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Thread: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

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    The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Summary: A wall would reduce illegal immigration by a fraction of a third. Over the course of many years, it would reduce the illegal immigrant population by a fraction of that fraction. Therefore, a wall would be ineffective.

    Derivation:
    Around 300,000 are apprehended by year crossing the border. The border control claims to catch 80%; others claim they only catch 50%. At most, that would imply that 150,000 get through. Every year, about 500,000 who came here legally become illegal immigrants by not leaving when they are scheduled to. In other words, two thirds of new illegal immigrants are a result of over stays. Additionally, over 11 million illegal immigrants are already here. A wall isn't going to make them leave; about 17x as many illegal immigrants are already as enter per year.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...-be-effective/

    Others agree with my math (for 2017):
    "It also projected that overstays made up about two-thirds of the total number of people who became unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. that year."
    https://www.politifact.com/californi...lf-all-people/


    You have a 2,000 mile long border; understaffed; it can and is tunneled under; people are smuggled through check points; they can go around the land border by sea.

    Most existing barriers are in the west, and they have gradually expanded eastward. Concurrent to this, migration traffic has shifted eastward. Concurrent to this, proportionally speaking border crossings have become less common and over stays more common. In effect, walls have been effective at changing illegal immigration methods, but not at eliminating illegal immigration.

    Note, i'm not saying it shouldn't be built. It is very important to Trump and his supporters and can be used to get substantive concessions on other issues, such as the dreamers. But it isn't a decisive fix the way that going after employers would be. In general, it is easier to control the behavior of those who have a lot to lose.
    Last edited by Yarn; 01-06-19 at 08:49 PM.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    I don't think anyone made the argument that immigration levels will remain unchanged.

    This entire thread is a complete strawman...

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Quote Originally Posted by Hedgology View Post
    I don't think anyone made the argument that immigration levels will remain unchanged.

    This entire thread is a complete strawman...
    I'm arguing with those who say a wall would be very successful.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Quote Originally Posted by Yarn View Post
    I'm arguing with those who say a wall would be very successful.
    The purpose of a wall is to act as a barrier to prevent foreign objects on the opposing side. As long as it does this, it will be successful.

    There is very little argument to the convary that states an opposing purpose.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    One thing I would say and I certainly could be wrong and this post, mainly pertains to drugs more than anything else.

    But if "The Wall", in whatever iteration it possibly may come to be, does something to stem illegal immigration and drugs, all that will happen then in my view, is it will make drug and people trafficking more difficult, but also probably more expensive and so, more lucrative, making more criminals richer, the more money they get, the more they can destabilize and corrupt Mexico and Central American countries, the more people will flow to the US in search of a better life.

    It's been shown, for decades now, the drug trade cannot be beaten, only a small percentage of drugs are intercepted and come in, every which way you can imagine, with many Americans themselves helping to do the smuggling.

    People trafficking/migration may be a different story in all that and someone may say well, are you saying we shouldn't fight these things at all then?

    No, that's not what I mean, but there are no easy solutions, there are no silver bullets that solve all the problems and sometimes things that seem a simple solution that seems like a good idea can have unintended consequences and on the issue of drugs, more than any other, unless Americans give up their appetite for illicit drugs, no wall, nothing, will stop it.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Quote Originally Posted by Hedgology View Post
    The purpose of a wall is to act as a barrier to prevent foreign objects on the opposing side. As long as it does this, it will be successful.

    There is very little argument to the convary that states an opposing purpose.
    I could walk around on side walks and collect pennies off the concrete. Yes, technically i'd make money, but I wouldn't consider it an effective way of making money. Scope/scale matters.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Quote Originally Posted by Yarn View Post
    I could walk around on side walks and collect pennies off the concrete. Yes, technically i'd make money, but I wouldn't consider it an effective way of making money. Scope/scale matters.
    Your analogy fails to make an argument against the effectiveness of a wall.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    Quote Originally Posted by Yarn View Post
    Summary: A wall would reduce illegal immigration by a fraction of a third. Over the course of many years, it would reduce the illegal immigrant population by a fraction of that fraction. Therefore, a wall would be ineffective.

    Derivation:
    Around 300,000 are apprehended by year crossing the border. The border control claims to catch 80%; others claim they only catch 50%. At most, that would imply that 150,000 get through. Every year, about 500,000 who came here legally become illegal immigrants by not leaving when they are scheduled to. In other words, two thirds of new illegal immigrants are a result of over stays. Additionally, over 11 million illegal immigrants are already here. A wall isn't going to make them leave; about 17x as many illegal immigrants are already as enter per year.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...-be-effective/

    Others agree with my math (for 2017):
    "It also projected that overstays made up about two-thirds of the total number of people who became unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. that year."
    https://www.politifact.com/californi...lf-all-people/


    You have a 2,000 mile long border; understaffed; it can and is tunneled under; people are smuggled through check points; they can go around the land border by sea.

    Most existing barriers are in the west, and they have gradually expanded eastward. Concurrent to this, migration traffic has shifted eastward. Concurrent to this, proportionally speaking border crossings have become less common and over stays more common. In effect, walls have been effective at changing illegal immigration methods, but not at eliminating illegal immigration.

    Note, i'm not saying it shouldn't be built. It is very important to Trump and his supporters and can be used to get substantive concessions on other issues, such as the dreamers. But it isn't a decisive fix the way that going after employers would be. In general, it is easier to control the behavior of those who have a lot to lose.
    If it works at all it will be more successful than not having it at all.

    But you list millions who are currently here illegally. It would seem a forlorn hope to find and deport those who may have come from the south (apparently the vast majority judging by the border State demographic changes), when they could just walk back across with no barrier. Much easier for both them and illegal residents from elsewhere who, if shipped back overseas could just come back and enter in through the southern border too.

    I personally would prefer strict immigration laws enforced rapidly and without exception, coupled with properly and clearly defining birthright citizenship as limited to the children of citizens or those who are legal alien residents themselves seeking naturalization.

    But absent this, a wall would stem some of the tide coming in and inhibit the ability of those who are deported from returning.
    If I stop responding it doesn't mean I've conceded the point or agree with you. It only means I've made my point and I don't mind you having the last word. Please wait a few minutes before "quoting" me. I often correct errors for a minute or two after I post before the final product is ready.

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    When you use the argument that a wall is ineffective while simultaneously favoring sanctuary states/cities it just comes off as being ridiculous. I agree that trying to reduce illegal immigration or contraband inside the country without doing anything effective about the demand side then you are doomed to fail. That being said, should we remove the existing border barriers or the fence around the White House? Physical barriers are part of a security system - not the entire security system.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: The Border Wall Would Be Ineffective

    I sometimes get the idea that some people think that the wall would replace all other methods for protecting the border, e.g. no more patrols, or drones, or cameras. Not the case. The wall is an addition to border security, not the only thing. Walls work every where else as a security measure coupled with surveillance and patrol, why would they work on the border? AND understand it won't be 100% effective, just far more effective than the current set up.

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