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These are what i believe to be the reasons why trump won in 2016 and why he will not win in 2020.

J

Joel

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THESE ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE REASONS WHY TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND WHY HE WILL NOT WIN IN 2020.

#1 Hillary had 25 years of political baggage, she could not overcome enough people's negative impression of her, whether justified or not...

#2 Her primary fight with Bernie turned nasty and his supporters stayed home on election day out of spite.

#3 Most of her party thought she already had the election in the bag, all the polls showed her comfortably winning, so many dems just were complacent and stayed home as well.

#4 Comey going public with the re-opening of the investigation into the email scandal just days before the election, if he had waited till after election day, that uneasiness the public felt about the whole matter may have dissipated.

#5 Trump's team went hard for the strategic electoral victory over the popular vote, and because of 1-4, it just happened to be enough to work. ..

#6 The biggest reason of all....Very few democrats and most independants did not take his chances of winning very seriously, and many more stayed home. That gave his very enthusiastic base the opportunity to win as they showed up in greater numbers where it counted than did the stay at home dems. .....................

Looking ahead to the 2020 election.... #1-5 were pretty specific to that election, and will not affect the outcome of the next one in measurable way......

The relevancy and importance of #6 however, cannot be overstated.

There is no other issue as important to the members of the Democratic party and those left leaning independents than the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.

There is no complacency to be found anywhere on the left, three years of Presidential decrees via 5 am tweet storms of misinformation have only added to the anger and the frustration of watching Trump seemingly get away with lawless act after lawless act, protected only by the office he holds,

waiting for the reckoning of an impeachment that seemed imminent for years but never materialized while watching him win at running down the clock,

The list of grievances against Trump is a long as the growing list of his lies that now total over well over a thousand,

Complacency on the part of a disinterested Democratic party sitting at home with their head in the sand will not be a factor in 2020, angry democrats storming to the polls, however, will.
 
1. I believe that Candidate Trump won for one reason: The Silent Majority was horrified by some of the events that occurred during the previous eight years under the 44th president.


2. I agree: the Dem candidate WILL win (with the assistance of not a few non-citizen votes).


a. I would not be surprised if President Trump, seeing the handwriting on the wall, finds a reason to withdraw.


3. Personally, I would be honored to vote for him again, but I do not have much hope of his winning because of the onslaught of four years of venomous opposition to him -- and his own character defects.
 
Joel said:
THESE ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE REASONS WHY TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND WHY HE WILL NOT WIN IN 2020.

#1 Hillary had 25 years of political baggage, she could not overcome enough people's negative impression of her, whether justified or not...

#2 Her primary fight with Bernie turned nasty and his supporters stayed home on election day out of spite.

#3 Most of her party thought she already had the election in the bag, all the polls showed her comfortably winning, so many dems just were complacent and stayed home as well.

#4 Comey going public with the re-opening of the investigation into the email scandal just days before the election, if he had waited till after election day, that uneasiness the public felt about the whole matter may have dissipated.

#5 Trump's team went hard for the strategic electoral victory over the popular vote, and because of 1-4, it just happened to be enough to work. ..

#6 The biggest reason of all....Very few democrats and most independants did not take his chances of winning very seriously, and many more stayed home. That gave his very enthusiastic base the opportunity to win as they showed up in greater numbers where it counted than did the stay at home dems. .....................

Looking ahead to the 2020 election.... #1-5 were pretty specific to that election, and will not affect the outcome of the next one in measurable way......

The relevancy and importance of #6 however, cannot be overstated.

There is no other issue as important to the members of the Democratic party and those left leaning independents than the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.

There is no complacency to be found anywhere on the left, three years of Presidential decrees via 5 am tweet storms of misinformation have only added to the anger and the frustration of watching Trump seemingly get away with lawless act after lawless act, protected only by the office he holds,

waiting for the reckoning of an impeachment that seemed imminent for years but never materialized while watching him win at running down the clock,

The list of grievances against Trump is a long as the growing list of his lies that now total over well over a thousand,

Complacency on the part of a disinterested Democratic party sitting at home with their head in the sand will not be a factor in 2020, angry democrats storming to the polls, however, will.
Click to expand...
I dont pretend to know what is going to happen over a year from now. I do think that anyone who thinks this is in the bag for either side is mistaken.

