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Trump did not boom the economy. Here is the proof.

Chomsky said:
You're trying to nit-pick & cherry-pic data. It's pretty clear graphically, that Trump's GDP growth isn't substantively better than Obama's. More concerning, it seems to be slowing down - though I believe that's simply regressing to the mean.
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Seems you know more than the economists at the Fed. The Fed has raised rates many times during Trump's tenure. Then again perhaps you are correct since they have cut rates more recently.

If the hundreds of PHD's at the Fed can't figure it out I certainly can't.
 
It's critical for a liar like Donald Trump to take credit for the trends that we were already on.

Otherwise he's not the genius that he told then he was.

I don't think republicans are going to see this thread though because they're at a Tea Party rally (they are massively concerned about our national deficit and debt).
 
washunut said:
It is simply untrue (a lie?) that the Fed has not increased Fed fund rates during Trump's tenure.
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Not by a whole lot in the historical context, keeping rates at historic lows because the markets are drunk on cheap credit and recently they cut it for a third time this year after a barrage of Trump Twitter Artillery demanding that they do so.
 
A big part of Donald Trump's strategy is simply to create chaos and then solve his own mess.

And there are actual adults dumb enough to fall for that.

I hope farmers and coal miners at least understand how big a liar he is.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Not by a whole lot in the historical context, keeping rates at historic lows because the markets are drunk on cheap credit and recently they cut it for a third time this year after a barrage of Trump Twitter Artillery demanding that they do so.
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They lowered rates as the economy cooled.
 
Drawdown said:
Confidence is really the driver and there is no denying that the stock market took off as soon as Trump was elected. Didn't even take him being sworn in. I personally thought it was idiotic but so far that confidence has held.
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There is plenty of denying. Plenty. I provided you a graph showing the market trending to make that very point. The markets would be where they are now regardless of who was elected in 2016
 
theLiquidGuy said:
I am cool with that. The problem is that conservative pundits and politicians are way too quick to credit Trump for everything good,in order to sell the public on re-electing him. Trumpism had virtually nothing to do with it. He inherited the trending economy and took credit for it, much like he inherited hundreds of millions from his dad -- and took credit for it.

Conclusion: Trump is no economic messiah.
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Maybe not, but even there is still far more market confidence with him as the executor of law.
 
Chomsky said:
Thanks for the effort. You can't argue with the numbers. Trump's numbers are no better or worse than Obama's.

But the real question is:

What are we getting for the 1.1T deficit it's costing?
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Very good question. I will answer: for the the $1.1 trillion deficit we get to enjoy the benefits of tax cuts for people who don’t need and probably mostly don’t even want it. Oh we also get corporate stock buy-backs. Hoooray! And now that we have such a terrible deficit we can’t even afford to discuss infrastructure. Thank God Trump did all this.
 
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theLiquidGuy said:
For as long as Trump has been president, his supporters have been pretending that his deregulation and tax policies made it all possible.
This is demonstrably false. Take a look...

Let's start with unemployment.
It is perfectly true to say that under Trump we have the lowest unemployment since the 60s.
But nothing is as simple as republicans would like you to believe.
As you can see in the chart below, Obama inherited an abysmal unemployment rate from the previous republican president...10%
The chart shows how --over the course of 8 years-- unemployment dropped to about 4.7%.
But wait! Here comes Trump to save the day! During the next two years Trump continued the trend that Obama started.
Who gets the credit? I'll let you decide.

View attachment 67267955


See the next post for Stock market...
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What a joke. Please explain the immediate rise in the economy and economic indicators upon the election of Trump.
 
theLiquidGuy said:
OK lets say that's true. See what happened under Obama? The economy trended for the better.
Either presidents get credit for the economy or they don't. Which is it?
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It had to rebound at some point. It rebounded after people of wealth adjusted their strategies. The people as a whole are worse off still.

theLiquidGuy said:
I am perfectly happy to say that presidents do not deserve credit. But that means that Trump doesn't deserve the credit for the so-called "economic miracle" that is occuring.
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That's debatable. He puts out positive messages to the corporate community. When the US businesses thrive, we all thrive in the US.

theLiquidGuy said:
If that's true then what is Trump's major accomplishment? Making mexico pay for a wall that people are sawing through and laddering over anyway?
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That was a bad message to put out, but since we don't have a virtual wall, we need a real wall. I don't care who pays for it. Most people don't. It was stupid of him to say they would pay for it.

