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Could a Manafort pardon sway Trump support?

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CriticalThought

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This truly would make Trump exactly like any other swampy politician. Manafort is not a "good man" he is a criminal in every sense of the word. Not just because of not paying his taxes and committing fraud but because he sold himself out to corrupt foriegn actors. He is representative of everything Trump claims he hates. Manafort is not patriotic and clearly does not give a crap about his country. He is as much swamp as you can get. But if Trump pardons him the mental gymnastics his supporters will have to go through to convince themselves Trump isn't a slimeball who conned them into thinking he had their interests at heart, will likely cause some heads to explode.
 
I don't think he will...but in all honesty it would seriously erode my support.

Not necessarily because I think it would prove collusion, but simply because it would clearly be blatant political patronage/favoritism.
 
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Captain Adverse said:
I don't think he will...but in all honesty it would seriously erode my support.

Not necessarily because I think it would prove collusion, but simply because it would clearly be blatant political corruption.
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Good to know, esp. since there's been absolutely NO 'blatant poilitical corruption' associated with this administration whatsoever.
 
Tanngrisnir said:
Good to know, esp. since there's been absolutely NO 'blatant poilitical corruption' associated with this administration whatsoever.
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...and THIS is why so many people who might disagree with some policies or actions hesitate to bring them up.

You can't agree with things he's done while disagreeing with others.

To die-hard Administration opponents, it is ALL or NOTHING. :roll:
 
Here's some facts regarding Manafort's guilty plea. First of all, he's going to be awaiting sentencing in prison and whether or not he's allowed to post bond is questionable. Nevertheless, while he's awaiting sentencing he's going to be subjected to being questioned not only by Mueller's team but any other law enforcement agency, and all without his lawyers being present.

I have the exact wording of the 'cooperation' statement in the guilty plea deal.

"Your client shall cooperate fully, truthfully, completely, and forthrightly with the Government and other law enforcement authorities identified by the Government 'in any and all matters' as to which the Government deems the cooperation relevant"

If Manafort isn't straightforward and absolutely honest with the information he provides to the FBI, not only will he be charged with obstruction in addition to the other charges, but he will AUTOMATICALLY be found guilty of every charge against him in the D.C. trial that would have been taking place if he hadn't pleaded guilty. But, how does the FBI know whether or not he's telling the truth? I believe they already know what the facts are and thanks to the Patriot Act they may have already been monitoring all meetings between Russian foreign nationals and U.S. businessmen including the Trump Tower meeting.

If all this comes out, there will be more indictments, Don Jr and Jared Kushner. If all of this doesn't sway Trump's base, then nothing will.
 
By the time a pardon ever happens, Trump's base will have been primed to accept it as perfectly reasonable in light of how horrible the opposition to Trump has been.

Probably a pardon will not happen. It's too late. With all the other dominoes falling around Trump, Manafort watched Trump's cachet dwindling along with his own pocket book and he had to make a practical decision. So, that decision having been made, by now Trump is stewing about Manafort turning on him after all the nice things he said about Manafort. The pardon ship has sailed.

When Trump pardons Don Jr. and Jared is when the "what else was he supposed to do" self-talk will start playing into Trump supporters shifting to a state of mind which will allow them to accept that latest corrupt development and continue to full-throatedly support Trump.
 
Captain Adverse said:
...and THIS is why so many people who might disagree with some policies or actions hesitate to bring them up.

You can't agree with things he's done while disagreeing with others.

To die-hard Administration opponents, it is ALL or NOTHING. :roll:
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No, that's simply more dishonest and disengenuous bull**** on your part.

This administation, by any rational measure, is corrupt and grifting like nothing else in US history.

You can't face that fact.

That's your calling card.
 
Captain Adverse said:
...and THIS is why so many people who might disagree with some policies or actions hesitate to bring them up.

You can't agree with things he's done while disagreeing with others.