There is way too much thats undetermined right now. The primary thing is who the democrats are going to run. Until that is decided there is nothing to debate

The second thing is trumps job performance
Will the economy still be strong a year from now. If it is people are not gonna be easily persuaded to not stay the course.


Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
TheParser said:
1. I believe that Candidate Trump won for one reason: The Silent Majority was horrified by some of the events that occurred during the previous eight years under the 44th president.


2. I agree: the Dem candidate WILL win (with the assistance of not a few non-citizen votes).


a. I would not be surprised if President Trump, seeing the handwriting on the wall, finds a reason to withdraw.


3. Personally, I would be honored to vote for him again, but I do not have much hope of his winning because of the onslaught of four years of venomous opposition to him -- and his own character defects.
Click to expand...
Barring some catastrophic health issue there is no way he withdraws voluntarily

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
TheParser said:
1. I believe that Candidate Trump won for one reason: The Silent Majority was horrified by some of the events that occurred during the previous eight years under the 44th president.


2. I agree: the Dem candidate WILL win (with the assistance of not a few non-citizen votes).


a. I would not be surprised if President Trump, seeing the handwriting on the wall, finds a reason to withdraw.


3. Personally, I would be honored to vote for him again, but I do not have much hope of his winning because of the onslaught of four years of venomous opposition to him -- and his own character defects.
Click to expand...



1. I believe that Candidate Trump won for one reason: The Silent Majority was horrified by some of the events that occurred during the previous eight years under the 44th president.
Click to expand...





They couldn't figure it out after Obama's 1st term? Then Obama gets the second most votes in election history?


I agree: the Dem candidate WILL win (with the assistance of not a few non-citizen votes
Click to expand...
).

Pretend you're an illegal alien already getting what you want$$$$$$$. So much to risk by voting
 
democrats cannot be complacent. they will have to vote for whatever poor candidate that the DNC nominates, and i'm fairly convinced that the candidate will be less than ideal. independents who dislike Anus McPuckerface intensely are going to have to show up in numbers, too.
 
TheParser said:
1. I believe that Candidate Trump won for one reason: The Silent Majority was horrified by some of the events that occurred during the previous eight years under the 44th president.
Click to expand...
You're departing from the facts and reality if you believe that Trump supporters represent a majority.

The folks you are calling the "Silent Majority" are neither.
Most Americans (aka the majority) disapprove of Trump.
More Americans disapprove of Trump than have have disapproved of any other president.

Trump has magnificent and unprecedented disapproval ratings among Americans. [ I understand he polls with Russians though. Go figure. ]
TheParser said:
a. I would not be surprised if President Trump, seeing the handwriting on the wall, finds a reason to withdraw.
Click to expand...
I would be utterly shocked if Trump did anything remotely resembling this.
He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is capable of such a thing.

TheParser said:
3. Personally, I would be honored to vote for him again, but I do not have much hope of his winning because of the onslaught of four years of venomous opposition to him -- and his own character defects.
Click to expand...
Do you suppose that "his own character defects" and actions played any part in engendering the "venomous opposition to him"?
Or, did "venomous opposition to him" just materialize out of the thin air of some conspiracy of The Deep State™?
 
Why you shouldn't count Trump out just yet.

1. In the past 10-15 years, democrats have whined the loudest, and firmly have the manipulating media in their back pocket. Because of this, they have this thought process that there's 10 lefties for every 1 righty. Unfortunately for them, that's simply not the case.

2. Democrats have lurched further and further left. Compound that with their hatred of "anyone who doesn't think like I do is a racist" attitude. They have no qualms in alienating both the right, and the centrists. Groupthink does not allow for that.