The biggest thing he has done that I disagree with is trying to change NAFTA. I don't have a problem with NAFTA Maybe it should be tweaked a bit, but it is way down on my list of problems. I disagree with the trade agreements that followed, siphoning our manufacturing jobs to Asia and other areas of the world. I can accept some of our jobs relocating to Mexico. They are our immediate neighbor, and if we helped their economy, we would have less drugs and less illegal immigrants coming over the border.
 
Bullseye said:
3.5% isn't better than 4.6%? It's been a while since I went to school, but that doesn't sound right.
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You are right. 3.5% unemployment is better than 4.6%. But you are missing the point: We didn’t get to 3.5% because of Trump.

We were on that trajectory for years. Did you not see the graph i placed in the first post?

Now Trump and his supporters brag about how he supposedly cured unemployment. Gimme a break.

Look at the graph!
 
Jetboogieman said:
Generally speaking Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for good and bad times, there’s only so much they can really do however in Trumps and republicans case, during a supposed good economic time, the amount they have cut taxes and the fact the fed has not raised interest rates from seemingly Trump pressure means that when the next recession comes and it will come...

The monetary and fiscal policy tools at the governments disposal to deal with that recession will be severely diminished and that goes for a lot of nations right now because they’ve followed the Feds lead or even lower into negative interest rates.
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This has been my biggest concern for several years. Republicans tend to paint the government into a fiscal box. It happened under Reagan, Bush, Jr., and now Trump. Granted, it is facilitated by Republican legislatures, but based upon the same economic philosophy. GOP economists tend to think in 1970s terms, supporting policies that have been discredited for decades. If you think the 2008 recession was bad... hoo boy!
 
Bullseye said:
This is oldest idiocy in the book. Take a look at that slope of the line in 2015-2016 - almost flat; It then drops dramatically from the point you so graciously pointed out for us.
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Is that your best argument?
That 7 years of continues improvement temporarily plateaus and then continues to improve?
Trump was sworn in late in January. Are you also saying that he is responsible for the drop in unemployment that occurred in the first quarter as well? No way. Thats way too soon. Economic indicators do not change instantaneously. There is a lag period of months or years.

That sounds like a pretty desperate attempt to assail the obvious truth: Obamas administration (not Trump) fixed the unemployment problem (that is, if you want to take these numbers at face value).
 
Bullseye said:
[...]Obama had the boost of a recovering economy in his first few years;
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He did????? He inherited a disaster from Bush and the charts show it. My god.

Bullseye said:
Of course he managed to turn in the worst recovery since WW II.
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Where is your data to back that up? That just sounds like you are parroting the usual baseless republican talking points.

Bullseye said:
Look at wat was happening in the last two years or so - that's what Trump received from Obama.
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Its misleading to say the “last two years” of unemployment figures were flat. If there was any flatness, it started in very late 2015. So we are talking about 1.25 years at most. But as i pointed out in another post, economic indicators like employment, typically lag behind policy on the order of months or years. Therefore I think its fair to attribute the huge drop in unemployment in the first quarter of 2017 to Obama.
 
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Integrityrespec said:
What a joke. Please explain the immediate rise in the economy and economic indicators upon the election of Trump.
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Have you been paying attention? My first three posts in this thread provide data and commentary which do precisely that! Go read them if you want more detail. Basically, the election of Trump did NOT change the overall trend that was already happening under Obama.
 