To die-hard Administration opponents, it is ALL or NOTHING. :roll:
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I feel for you here, Captain. You can't win for trying! :doh
 
CriticalThought said:
This truly would make Trump exactly like any other swampy politician. Manafort is not a "good man" he is a criminal in every sense of the word. Not just because of not paying his taxes and committing fraud but because he sold himself out to corrupt foriegn actors. He is representative of everything Trump claims he hates. Manafort is not patriotic and clearly does not give a crap about his country. He is as much swamp as you can get. But if Trump pardons him the mental gymnastics his supporters will have to go through to convince themselves Trump isn't a slimeball who conned them into thinking he had their interests at heart, will likely cause some heads to explode.
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- The Dems are already there against Trump, so there's no further away for them to go.

- The Indies are already fading from Trump, and a pardon would cause an accelerated exodus.

- I believe most of Trump's hardcore would stay with him, but he will lose some moderate amount of the non-hardcore Trump GOP. He's already lost some, as can be seen by the Republican Party having shrunk 2-3 percent under Trump.

But I think the successful pardon window may have closed for Trump. Manafort is just too hardcore of a criminal, guilty of too many egregious felonious counts. And now that he's cooperating with Mueller, the politics may no longer be there for Trump.

And let's face this fact: Manafort took $60M to assist enemy nations against the interests of the United States. He laundered and hid $30M evading taxes. That evasion cost the U.S. taxpayers $15M. Manafort is too damn serious a criminal against the U.S. to justify a pardon. I don't see Trump getting away with it, anymore.
 
HumblePi said:
Here's some facts regarding Manafort's guilty plea. First of all, he's going to be awaiting sentencing in prison and whether or not he's allowed to post bond is questionable. Nevertheless, while he's awaiting sentencing he's going to be subjected to being questioned not only by Mueller's team but any other law enforcement agency, and all without his lawyers being present.

I have the exact wording of the 'cooperation' statement in the guilty plea deal.

"Your client shall cooperate fully, truthfully, completely, and forthrightly with the Government and other law enforcement authorities identified by the Government 'in any and all matters' as to which the Government deems the cooperation relevant"

If Manafort isn't straightforward and absolutely honest with the information he provides to the FBI, not only will he be charged with obstruction in addition to the other charges, but he will AUTOMATICALLY be found guilty of every charge against him in the D.C. trial that would have been taking place if he hadn't pleaded guilty. But, how does the FBI know whether or not he's telling the truth? I believe they already know what the facts are and thanks to the Patriot Act they may have already been monitoring all meetings between Russian foreign nationals and U.S. businessmen including the Trump Tower meeting.

If all this comes out, there will be more indictments, Don Jr and Jared Kushner. If all of this doesn't sway Trump's base, then nothing will.
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It’s amazing the arrogance one needs to talk about “indictments” that have not happened as is they were “facts” when you have nothing but big expectations and the people in your bubble competing for the microphone to see who can yell the loudest!
 
I have a feeling that the Trump and Kushner families aren't the only ones not sleeping very well these days. I'm pretty sure there will be at least one, if not more, Senators involved in this hijacking of the government. But we'll find out eventually whether I'm right or wrong on this one.
 
chuckiechan said:
It’s amazing the arrogance one needs to talk about “indictments” that have not happened as is they were “facts” when you have nothing but big expectations and the people in your bubble competing for the microphone to see who can yell the loudest!
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'Arrogance'? How is stating facts arrogant? I don't think you recognize what facts are any longer, so that would make you the arrogant one. To remind you of what I said, I clearly said "IF indictments come out"
 
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HumblePi said:
'Arrogance'? How is stating facts arrogant? I don't think you recognize what facts are any longer, so that would make you the arrogant one.
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Aw, gee. Don't talk about the indictments which haven't happened yet. Just talk about the boatload of indictments which are already in the can.

I mean, it's not like the right spent the last 6 years talking about when Hillary was going to be indicted ....

.... oh wait, never mind.
 