3. Despite what the orange man tweets or says, the economy and unemployment statistics speak for themselves. All those end-of-the-world predictions 3 years ago never came true for the lefties.

4. The party who slammed their opponents for having "crusty old rich, white men" now have crusty old rich, white men leading the pack of candidates.

5. Even though it should be VERY easy to beat Trump, democrats continue to alienate the middle and right by doubling-down on the insane socialist/totalitarian rhetoric. They're internally killing their best candidates. Might as well dig out Hillary Clinton again, and prop her back up.


Next year, once again, the populace won't be voting for Trump. They'll be voting against the crazy democrat. Once again, the democrats won't figure out what went wrong, and will double-down even more.
 
Helix said:
democrats cannot be complacent. they will have to vote for whatever poor candidate that the DNC nominates, and i'm fairly convinced that the candidate will be less than ideal. independents who dislike Anus McPuckerface intensely are going to have to show up in numbers, too.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Of course voters shouldn't be complacent. Got out and vote, take a neighbor, take a friend. However,
vote for whatever poor candidate that the DNC nominates
Click to expand...
, that's what made a lot of independent voters and disgruntled Bernie fans go elsewhere, like 3rd party.
We mustn't think that party power is everything, and voting against someone doesn't make for a good platform. Voters with integrity and a keen interest what is best for our country shouldn't be taken for granted. Voting along party lines is easy, doesn't take much conviction. I get it, voting 3rd, we are told, is selling out and handing over the election. But look at it this way. If we have a candidate that we can get behind, we don't have to turn away.
You may think that, because of dislike for a sitting potus, voting for a slice of toast is the best option. Didn't work out so well last time. Think about it. Again, don't disregard independent voters. It isn't about party.
 
Lovebug said:
I disagree. Of course voters shouldn't be complacent. Got out and vote, take a neighbor, take a friend. However, , that's what made a lot of independent voters and disgruntled Bernie fans go elsewhere, like 3rd party.
We mustn't think that party power is everything, and voting against someone doesn't make for a good platform. Voters with integrity and a keen interest what is best for our country shouldn't be taken for granted. Voting along party lines is easy, doesn't take much conviction. I get it, voting 3rd, we are told, is selling out and handing over the election. But look at it this way. If we have a candidate that we can get behind, we don't have to turn away.
You may think that, because of dislike for a sitting potus, voting for a slice of toast is the best option. Didn't work out so well last time. Think about it. Again, don't disregard independent voters. It isn't about party.
Click to expand...

it isn't about party. it's about getting an immature psychopathic megalomaniac out of office before he can play war. that is the truth as plainly as i can put it.
 
Joel said:
THESE ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE REASONS WHY TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND WHY HE WILL NOT WIN IN 2020.

#1 Hillary had 25 years of political baggage, she could not overcome enough people's negative impression of her, whether justified or not...

#2 Her primary fight with Bernie turned nasty and his supporters stayed home on election day out of spite.

#3 Most of her party thought she already had the election in the bag, all the polls showed her comfortably winning, so many dems just were complacent and stayed home as well.

#4 Comey going public with the re-opening of the investigation into the email scandal just days before the election, if he had waited till after election day, that uneasiness the public felt about the whole matter may have dissipated.

#5 Trump's team went hard for the strategic electoral victory over the popular vote, and because of 1-4, it just happened to be enough to work. ..

#6 The biggest reason of all....Very few democrats and most independants did not take his chances of winning very seriously, and many more stayed home. That gave his very enthusiastic base the opportunity to win as they showed up in greater numbers where it counted than did the stay at home dems. .....................

Looking ahead to the 2020 election.... #1-5 were pretty specific to that election, and will not affect the outcome of the next one in measurable way......

The relevancy and importance of #6 however, cannot be overstated.

There is no other issue as important to the members of the Democratic party and those left leaning independents than the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.

