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Reality Check: The Sanders loss.

btthegreat

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First my bias. I ( an Oregon Dem) did not so much vote against Hillary ( she would have been competent, level headed and experienced as Pres. ), as I voted for Sanders in 2016 ( then Jill Stein) as protests against a coordinated but still unexposed effort by the Democratic party establishment to coronate Hillary. The Clinton 'donation' to the party and subsequent conflict of interest was still undisclosed, as was the Hillary 'right of refusal' for DNC campaign party Chair, but I felt something was amiss with the process and the party that created it.

So I get the anger. I share the outrage that the DNC begged for this conflict and fermented this toxic environment and division. The process was littered with a series of 'tilts' towards well funded mainstream established candidates, namely Clinton, But NOBODY 'fixed' this primary election result against Sanders. Nobody could. Its a series of 50 state contests set up the rules of which are determined by state parties so most of what constitutes evidence of 'rigging', happened long before anyone knew who the opposition to Clinton would be, including the 'front-loading' of red state primaries.

Fact is that the Clinton campaign had a campaign presence in each of these states from 2008. They knew the players, the rules, and had a gameplan and lawyers to use their influence to set up these contests to ensure an early nominee victory and unified convention, knowing that was most likely to be them. That was also representative of the thinking of the day. Unity early means less division at the convention and less loss treasure on the primary process. Nobody wanted another convention like 1968, or an other nominee like McGovern who lacked broad appeal beyond the base [Thus the increase in unpledged or 'superdelegates' from 12% in 2008 to 15% in 2016] It was the only campaign that was already on the ground and in the committee rooms when the rules were being decided and it was an easy sell.

No doubt that there were a series of biased statements by a few staffers DNC, or by established democratic operatives some decisions that impacted, in specific states and no doubt that there was a culture in the DNC that resented Sanders using this party as his personal tool to national prominence, treated Sanders as a joke, and a lightweight internally. He wasn't a 'real Democrat' and had no loyalty to it.

1.There was the effort in Brooklyn to purge voters, but those voters were older ones who had not voted in years, not newer registrants likely to vote for Sanders and that county went for Hillary as did every other one in the city. 'No rigging'
2. If we are to use the leaked emails of the DNC and other sources as evidence for scope and intent at the DNC , we must use the same trail to show limitations in scope an intent. So those emails showed so lousy ideas to 'tilt' including an effort to target Sanders faith in Kentucky, and they were shot down by superiors. No 'rigging' there!

3. There was a spat or two between the Sander campaign and the DNC but none that could have serious impact on voter behavior.

Now some facts. Clinton won 2842 delegates ( 59% ) of which 572 were unpledged, to Sanders 1865 (39%) of which 42 were unpledged. She won 34 contests to his 23 . She got around 16,950,000 (55%)votes to his 13,206,400(43%).
 
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More facts. Stats come from How Hillary Clinton Won the Democratic Nomination Over Bernie Sanders - WSJ.com I rounded up for convenience.
1.Clinton got 76% of the black vote while Sanders got 23% but they split the vote evenly among young blacks 45%Age and race in the 2016 Democratic primary | YouGov
2. In Open primaries, Sanders got 63% of the independent vote, while Clinton got 34%, but Clinton got 64% of registered Dems and 36% and there were a lot more of them

3. Breakdown by ideology. Very liberal 49% Clinton - 49% Sanders (equal split!) , somewhat liberal 56% Clinton -43% Sanders. Moderate 60% Clinton-37% Sanders. In no ideological category did Sanders have an advantage

4. Breakdown by Age. 17-29 Sanders 72% -Clinton 28%, but 65 or older reverses this 71% to 27% and we know that young folks just don't show up as reliably as older voters.

5. By education. Clinton will be the first percentage each time. High School or less 63%-35%, Some college 53%-46%, College Grad 53%-45%, Post Grad 60%-39%

6. Income. Clinton will be the first percentage each time because she won in the all. Under 50,000 60%-42%, 50,000-100,000 54%-45%, Over 100,000 58%-41%

She won in urban and suburban areas by huge margins, but she lost ground comparatively from 2008 against Obama in White Rural counties from 67% to 40% and college towns from 40% to 29% showing the weaknesses that would predict Trumps victory
 
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What's supposed to be the take away from this?

Hillary won the DNC nomination, and then lost to Donald Trump of all people. Some people who voted for Sanders voted third party or even for Trump. That didn't cost Hillary the win. Hillary lost because she ran a bad campaign and couldn't generate the voter turnout that Obama had.