HumblePi said:
I have a feeling that the Trump and Kushner families aren't the only ones not sleeping very well these days. I'm pretty sure there will be at least one, if not more, Senators involved in this hijacking of the government. But we'll find out eventually whether I'm right or wrong on this one.
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And there will be a ton of unregistered Russian/Ukrainian lobbyists, political operatives, agents, and the occasional Oligarch or two that's not sleeping well - either.

Manafort knows this Russian thing inside-and-out, from both sides of the fence. In fact, he's the prototype, leader, and standard bearer of Russian political operators and influence peddlers.

Trump claimed he would clean-out the swamp. Little did he know ... ! :mrgreen:
 
CriticalThought said:
This truly would make Trump exactly like any other swampy politician. Manafort is not a "good man" he is a criminal in every sense of the word. Not just because of not paying his taxes and committing fraud but because he sold himself out to corrupt foriegn actors. He is representative of everything Trump claims he hates. Manafort is not patriotic and clearly does not give a crap about his country. He is as much swamp as you can get. But if Trump pardons him the mental gymnastics his supporters will have to go through to convince themselves Trump isn't a slimeball who conned them into thinking he had their interests at heart, will likely cause some heads to explode.
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**** his supporters. They're not relevant to the discussion.
 
Captain Adverse said:
I don't think he will...but in all honesty it would seriously erode my support.

Not necessarily because I think it would prove collusion, but simply because it would clearly be blatant political patronage/favoritism.
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"Erode support" is meaningless in the absence of an alternate action (e.g. saying you'll vote for Democrats if he does this). "Erode support" is effectively no different than "I find his words troubling." It's a soundbite with no teeth and no relevance.
 
Cardinal said:
"Erode support" is meaningless in the absence of an alternate action (e.g. saying you'll vote for Democrats if he does this). "Erode support" is effectively no different than "I find his words troubling." It's a soundbite with no teeth and no relevance.
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Excuse me, what was the thread question? Let me refresh your memory:

"Could a Manafort pardon sway Trump support?"

My response was appropriate. :coffeepap:
 
Could a Manafort pardon sway Trump support?
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i doubt it. we're dealing with a cult now. they have to be crushed at the polls.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Excuse me, what was the thread question? Let me refresh your memory:

"Could a Manafort pardon sway Trump support?"

My response was appropriate. :coffeepap:
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"Swaying" or "eroding support" can suggest a very different thing when applied to his political base overall. In other words, it could be taken to mean that the approval numbers could come down, which could be predictive of an election outcome in the midterms or the 2020 election. However, if it erodes the support of a single individual, that's entirely meaningless because what level of support were you starting with and where did it end up? Did it go from 99.6% support down to 99.3%. 87% down to 1%?

As we witnessed every single time a Senator would call Trump's comment "troubling," it never actually resulted in any call for increased oversight or investigations, so in the end, the Senator's feeling that the comment was "troubling" effectively meant nothing at all since we were given no base line.

So what percentage of support are you starting with and where would the percentage be after Trump granted the hypothetical pardon to Manafort? What would the resulting percentage have to be to change your positions on this forum, and what would it have to be in order to alter your voting decisions?

If you're unable or unwilling to answer these questions in detail, then you can understand why I'd say that your "erode support" comment is meaningless.
 
Cardinal said:
"Swaying" or "eroding support" can suggest a very different thing when applied to his political base overall. In other words, it could be taken to mean that the approval numbers could come down, which could be predictive of an election outcome in the midterms or the 2020 election. However, if it erodes the support of a single individual, that's entirely meaningless because what level of support were you starting with and where did it end up? Did it go from 99.6% support down to 99.3%. 87% down to 1%?

As we witnessed every single time a Senator would call Trump's comment "troubling," it never actually resulted in any call for increased oversight or investigations, so in the end, the Senator's feeling that the comment was "troubling" effectively meant nothing at all since we were given no base line.

So what percentage of support are you starting with and where would the percentage be after Trump granted the hypothetical pardon to Manafort? What would the resulting percentage have to be to change your positions on this forum, and what would it have to be in order to alter your voting decisions?

