on equity growth due to asset appreciation, while their tenets' meager cash reserves dwindle inMy purchasing power as their rents concurrently increase?
Click to expand...

We are both stating facts, Chomsky. If a person has plenty of cash, he will be ok. That does not mean it is "tolerable" for those who don't. Don't put this down as "your 'tolerable' situation." That ascribes only your biased, miscued perception of what I wrote.

My point is that the upper 50%, as always, will be OK, and the lower 50% as always will be screwed by the GOP, and they will make the Republicans pay at the polls.
 
jamesbyoung said:
We are both stating facts, Chomsky. If a person has plenty of cash, he will be ok. That does not mean it is "tolerable" for those who don't. Don't put this down as "your 'tolerable' situation." That ascribes only your biased, miscued perception of what I wrote.
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Alright, if I read more into your post than was there - my mistake - you have my apologies.

My point is that the upper 50%, as always, will be OK, and the lower 50% as always will be screwed by the GOP, and they will make the Republicans pay at the polls.
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Yeah, agreed.

It's a poignantly sad fact that many of us can look at the average family income of 50 grand, and realize we personally find that to be in the low wage. Which brings the further sad realization that half the country lives on less.

Obviously 50K means different things based upon one's situation & geography. But around here, that won't get a family of four the basics of a safe neighborhood, much less other important & necessary things to adequately provide for your family.
 
Chomsky said:
Alright, if I read more into your post than was there - my mistake - you have my apologies.

Yeah, agreed.

It's a poignantly sad fact that many of us can look at the average family income of 50 grand, and realize we personally find that to be in the low wage. Which brings the further sad realization that half the country lives on less.

Obviously 50K means different things based upon one's situation & geography. But around here, that won't get a family of four the basics of a safe neighborhood, much less other important & necessary things to adequately provide for your family.
Click to expand...

Yeah, you are 100% right. You should have seen the disparity in East Texas between the upper 50% and the lower 50%. It was awful. The barrier was marked dramatically by race and national origin also.
 
jamesbyoung said:
Yeah, you are 100% right. You should have seen the disparity in East Texas between the upper 50% and the lower 50%. It was awful. The barrier was marked dramatically by race and national origin also.
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Yep. For many of us, income level is directly related to the safety of our neighborhoods. I'm not sure how this applies to rural areas. But in large cities, it is usually a pretty direct correlation. The more you pay for housing, the safer the neighborhood and the better the (public) schools.

For reference - I just posted the post linked below, about one facet of my life growing-up in a working-class (euro) immigrant neighborhood of a very large city. That experience today is what 50K might get you in places like Chicago or NY. Maybe. Maybe not even.

It wasn't that bad though, because in the post I'm highlighting the crap that sometimes went down in the alleys. The neighborhood was otherwise workable, depending upon one's life's motivation. There were a lot of resources available to do well, with a great Catholic School System & the city at our feet. But there also was all the opportunity to go bad you could want, if that was your thing. You make your choices.

DP
 
jamesbyoung said:
If we have a high stock market and more than 10% unemployment nationally and higher than that in the red states, the GOP will be swept away.

The working class will come with torches and pitchforks for the Trump administration.

4 Reasons Investors Should Prepare For 'Liberal Landslide' In November

The Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election has the potential to be the biggest stock market catalyst of the year. The latest numbers from online prediction market PredictIt suggest Democrats have a 52% chance of capturing the White House from President Donald Trump, but former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson suggested last week that a potential Democratic victory in November could be more lopsided than investors realize.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4...192234136.html

View attachment 67281059
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Don;t you believe it. Not one bit of it.

this is going to be decided by feelings..and whether people feel trump is their man..

Or biden is.

Stock market, unemployment numbers.. none of that matter, especially since the voter group that is most prominent (white older people), are insulated from those two factors.
 
Mycroft said:
When people...doesn't matter if they are in red or blue states...see other states opening up...people going back to work...and then look at their own governors who are keeping their lock down in place for the next two months, they aren't going to question Trump. They are going to question their governor.

Of course, the media...the Trump haters, such as yourself, will keep trying to blame Trump...but most of the people aren't useful idiots.
Click to expand...

That all depends on how things are in a week or so.

If infections go geometric again nobody will believe anything trump says on the subject again.

We're gonna see how good an idea throwing the doors open was in real-time over the next couple of weeks.

I could be wrong, but I don't think this virus is a trump supporter. So I suspect it will just continue to virus it's ass off.
 
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