Where are those durn confidence fairys when you need em?
 
theLiquidGuy said:
I am cool with that. The problem is that conservative pundits and politicians are way too quick to credit Trump for everything good,in order to sell the public on re-electing him. Trumpism had virtually nothing to do with it. He inherited the trending economy and took credit for it, much like he inherited hundreds of millions from his dad -- and took credit for it. .
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This is an outright lie. When Fred Trump, Sr. passed all his real property titles passed to his wife by fact of law, tenants in the entirety, and tax free. For his properties in his own name, his wife was always on the deed, for his real estate brokerage and management company his wife's name was on every share of stock. Fred's net worth at the time he passed was between $250-310 mil, $240 mil in real property. The balance of his estate was divided equally between his wife, children and their heirs except for $1 mil for philanthropic donations. When his wife passed, her bequests were the equal division of her estate between her children and their heirs for those who of her children who pre-deceased her, except for $10 million donated to philanthropies, by which time the RE company net income had reached $60 mil annually, under the management control of Donald. More than ten times the net income flow under Fred.

The discrepancy in the estate value was caused by methods of determining the values of the distinct ownership of the RE company for the purposes of taxation. NYS has different methods for determining value than the IRS, NYS seeking to extract every possible penny from any estate subject to taxation. At the time of Fred's NYS included possible income flow for a future six years from corporate entities passed as part of an estate. That method was put to rest by future legislation as part of a settlement for Federal Court litigation.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Not by a whole lot in the historical context, keeping rates at historic lows because the markets are drunk on cheap credit and recently they cut it for a third time this year after a barrage of Trump Twitter Artillery demanding that they do so.
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You are slightly mistaken. The driving forces in the markets are the relatively lower rates of US taxation as compared to other nations, in essence making the US a tax haven. No matter how we examine the markets, foreign investment is the single major source of money effecting market prices, with greater competition for equities, bonds, and commodity futures. Margin purchasing, which does involve inexpensive credit, a practice mostly for traders rather than investors, effects well less than 20% of the overall markets. The other major source of money in the markets is composed mostly of American institutional investing, large pension funds, municipal investment funds, large union investment funds (like the teamsters and the teachers), as well as C corporate investment funds.
 
CaughtInThe said:
A big part of Donald Trump's strategy is simply to create chaos and then solve his own mess.

And there are actual adults dumb enough to fall for that.

I hope farmers and coal miners at least understand how big a liar he is.
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I don't know about coal miners, but the majority of farmers around me certainly have learned their lesson.

Except for one on the side of a grain storage facility, the only trump signs you see in this county are being used as target practice...
 
Chomsky said:
That's all the chart goes back. But please feel free to post it, if you've got it. Not that it can change much.
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Actually if I'm not mistaken it shows a dramatic rise...
 
theLiquidGuy said:
Very good question. I will answer: for the the $1.1 trillion deficit we get to enjoy the benefits of tax cuts for people who don’t need and probably mostly don’t even want it. Oh we also get corporate stock buy-backs. Hoooray! And now that we have such a terrible deficit we can’t even afford to discuss infrastructure. Thank God Trump did all this.
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He is after all the self proclaimed king of debt.

Cultists wanted him to run our nation like one of his businesses and he has. He has created debt that he has never had any intention of paying back, a d has enriched himself at the expense of the nation...
 
Lord of Planar said:
Congress has far more control than a president when it comes to the economy. The president signs or vetoes what they decide to put in place. I pointed this out just before the 2006 elections, what started happening then it was a sure thing the democrats would take congress.
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lol. from a purely left wing political conspiracy theory perspective; the "black guy got elected to turn our Recession around, just to rub it in", right wingers.
 
GDViking said:
I don't know about coal miners, but the majority of farmers around me certainly have learned their lesson.

Except for one on the side of a grain storage facility, the only trump signs you see in this county are being used as target practice...
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Those types of republicans complain about people from big cities and how horrible they are all the time then they turn around and give the keys to the country to a man who cannot get bank loan for a mattress.

Trump just fed right off of their emotions and rode that wave into the White House. They elected a criminal.
 
theLiquidGuy said:
Have you been paying attention? My first three posts in this thread provide data and commentary which do precisely that! Go read them if you want more detail. Basically, the election of Trump did NOT change the overall trend that was already happening under Obama.
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Business confidence soared when Trump was elected. It has continued and real dollar growth of median household income in 3 years under Trump is 5 times what it was in 8 years under Obama.

Google Image Result for https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2018/09/11/small-biz_wide-6b110858aba4be37716192679e3cc8d9b9cd77a8.png?s=1400
 
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