If people wanted to vote third party, they should vote third party. It's not a "spoiler vote". The Republic only works if everyone votes for the candidate they believe will do the best job and best represents their political ideology, not for who is likely to win or not. There was blow-back on the DNC for the results of Hillary's campaign, that's fine. Democrats need to understand why they lost in 2016 and do a better job in 2020 if they want to win.
 
What's supposed to be the take away from this?

Hillary won the DNC nomination, and then lost to Donald Trump of all people. Some people who voted for Sanders voted third party or even for Trump. That didn't cost Hillary the win. Hillary lost because she ran a bad campaign and couldn't generate the voter turnout that Obama had.

If people wanted to vote third party, they should vote third party. It's not a "spoiler vote". The Republic only works if everyone votes for the candidate they believe will do the best job and best represents their political ideology, not for who is likely to win or not. There was blow-back on the DNC for the results of Hillary's campaign, that's fine. Democrats need to understand why they lost in 2016 and do a better job in 2020 if they want to win.

The take-away is that despite the Clinton juggernaut advantages funding, and campaign infrastructure, Sanders did not lose this nomination because of DNC rigging but because of his own weaknesses as a candidate. Obama faced the same 'coronation' but he won! Sanders lost in urban areas. He lost the black vote. He lost in suburbia. He lost older voters. He lost among moderate Dems and slightly liberal Dems and even very liberal Dems. He lost in every single economic class including the poor. You can't rely on caucus states and young college kids and independents who vote in open primaries, and then excuse your loss on a conspiracy of Superdelegates ( Clinton beat him by literally every measure as well) , Debbie Wasserman, and some staff in DNC headquarters who sent sneering emails to each other!
 
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What's supposed to be the take away from this?

Hillary won the DNC nomination, and then lost to Donald Trump of all people. Some people who voted for Sanders voted third party or even for Trump. That didn't cost Hillary the win. Hillary lost because she ran a bad campaign and couldn't generate the voter turnout that Obama had.

If people wanted to vote third party, they should vote third party. It's not a "spoiler vote". The Republic only works if everyone votes for the candidate they believe will do the best job and best represents their political ideology, not for who is likely to win or not. There was blow-back on the DNC for the results of Hillary's campaign, that's fine. Democrats need to understand why they lost in 2016 and do a better job in 2020 if they want to win.

agreed, I've always been a Green voter. Like I've heard you say before, "I'm done with the Republocrats." Trump changed my view. But, just listening to the Democrats now I'm even wavering on my commitment to support Joe Biden. I think I will ultimately throw in the towel and vote for him, but, I'm not going to be happy about it.
 
agreed, I've always been a Green voter. Like I've heard you say before, "I'm done with the Republocrats." Trump changed my view. But, just listening to the Democrats now I'm even wavering on my commitment to support Joe Biden. I think I will ultimately throw in the towel and vote for him, but, I'm not going to be happy about it.

I'm not convinced that Biden will come away with the nomination at this point, but I wouldn't vote for him even if he does. If the Republocrats want my vote, they're going to need to put up an exceptional candidate.
 
I'm not convinced that Biden will come away with the nomination at this point, but I wouldn't vote for him even if he does. If the Republocrats want my vote, they're going to need to put up an exceptional candidate.

I'm not convinced either but, hearing him speak about virtually any topic makes my skin crawl.
 
agreed, I've always been a Green voter. Like I've heard you say before, "I'm done with the Republocrats." Trump changed my view. But, just listening to the Democrats now I'm even wavering on my commitment to support Joe Biden. I think I will ultimately throw in the towel and vote for him, but, I'm not going to be happy about it.
You don't necessarily have to . I voted for Stein because I knew that in Oregon, I could afford to be a conscientious objector to the coronation, and not impact Clinton's chances. It will depend on how 'blue' your state is. I wouldn't take the risk in Ohio or Pennsylvania!

I won't vote for either Sanders or Biden in the primaries. I don't like reheated leftovers. Not super concerned about ideological differences either. Whether it is a progressive or moderate, they will have to negotiate with a Congress that is not progressive, so the result is not going to be some far left legislations that makes us bathe in progressive light.

I want electability in a candidate. I don't know which way that will lead me.
 
