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Liz Warren Polling Collapses - What Gives?

maxparrish

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A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

This new one from Quinnipiac is “just one poll,” as the data nerds like to say, except … it’s not really “just one poll.” As we’ll see momentarily, Warren has been slipping in lots of polls over the past month and a half. And her downturn in today’s data isn’t really a “slip,” it’s a minor catastrophe. She went from 28 percent in Quinnipiac’s last poll, good enough to lead the pack, to 14 percent today. Half of her support vanished.
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Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

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Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?
 
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A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

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[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?

Astrology.

https://www.debatepolitics.com/us-el...elections.html
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?
she wasn't actually an "extremist", she was a corporate dem masquerading as a populist-lefty.
 
she wasn't actually an "extremist", she was a corporate dem masquerading as a populist-lefty.

Her masquerade worked for most folk, which apparently means she convinced so many her polling went into the toilet.
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][/SUB]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?

It's quite possible that rank-and-file Dems sense what the Dem leadership and most Dems around here don't seem to -- that they can't make this about fulfilling a "progressive" wish list, and they need a candidate who appeals to more than just "progressives," because Trump hatred isn't enough to carry the election. There are lots of people out there disgusted with Trump who still don't want a sharp veer to the left. Even Obama gets that.

In other words, "Trump sucks, so you'll damn well vote for whomever we put in front of you!" isn't a winning strategy.
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?

Warren's problem major problem is her assertion that federal spending could be doubled without additional taxation of the middle class. Another problem is her rapidly "evolving" position(s?) on M4A. IMHO, she seems to be randomly weaving back and forth between the moderate lane of Biden, Buttigieg and now Bloomberg and the left lane of Sanders - appearing to be somewhat out of control of "her" message.
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?

This tends to happen during primaries, someone else is the new hotness.
 
Her masquerade worked for most folk, which apparently means she convinced so many her polling went into the toilet.
i think most democrats started examining her positions as she was getting more popular, and realized there was nothing there. It also coincides with her more recent "neo-con" stance on foriegn policy.
 
It's quite possible that rank-and-file Dems sense what the Dem leadership and most Dems around here don't seem to -- that they can't make this about fulfilling a "progressive" wish list, and they need a candidate who appeals to more than just "progressives," because Trump hatred isn't enough to carry the election. There are lots of people out there disgusted with Trump who still don't want a sharp veer to the left. Even Obama gets that.

In other words, "Trump sucks, so you'll damn well vote for whomever we put in front of you!" isn't a winning strategy.

That is usually accomplished by having positions evolve after winning the DNC nomination - Warren seems to be evolving "her" position(s) even before the primaries.
 
That is usually accomplished by having positions evolve after winning the DNC nomination - Warren seems to be evolving "her" position(s) even before the primaries.

In normal years, it is.
 
she wasn't actually an "extremist", she was a corporate dem masquerading as a populist-lefty.

Perhaps I should have titled this thread "WHAT YA'ALL DON'T GET ABOUT LIZA ANN WARREN". And what ya'all don't get is indicative of the generational and regional differences that are largely unrecognized by those less than 50 or 60.

My own understanding of Warren, aside from my knowing the history of populism, is also informed by a coincidence - although a totally west coast California kid in my early adulthood (25 to 35) I lived in Oklahoma, dated a woman with a family history of state politics, and got to understand a culture that is now becoming increasingly forgotten and dated - the legacy of Southern-Midwestern prairie populism, the cultural roots of most heritage born Okies.

Warren, who grew up in Tulsa, is very much a descendent of that heritage, i.e., a culture once steeped in sympathy for the "common man" of the Democratic party. That era (e.g. Huey Long) viewed the PRIMARY ideological war as one of class. Most people were white, gender issues non-existent, "immigrants" rare, most religion was protestant, and differences between parties largely based on perceptions of wealth, education, and class advantages. Populism of the region was the core movement of the common man, the rural hard scrabble family life as portrayed in the Grapes of Wrath. And like all populists, folks hated "big" anything - "big banks", "insurance companies", and "big out of state businesses". Still, such politics did not divide community and family, whose bonds were far stronger than today.

Warren is of that generation and her left wing politics are rooted in the traditional old left allegiance to the working man community and family. Her own family is seemingly like the many I got to know: hard working, responsible, gritty, and determined that their kids - including the girls - got good jobs or a good education. And like most in that part of the country, they can't stand wealthy show offs or elites of any types (I knew many very rich farmers that dressed no different than, and went to the same bars as, the ordinary day laborers).