There is no complacency to be found anywhere on the left, three years of Presidential decrees via 5 am tweet storms of misinformation have only added to the anger and the frustration of watching Trump seemingly get away with lawless act after lawless act, protected only by the office he holds,

waiting for the reckoning of an impeachment that seemed imminent for years but never materialized while watching him win at running down the clock,

The list of grievances against Trump is a long as the growing list of his lies that now total over well over a thousand,

Complacency on the part of a disinterested Democratic party sitting at home with their head in the sand will not be a factor in 2020, angry democrats storming to the polls, however, will.
Click to expand...

Some good points. However, let me point out a few flaws.
Hillary, it wasn't just her "baggage". It was lack of effort, lack of charisma, lack of listening to the people instead of listening to her advisors. People like to be heard. Ms Clinton was and is far removed from the concerns of average Americans. Her "I am woman" might have appealed to some, but many of us, while being all for a first woman potus, couldn't identify with her.
As for Dems not sitting home in 2020, that might be true. Just don't count out independent voters who can't identify with some of the more radical far left ideas being presented.
True, last time I would have gladly voted for Bernie, now he just comes across as a bitter old man. That turns off more people than just me. We will have to wait and see who the nominee will be. Biden I could get behind, because he doesn't come across as an extreme. Perhaps another, but other than that, I'll vote 3rd again and let my fellow Americans decide. What I can promise is this. No matter who will be in the WH, I will not resort to silly name calling. That might be fun before the election, but once the process is completed and the people have spoken, it will be Mr. or Mrs. President.
 
Helix said:
it isn't about party. it's about getting an immature psychopathic megalomaniac out of office before he can play war. that is the truth as plainly as i can put it.
Click to expand...

If Trump gets us into a war we will win.You will get tired of winning.
 
Helix said:
it isn't about party. it's about getting an immature psychopathic megalomaniac out of office before he can play war. that is the truth as plainly as i can put it.
Click to expand...

He just fired one who might have gotten us there. When he suggested we should bring our people back from the endless engagements, the left snickered. When he tries diplomacy with tyrants, the left snickered. All I see is AGAINST because or dislike for a person. That is very naive. We could instead cheer for diplomacy working, it being in our best interest. The right disregarded most of Obama's attempts and looked just as foolish, why repeat it?
 
Joel said:
THESE ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE REASONS WHY TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND WHY HE WILL NOT WIN IN 2020.

#1 Hillary had 25 years of political baggage, she could not overcome enough people's negative impression of her, whether justified or not...

#2 Her primary fight with Bernie turned nasty and his supporters stayed home on election day out of spite.

#3 Most of her party thought she already had the election in the bag, all the polls showed her comfortably winning, so many dems just were complacent and stayed home as well.

#4 Comey going public with the re-opening of the investigation into the email scandal just days before the election, if he had waited till after election day, that uneasiness the public felt about the whole matter may have dissipated.

#5 Trump's team went hard for the strategic electoral victory over the popular vote, and because of 1-4, it just happened to be enough to work. ..

#6 The biggest reason of all....Very few democrats and most independants did not take his chances of winning very seriously, and many more stayed home. That gave his very enthusiastic base the opportunity to win as they showed up in greater numbers where it counted than did the stay at home dems. .....................

Looking ahead to the 2020 election.... #1-5 were pretty specific to that election, and will not affect the outcome of the next one in measurable way......

The relevancy and importance of #6 however, cannot be overstated.

There is no other issue as important to the members of the Democratic party and those left leaning independents than the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.

There is no complacency to be found anywhere on the left, three years of Presidential decrees via 5 am tweet storms of misinformation have only added to the anger and the frustration of watching Trump seemingly get away with lawless act after lawless act, protected only by the office he holds,

waiting for the reckoning of an impeachment that seemed imminent for years but never materialized while watching him win at running down the clock,

The list of grievances against Trump is a long as the growing list of his lies that now total over well over a thousand,

Complacency on the part of a disinterested Democratic party sitting at home with their head in the sand will not be a factor in 2020, angry democrats storming to the polls, however, will.
Click to expand...