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You don't necessarily have to . I voted for Stein because I knew that in Oregon, I could afford to be a conscientious objector to the coronation, and not impact Clinton's chances. It will depend on how 'blue' your state is. I wouldn't take the risk in Ohio or Pennsylvania!

I won't vote for either Sanders or Biden in the primaries. I don't like reheated leftovers. Not super concerned about ideological differences either. Whether it is a progressive or moderate, they will have to negotiate with a Congress that is not progressive, so the result is not going to be some far left legislations that makes us bathe in progressive light.

I want electability in a candidate. I don't know which way that will lead me.

I understand that cosmetically another presidential run sounds like reheated leftovers. But, substantively, if Sanders policies are the same, that is one of his strongest selling points. I didn't stop supporting Medicare for all or a living wage. So, I wouldn't change candidates just because a new Season is airing.

As for Biden, he's just awful.

There's basically only two candidates I'm enthusiastic about and that's Bernie and Tulsi Gabbard. I know both of them have principles and they don't make decisions on what's best for their careers, rather they make decisions based upon what they believe is right and wrong. I happen to agree with their assessment of right and wrong. And I'll support those two. The others, not so much. Gravel entering is intriguing too.

What are Tom Steyer's policies?
 
I understand that cosmetically another presidential run sounds like reheated leftovers. But, substantively, if Sanders policies are the same, that is one of his strongest selling points. I didn't stop supporting Medicare for all or a living wage. So, I wouldn't change candidates just because a new Season is airing.

As for Biden, he's just awful.

There's basically only two candidates I'm enthusiastic about and that's Bernie and Tulsi Gabbard. I know both of them have principles and they don't make decisions on what's best for their careers, rather they make decisions based upon what they believe is right and wrong. I happen to agree with their assessment of right and wrong. And I'll support those two. The others, not so much. Gravel entering is intriguing too.

What are Tom Steyer's policies?
You can't really get Sanders policies through Congress anyway, so I will settle for a derivative. The good news, is thanks to Sanders, you can have pretty much the same product without the same brand. Warren and Harris are not far away except they aren't embracing that Social Democrat label which will still be troubling to many, and Warren is very specific about her platform.
 
You can't really get Sanders policies through Congress anyway, so I will settle for a derivative. The good news, is thanks to Sanders, you can have pretty much the same product without the same brand. Warren and Harris are not far away, and Warren is very specific about her platform.

I don't trust either of them. Bernie's the only one I trust. Harris and Warren are careerists. Bernie is an activist.

Anyway, I'll vote for Harris or Warren, gladly. I just won't be operating under any delusion like I was in 2008, that an establishment Dem is going to do anything different.

Change on the outside, continuity on the inside. For that reason Trump is a magnificent candidate for the GOP.
 
I don't trust either of them. Bernie's the only one I trust. Harris and Warren are careerists. Bernie is an activist.

Anyway, I'll vote for Harris or Warren, gladly. I just won't be operating under any delusion like I was in 2008, that an establishment Dem is going to do anything different.
Huh
Change on the outside, continuity on the inside. For that reason Trump is a magnificent candidate for the GOP.
Not that I mind careerists, but this is utter bull****. How long has Sanders been in paid political office? Since 1981 when he was elected Mayor of Burlington which he retained for 3 terms. He left in 1989 and spent a year lecturing on political science at Harvard He went directly into the US House in 1990 and stayed there for 16 years until he got elected to the Senate in 2006. Political office has been his career, paying his bills, and providing his income for over 36 years. He is now worth 3.5 billion and just invested in a 700,OO0 beach house. That did not come from his carpentry work or is activism. That is the very definition of a 'careerist'.
.
 
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Not that I mind careerists, but this is utter bull****. How long has Sanders been in paid political office? Since 1981 when he was elected Mayor of Burlington which he retained for 3 terms. He left in 1989 and spent a year lecturing on political science at Harvard He went directly into the US House in 1990 and stayed there for 16 years until he got elected to the Senate in 2006. Political office has been his career, paying his bills, and providing his income for over 36 years. He is now worth 3.5 billion and just invested in a 700,OO0 beach house. That did not come from his carpentry work or is activism. That is the very definition of a 'careerist'.
.

But he spent his career challenging the power structure. That's why his message is so credible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
But he spent his career challenging the power structure. That's why his message is so credible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Absolutely! He's a gadfly always challenging the norms of power and ideological conformity. We need more of those in Congress and the country benefits from hearing that undiluted pure ideological message. I admire his tenacity and his uncompromising vision. If I were a voter in Vermont, I sure would keep him there as long as he was willing.
 