If this were 1980 or even 1992 Warren's class based politics would fit easily. But the left has moved on from politicizing class differences to also politicizing one's sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, race, national origin, residency status, and religious ethnic allegiances (e.g. Islam). "Racism" ,"Sexism", and "Homophobia" is a far more serious social problem to the left than "classism".

All of this makes her a bit arcane; Warren has not related to identity politics (including women's politics) until the last few years. She has never been known for table pounding over women's representation or the "glass ceiling". And in spite of her own embellishment of her minority status, her own participation in hiring decisions of others has never hinted of the slightest concern for anything other than the hire's scholarly accomplishments.

Warren is not a phony progressive, she is just an old fashioned progressive without the modern axe-grinding. That the modern progressive doesn't even recognize its own roots shows how much has changed.
 
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The bolded above is her problem - there is no Warren position.

Isn't that just good politics? She's trying to be everything to everyone in order to garner the maximum amount of votes.
 
Everyone is overthinking this. Once she became a frontrunner, people took a closer look at her signature plan. When she could not answer simple questions about it, splat.
 
Warren is not a phony progressive, she is just an old fashioned progressive without the modern axe-grinding. That the modern progressive doesn't even recognize its own roots shows how much has changed.

Interesting read, thanks.
 
Not enough cow bell?

Just guessing.
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?
According to RCP averages, Warren climbed from 8% in June up to 27% on 9 Oct, then fell to 17% as of today. Biden climbed from 26% 9 Oct to 28% today. Sanders from 15% up to 18%. Buttigieg over the same time period when up from 5% to 10%. I'd call it more or less a reshuffling.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

When one or more go up, someone or some folks must go down. These are national numbers, the nominee will be decided in the states, not nationally. Iowa first in the nation, Warren lead on 9 Oct with 22%, she's fallen to third place with 17%. Behind Buttigieg, Sanders with Biden in 4th.


On 9 Oct Warren lead NH with 26%, she's now in third place with 14%. Again behind buttigieg, Sanders and Biden in 4th. Warren was in 2nd place behind Biden on 9 Oct, she's still in 2nd place behind Biden. Lastly, South Carolina, Warren was in 2nd place behind Biden with 16%, today, she's still in 2nd, but with 13%. Next comes super Tuesday.

The big winner seems to be Buttigieg over the last month. What Buttigieg has done was ditch the ultra liberal rhetoric and moved more toward the center. Interesting. But can Buttigieg keep on advancing or will he begin to fall like Warren has? Also Biden and Sanders seem fairly steady, never rising or falling more than a couple to three points over a long period of time.
 
Isn't that just good politics? She's trying to be everything to everyone in order to garner the maximum amount of votes.

She is trying to be a better follower which is not the same as being a good leader.
 
Perhaps I should have titled this thread "WHAT YA'ALL DON'T GET ABOUT LIZA ANN WARREN". And what ya'all don't get is indicative of the generational and regional differences that are largely unrecognized by those less than 50 or 60.

My own understanding of Warren, aside from my knowing the history of populism, is also informed by a coincidence - although a totally west coast California kid in my early adulthood (25 to 35) I lived in Oklahoma, dated a woman with a family history of state politics, and got to understand a culture that is now becoming increasingly forgotten and dated - the legacy of Southern-Midwestern prairie populism, the cultural roots of most heritage born Okies.

Warren, who grew up in Tulsa, is very much a descendent of that heritage, i.e., a culture once steeped in sympathy for the "common man" of the Democratic party. That era (e.g. Huey Long) viewed the PRIMARY ideological war as one of class. Most people were white, gender issues non-existent, "immigrants" rare, most religion was protestant, and differences between parties largely based on perceptions of wealth, education, and class advantages. Populism of the region was the core movement of the common man, the rural hard scrabble family life as portrayed in the Grapes of Wrath. And like all populists, folks hated "big" anything - "big banks", "insurance companies", and "big out of state businesses". Still, such politics did not divide community and family, whose bonds were far stronger than today.

Warren is of that generation and her left wing politics are rooted in the traditional old left allegiance to the working man community and family. Her own family is seemingly like the many I got to know: hard working, responsible, gritty, and determined that their kids - including the girls - got good jobs or a good education. And like most in that part of the country, they can't stand wealthy show offs or elites of any types (I knew many very rich farmers that dressed no different than, and went to the same bars as, the ordinary day laborers).