All of these are reasonable, but #4 is the most measurable, since her approval dropped solidly inside the margin of error once the letter was made public. It never recovered from the margin of error even after Comey said, "Whoops, our bad, lol."

But Democrats face severe handicaps in 2020, and therefore nobody should be staying home in smug confidence:

1)Republicans support Trump because he's horrible, while Democrats will support their candidate because he or she is good. Republicans have successfully shifted the discussion so that Democrats are compelled to defend their candidate while Trump's failings simply do not matter. The imbalance of that equation can't be overstated.
2)Russia will be openly interfering to get Trump re-elected, and will absolutely attempt to hack our voting machines. Republicans will do nothing to stop either.
3)Republicans will be working overtime to kick every demographic known to vote Democrat off the voting rolls. The voter suppression efforts will be monumental.

All three of these combined guarantee that the election won't be easy, completely regardless of how hated Trump is by the majority of the country.
 
Joel said:
the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.
Click to expand...


If only this were true. The Dems only need to field a moderate candidate, and Trump doesn't have a prayer. However, the Democratic party has just put up the most left-wing candidates
in the history of our country. Poll after poll shows that moderate voters do not like the extreme views held by this years candidates. Reparations, open boarders, free healthcare for immigrants, the Green New Deal. All losing ideas with moderate America...
 
Joel said:
THESE ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE REASONS WHY TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND WHY HE WILL NOT WIN IN 2020.

#1 Hillary had 25 years of political baggage, she could not overcome enough people's negative impression of her, whether justified or not...

#2 Her primary fight with Bernie turned nasty and his supporters stayed home on election day out of spite.

#3 Most of her party thought she already had the election in the bag, all the polls showed her comfortably winning, so many dems just were complacent and stayed home as well.

#4 Comey going public with the re-opening of the investigation into the email scandal just days before the election, if he had waited till after election day, that uneasiness the public felt about the whole matter may have dissipated.

#5 Trump's team went hard for the strategic electoral victory over the popular vote, and because of 1-4, it just happened to be enough to work. ..

#6 The biggest reason of all....Very few democrats and most independants did not take his chances of winning very seriously, and many more stayed home. That gave his very enthusiastic base the opportunity to win as they showed up in greater numbers where it counted than did the stay at home dems. .....................

Looking ahead to the 2020 election.... #1-5 were pretty specific to that election, and will not affect the outcome of the next one in measurable way......

The relevancy and importance of #6 however, cannot be overstated.

There is no other issue as important to the members of the Democratic party and those left leaning independents than the ability of their candidate to beat Trump, nothing else even comes close.

There is no complacency to be found anywhere on the left, three years of Presidential decrees via 5 am tweet storms of misinformation have only added to the anger and the frustration of watching Trump seemingly get away with lawless act after lawless act, protected only by the office he holds,

waiting for the reckoning of an impeachment that seemed imminent for years but never materialized while watching him win at running down the clock,

The list of grievances against Trump is a long as the growing list of his lies that now total over well over a thousand,

Complacency on the part of a disinterested Democratic party sitting at home with their head in the sand will not be a factor in 2020, angry democrats storming to the polls, however, will.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I feel like the shoe is on the other foot for Trump in 2020. Many of the advantages he enjoyed in 2016 are now Democrat advantages.
 
gino said:
If only this were true. The Dems only need to field a moderate candidate, and Trump doesn't have a prayer. However, the Democratic party has just put up the most left-wing candidates
in the history of our country. Poll after poll shows that moderate voters do not like the extreme views held by this years candidates. Reparations, open boarders, free healthcare for immigrants, the Green New Deal. All losing ideas with moderate America...
Click to expand...

Yes, but moderate voters dislike Donald Trump more than they dislike those extreme views. Trump was a terrible choice in 2016 for anyone who dislikes the extreme left. Just like voting for an extreme left candidate in 2020 will be a terrible choice for any who dislike the extreme right. The harder one pulls on the rubber band to the left or the right, the harder it snaps back in the other direction in 4 years time.
 
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