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The take-away is that despite the Clinton juggernaut advantages funding, and campaign infrastructure, Sanders did not lose this nomination because of DNC rigging but because of his own weaknesses as a candidate. Obama faced the same 'coronation' but he won! Sanders lost in urban areas. He lost the black vote. He lost in suburbia. He lost older voters. He lost among moderate Dems and slightly liberal Dems and even very liberal Dems. He lost in every single economic class including the poor. You can't rely on caucus states and young college kids and independents who vote in open primaries, and then excuse your loss on a conspiracy of Superdelegates ( Clinton beat him by literally every measure as well) , Debbie Wasserman, and some staff in DNC headquarters who sent sneering emails to each other!

This is not supported. Sanders lost because he had a slow start. He did OK in New Hampshire and Iowa, but got crushed in South Carolina.

It's not surprising that Hillary lost to Trump. Sanders was supposed to be a punching bag. All the heavy weight candidates (eg Warren) had taken a pass. No one took Bernie seriously until he proved that he had grass roots appeal. Trump was elected by grass roots. Much of his base is people both parties neglected or outright despised.
 
BT, Winston, even Ikari, all excellent points but in the long run the objective is to remake the Democratic Party so that it is once again a "liberal party" and not some outdated and somewhat toxic neoliberal/neocon/corporate crony club.
And that takes a lot of time and some continuous effort.

We've now shoehorned more progressive lawmakers into the party than at any time since Roosevelt.
It's not yet enough to overturn the establishment but as one can clearly see, it's enough to make them nervous.
I think a few of you have forgotten that Nancy doesn't intend to keep her reign going for more than another year or two, so the time is coming when the torch will be passed and 2020 will determine who it gets passed to.

Parties get retooled and rebooted all the time, and the Democratic Party is no exception.
Patience and perseverance.

If I have to vote for Biden, I'll hold my nose, but it's true...we can do much better.
Someone mentioned a Biden/Warren ticket. That might improve the nasty taste of Biden's iced tea.
I won't comment on Stein because it wouldn't be pleasant.
 
This is not supported. Sanders lost because he had a slow start. He did OK in New Hampshire and Iowa, but got crushed in South Carolina.

It's not surprising that Hillary lost to Trump. Sanders was supposed to be a punching bag. All the heavy weight candidates (eg Warren) had taken a pass. No one took Bernie seriously until he proved that he had grass roots appeal. Trump was elected by grass roots. Much of his base is people both parties neglected or outright despised.
Not sure exactly what you are taking issue with in my post. What you say, and what I say actually coincide. The real problem with this 2016 primary, happened long before the first vote was cast. The Hillary Clinton campaign had all the advantages of our process reserves for an incumbency, without the disadvantages of one. She had the nationwide connections, the 50 state campaign presence, the four year head start on fundraising, and name familiarity and popularity of a First Couple to do all this work, without either one of them being stuck in the oval office, forced into potentially unpopular executive decisions. She resigned as Secretary in 2013 after staying just long enough to gain that international gravitas that nobody else in 2016 had.

Every other potential candidate besides O'Malley, was scared off by the sheer magnitude of the challenge. Its like entering poker game and starting with a third less chips than the most experienced player at the table. The Democratic party establishment was complicit in handing Bill and Hillary even more chips because everyone knew them, felt the party was in safe reliable and electable hands post Obama. Sanders who was seen as a joke, but he did not care, because his goal initially probably had less to do with the office, than what he was trying to communicate with the megaphone the race represented.

Well as it happens in history, that great recession made the country angry, and distrustful of the two party hegemony and sick and tired of 'establishment' answers to questions that appeared to fail everyone! So we needed the most open, competitive and diverse primary process, when we had shut the door and locked out 95% of our talent. All anyone saw was a mountain of debt and headache, for near zero chance of success. Had we had a real debate in our party with even 6 candidates of diverse ideologies and experiences, that were able to sustain a real campaign half way through the primaries, we might have had time to self correct for an anti-establishment mood without this absurd Clinton or Sanders choice.

It wasn't that it was 'rigged' for the Clintons per se, but by every measure, they saw to it that they maximize every advantage they had , hired the best local campaign talent, for years to influence how these 50 contests would be shaped, and they knew every nuance and every turn, and every personality along the journey, and the Party did not see what a potential disaster there could be.
 
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