If this were 1980 or even 1992 Warren's class based politics would fit easily. But the left has moved on from politicizing class differences to also politicizing one's sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, race, national origin, residency status, and religious ethnic allegiances (e.g. Islam). "Racism" ,"Sexism", and "Homophobia" is a far more serious social problem to the left than "classism".

All of this makes her a bit arcane; Warren has not related to identity politics (including women's politics) until the last few years. She has never been known for table pounding over women's representation or the "glass ceiling". And in spite of her own embellishment of her minority status, her own participation in hiring decisions of others has never hinted of the slightest concern for anything other than the hire's scholarly accomplishments.

Warren is not a phony progressive, she is just an old fashioned progressive without the modern axe-grinding. That the modern progressive doesn't even recognize its own roots shows how much has changed.
nearly Everything you said about her is true of bernie sanders

And yet, she's the one that raised corporate money for her senate campaigns, switched when it became conveniant, and continues to endorse the neo-con style of foreign policy. I'm sure she was an old style progressive at one point, but she clearly sold out.
 
nearly Everything you said about her is true of bernie sanders

And yet, she's the one that raised corporate money for her senate campaigns, switched when it became conveniant, and continues to endorse the neo-con style of foreign policy. I'm sure she was an old style progressive at one point, but she clearly sold out.

True in one respect - her foreign policy remains as it was in the cold war...interventionist, NATO supporter, and anti-Russian and anti-Chinese. By in large, I see these as huge positives over Sanders.

However, I see very little difference between Sanders and Warren on domestic economic issues. Both are protective of American labor (and see nothing wrong with tariffs), both hate business, and both (but especially Sanders) see some logic in opposing some immigration. The only substantive difference here is that Bernie has been the definition of a communist sympathizer and useful agent of totalitarian regimes.
 
She is trying to be a better follower which is not the same as being a good leader.

This is why I have come to decide that Warren will make a good VP, but not the leader of the nation. I think she is a teacher and an innovator, and when she stays in that realm she is OK. But definitely not presidential material.
 
A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?

Her partial backpeddle on MFA with the public option 'bridge'.

She bled a lot of progressives in her camp to Bernie since, both because it demonstrated her as being something of a flip flopper, and because she disappointed those committed to singlepayer.
 
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A few months ago, in spite of her reputation as an extremist and auto-biographical manipulator, Warren seemed to have caught fire with her populist pot-banging and nanny styled lecturing. Then her decline began, now placing her about 1/2 of her prior peak. What gives?

[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]

Hoo boy: New poll shows Warren in free fall, losing half her national support

(Hopefully we won't hear the pin-headed whining that the source and link to Quinnipiac results are passed on by a conservative blog).

[/FONT]
Lots of speculation here: the surprising backlash against her Medicare for All, Buttiege's rise, and nagging problems with honest responses on background and personal experiences - the latest being her denial response to a black woman's claim that her kids went to private schools - turns out one of the two did, the boy attended private school after the 4th grade, till HS graduation.

What's her problem?
Politics has sadly become too dependent on appearances rather than substance. Politicians gain voter support by repeating regurgitated feel good talking points on campaign trails that rarely result in beneficial changes after election. Winning becomes a matter of who can fool most of the people most of the time. Tragic.
 
True in one respect - her foreign policy remains as it was in the cold war...interventionist, NATO supporter, and anti-Russian and anti-Chinese. By in large, I see these as huge positives over Sanders.

However, I see very little difference between Sanders and Warren on domestic economic issues. Both are protective of American labor (and see nothing wrong with tariffs), both hate business, and both (but especially Sanders) see some logic in opposing some immigration. The only substantive difference here is that Bernie has been the definition of a communist sympathizer and useful agent of totalitarian regimes.

While Sanders is not really interventionist (which is very much a good thing per most of our experiences since the Korean War, particularly in the ME where Sanders' predictions and judgement have been mostly prescient) and greatly favours diplomacy and dialogue over exercise of hard military power, it absolutely cannot be said that he isn't a NATO supporter (if you have evidence that he's not, I'd like to see it; all I've seen in this regard is that he is against further expansion), nor that he will not get tough on Russia and China as needed; in fact he's the only one among Dem primary candidates I recall talking about the need to engage in economic confrontation with China should their trade policies warrant as much, as well as discouraging their military build up: Bernie Sanders on China
 
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This is why I have come to decide that Warren will make a good VP, but not the leader of the nation. I think she is a teacher and an innovator, and when she stays in that realm she is OK. But definitely not presidential material.

What teacher that you know would double the debt without raising taxes?
 
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