If you're unable or unwilling to answer these questions in detail, then you can understand why I'd say that your "erode support" comment is meaningless.
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Hmmm...well, in THAT case let me think. :think:

How about... what the devil kind of answer do you think you deserve?

I am not about to commit myself to any such "measurement" until I experience whatever actual outcome occurs.

The OP is a hypothetical. IF Trump pardoned Manafort... that's a big IF, and for what would he be pardon Manafort for is another big IF.

Now I have been willing to continue to argue my case in support of the Administration despite some misgivings simply because I see much good coming out that many of you on the other side refuse to see.

You choose to see only bad, and expect those of us who don't to start doing so or be labeled "delusional" (to say the least.)

But let me give you an example of my actual swaying. I was a Nixon supporter right up until the Tapes showed he was involved in the Watergate conspiracy. I advocated for his impeachment then too.

In THIS case, it would depend on what Manafort was pardoned for. His actual money-laundering crimes? Or maybe just his lying to a government official. Until it happens, IF it ever does, then I'll know how far I'll be swayed.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Hmmm...well, in THAT case let me think. :think:

How about... what the devil kind of answer do you think you deserve?

I am not about to commit myself to any such "measurement" until I experience whatever actual outcome occurs.

The OP is a hypothetical. IF Trump pardoned Manafort... that's a big IF, and for what would he be pardon Manafort for is another big IF.

Now I have been willing to continue to argue my case in support of the Administration despite some misgivings simply because I see much good coming out that many of you on the other side refuse to see.

You choose to see only bad, and expect those of us who don't to start doing so or be labeled "delusional" (to say the least.)

But let me give you an example of my actual swaying. I was a Nixon supporter right up until the Tapes showed he was involved in the Watergate conspiracy. I advocated for his impeachment then too.

In THIS case, it would depend on what Manafort was pardoned for. His actual money-laundering crimes? Or maybe just his lying to a government official. Until it happens, IF it ever does, then I'll know how far I'll be swayed.
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Full pardon. That's the point.
 
CriticalThought said:
This truly would make Trump exactly like any other swampy politician. Manafort is not a "good man" he is a criminal in every sense of the word. Not just because of not paying his taxes and committing fraud but because he sold himself out to corrupt foriegn actors. He is representative of everything Trump claims he hates. Manafort is not patriotic and clearly does not give a crap about his country. He is as much swamp as you can get. But if Trump pardons him the mental gymnastics his supporters will have to go through to convince themselves Trump isn't a slimeball who conned them into thinking he had their interests at heart, will likely cause some heads to explode.
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Isn't your question a little on the "ignorant" side what with Manafort's plea deal?

According to every liberal on this board, Trump and his whole family are definitely done in now that Manafort is ready to spill the beans to Mueller.
If it's so sure that Manafort is gonna deliver Trump and Co to Mueller, why would Trump even consider a pardon for Manafort?!?

Beside that question, Trump can no longer pardon Manafort anyway.
 
Captain Adverse said:
I don't think he will...but in all honesty it would seriously erode my support.

Not necessarily because I think it would prove collusion, but simply because it would clearly be blatant political patronage/favoritism.
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I'm a bit torn how I would feel if he did. It would depend on if the punishment fit the crime or not. Manfrotto has already paid a pretty severe price for his crimes while others involved are being offered immunity for the same crimes. If he isn't being treated the same as everyone else due to politics than maybe it requires a political remedy to put things right. As I said I'm undecided on how I feel about a pardon.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
I don't support plenty of the president's agenda, but if he pardon's Manafort, I will withdraw all support.

I voted for Bernie, fyi.
 
Helix said:
i doubt it. we're dealing with a cult now. they have to be crushed at the polls.
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Don't see that happening. The Hill reported this morning that Ted Cruz has jumped 9 points ahead of Beto O'Rourke, despite the fact that the other day, they were neck and neck. Battleground states like this seemingly have their finger on the pulse of the rest of the country.
 
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